Statistical methods for river runoff prediction

Methods used to analyze one type of nonstationary stochastic processes?the periodically correlated process?are considered. Two methods of one-step-forward prediction of periodically correlated time series are examined. One-step-forward predictions made in accordance with an autoregression model and a model of an artificial neural network with one latent neuron layer and with an adaptation mechanism of network parameters in a moving time window were compared in terms of efficiency. The comparison showed that, in the case of prediction for one time step for time series of mean monthly water discharge, the simpler autoregression model is more efficient.

Apparent stable-isotope heterogeneities in gangue carbonates of the Mississippi Valley-type Zn-Pb deposits of San-Vicente, Central Peru

The aim of the present communication is to emphasize that some variations of the measured delta(13)C and delta(18)O values are apparent, and due to analytical interferences caused by the presence of sulfur and organosulfur compounds in the analyzed carbonates. This is particularly relevant for isotopic studies on carbonate-hosted mineral deposits, where the nearly ubiquitous association of the host carbonates with organic matter and sulfides can certainly affect the metallogenetic interpretations. In this work two methods were used to overcome the disturbing effects of sulfides and organic matter: (1) sample pretreatment following the method proposed by Charef and Sheppard (1984), combining the oxidation of organic matter with sodium hypochlorite and trapping of the sulfur species with silver phosphate; and (2) laser-based microprobe extraction. Apparent isotopic variations in sparry dolomite from a single hand sample of zebra ore from the MVT Zn-Pb deposit, San Vicente, central Peru, are as large as 6 parts per thousand delta(13)C and 4 parts per thousand delta(18)O. These variations are reduced to several tenths of a per mil when the samples are pretreated. A careful examination of the effects of treatment with NaOCl and/or Ag3PO4 in relation to the concentration of sulfide inclusions indicates that the main disturbing effects for delta(13)C values are the presence of sulfur species and organic matter, whereas the delta(18)O values are mainly affected by the presence of sulfides. Fine- and medium-grained replacement carbonates from MVT and other sediment-hosted base metal deposits are potentially the most affected during isotope analysis, due to the common presence of organic matter and sulfides. Using in situ laser microprobe techniques, it is possible to determine isotopic variations at a sub-millimeter scale. Our results show that laser extraction analysis allows a more precise sampling of the carbonate minerals, and minimizes contamination of the sample with sulfides and to some extent with intergrown organic matter. However, there is an isotopic shift associated with the laser extraction technique, of the order of 0.5-1 parts per thousand for delta(13)C and delta(18)O values.

Tracing of the Rhône River, wastewater, and mixing within Lake Geneva : stable isotope compositions of water and dissolved inorganic carbon

This study presents an evaluation of the stable isotopic composition of water (hydrogen and oxygen) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of Lake Geneva, a deep, peri-alpine lake situated at the border between Switzerland and France. The research goal is to apply vertical and seasonal variations of the isotope compositions to evaluate mixing processes of pollutants, nutrients and oxygen. Depth profiles were sampled at different locations throughout Lake Geneva on a monthly and seasonal basis over the course of three years (2009-2011). The results of the oxygen isotopic composition indicate a Rhône River interflow, which can be traced for about 55 km throughout the lake during summer. The Rhône River interflow is 7 to 15 m thick and the molar fraction of Rhône water is estimated to amount up to 37 %. Calculated density of the water and measured isotopic compositions demonstrate that the interflow depth changes in conjunction with the density gradient in the water column during fall. Partial pressure of CO2 indicates that the epilimnion is taking up CO2 from the atmosphere between spring and fall. The epilimnion is most enriched in 13CDIC in September and a progressive depletion of 13CDIC can be observed in the metalimnion from spring to late fall. This stratification is dependent on the local density stratification and the results demonstrate that parameters, which are indicating photosynthesis, are not necessarily linked to δ13CDIC values. In addition, the amount of primary production shows a strong discrepancy between summer 2009 and 2010, but δ13CDIC values of the epilimnion and metalimnion do not indicate variations. In the hypolimnion of the deep lake δ13CDIC values are constant and the progressive depletion allows tracing remineralization processes. The combination of stable carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions allows furthermore tracing Rhône River water fractions, as well as wastewater, stormwater and anthropogenic induced carbon in the water column of the shallow Bay of Vidy. In combination with the results of measured micropollutants, the study underlines that concentrations of certain substances may be related to the Rhône River interflow and/or remineralization of particulate organic carbon. Water quality monitoring and research should therefore be extended to the metalimnion as well as sediment water interface.

Volcanic debris avalanche deposits of the upper Maronne valley (Cantal Volcano, France): evidence for contrasted formation and transport mechanisms

The deposits of two volcanic debris avalanches (VDA I and II) that occur in the upper Maronne valley, northwest sector of Cantal Volcano, France, were studied to establish their mechanisms of formation, transport and deposition. These two volcanic debris avalanches that clearly differ with regard to their structures, textures and extensions, exemplify the wide spectrum of events associated with large-scale sector collapse. VDA I is voluminous (similar to1 km(3) in the upper Maronne valley) and widespread. The deposits comprise two distinct facies: the block facies that forms the intermediate and upper part of the unit and the mixed facies that crops out essentially at the base of the unit. The block facies consists of more or less brecciated lava, block-and-ash-flow breccia and pumice-flow tuff megablocks set in breccias resulting from block disaggregation. Mixing and differential movements are almost absent in this part of the VDA. The mixed facies consists of breccias rich in fine particles that originate from block disagregation, as well as being picked up from the substratum during movement. Mixing and differential movements are predominant in this zone. Analysis of fractures on lava megablocks suggests that shear stress during the initial sliding is the principal cause of fracture. These data strongly indicate that VDA I is purely gravitational and argue for a model in which the initial sliding mass transforms into a flow due to differential in situ fragmentation caused by the shear stress. VDA II is restricted to low-topography areas. Its volume, in the studied area, is about 0.3 km(3). The deposits consist of brecciated, rounded blocks and megablocks set in a fine-grained matrix composed essentially of volcanic glass. This unit is stratified, with a massive layer that contains all the megablocks at the base and in the intermediate part, and in the upper part a normally graded layer that contains only blocks <1 m in size. The different lithologies present are totally mixed. These observations suggest that VDA II may be of the Bezymianny-type and that it underwent a flow transformation from a turbulent to a stratified flow consisting of a basal hyperconcentrated laminar body overlain by a dilute layer. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Organic geochemistry across the Permian-Triassic transition at the Idrijca Valley, Western Slovenia

Bulk and molecular stable C isotopic compositions and biomarker distributions provide evidence for a diverse community of algal and bacterial organisms in the sedimentary organic matter of a carbonate section throughout the Permian-Triassic (P/Tr) transition at the Idrijca Valley, Western Slovenia. The input of algae and bacteria in all the Upper Permian and Lower Scythian samples is represented by the predominance of C-15-C-22 n-alkanes, odd C-number alkylcyclohexanes, C-27 steranes and substantial contents Of C-21-C-30 acyclic isoprenoids. The occurrence of odd long-chain n-alkanes (C-22-C-30) and C29 steranes in all the samples indicate a contribution of continental material. The decrease of C-org and C-carb contents, increase of Rock-Eval oxygen indices, and C-13-enrichment of the kerogen suggest a decrease in anoxia of the uppermost Permian bottom water. The predominance of odd C-number alkylcycloalkanes, C-27 steranes, and C-17 n-alkanes with delta(13)C values similar to-30parts per thousand, and C-13-enrichment of the kerogens in the lowermost Scythian samples are evidence of greater algal productivity. This increased productivity was probably sustained by a high nutrient availability and changes of dissolved CO2 speciation associated to the earliest Triassic transgression. A decrease Of Corg content in the uppermost Scythian samples, associated to a C-13-depletetion in the carbonates (up to 4parts per thousand) and individual n-alkanes (up to 3.4parts per thousand) compared to the Upper Permian samples, indicate lowering of the primary productivity (algae, cyanobacteria) and/or higher degradation of the organic matter. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution and sedimentology of a channel fill in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River and its comparison to the deposits of an adjacent compound bar

The depositional stratigraphy of within-channel deposits in sandy braided rivers is dominated by a variety of barforms (both singular `unit' bars and complex `compound' bars), as well as the infill of individual channels (herein termed `channel fills'). The deposits of bars and channel fills define the key components of facies models for braided rivers and their within-channel heterogeneity, knowledge of which is important for reservoir characterization. However, few studies have sought to address the question of whether the deposits of bars and channel fills can be readily differentiated from each other. This paper presents the first quantitative study to achieve this aim, using aerial images of an evolving modern sandy braided river and geophysical imaging of its subsurface deposits. Aerial photographs taken between 2000 and 2004 document the abandonment and fill of a 1 3 km long, 80 m wide anabranch channel in the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. Upstream river regulation traps the majority of very fine sediment and there is little clay (<1%) in the bed sediments. Channel abandonment was initiated by a series of unit bars that stalled and progressively blocked the anabranch entrance, together with dune deposition and stacking at the anabranch entrance and exit. Complete channel abandonment and subsequent fill of up to 3 m of sediment took approximately two years. Thirteen kilometres of ground-penetrating radar surveys, coupled with 18 cores, were obtained over the channel fill and an adjacent 750 m long, 400 m wide, compound bar, enabling a quantitative analysis of the channel and bar deposits. Results show that, in terms of grain-size trends, facies proportions and scale of deposits, there are only subtle differences between the channel fill and bar deposits which, therefore, renders them indistinguishable. Thus, it may be inappropriate to assign different geometric and sedimentological attributes to channel fill and bar facies in object-based models of sandy braided river alluvial architecture.

Effect of water velocity on the uptake of polychlorinatedd biphenyls (PCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers: an assessment of the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) in river-like flow conditions

One aim of this study is to determine the impact of water velocity on the uptake of indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (iPCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers. A second aim is to assess the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) to correct for the impact of water velocity. SR and LDPE samplers were spiked with 11 or 12 PRCs and exposed for 6 weeks to four different velocities (in the range of 1.6 to 37.7 cm s−1) in river-like flow conditions using a channel system supplied with river water. A relationship between velocity and the uptakewas found for each iPCB and enables to determine expected changes in the uptake due to velocity variations. For both samplers, velocity increases from 2 to 10 cm s−1, 30 cm s−1 (interpolated data) and 100 cm s−1 (extrapolated data) lead to increases of the uptake which do not exceed a factor of 2, 3 and 4.5, respectively. Results also showed that the influence of velocity decreased with increasing the octanol-water coefficient partition (log Kow) of iPCBs when SR is used whereas the opposite effect was observed for LDPE. Time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of iPCBs in water were calculated from iPCB uptake and PRC release. These calculations were performed using either a single PRC or all the PRCs. The efficiency of PRCs to correct the impact of velocity was assessed by comparing the TWA concentrations obtained at the four tested velocities. For SR, a good agreement was found among the four TWA concentrations with both methods (average RSD b 10%). Also for LDPE, PRCs offered a good correction of the impact of water velocity (average RSD of about 10 to 20%). These results contribute to the process of acceptance of passive sampling in routine regulatory monitoring programs.

Scales and causes of heterogeneity in bars in a large multi-channel river: Rio Parana, Argentina

To date, published studies of alluvial bar architecture in large rivers have been restricted mostly to case studies of individual bars and single locations. Relatively little is known about how the depositional processes and sedimentary architecture of kilometre-scale bars vary within a multi-kilometre reach or over several hundreds of kilometres downstream. This study presents Ground Penetrating Radar and core data from 11, kilometre-scale bars from the Rio Parana, Argentina. The investigated bars are located between 30km upstream and 540km downstream of the Rio Parana - Rio Paraguay confluence, where a significant volume of fine-grained suspended sediment is introduced into the network. Bar-scale cross-stratified sets, with lengths and widths up to 600m and thicknesses up to 12m, enable the distinction of large river deposits from stacked deposits of smaller rivers, but are only present in half the surface area of the bars. Up to 90% of bar-scale sets are found on top of finer-grained ripple-laminated bar-trough deposits. Bar-scale sets make up as much as 58% of the volume of the deposits in small, incipient mid-channel bars, but this proportion decreases significantly with increasing age and size of the bars. Contrary to what might be expected, a significant proportion of the sedimentary structures found in the Rio Parana is similar in scale to those found in much smaller rivers. In other words, large river deposits are not always characterized by big structures that allow a simple interpretation of river scale. However, the large scale of the depositional units in big rivers causes small-scale structures, such as ripple sets, to be grouped into thicker cosets, which indicate river scale even when no obvious large-scale sets are present. The results also show that the composition of bars differs between the studied reaches upstream and downstream of the confluence with the Rio Paraguay. Relative to other controls on downstream fining, the tributary input of fine-grained suspended material from the Rio Paraguay causes a marked change in the composition of the bar deposits. Compared to the upstream reaches, the sedimentary architecture of the downstream reaches in the top ca 5m of mid-channel bars shows: (i) an increase in the abundance and thickness (up to metre-scale) of laterally extensive (hundreds of metres) fine-grained layers; (ii) an increase in the percentage of deposits comprised of ripple sets (to >40% in the upper bar deposits); and (iii) an increase in bar-trough deposits and a corresponding decrease in bar-scale cross-strata (<10%). The thalweg deposits of the Rio Parana are composed of dune sets, even directly downstream from the Rio Paraguay where the upper channel deposits are dominantly fine-grained. Thus, the change in sedimentary facies due to a tributary point-source of fine-grained sediment is primarily expressed in the composition of the upper bar deposits.

Deposits of the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River: Implications for the use of modern analogs in reconstructing channel dimensions in reservoir characterization

Estimation of the dimensions of fluvial geobodies from core data is a notoriously difficult problem in reservoir modeling. To try and improve such estimates and, hence, reduce uncertainty in geomodels, data on dunes, unit bars, cross-bar channels, and compound bars and their associated deposits are presented herein from the sand-bed braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. These data are used to test models that relate the scale of the formative bed forms to the dimensions of the preserved deposits and, therefore, provide an insight as to how such deposits may be preserved over geologic time. The preservation of bed-form geometry is quantified by comparing the Alluvial architecture above and below the maximum erosion depth of the modem channel deposits. This comparison shows that there is no significant difference in the mean set thickness of dune cross-strata above and below the basal erosion surface of the contemporary channel, thus suggesting that dimensional relationships between dune deposits and the formative bed-form dimensions are likely to be valid from both recent and older deposits. The data show that estimates of mean bankfull flow depth derived from dune, unit bar, and cross-bar channel deposits are all very similar. Thus, the use of all these metrics together can provide a useful check that all components and scales of the alluvial architecture have been identified correctly when building reservoir models. The data also highlight several practical issues with identifying and applying data relating to cross-strata. For example, the deposits of unit bars were found to be severely truncated in length and width, with only approximately 10% of the mean bar-form length remaining, and thus making identification in section difficult. For similar reasons, the deposits of compound bars were found to be especially difficult to recognize, and hence, estimates of channel depth based on this method may be problematic. Where only core data are available (i.e., no outcrop data exist), formative flow depths are suggested to be best reconstructed using cross-strata formed by dunes. However, theoretical relationships between the distribution of set thicknesses and formative dune height are found to result in slight overestimates of the latter and, hence, mean bankfull flow depths derived from these measurements. This article illustrates that the preservation of fluvial cross-strata and, thus, the paleohydraulic inferences that can be drawn from them, are a function of the ratio of the size and migration rate of bed forms and the time scale of aggradation and channel migration. These factors must thus be considered when deciding on appropriate length:thickness ratios for the purposes of object-based modeling in reservoir characterization.

Climate and human forcing of Alpine river flow

River flow in Alpine environments is likely to be highly sensitive to climate change because of the effects of warming upon snow and ice, and hence the intra-annual distribution of river runoff. It is also likely to be influenced strongly by human impacts both upon hydrology (e.g. flow abstraction) and river regulation. This paper compares the river flow and sediment flux of two Alpine drainage basins over the last 5 to 7 decades, one that is largely unimpacted by human activities, one strongly impacted by flow abstraction for hydroelectricity. The analysis shows that both river flow and sediment transport capacity are strongly dependent upon the effects of temperature and precipitation availability upon snow accumulation. As the latter tends to increase annual maximum flows, and given the non-linear form of most sediment transport laws, current warming trends may lead to increased sedimentation in Alpine rivers. However, extension to a system impacted upon by flow abstraction reveals the dominant effect that human activity can have upon river sedimentation but also how human response to sediment management has co-evolved with climate forcing to make disentangling the two very difficult.

Morphological, hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological changes and challenges in river restoration - the Thur River case study

River restoration can enhance river dynamics, environmental heterogeneity and biodiversity, but the underlying processes governing the dynamic changes need to be understood to ensure that restoration projects meet their goals, and adverse effects are prevented. In particular, we need to comprehend how hydromorphological variability quantitatively relates to ecosystem functioning and services, biodiversity as well as ground-and surface water quality in restored river corridors. This involves (i) physical processes and structural properties, determining erosion and sedimentation, as well as solute and heat transport behavior in surface water and within the subsurface; (ii) biogeochemical processes and characteristics, including the turnover of nutrients and natural water constituents; and (iii) ecological processes and indicators related to biodiversity and ecological functioning. All these aspects are interlinked, requiring an interdisciplinary investigation approach. Here, we present an overview of the recently completed RECORD (REstored CORridor Dynamics) project in which we combined physical, chemical, and biological observations with modeling at a restored river corridor of the perialpine Thur River in Switzerland. Our results show that river restoration, beyond inducing morphologic changes that reshape the river bed and banks, triggered complex spatial patterns of bank infiltration, and affected habitat type, biotic communities and biogeochemical processes. We adopted an interdisciplinary approach of monitoring the continuing changes due to restoration measures to address the following questions: How stable is the morphological variability established by restoration? Does morphological variability guarantee an improvement in biodiversity? How does morphological variability affect biogeochemical transformations in the river corridor? What are some potential adverse effects of river restoration? How is river restoration influenced by catchment-scale hydraulics [GRAPHICS] and which feedbacks exist on the large scale? Beyond summarizing the major results of individual studies within the project, we show that these overarching questions could only be addressed in an interdisciplinary framework.

Spatial pattern of landslides in Swiss Rhone valley

The present study analyses the spatial pattern of quaternary gravitational slope deformations (GSD) and historical/present-day instabilities (HPI) inventoried in the Swiss Rhone Valley. The main objective is to test if these events are clustered (spatial attraction) or randomly distributed (spatial independency). Moreover, analogies with the cluster behaviour of earthquakes inventoried in the same area were examined. The Ripley's K-function was applied to measure and test for randomness. This indicator allows describing the spatial pattern of a point process at increasing distance values. To account for the non-constant intensity of the geological phenomena, a modification of the K-function for inhomogeneous point processes was adopted. The specific goal is to explore the spatial attraction (i.e. cluster behaviour) among landslide events and between gravitational slope deformations and earthquakes. To discover if the two classes of instabilities (GSD and HPI) are spatially independently distributed, the cross K-function was computed. The results show that all the geological events under study are spatially clustered at a well-defined distance range. GSD and HPI show a similar pattern distribution with clusters in the range 0.75?9 km. The cross K-function reveals an attraction between the two classes of instabilities in the range 0?4 km confirming that HPI are more prone to occur within large-scale slope deformations. The K-function computed for GSD and earthquakes indicates that both present a cluster tendency in the range 0?10 km, suggesting that earthquakes could represent a potential predisposing factor which could influence the GSD distribution.

Ecosystem impacts of Alpine water intakes for hydropower: the challenge of sediment management

The natural flow hydrological characteristics (such as the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge) of Alpine streams, dominated by snowmelt and glacier melt, have been established for many years. More recently, the ecosystems that they sustain have been described and explained. However, natural Alpine flow regimes may be strongly modified by hydroelectric power production, which impacts upon both river discharge and sediment transfer, and hence on downstream flora and fauna. The impacts of barrages or dams have been well studied. However, there is a second type of flow regulation, associated with flow abstraction at intakes where the water is transferred laterally, either to another valley for storage, or at altitude within the same valley for eventual release downstream. Like barrages, such intakes also trap sediment, but because they are much smaller, they fill more frequently and so need to be flushed regularly. Downstream, while the flow regime is substantially modified, the delivery of sediment (notably coarser fractions) remains. The ecosystem impacts of such systems have been rarely considered. Through reviewing the state of our knowledge of Alpine ecosystems, we outline the key research questions that will need to be addressed in order to modify intake management so as to reduce downstream ecological impacts. Simply redesigning river flows to address sediment management will be ineffective because such redesign cannot restore a natural sediment regime and other approaches are likely to be required if stream ecology in such systems is to be improved.