246 resultados para LIKELIHOOD METHODS


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In the International Olympic Committee (IOC) accredited laboratories, specific methods have been developed to detect anabolic steroids in athletes' urine. The technique of choice to achieve this is gas-chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). In order to improve the efficiency of anti-doping programmes, the laboratories have defined new analytical strategies. The final sensitivity of the analytical procedure can be improved by choosing new technologies for use in detection, such as tandem mass spectrometry (MS-MS) or high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). A better sample preparation using immuno-affinity chromatography (IAC) is also a good tool for improving sensitivity. These techniques are suitable for the detection of synthetic anabolic steroids whose structure is not found naturally in the human body. The more and more evident use, on a large scale, of substances chemically similar to the endogenous steroids obliges both the laboratory and the sports authorities to use the steroid profile of the athlete in comparison with reference ranges from a population or with intraindividual reference values.

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Oscillations have been increasingly recognized as a core property of neural responses that contribute to spontaneous, induced, and evoked activities within and between individual neurons and neural ensembles. They are considered as a prominent mechanism for information processing within and communication between brain areas. More recently, it has been proposed that interactions between periodic components at different frequencies, known as cross-frequency couplings, may support the integration of neuronal oscillations at different temporal and spatial scales. The present study details methods based on an adaptive frequency tracking approach that improve the quantification and statistical analysis of oscillatory components and cross-frequency couplings. This approach allows for time-varying instantaneous frequency, which is particularly important when measuring phase interactions between components. We compared this adaptive approach to traditional band-pass filters in their measurement of phase-amplitude and phase-phase cross-frequency couplings. Evaluations were performed with synthetic signals and EEG data recorded from healthy humans performing an illusory contour discrimination task. First, the synthetic signals in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations highlighted two desirable features of the proposed algorithm vs. classical filter-bank approaches: resilience to broad-band noise and oscillatory interference. Second, the analyses with real EEG signals revealed statistically more robust effects (i.e. improved sensitivity) when using an adaptive frequency tracking framework, particularly when identifying phase-amplitude couplings. This was further confirmed after generating surrogate signals from the real EEG data. Adaptive frequency tracking appears to improve the measurements of cross-frequency couplings through precise extraction of neuronal oscillations.

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This paper characterizes and evaluates the potential of three commercial CT iterative reconstruction methods (ASIR?, VEO? and iDose(4 ()?())) for dose reduction and image quality improvement. We measured CT number accuracy, standard deviation (SD), noise power spectrum (NPS) and modulation transfer function (MTF) metrics on Catphan phantom images while five human observers performed four-alternative forced-choice (4AFC) experiments to assess the detectability of low- and high-contrast objects embedded in two pediatric phantoms. Results show that 40% and 100% ASIR as well as iDose(4) levels 3 and 6 do not affect CT number and strongly decrease image noise with relative SD constant in a large range of dose. However, while ASIR produces a shift of the NPS curve apex, less change is observed with iDose(4) with respect to FBP methods. With second-generation iterative reconstruction VEO, physical metrics are even further improved: SD decreased to 70.4% at 0.5 mGy and spatial resolution improved to 37% (MTF(50%)). 4AFC experiments show that few improvements in detection task performance are obtained with ASIR and iDose(4), whereas VEO makes excellent detections possible even at an ultra-low-dose (0.3 mGy), leading to a potential dose reduction of a factor 3 to 7 (67%-86%). In spite of its longer reconstruction time and the fact that clinical studies are still required to complete these results, VEO clearly confirms the tremendous potential of iterative reconstructions for dose reduction in CT and appears to be an important tool for patient follow-up, especially for pediatric patients where cumulative lifetime dose still remains high.

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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Invasive candidiasis is a severe infectious complication occurring mostly in onco-hematologic and surgical patients. Its conventional diagnosis is insensitive and often late, leading to a delayed treatment and a high mortality. The purpose of this article is to review recent contributions in the nonconventional diagnostic approaches of invasive candidiasis, both for the detection of the epidose and the characterization of the etiologic agent. RECENT FINDINGS: Antigen-based tests to detect invasive candidiasis comprise a specific test, mannan, as well as a nonspecific test, beta-D-glucan. Both have a moderate sensitivity and a high specificity, and cannot be recommended alone as a negative screening tool or a positive syndrome driven diagnostic tool. Molecular-based tests still have not reached the stage of rapid, easy to use, standardized tests ideally complementing blood culture at the time of blood sampling. New tests (fluorescence in-situ hybridization or mass spectrometry) significantly reduce the delay of identification of Candida at the species level in positive blood cultures, and should have a positive impact on earlier appropriate antifungal therapy and possibly on outcome. SUMMARY: Both antigen-based and molecular tests appear as promising new tools to complement and accelerate the conventional diagnosis of invasive candidiasis with an expected significant impact on earlier and more focused treatment and on prognosis.

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Fraud is as old as Mankind. There are an enormous number of historical documents which show the interaction between truth and untruth; therefore it is not really surprising that the prevalence of publication discrepancies is increasing. More surprising is that new cases especially in the medical field generate such a huge astonishment. In financial mathematics a statistical tool for detection of fraud is known which uses the knowledge of Newcomb and Benford regarding the distribution of natural numbers. This distribution is not equal and lower numbers are more likely to be detected compared to higher ones. In this investigation all numbers contained in the blinded abstracts of the 2009 annual meeting of the Swiss Society of Anesthesia and Resuscitation (SGAR) were recorded and analyzed regarding the distribution. A manipulated abstract was also included in the investigation. The χ(2)-test was used to determine statistical differences between expected and observed counts of numbers. There was also a faked abstract integrated in the investigation. A p<0.05 was considered significant. The distribution of the 1,800 numbers in the 77 submitted abstracts followed Benford's law. The manipulated abstract was detected by statistical means (difference in expected versus observed p<0.05). Statistics cannot prove whether the content is true or not but can give some serious hints to look into the details in such conspicuous material. These are the first results of a test for the distribution of numbers presented in medical research.

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Background: Newer antiepileptic drugs (AED) are increasingly prescribed, and seem to have a comparable efficacy as the classical AED, but are better tolerated. Very scarce data exist regarding their prognostic impact in patients with status epilepticus (SE). We therefore analyzed the evolution of prescription of newer AED between 2006-2010 in our prospective SE database, and assessed their impact on SE prognosis.¦Methods: We found 327 SE episodes occurring in 271 adults. The use of older versus newer AED (levetiracetam, pregabalin, topiramate, lacosamide) and its relationship to outcome (return to clinical baseline conditions, new handicap, or death) were analyzed. Logistic regression models were applied to adjust for known SE outcome predictors.¦Results: We observed an increasing prescription of newer AED over time (30% of patients received them at the study beginning, vs. 42% towards the end). In univariate analyses, patients treated with newer AED had worse outcome than those treated with classical AED only (19% vs 9% for mortality; 33% vs 64% for return to baseline, p<0.001). After adjustment for etiology and SE severity, use of newer AED was independently related to a reduced likelihood of return to baseline (p<0.001), but not to increased mortality.¦Conclusion: This retrospective study shows an increase of the use of newer AED for SE treatment, but does not suggest an improved prognosis following their prescription. Also in view of their higher price, well-designed, prospective assessments analyzing their impact on efficacy and tolerability should be conducted before a widespread use in SE.

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Bipolar disorder has a genetic component, but the mode of inheritance remains unclear. A previous genome scan conducted in 70 European families led to detect eight regions linked to bipolar disease. Here, we present an investigation of whether the phenotypic heterogeneity of the disorder corresponds to genetic heterogeneity in these regions using additional markers and an extended sample of families. The MLS statistic was used for linkage analyses. The predivided sample test and the maximum likelihood binomial methods were used to test genetic homogeneity between early-onset bipolar type I (cut-off of 22 years) and other types of the disorder (later onset of bipolar type I and early-onset bipolar type II), using a total of 138 independent bipolar-affected sib-pairs. Analysis of the extended sample of families supports linkage in four regions (2q14, 3p14, 16p23, and 20p12) of the eight regions of linkage suggested by our previous genome scan. Heterogeneity testing revealed genetic heterogeneity between early and late-onset bipolar type I in the 2q14 region (P = 0.0001). Only the early form of the bipolar disorder but not the late form appeared to be linked to this region. This region may therefore include a genetic factor either specifically involved in the early-onset bipolar type I or only influencing the age at onset (AAO). Our findings illustrate that stratification according to AAO may be valuable for the identification of genetic vulnerability polymorphisms.

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Bacteria can survive on hospital textiles and surfaces, from which they can be disseminated, representing a source of health care-associated infections (HCAIs). Surfaces containing copper (Cu), which is known for its bactericidal properties, could be an efficient way to lower the burden of potential pathogens. The antimicrobial activity of Cu-sputtered polyester surfaces, obtained by direct-current magnetron sputtering (DCMS), against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was tested. The Cu-polyester microstructure was characterized by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy to determine the microstructure of the Cu nanoparticles and by profilometry to assess the thickness of the layers. Sputtering at 300 mA for 160 s led to a Cu film thickness of 20 nm (100 Cu layers) containing 0.209% (wt/wt) polyester. The viability of MRSA strain ATCC 43300 on Cu-sputtered polyester was evaluated by four methods: (i) mechanical detachment, (ii) microcalorimetry, (iii) direct transfer onto plates, and (iv) stereomicroscopy. The low efficacy of mechanical detachment impeded bacterial viability estimations. Microcalorimetry provided only semiquantitative results. Direct transfer onto plates and stereomicroscopy seemed to be the most suitable methods to evaluate the bacterial inactivation potential of Cu-sputtered polyester surfaces, since they presented the least experimental bias. Cu-polyester samples sputtered for 160 s by DCMS were further tested against 10 clinical MRSA isolates and showed a high level of bactericidal activity, with a 4-log(10) reduction in the initial MRSA load (10(6) CFU) within 1 h. Cu-sputtered polyester surfaces might be of use to prevent the transmission of HCAI pathogens.

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INTRODUCTION: Hereditary retinoblastoma survivors have an increased risk for cranio-facial second primary tumours (SPT), especially after treatment with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). This multicentre study evaluates the clinical and imaging characteristics and outcomes of cranio-facial SPTs in irradiated retinoblastoma survivors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical and radiological data of 42 hereditary retinoblastoma patients with 44 second and third malignancies were reviewed. Radiological data included anatomic location and computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) characteristics. Cox regression and likelihood ratio chi-square test were used to evaluate differences in patients' survival rates. RESULTS: Cranio-facial SPTs were diagnosed at a median age of 13 years. Histological types included osteosarcomas (43%), rhabdomyosarcomas (20%) (57% embryonal, 43% alveolar) and a variety of other types of SPT (37%). Predilection sites were: temporal fossa (39%), ethmoid sinus (23%), orbit (18%), maxillary sinus (16%) and intracranial dura mater (4%). Most of the osteosarcomas (78%) and rhabdomyosarcomas (80%) occurred in patients treated with EBRT in the first year-of-life. Treatment of SPTs with a microscopically complete surgical resection led to a significantly better 5-year overall survival (OS) (P=0.017) and event-free survival (EFS) (P=0.012) compared to patients treated without surgery or incomplete resection (OS: 83% versus 52%; EFS: 80% versus 47%). CONCLUSIONS: Osteosarcomas and rhabdomyosarcomas are the most common cranio-facial SPTs in irradiated hereditary retinoblastoma survivors, which develop in specific locations and occur predominantly in patients irradiated in their first year-of-life. Microscopically complete surgical resection of SPTs is a major prognostic factor, suggesting the potential benefit of early detection by imaging.

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BACKGROUND: Anti-TNFα agents are commonly used for ulcerative colitis (UC) therapy in the event of non-response to conventional strategies or as colon-salvaging therapy. The objectives were to assess the appropriateness of biological therapies for UC patients and to study treatment discontinuation over time, according to appropriateness of treatment, as a measure of outcome. METHODS: We selected adult ulcerative colitis patients from the Swiss IBD cohort who had been treated with anti-TNFα agents. Appropriateness of the first-line anti-TNFα treatment was assessed using detailed criteria developed during the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Therapy for UC. Treatment discontinuation as an outcome was assessed for categories of appropriateness. RESULTS: Appropriateness of the first-line biological treatment was determined in 186 UC patients. For 64% of them, this treatment was considered appropriate. During follow-up, 37% of all patients discontinued biological treatment, 17% specifically because of failure. Time-to-failure of treatment was significantly different among patients on an appropriate biological treatment compared to those for whom the treatment was considered not appropriate (p=0.0007). Discontinuation rate after 2years was 26% compared to 54% between those two groups. Patients on inappropriate biological treatment were more likely to have severe disease, concomitant steroids and/or immunomodulators. They were also consistently more likely to suffer a failure of efficacy and to stop therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Appropriateness of first-line anti-TNFα therapy results in a greater likelihood of continuing with the therapy. In situations where biological treatment is uncertain or inappropriate, physicians should consider other options instead of prescribing anti-TNFα agents.

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PURPOSE: Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) youth are youth disengaged from major social institutions and constitute a worrying concern. However, little is known about this subgroup of vulnerable youth. This study aimed to examine if NEET youth differ from other contemporaries in terms of personality, mental health, and substance use and to provide longitudinal examination of NEET status, testing its stability and prospective pathways with mental health and substance use. METHODS: As part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, 4,758 young Swiss men in their early 20s answered questions concerning their current professional and educational status, personality, substance use, and symptomatology related to mental health. Descriptive statistics, generalized linear models for cross-sectional comparisons, and cross-lagged panel models for longitudinal associations were computed. RESULTS: NEET youth were 6.1% at baseline and 7.4% at follow-up with 1.4% being NEET at both time points. Comparisons between NEET and non-NEET youth showed significant differences in substance use and depressive symptoms only. Longitudinal associations showed that previous mental health, cannabis use, and daily smoking increased the likelihood of being NEET. Reverse causal paths were nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: NEET status seemed to be unlikely and transient among young Swiss men, associated with differences in mental health and substance use but not in personality. Causal paths presented NEET status as a consequence of mental health and substance use rather than a cause. Additionally, this study confirmed that cannabis use and daily smoking are public health problems. Prevention programs need to focus on these vulnerable youth to avoid them being disengaged.

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In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

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Background: The imatinib trough plasma concentration (C(min)) correlates with clinical response in cancer patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of plasma C(min) is therefore suggested. In practice, however, blood sampling for TDM is often not performed at trough. The corresponding measurement is thus only remotely informative about C(min) exposure. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations by using a Bayesian approach for the prediction of C(min), incorporating correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters, and to compare the predictive performance of this method with alternative approaches, by comparing predictions with actual measured trough levels, and with predictions obtained by a reference method, respectively. Methods: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method accounting for correlation (MAP-ρ) between pharmacokinetic parameters was developed on the basis of a population pharmacokinetic model, which was validated on external data. Thirty-one paired random and trough levels, observed in gastrointestinal stromal tumour patients, were then used for the evaluation of the Bayesian MAP-ρ method: individual C(min) predictions, derived from single random observations, were compared with actual measured trough levels for assessment of predictive performance (accuracy and precision). The method was also compared with alternative approaches: classical Bayesian MAP estimation assuming uncorrelated pharmacokinetic parameters, linear extrapolation along the typical elimination constant of imatinib, and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) with interaction. Predictions of all methods were finally compared with 'best-possible' predictions obtained by a reference method (NONMEM FOCE, using both random and trough observations for individual C(min) prediction). Results: The developed Bayesian MAP-ρ method accounting for correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters allowed non-biased prediction of imatinib C(min) with a precision of ±30.7%. This predictive performance was similar for the alternative methods that were applied. The range of relative prediction errors was, however, smallest for the Bayesian MAP-ρ method and largest for the linear extrapolation method. When compared with the reference method, predictive performance was comparable for all methods. The time interval between random and trough sampling did not influence the precision of Bayesian MAP-ρ predictions. Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib plasma concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian TDM. Classical Bayesian MAP estimation can be applied even without consideration of the correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters. Individual C(min) predictions are expected to vary less through Bayesian TDM than linear extrapolation. Bayesian TDM could be developed in the future for other targeted anticancer drugs and for the prediction of other pharmacokinetic parameters that have been correlated with clinical outcomes.