A case study of landslides and coping strategies in two villages of central-eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal's Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.

Combining chromosomal arm status and significantly aberrant genomic locations reveals new cancer subtypes.

Many types of tumors exhibit characteristic chromosomal losses or gains, as well as local amplifications and deletions. Within any given tumor type, sample specific amplifications and deletions are also observed. Typically, a region that is aberrant in more tumors, or whose copy number change is stronger, would be considered as a more promising candidate to be biologically relevant to cancer. We sought for an intuitive method to define such aberrations and prioritize them. We define V, the "volume" associated with an aberration, as the product of three factors: (a) fraction of patients with the aberration, (b) the aberration's length and (c) its amplitude. Our algorithm compares the values of V derived from the real data to a null distribution obtained by permutations, and yields the statistical significance (p-value) of the measured value of V. We detected genetic locations that were significantly aberrant, and combine them with chromosomal arm status (gain/loss) to create a succinct fingerprint of the tumor genome. This genomic fingerprint is used to visualize the tumors, highlighting events that are co-occurring or mutually exclusive. We apply the method on three different public array CGH datasets of Medulloblastoma and Neuroblastoma, and demonstrate its ability to detect chromosomal regions that were known to be altered in the tested cancer types, as well as to suggest new genomic locations to be tested. We identified a potential new subtype of Medulloblastoma, which is analogous to Neuroblastoma type 1.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Role of fat oxidation in the long-term stabilization of body weight in obese women.

Two studies were performed to investigate the association between body fat mass and fat oxidation. The first, a cross-sectional study of 106 obese women maintaining stable body weight, showed that these two variables were significantly correlated (r = 0.56, P less than 0.001) and the regression coefficient indicated that a 10-kg change in fat mass corresponded to a change in fat oxidation of approximately 20 g/d. The second, a prospective study, validated this estimate and quantifies the long-term adaptations in fat oxidation resulting from body fat loss. Twenty-four moderately obese women were studied under controlled dietary conditions at stable weight before and after mean weight and fat losses of 12.7 and 9.8 kg, respectively. The reduction in fat oxidation was identical to that predicted by the above regression. We conclude that changes in fat mass significantly affect fat oxidation and that this process may contribute to the long-term regulation of fat and energy balance in obese individuals.

Smooth transition or permanent exit? Evidence on job prospects of displaced industrial workers

This article examines the job prospects of displaced industrial workers in Switzerland. Based on a survey of 1,203 workers who were dismissed after their manufacturing plants closed down, we analyse the determinants of re-employment, the sector of re-employment and the change in wages. Two years after displacement, a majority of workers were back in employment: 69% were re-employed, 17% un-employed and 11% retired. Amongst re-employed workers, two thirds found a job in manufacturing and one third in services. Contrary to a common belief, low-end services are not the collecting vessel of redundant industrial workers. Displaced workers aged 55 and older seem particularly vulnerable after a plant closes down: over 30% were long-term unemployed, and those older workers who found a new job suffered disproportionate wage losses. Advanced age-and not low education-appears as the primary handicap after mass redundancy.

Biases on the administered parenteral doses of an experimental drug during phase I clinical trials

Introduction: The pharmaceutical aspects of drug administration in clinical trials receive poor consideration compared with the important attention devoted to the analytical and mathematical aspects of biological sample exploitation. During PK calculations, many researchers merely use for dose the nominal amount declared, overlooking the noticeable biases that may result in the assessment of PK parameters. The aim of this work was to evaluate the biases related to doses injected of a biosimilar drug in 2 Phase I clinical trials. Patients (or Materials) and Methods: In trial A, 12 healthy volunteers received different doses of a biosimilar of interferon beta-1a by either subcutaneous (SC) or intravenous (IV) injection. The doses were prepared by partially emptying 0.5-mL syringes supplied by the manufacturer (drop count procedure). In trial B, 12 healthy volunteers received 3 different formulations of the drug by IV injection (biosimilar without albumin [HSA], biosimilar with HSA and original brand [Rebif®]) and 2 different formulations as multiple SC injections (biosimilar HSA-free and original brand). In both trials, the actual dose administered was calculated as: D = C·V - losses. The product titer C was assessed by ELISA. The volume administered IV was assessed by weighting. Losses were evaluated by in vitro experiments. Finally, the binding of 125I-interferon to HSA was evaluated by counting the free and HSA complexed molecule fractions separated by gel filtration. Results: Interferon was not significantly adsorbed onto the lines used for its IV administration. In trial A, the titer was very close to the one declared (96 ± 7%). In trial B, it differed significantly (156 ± 10% for biosimilar with/without HSA and 123 ± 5% for original formulation). In trial A, the dose actually administered showed a large variability. The real injected volume could be biased up to 75% compared with the theoretical volume (for the lower dose administered [ie, 0.03 mL]). This was mainly attributed to a partial re-aspiration of the drug solution before withdrawing the syringe needle. A strict procedure was therefore applied in trial B to avoid these inaccuracies. Finally, in trial B, 125I-Interferon beta-1a binding to HSA appeared time dependent and slow, reaching 50% after 16-hour incubation, which is close to steady state reported for the comparator Rebif®. Conclusion: These practical examples (especially biases on actual titer and volume injected) illustrate that actual dose assessment deserves attention to ensure accuracy for estimates of clearance and distribution volume in the scientific literature and for registration purposes, especially for bioequivalence studies.

Decreased thermal conductance during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle in women.

To study the influence of the menstrual cycle on whole body thermal balance and on thermoregulatory mechanisms, metabolic heat production (M) was measured by indirect calorimetry and total heat losses (H) were measured by direct calorimetry in nine women during the follicular (F) and the luteal (L) phases of the menstrual cycle. The subjects were studied while exposed for 90 min to neutral environmental conditions (ambient temperature 28 degrees C, relative humidity 40%) in a direct calorimeter. The values of M and H were not modified by the phase of the menstrual cycle. Furthermore, in both phases the subjects were in thermal equilibrium because M was similar to H (69.7 +/- 1.8 and 72.1 +/- 1.8 W in F and 70.4 +/- 1.9 and 71.4 +/- 1.7 W in L phases, respectively). Tympanic temperature (Tty) was 0.24 +/- 0.07 degrees C higher in the L than in the F phase (P less than 0.05), whereas mean skin temperature (Tsk) was unchanged. Calculated skin thermal conductance (Ksk) was lower in the L (17.9 +/- 0.6 W.m-2.degrees C-1) than in the F phase (20.1 +/- 1.1 W.m-2.degrees C-1; P less than 0.05). Calculated skin blood flow (Fsk) was also lower in the L (0.101 +/- 0.008 l.min-1.m-2) than in the F phase (0.131 +/- 0.015 l.min-1.m-2; P less than 0.05). Differences in Tty, Ksk, and Fsk were not correlated with changes in plasma progesterone concentration. It is concluded that, during the L phase, a decreased thermal conductance in women exposed to a neutral environment allows the maintenance of a higher internal temperature.

Fibrosarcoma-like lipomatous neoplasm: a reappraisal of so-called spindle cell liposarcoma defining a unique lipomatous tumor unrelated to other liposarcomas

The term "spindle cell liposarcoma" has been applied to liposarcomas (LPSs) composed predominantly or exclusively of spindled cells. These tumors have been considered variants of well-differentiated LPS (WDL), myxoid LPS, and spindle cell lipoma, suggesting that this is a heterogenous group of lesions. Using strict morphologic criteria and molecular and immunohistochemical analyses, we have identified a homogenous group of spindle cell lipomatous tumors, histologically and genetically distinct from other forms of LPS, which we have called "fibrosarcoma-like lipomatous neoplasm." Cases classified as "spindle cell LPS" or "low-grade LPS with spindle cell features" were reviewed. Final selection criteria included: (1) an exclusive low-grade spindle cell component resembling fibrosarcoma; (2) a mixture of bland fibroblastic cells resembling the preadipocyte and early-adipocyte stage of embryonic fat; and (3) molecular-genetic analysis that excluded other forms of lipomatous tumors. Of the initial 25 cases identified, comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) was uninformative in 2 cases; 5 were reclassified as WDL on the basis of molecular data (MDM2 amplification) and 6 as spindle cell lipoma (CGH profiles with a few gains and losses including a constant loss of chromosome 13 and frequent losses of chromosomes 16 and 6). The 12 remaining cases showed flat CGH profiles; of these cases, 11 were negative for DDIT3 gene rearrangements, and 1 result was uninterpretable. Patients ranged in age from 15 to 82 years (mean 50 y); male patients were affected slightly more often (7:5). Tumors arose in the deep (6) and superficial (3) soft tissue of the groin (4), buttock (3), thigh (2), flank (1), shoulder (1), and paratesticular tissue (1) and ranged in size from 2 to 20 cm (mean 7.5 cm). Clinical follow-up in 11 patients (9 mo to 20 y; mean 68 mo) showed no recurrences or metastases. As defined above, "fibrosarcoma-like lipomatous neoplasm" is a unique lipomatous tumor that should be distinguished from WDL/(low-grade) dedifferentiated LPS and myxoid LPS on combined histologic/molecular features because of its better prognosis.