Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Arenavirus Nucleoprotein Targets Interferon Regulatory Factor-Activating Kinase IKKε.

Arenaviruses perturb innate antiviral defense by blocking induction of type I interferon (IFN) production. Accordingly, the arenavirus nucleoprotein (NP) was shown to block activation and nuclear translocation of interferon regulatory factor 3 (IRF3) in response to virus infection. Here, we sought to identify cellular factors involved in innate antiviral signaling targeted by arenavirus NP. Consistent with previous studies, infection with the prototypic arenavirus lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) prevented phosphorylation of IRF3 in response to infection with Sendai virus, a strong inducer of the retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I)/mitochondrial antiviral signaling (MAVS) pathway of innate antiviral signaling. Using a combination of coimmunoprecipitation and confocal microscopy, we found that LCMV NP associates with the IκB kinase (IKK)-related kinase IKKε but that, rather unexpectedly, LCMV NP did not bind to the closely related TANK-binding kinase 1 (TBK-1). The NP-IKKε interaction was highly conserved among arenaviruses from different clades. In LCMV-infected cells, IKKε colocalized with NP but not with MAVS located on the outer membrane of mitochondria. LCMV NP bound the kinase domain (KD) of IKKε (IKBKE) and blocked its autocatalytic activity and its ability to phosphorylate IRF3, without undergoing phosphorylation. Together, our data identify IKKε as a novel target of arenavirus NP. Engagement of NP seems to sequester IKKε in an inactive complex. Considering the important functions of IKKε in innate antiviral immunity and other cellular processes, the NP-IKKε interaction likely plays a crucial role in arenavirus-host interaction.

The SOCS3-independent expression of IDO2 supports the homeostatic generation of T regulatory cells by human dendritic cells.

Dendritic cells (DCs) are professional APCs that have a role in the initiation of adaptive immune responses and tolerance. Among the tolerogenic mechanisms, the expression of the enzyme IDO1 represents an effective tool to generate T regulatory cells. In humans, different DC subsets express IDO1, but less is known about the IDO1-related enzyme IDO2. In this study, we found a different pattern of expression and regulation between IDO1 and IDO2 in human circulating DCs. At the protein level, IDO1 is expressed only in circulating myeloid DCs (mDCs) and is modulated by PGE2, whereas IDO2 is expressed in both mDCs and plasmacytoid DCs and is not modulated by PGE2. In healthy subjects, IDO1 expression requires the presence of PGE2 and needs continuous transcription and translation, whereas IDO2 expression is constitutive, independent from suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 activity. Conversely, in patients suffering from inflammatory arthritis, circulating DCs express both IDO1 and IDO2. At the functional level, both mDCs and plasmacytoid DCs generate T regulatory cells through an IDO1/IDO2-dependent mechanism. We conclude that, in humans, whereas IDO1 provides an additional mechanism of tolerance induced by proinflammatory mediators, IDO2 is stably expressed in steady-state conditions and may contribute to the homeostatic tolerogenic capacity of DCs.

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox.

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6 months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD50>2000 mg/kg b.w.).

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Time-Course In Vivo Trafficking Pattern and Effector Function of Donor-Specific Regulatory T Cells in Response to an Allograft.

Background: Experimental data have suggested that adoptive transfer of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs), capable of controlling immune responses to specifi c auto- or alloantigens, could be used as a therapeutic strategy to promote specifi c tolerance in T-cell mediated diseases and in organ transplantation (Tx). However, before advocating the application of immunotherapy with Tregs in Tx, we need to improve our understanding of their in vivo homeostasis, traffi cking pattern and effector function in response to alloantigens. Methods : Donor-antigen specifi c murine Tregs were generated and characterized in vitro following our described protocols. Using an adoptive transfer and skin allotransplantation model, we have analyzed the in vivo expansion and homing of fl uorescent-labeled effector T cells (Teff) and Tregs, at different time-points after Tx, using fl ow-cytometry as well as fl uorescence microscopy techniques. Results: Tregs expressed CD62L, CCR7 and CD103 allowing their homing into lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues (gut, skin) after intravenous injection. While hyporesponsive to TCR stimulation in vitro, transferred Tregs survived, migrated to secondary lymphoid organs and preferentially expanded within the allograft draining lymph nodes. Furthermore, Foxp3+ cells could be detected inside the allograft as early as day 3-5 after Tx. At a much later time-point (day 60 after Tx), graft-infi ltrating Foxp3+ cells were also detectable in tolerant recipients. When transferred alone, CD4+CD25- Teff cells expanded within secondary lymphoid organs and infi ltrated the allograft by day 3-5 after Tx. The co-transfer of Tregs limited the expansion of alloreactive Teff cells as well as their recruitment into the allograft. The promotion of graft survival observed in the presence of Tregs was in part mediated by the inhibition of the production of effector cytokines by CD4+CD25- T cells. Conclusion: Taken together, our results suggest that the suppression of allograft rejection and the induction of Tx tolerance are in part dependant on the alloantigendriven homing and expansion of Tregs. Thus, the appropriate localization of Tregs may be critical for their suppressive function in vivo.

A hormonal regulatory module that provides flexibility to tropic responses.

Plants orient their growth depending on directional stimuli such as light and gravity, in a process known as tropic response. Tropisms result from asymmetrical accumulation of auxin across the responding organ relative to the direction of the stimulus, which causes differential growth rates on both sides of the organ. Here, we show that gibberellins (GAs) attenuate the gravitropic reorientation of stimulated hypocotyls of dark-grown Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings. We show that the modulation occurs through induction of the expression of the negative regulator of auxin signaling INDOLE-3-ACETIC ACID INDUCIBLE19/MASSUGU2. The biological significance of this regulatory mechanism involving GAs and auxin seems to be the maintenance of a high degree of flexibility in tropic responses. This notion is further supported by observations that GA-deficient seedlings showed a much lower variance in the response to gravity compared to wild-type seedlings and that the attenuation of gravitropism by GAs resulted in an increased phototropic response. This suggests that the interplay between auxin and GAs may be particularly important for plant orientation under competing tropic stimuli.

Social insect genomes exhibit dramatic evolution in gene composition and regulation while preserving regulatory features linked to sociality.

Genomes of eusocial insects code for dramatic examples of phenotypic plasticity and social organization. We compared the genomes of seven ants, the honeybee, and various solitary insects to examine whether eusocial lineages share distinct features of genomic organization. Each ant lineage contains ∼4000 novel genes, but only 64 of these genes are conserved among all seven ants. Many gene families have been expanded in ants, notably those involved in chemical communication (e.g., desaturases and odorant receptors). Alignment of the ant genomes revealed reduced purifying selection compared with Drosophila without significantly reduced synteny. Correspondingly, ant genomes exhibit dramatic divergence of noncoding regulatory elements; however, extant conserved regions are enriched for novel noncoding RNAs and transcription factor-binding sites. Comparison of orthologous gene promoters between eusocial and solitary species revealed significant regulatory evolution in both cis (e.g., Creb) and trans (e.g., fork head) for nearly 2000 genes, many of which exhibit phenotypic plasticity. Our results emphasize that genomic changes can occur remarkably fast in ants, because two recently diverged leaf-cutter ant species exhibit faster accumulation of species-specific genes and greater divergence in regulatory elements compared with other ants or Drosophila. Thus, while the "socio-genomes" of ants and the honeybee are broadly characterized by a pervasive pattern of divergence in gene composition and regulation, they preserve lineage-specific regulatory features linked to eusociality. We propose that changes in gene regulation played a key role in the origins of insect eusociality, whereas changes in gene composition were more relevant for lineage-specific eusocial adaptations.

Suivi de l'adhésion thérapeutique des patients hypertendus ou dyslipi- démiques par les cercles de qualité médecins-pharmaciens [Monitoring drug adherence for hypertensive and dyslipidemic patients in networks of community-based pharmacists and physicians].

Patient adherence is often poor for hypertension and dyslipidaemia. A monitoring of drug adherence might improve these risk factors control, but little is known in ambulatory care. We conducted a randomised controlled study in networks of community-based pharmacists and physicians in the canton of Fribourg to examine whether monitoring drug adherence with an electronic monitor (MEMS) would improve risk factor control among treated, but uncontrolled hypertensive and dyslipidemic patients. The results indicate that MEMS achieve a better blood pressure control and lipid profile, although its implementation requires considerable resources. The study also shows the value of collaboration between physicians and pharmacists in the field of patient adherence to improve ambulatory care of patients with cardiovascular risk factors.