A case study of landslides and coping strategies in two villages of central-eastern Nepal

Landslides are an increasing problem in Nepal's Middle Hills due to both natural and human phenomena: mainly increasingly intense monsoon rains and a boom in rural road construction. This problem has largely been neglected due to underreporting of losses and the dispersed nature of landslides. Understanding how populations cope with landslides is a first step toward developing more effective landslide risk management programs. The present research focuses on two villages in Central-Eastern Nepal, both affected by active landslides but with different coping strategies. Research methods are interdisciplinary, based on a geological assessment of landslide risk and a socio-economic study of the villages using household questionnaires, focus group discussions and transect walks. Community risk maps are compared with geological landslide risk maps to better understand and communicate community risk perceptions, priorities and coping strategies. A modified typology of coping strategies is presented, based on previous work by Burton, Kates, and White (1993) that is useful for decision-makers for designing more effective programs for landslide mitigation. Main findings underscore that coping strategies, mainly seeking external assistance and outmigration, are closely linked to access to resources, ethnicity/social status and levels of community organization. Conclusions include the importance of investing in organizational skills, while building on local knowledge about landslide mitigation for reducing landslide risk. There is great potential to increase coping strategies by incorporating skills training on landslide mitigation in existing agricultural outreach and community forest user group training.

Stochastic inversion of tracer test and electrical geophysical data to estimate hydraulic conductivities.

Quantifying the spatial configuration of hydraulic conductivity (K) in heterogeneous geological environments is essential for accurate predictions of contaminant transport, but is difficult because of the inherent limitations in resolution and coverage associated with traditional hydrological measurements. To address this issue, we consider crosshole and surface-based electrical resistivity geophysical measurements, collected in time during a saline tracer experiment. We use a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (McMC) methodology to jointly invert the dynamic resistivity data, together with borehole tracer concentration data, to generate multiple posterior realizations of K that are consistent with all available information. We do this within a coupled inversion framework, whereby the geophysical and hydrological forward models are linked through an uncertain relationship between electrical resistivity and concentration. To minimize computational expense, a facies-based subsurface parameterization is developed. The Bayesian-McMC methodology allows us to explore the potential benefits of including the geophysical data into the inverse problem by examining their effect on our ability to identify fast flowpaths in the subsurface, and their impact on hydrological prediction uncertainty. Using a complex, geostatistically generated, two-dimensional numerical example representative of a fluvial environment, we demonstrate that flow model calibration is improved and prediction error is decreased when the electrical resistivity data are included. The worth of the geophysical data is found to be greatest for long spatial correlation lengths of subsurface heterogeneity with respect to wellbore separation, where flow and transport are largely controlled by highly connected flowpaths.

Extraintestinal manifestations in inflammatory bowel disease: frequency and associated risk factors in the nationwide Swiss IBD cohort study (SIBDCS)

Background: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in Crohnʼs disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are scarce. Goal: to evaluate prevalences, forms of EIM and risk factors in a large nationwide IBD cohort. Methods: Data from validated physician enrolment questionnaires of the adult Swiss IBD cohort were analyzed. Logistic regression models were used to identify EIM risk factors. Results: 950 patients were included, 580 (61%) with CD (mean age 43yrs) and 370 (39%) with UC (mean age 49yrs), of these, 249 (43%) of CD and 113 (31%) of UC patients had one to 5 EIM. The following EIM were found: arthritis (CD 33%, UC 21%), aphthous stomatitis (CD 10%, UC 4%), uveitis (CD 6%, UC 4%), erythema nodosum (CD 6%, UC 3%), ankylosing spondylitis (CD 6%, UC 2%), psoriasis (CD 2%, UC 1%), pyoderma gangrenosum (CD and UC each 2%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (CD 1%, UC 4%). Logistic regression in CD identified the following items as risk factors for ongoing EIM: active disease (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.23, P=0.01), positive IBD family history (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.07-2.92, P=0.025). No risk factors were identified in UC patients. Conclusions: EIM are a frequent problem in CD and UC patients. Active disease and positive IBD family history are associated with ongoing EIM in CD patients. Identification of EIM prevalence and associated risk factors may result in increased awareness for this problem and thereby facilitate their diagnosis and management.

Assessment of cytomegalovirus-specific cell-mediated immunity for the prediction of cytomegalovirus disease in high-risk solid-organ transplant recipients: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease remains an important problem in solid-organ transplant recipients, with the greatest risk among donor CMV-seropositive, recipient-seronegative (D(+)/R(-)) patients. CMV-specific cell-mediated immunity may be able to predict which patients will develop CMV disease. METHODS: We prospectively included D(+)/R(-) patients who received antiviral prophylaxis. We used the Quantiferon-CMV assay to measure interferon-γ levels following in vitro stimulation with CMV antigens. The test was performed at the end of prophylaxis and 1 and 2 months later. The primary outcome was the incidence of CMV disease at 12 months after transplant. We calculated positive and negative predictive values of the assay for protection from CMV disease. RESULTS: Overall, 28 of 127 (22%) patients developed CMV disease. Of 124 evaluable patients, 31 (25%) had a positive result, 81 (65.3%) had a negative result, and 12 (9.7%) had an indeterminate result (negative mitogen and CMV antigen) with the Quantiferon-CMV assay. At 12 months, patients with a positive result had a subsequent lower incidence of CMV disease than patients with a negative and an indeterminate result (6.4% vs 22.2% vs 58.3%, respectively; P < .001). Positive and negative predictive values of the assay for protection from CMV disease were 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], .74-.98) and 0.27 (95% CI, .18-.37), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This assay may be useful to predict if patients are at low, intermediate, or high risk for the development of subsequent CMV disease after prophylaxis. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00817908.

Situating forensic traces in time

Situating events and traces in time is an essential problem in investigations. To date, among the typical ques- 21¦tions issued in forensic science, time has generally been unexplored. The reason for this can be traced to the 22¦complexity of the overall problem, addressed by several scientists in very limited projects usually stimulated 23¦by a specific case. Considering that such issues are recurrent and transcending the treatment of each trace 24¦separately, the formalisation of a framework to address dating issues in criminal investigation is undeniably 25¦needed. Through an iterative process consisting of extracting recurrent aspects discovered from the study of 26¦problems encountered by practitioners and reported in the literature, common mechanisms were extracted 27¦and provide understanding of underlying factors encountered in forensic practise. Three complementary ap- 28¦proaches are thus highlighted and described to formalise a preliminary framework that can be applied for the 29¦dating of traces, objects, persons and indirectly events.

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) as a screening tool for excessive drinking in primary care: reliability and validity of a French version.

BACKGROUND: Excessive drinking is a major problem in Western countries. AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test) is a 10-item questionnaire developed as a transcultural screening tool to detect excessive alcohol consumption and dependence in primary health care settings. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study is to validate a French version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). METHODS: We conducted a validation cross-sectional study in three French-speaking areas (Paris, Geneva and Lausanne). We examined psychometric properties of AUDIT as its internal consistency, and its capacity to correctly diagnose alcohol abuse or dependence as defined by DSM-IV and to detect hazardous drinking (defined as alcohol intake >30 g pure ethanol per day for men and >20 g of pure ethanol per day for women). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and Receiver Operator Characteristic curves. Finally, we compared the ability of AUDIT to accurately detect "alcohol abuse/dependence" with that of CAGE and MAST. RESULTS: 1207 patients presenting to outpatient clinics (Switzerland, n = 580) or general practitioners' (France, n = 627) successively completed CAGE, MAST and AUDIT self-administered questionnaires, and were independently interviewed by a trained addiction specialist. AUDIT showed a good capacity to discriminate dependent patients (with AUDIT > or =13 for males, sensitivity 70.1%, specificity 95.2%, PPV 85.7%, NPV 94.7% and for females sensitivity 94.7%, specificity 98.2%, PPV 100%, NPV 99.8%); and hazardous drinkers (with AUDIT > or =7, for males sensitivity 83.5%, specificity 79.9%, PPV 55.0%, NPV 82.7% and with AUDIT > or =6 for females, sensitivity 81.2%, specificity 93.7%, PPV 64.0%, NPV 72.0%). AUDIT gives better results than MAST and CAGE for detecting "Alcohol abuse/dependence" as showed on the comparative ROC curves. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT questionnaire remains a good screening instrument for French-speaking primary care.

Official positions of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) on DXA evaluation in children and adolescents.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most widely used technical instrument for evaluating bone mineral content (BMC) and density (BMD) in patients of all ages. However, its use in pediatric patients, during growth and development, poses a much more complex problem in terms of both the technical aspects and the interpretation of the results. For the adults population, there is a well-defined term of reference: the peak value of BMD attained by young healthy subjects at the end of skeletal growth. During childhood and adolescence, the comparison can be made only with healthy subjects of the same age, sex and ethnicity, but the situation is compounded by the wide individual variation in the process of skeletal growth (pubertal development, hormone action, body size and bone size). The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) organized a Pediatric Position Development Conference to discuss the specific problems of bone densitometry in growing subjects (9-19 years of age) and to provide essential recommendations for its clinical use.

The business model ontology a proposition in a design science approach

The goal of this dissertation is to find and provide the basis for a managerial tool that allows a firm to easily express its business logic. The methodological basis for this work is design science, where the researcher builds an artifact to solve a specific problem. In this case the aim is to provide an ontology that makes it possible to explicit a firm's business model. In other words, the proposed artifact helps a firm to formally describe its value proposition, its customers, the relationship with them, the necessary intra- and inter-firm infrastructure and its profit model. Such an ontology is relevant because until now there is no model that expresses a company's global business logic from a pure business point of view. Previous models essentially take an organizational or process perspective or cover only parts of a firm's business logic. The four main pillars of the ontology, which are inspired by management science and enterprise- and processmodeling, are product, customer interface, infrastructure and finance. The ontology is validated by case studies, a panel of experts and managers. The dissertation also provides a software prototype to capture a company's business model in an information system. The last part of the thesis consists of a demonstration of the value of the ontology in business strategy and Information Systems (IS) alignment. Structure of this thesis: The dissertation is structured in nine parts: Chapter 1 presents the motivations of this research, the research methodology with which the goals shall be achieved and why this dissertation present a contribution to research. Chapter 2 investigates the origins, the term and the concept of business models. It defines what is meant by business models in this dissertation and how they are situated in the context of the firm. In addition this chapter outlines the possible uses of the business model concept. Chapter 3 gives an overview of the research done in the field of business models and enterprise ontologies. Chapter 4 introduces the major contribution of this dissertation: the business model ontology. In this part of the thesis the elements, attributes and relationships of the ontology are explained and described in detail. Chapter 5 presents a case study of the Montreux Jazz Festival which's business model was captured by applying the structure and concepts of the ontology. In fact, it gives an impression of how a business model description based on the ontology looks like. Chapter 6 shows an instantiation of the ontology into a prototype tool: the Business Model Modelling Language BM2L. This is an XML-based description language that allows to capture and describe the business model of a firm and has a large potential for further applications. Chapter 7 is about the evaluation of the business model ontology. The evaluation builds on literature review, a set of interviews with practitioners and case studies. Chapter 8 gives an outlook on possible future research and applications of the business model ontology. The main areas of interest are alignment of business and information technology IT/information systems IS and business model comparison. Finally, chapter 9 presents some conclusions.

On solving fair exchange and related distributed problems in Byzantine environments

Abstract The solvability of the problem of fair exchange in a synchronous system subject to Byzantine failures is investigated in this work. The fair exchange problem arises when a group of processes are required to exchange digital items in a fair manner, which means that either each process obtains the item it was expecting or no process obtains any information on, the inputs of others. After introducing a novel specification of fair exchange that clearly separates safety and liveness, we give an overview of the difficulty of solving such a problem in the context of a fully-connected topology. On one hand, we show that no solution to fair exchange exists in the absence of an identified process that every process can trust a priori; on the other, a well-known solution to fair exchange relying on a trusted third party is recalled. These two results lead us to complete our system model with a flexible representation of the notion of trust. We then show that fair exchange is solvable if and only if a connectivity condition, named the reachable majority condition, is satisfied. The necessity of the condition is proven by an impossibility result and its sufficiency by presenting a general solution to fair exchange relying on a set of trusted processes. The focus is then turned towards a specific network topology in order to provide a fully decentralized, yet realistic, solution to fair exchange. The general solution mentioned above is optimized by reducing the computational load assumed by trusted processes as far as possible. Accordingly, our fair exchange protocol relies on trusted tamperproof modules that have limited communication abilities and are only required in key steps of the algorithm. This modular solution is then implemented in the context of a pedagogical application developed for illustrating and apprehending the complexity of fair exchange. This application, which also includes the implementation of a wide range of Byzantine behaviors, allows executions of the algorithm to be set up and monitored through a graphical display. Surprisingly, some of our results on fair exchange seem contradictory with those found in the literature of secure multiparty computation, a problem from the field of modern cryptography, although the two problems have much in common. Both problems are closely related to the notion of trusted third party, but their approaches and descriptions differ greatly. By introducing a common specification framework, a comparison is proposed in order to clarify their differences and the possible origins of the confusion between them. This leads us to introduce the problem of generalized fair computation, a generalization of fair exchange. Finally, a solution to this new problem is given by generalizing our modular solution to fair exchange

Deposits of the sandy braided South Saskatchewan River: Implications for the use of modern analogs in reconstructing channel dimensions in reservoir characterization

Estimation of the dimensions of fluvial geobodies from core data is a notoriously difficult problem in reservoir modeling. To try and improve such estimates and, hence, reduce uncertainty in geomodels, data on dunes, unit bars, cross-bar channels, and compound bars and their associated deposits are presented herein from the sand-bed braided South Saskatchewan River, Canada. These data are used to test models that relate the scale of the formative bed forms to the dimensions of the preserved deposits and, therefore, provide an insight as to how such deposits may be preserved over geologic time. The preservation of bed-form geometry is quantified by comparing the Alluvial architecture above and below the maximum erosion depth of the modem channel deposits. This comparison shows that there is no significant difference in the mean set thickness of dune cross-strata above and below the basal erosion surface of the contemporary channel, thus suggesting that dimensional relationships between dune deposits and the formative bed-form dimensions are likely to be valid from both recent and older deposits. The data show that estimates of mean bankfull flow depth derived from dune, unit bar, and cross-bar channel deposits are all very similar. Thus, the use of all these metrics together can provide a useful check that all components and scales of the alluvial architecture have been identified correctly when building reservoir models. The data also highlight several practical issues with identifying and applying data relating to cross-strata. For example, the deposits of unit bars were found to be severely truncated in length and width, with only approximately 10% of the mean bar-form length remaining, and thus making identification in section difficult. For similar reasons, the deposits of compound bars were found to be especially difficult to recognize, and hence, estimates of channel depth based on this method may be problematic. Where only core data are available (i.e., no outcrop data exist), formative flow depths are suggested to be best reconstructed using cross-strata formed by dunes. However, theoretical relationships between the distribution of set thicknesses and formative dune height are found to result in slight overestimates of the latter and, hence, mean bankfull flow depths derived from these measurements. This article illustrates that the preservation of fluvial cross-strata and, thus, the paleohydraulic inferences that can be drawn from them, are a function of the ratio of the size and migration rate of bed forms and the time scale of aggradation and channel migration. These factors must thus be considered when deciding on appropriate length:thickness ratios for the purposes of object-based modeling in reservoir characterization.

Assessment of the chemosensitizing activity of TAT-RasGAP317-326 in childhood cancers.

Although current anti-cancer protocols are reasonably effective, treatment-associated long-term side effects, induced by lack of specificity of the anti-cancer procedures, remain a challenging problem in pediatric oncology. TAT-RasGAP317-326 is a RasGAP-derived cell-permeable peptide that acts as a sensitizer to various anti-cancer treatments in adult tumor cells. In the present study, we assessed the effect of TAT-RasGAP317-326 in several childhood cancer cell lines. The RasGAP-derived peptide-induced cell death was analyzed in several neuroblastoma, Ewing sarcoma and leukemia cell lines (as well as in normal lymphocytes). Cell death was evaluated using flow cytometry methods in the absence or in the presence of the peptide in combination with various genotoxins used in the clinics (4-hydroperoxycyclophosphamide, etoposide, vincristine and doxorubicin). All tested pediatric tumors, in response to at least one genotoxin, were sensitized by TAT-RasGAP317-326. The RasGAP-derived peptide did not increase cell death of normal lymphocytes, alone or in combination with the majority of the tested chemotherapies. Consequently, TAT-RasGAP317-326 may benefit children with tumors by increasing the efficacy of anti-cancer therapies notably by allowing reductions in anti-cancer drug dosage and the associated drug-induced side effects.

Policy learning in Europe : social policy and labour market reforms in 11 countries

This report compares policy learning processes in 11 European countries. Based on the country reports that were produced by the national teams of the INSPIRES project, this paper develops an argument that connects problem pressure and politicization to learning in different labor market innovations. In short, we argue that learning efforts are most likely to impact on policy change if there is a certain problem pressure that clearly necessitates political action. On the other hand, if problem pressure is very low, or so high that governments need to react immediately, chances are low that learning impacts on policy change. The second part of our argument contends that learning impacts on policy change especially if a problem is not very politicized, i.e. there are no main conflicts concerning a reform, because then, solutions are wound up in the search for a compromise. Our results confirm our first hypothesis regarding the connection between problem pressure and policy learning. Governments learn indeed up to a certain degree of problem pressure. However, once political action becomes really urgent, i.e. in anti-crisis policies, there is no time and room for learning. On the other hand, learning occurred independently from the politicization of problem. In fact, in countries that have a consensual political system, learning occurred before the decision on a reform, whereas in majoritarian systems, learning happened after the adoption of a policy during the process of implementation.

Efficient total variation algorithm for fetal MRI reconstruction

Fetal MRI reconstruction aims at finding a high-resolution image given a small set of low-resolution images. It is usually modeled as an inverse problem where the regularization term plays a central role in the reconstruction quality. Literature has considered several regularization terms s.a. Dirichlet/Laplacian energy [1], Total Variation (TV)based energies [2,3] and more recently non-local means [4]. Although TV energies are quite attractive because of their ability in edge preservation, standard explicit steepest gradient techniques have been applied to optimize fetal-based TV energies. The main contribution of this work lies in the introduction of a well-posed TV algorithm from the point of view of convex optimization. Specifically, our proposed TV optimization algorithm for fetal reconstruction is optimal w.r.t. the asymptotic and iterative convergence speeds O(1/n(2)) and O(1/root epsilon), while existing techniques are in O(1/n) and O(1/epsilon). We apply our algorithm to (1) clinical newborn data, considered as ground truth, and (2) clinical fetal acquisitions. Our algorithm compares favorably with the literature in terms of speed and accuracy.

Evidence for Parachlamydia in bovine abortion.

Bovine abortion of unknown infectious aetiology still remains a major economic problem. In this study, we focused on a new possible abortigenic agent called Parachlamydia acanthamoebae. Retrospective samples (n=235) taken from late-term abortions in cattle were investigated by real-time diagnostic PCR for Chlamydiaceae and Parachlamydia spp., respectively. Histological sections of cases positive by real-time PCR for any Chlamydia-related agent were further examined by immunohistochemistry using specific antibodies. Chlamydophila abortus was detected only in three cases (1.3%) by real-time PCR and ArrayTube Microarray playing a less important role in bovine abortion compared to the situation in small ruminants in Switzerland. By real-time PCR as many as 43 of 235 (18.3%) cases turned out to be positive for Parachlamydia. The presence of Parachlamydia within placental lesions was confirmed in 35 cases (81.4%) by immunohistochemistry. The main histopathological feature in parachlamydial abortion was purulent to necrotizing placentitis (25/43). Parachlamydia should be considered as a new abortigenic agent in Swiss cattle. Since Parachlamydia may be involved in lower respiratory tract infections in humans, bovine abortion material should be handled with care given the possible zoonotic risk.