Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

Development of allocentric spatial memory abilities in children from 18 months to 5 years of age.

Episodic memories for autobiographical events that happen in unique spatiotemporal contexts are central to defining who we are. Yet, before 2 years of age, children are unable to form or store episodic memories for recall later in life, a phenomenon known as infantile amnesia. Here, we studied the development of allocentric spatial memory, a fundamental component of episodic memory, in two versions of a real-world memory task requiring 18 month- to 5-year-old children to search for rewards hidden beneath cups distributed in an open-field arena. Whereas children 25-42-months-old were not capable of discriminating three reward locations among 18 possible locations in absence of local cues marking these locations, children older than 43 months found the reward locations reliably. These results support previous findings suggesting that allocentric spatial memory, if present, is only rudimentary in children under 3.5 years of age. However, when tested with only one reward location among four possible locations, children 25-39-months-old found the reward reliably in absence of local cues, whereas 18-23-month-olds did not. Our findings thus show that the ability to form a basic allocentric representation of the environment is present by 2 years of age, and its emergence coincides temporally with the offset of infantile amnesia. However, the ability of children to distinguish and remember closely related spatial locations improves from 2 to 3.5 years of age, a developmental period marked by persistent deficits in long-term episodic memory known as childhood amnesia. These findings support the hypothesis that the differential maturation of distinct hippocampal circuits contributes to the emergence of specific memory processes during early childhood.

Trends in overweight and obesity levels in Geneva: time for optimism?

Background/Introduction: ln Switzerland, most trends in overweight and obesity levels have been assessed using reported data, a methodology which is prone to reporting bias. ln this study, we aimed at assessing trends in overweight and obesity levels using objectively measured data. Methods: We used independent cross-sectional data collected between 2005 and 2011 by the Bus Santé study on representative samples of the Geneva population. Trends were assessed overall and according to different characteristics of the participants. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25 and 29.9 kg/m2 and >=30 kg/m2, respectively. Results: Data from 4093 participants (2012 men) was assessed. Mean BMI was 25.2 ± 4.3 kg/m2 (mean ±standard deviation) in 2005 and 25.4 ± 4.3 in 2011 (p for trend using linear regression=0.98). For men, mean BMI was 26.3 ± 3.8 kg/m2 in 2005 and 26.1 ± 3.7 in 2011 (p for trend=0.37); for women, the corresponding values were 24.3 ± 4.6 and 24.7 ± 4.7 kg/m2 (p for trend=0.42). Overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 32.2% and 13.3%, respectively, in 2005 and 33.6% and 13.7% in 2011 (p for trend using polytomous logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and smoking=0.49 and 0.94 for overweight and obesity, respectively). For men, prevalence of overweight and obesity was 45.9% and 12.2% in 2005 and 42.1 % and 14.6% in 2011 (P for trend=0.03 for overweight and 0.81 for obesity); for women, the corresponding values were 20.4% and 14.2% in 2005 and 25.4% and 12.9% in 2011 (p for trend=0.13 for overweight and 0.99 for obesity). Conclusion: Overweight and obesity levels appear to have levelled in Geneva, with a possible decrease in overweight levels in men. These favorable findings should be replicated in other geographical locations.

Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.

Multiple refugia and barriers explain the phylogeography of the Valais shrew, Sorex antinorii (Mammalia: Soricomorpha), Sorex antinorii (Mammalia: Soricomorpha)

The aim of the present study was to investigate the genetic structure of the Valais shrew (Sorex antinorii) by a combined phylogeographical and landscape genetic approach, and thereby to infer the locations of glacial refugia and establish the influence of geographical barriers. We sequenced part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cyt b) gene of 179 individuals of S. antinorii sampled across the entire species' range. Six specimens attributed to S. arunchi were included in the analysis. The phylogeographical pattern was assessed by Bayesian molecular phylogenetic reconstruction, population genetic analyses, and a species distribution modelling (SDM)-based hindcasting approach. We also used landscape genetics (including isolation-by-resistance) to infer the determinants of current intra-specific genetic structure. The phylogeographical analysis revealed shallow divergence among haplotypes and no clear substructure within S. antinorii. The starlike structure of the median-joining network is consistent with population expansion from a single refugium, probably located in the Apennines. Long branches observed on the same network also suggest that another refugium may have existed in the north-eastern part of Italy. This result is consistent with SDM, which also suggests several habitable areas for S. antinorii in the Italian peninsula during the LGM. Therefore S. antinorii appears to have occupied disconnected glacial refugia in the Italian peninsula, supporting previous data for other species showing multiple refugia within southern refugial areas. By coupling genetic analyses and SDM, we were able to infer how past climatic suitability contributed to genetic divergence of populations. The genetic differentiation shown in the present study does not support the specific status of S. arunchi.

Effective exposure to solar UV in building workers: influence of local and individual factors.

Excessive exposure to solar UV light is the main cause of skin cancers in humans. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. Although outdoor occupational activities contribute significantly to the individual dose received, data on effective exposure are scarce and limited to a few occupations. A study was undertaken in order to assess effective short-term exposure among building workers and characterize the influence of individual and local factors on exposure. The effective exposure of construction workers in a mountainous area in the southern part of Switzerland was investigated through short-term dosimetry (97 dosimeters). Three altitudes, of about 500, 1500 and 2500 m were considered. Individual measurements over 20 working periods were performed using Spore film dosimeters on five body locations. The postural activity of workers was concomitantly recorded and static UV measurements were also performed. Effective exposure among building workers was high and exceeded occupational recommendations, for all individuals for at least one body location. The mean daily UV dose in plain was 11.9 SED (0.0-31.3 SED), in middle mountain 21.4 SED (6.6-46.8 SED) and in high mountain 28.6 SED (0.0-91.1 SED). Measured doses between workers and anatomical locations exhibited a high variability, stressing the role of local exposure conditions and individual factors. Short-term effective exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. A predictive irradiation model was developed to investigate the role of individual factors. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure, and were also found to account more than altitude on the total variance of effective daily exposures. Targeted sensitization actions through professional information channels and specific prevention messages are recommended. Altitude outdoor workers should also benefit from preventive medical examination.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Introduction to the special issue on employment discrimination against immigrants

Purpose - This editorial aims to introduce the special issue on employment discrimination against immigrants. Design/methodology/approach - The first part is a commentary on key issues in the study of employment discrimination against immigrants. The second part presents the five articles in the special issue. Findings - The papers in this special issue focus on a variety of issues associated with employment discrimination against immigrants. For example, they consider: discrimination based on accents; differences among justice perceptions among immigrants and non-immigrants; the effects of negative stereotypes on workplace outcomes; the treatment of Hispanic immigrants; and the reasons for the lack of research on Hispanic immigrants. Research limitations/implications - The author comments on key issues that researchers of employment discrimination against immigrants have to take into account. These issues include: the appreciation of the diversity among immigrants; an understanding of the complexity of employment discrimination research; openness to cross-disciplinary approaches; and the consideration of employment discrimination within the context of the immigrant experience. The five articles that make up the special issues vary in their nature (empirical, critical), methodologies (quantitative, qualitative), locations (United States, Germany, and Canada), and implications. Practical implications - The issues discussed in the papers have important implications for understanding and overcoming employment discrimination against immigrants. Originality/value - The Journal of Managerial Psychology invited this special issue to initiate psychological research on employment discrimination against immigrants. The intent is to draw the attention of organizational scholars to the large, yet under-studied immigrant segment of the workforce.

Use of the pyrophosphatase activity as a reliable tonoplast marker in maize roots.

Membranes of maize (Zea mays L., cv LG 11) roots were fractionated by sucrose (in presence or absence of Mg2+) or dextran density gradient centrifugations and the locations of organelles were determined using marker enzymes. Latent UDPase was used as a Golgi marker, catalase for the peroxysomes, cytochrome c oxidase for the mitochondria, UDP-Gal-galactosyltransferase for the amyloplast membranes and NADH-cytochrome c reductase for the ER. Two markers were selected for the plasmalemma, the vanadate-sensitive ATPase and UDP-Glc-sterolglucosyltransferase. The distributions of the PPase and vacuolar ATPase were found to be similar after density gradient centrifugation. The PPase and vacuolar ATPase activities were clearly separated from almost all the other markers tested, however, a partial association of both activities with the ER cannot be completely ruled out. The PPase of maize roots is more active and easier to measure than the vacuolar ATPase and is therefore an excellent candidate for use as a tonoplast marker.

Use of high-resolution geophysical data to characterize heterogeneous aquifers: influence of data integration method on hydrological predictions

The integration of geophysical data into the subsurface characterization problem has been shown in many cases to significantly improve hydrological knowledge by providing information at spatial scales and locations that is unattainable using conventional hydrological measurement techniques. The investigation of exactly how much benefit can be brought by geophysical data in terms of its effect on hydrological predictions, however, has received considerably less attention in the literature. Here, we examine the potential hydrological benefits brought by a recently introduced simulated annealing (SA) conditional stochastic simulation method designed for the assimilation of diverse hydrogeophysical data sets. We consider the specific case of integrating crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and borehole porosity log data to characterize the porosity distribution in saturated heterogeneous aquifers. In many cases, porosity is linked to hydraulic conductivity and thus to flow and transport behavior. To perform our evaluation, we first generate a number of synthetic porosity fields exhibiting varying degrees of spatial continuity and structural complexity. Next, we simulate the collection of crosshole GPR data between several boreholes in these fields, and the collection of porosity log data at the borehole locations. The inverted GPR data, together with the porosity logs, are then used to reconstruct the porosity field using the SA-based method, along with a number of other more elementary approaches. Assuming that the grid-cell-scale relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity is unique and known, the porosity realizations are then used in groundwater flow and contaminant transport simulations to assess the benefits and limitations of the different approaches.

Neonatal and adult ICU ventilators to provide ventilation in neonates, infants, and children: a bench model study.

BACKGROUND: Using a bench test model, we investigated the hypothesis that neonatal and/or adult ventilators equipped with neonatal/pediatric modes currently do not reliably administer pressure support (PS) in neonatal or pediatric patient groups in either the absence or presence of air leaks. METHODS: PS was evaluated in 4 neonatal and 6 adult ventilators using a bench model to evaluate triggering, pressurization, and cycling in both the absence and presence of leaks. Delivered tidal volumes were also assessed. Three patients were simulated: a preterm infant (resistance 100 cm H2O/L/s, compliance 2 mL/cm H2O, inspiratory time of the patient [TI] 400 ms, inspiratory effort 1 and 2 cm H2O), a full-term infant (resistance 50 cm H2O/L/s, compliance 5 mL/cm H2O, TI 500 ms, inspiratory effort 2 and 4 cm H2O), and a child (resistance 30 cm H2O/L/s, compliance 10 mL/cm H2O, TI 600 ms, inspiratory effort 5 and 10 cm H2O). Two PS levels were tested (10 and 15 cm H2O) with and without leaks and with and without the leak compensation algorithm activated. RESULTS: Without leaks, only 2 neonatal ventilators and one adult ventilator had trigger delays under a given predefined acceptable limit (1/8 TI). Pressurization showed high variability between ventilators. Most ventilators showed TI in excess high enough to seriously impair patient-ventilator synchronization (> 50% of the TI of the subject). In some ventilators, leaks led to autotriggering and impairment of ventilation performance, but the influence of leaks was generally lower in neonatal ventilators. When a noninvasive ventilation algorithm was available, this was partially corrected. In general, tidal volume was calculated too low by the ventilators in the presence of leaks; the noninvasive ventilation algorithm was able to correct this difference in only 2 adult ventilators. CONCLUSIONS: No ventilator performed equally well under all tested conditions for all explored parameters. However, neonatal ventilators tended to perform better in the presence of leaks. These findings emphasize the need to improve algorithms for assisted ventilation modes to better deal with situations of high airway resistance, low pulmonary compliance, and the presence of leaks.

Esophageal leaks repaired by a muscle onlay approach in the presence of mediastinal sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Nineteen patients were evaluated after closure of intrathoracic esophageal leaks by a pediculated muscle flap onlay repair in the presence of mediastinal and systemic sepsis. METHODS: Intrathoracic esophageal leaks with mediastinitis and systemic sepsis occurred after delayed spontaneous perforations (n = 7) or surgical and endoscopic interventions (n = 12). Six patients presented with fulminant anastomotic leaks. Seven patients had previous attempts to close the leak by surgery (n = 4) or stenting (2) or both (n = 1). The debrided defects measured up to 2 x 12 cm or involved three quarters of the anastomotic circumference and were closed either by a full thickness diaphragmatic flap (n = 13) or a pediculated intrathoracically transposed extrathoracic muscle flap (n = 6). All patients had postoperative contrast esophagography between days 7 and 10 and an endoscopic evaluation 4 to 6 months after surgery. RESULTS: There was no 30-day mortality. During follow-up (4 to 42 months), 16 patients (84%) revealed functional and morphological restoration of the esophagointestinal integrity without further interventions. One patient required serial dilatations for a stricture, and 1 underwent temporary stenting for a persistent fistula; both patients had normal control endoscopy during follow-up. A third patient requiring permanent stenting for stenosis died from gastrointestinal bleeding due to stent erosion during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Intrathoracic esophageal leaks may be closed efficiently by a muscle flap onlay approach in the presence of mediastinitis and where a primary repair seems risky. The same holds true for fulminant intrathoracic anastomotic leaks after esophagectomy or other surgical interventions at the gastroesophageal junction.

Evaluation of two long synthetic merozoite surface protein 2 peptides as malaria vaccine candidates.

Merozoite surface protein 2 (MSP2) is a promising vaccine candidate against Plasmodium falciparum blood stages. A recombinant 3D7 form of MSP2 was a subunit of Combination B, a blood stage vaccine tested in the field in Papua New Guinea. A selective effect in favour of the allelic family not represented by the vaccine argued for a MSP2 vaccine consisting of both dimorphic variants. An alternative approach to recombinant manufacture of vaccines is the production of long synthetic peptides (LSP). LSP exceeding a length of well over 100 amino acids can now be routinely synthesized. Synthetic production of vaccine antigens cuts the often time-consuming steps of protein expression and purification short. This considerably reduces the time for a candidate to reach the phase of clinical trials. Here we present the evaluation of two long synthetic peptides representing both allelic families of MSP2 as potential vaccine candidates. The constructs were well recognized by human immune sera from different locations and different age groups. Furthermore, peptide-specific antibodies in human immune sera were associated with protection from clinical malaria. The synthetic fragments share major antigenic properties with native MSP2. Immunization of mice with these antigens yielded high titre antibody responses and monoclonal antibodies recognized parasite-derived MSP2. Our results justify taking these candidate poly-peptides into further vaccine development.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Exploration of alpine orographic precipitation patterns with radar image processing and clustering techniques

A methodology of exploratory data analysis investigating the phenomenon of orographic precipitation enhancement is proposed. The precipitation observations obtained from three Swiss Doppler weather radars are analysed for the major precipitation event of August 2005 in the Alps. Image processing techniques are used to detect significant precipitation cells/pixels from radar images while filtering out spurious effects due to ground clutter. The contribution of topography to precipitation patterns is described by an extensive set of topographical descriptors computed from the digital elevation model at multiple spatial scales. Additionally, the motion vector field is derived from subsequent radar images and integrated into a set of topographic features to highlight the slopes exposed to main flows. Following the exploratory data analysis with a recent algorithm of spectral clustering, it is shown that orographic precipitation cells are generated under specific flow and topographic conditions. Repeatability of precipitation patterns in particular spatial locations is found to be linked to specific local terrain shapes, e.g. at the top of hills and on the upwind side of the mountains. This methodology and our empirical findings for the Alpine region provide a basis for building computational data-driven models of orographic enhancement and triggering of precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society .