Cognitive Issues in Fingerprint Analysis: Inter- and Intra-Expert Consistency and the Effect of a "Target" Comparison

Deciding whether two fingerprint marks originate from the same source requires examination and comparison of their features. Many cognitive factors play a major role in such information processing. In this paper we examined the consistency (both between- and within-experts) in the analysis of latent marks, and whether the presence of a 'target' comparison print affects this analysis. Our findings showed that the context of a comparison print affected analysis of the latent mark, possibly influencing allocation of attention, visual search, and threshold for determining a 'signal'. We also found that even without the context of the comparison print there was still a lack of consistency in analysing latent marks. Not only was this reflected by inconsistency between different experts, but the same experts at different times were inconsistent with their own analysis. However, the characterization of these inconsistencies depends on the standard and definition of what constitutes inconsistent. Furthermore, these effects were not uniform; the lack of consistency varied across fingerprints and experts. We propose solutions to mediate variability in the analysis of friction ridge skin.

International Standardisation and Local Participatory Dynamics : The INTERNORM Project

This paper presents a pilot project (INTERNORM) funded by the University of Lausanne (2010 - 2013) to support the involvement of civil society organisations (CSO) in international standard setting bodies such as the ISO. It analyses how a distinct participatory mechanism can influence the institutional environment of technical diplomacy in which standards are shaped. The project is an attempt to respond to the democratic deficit attested in the field of international standardisation, formally open to civil society participation, but still largely dominated by expert knowledge and market players. Many international standards have direct implications on society as a whole, but CSOs (consumers and environmental associations, trade unions) are largely under-represented in negotiation arenas. The paper draws upon international relations literature on new institutional forms in global governance and studies of participation in science and technology. It argues that there are significant limitations to the rise of civil society participation in such global governance mechanisms. The INTERNORM project has been designed as a platform of knowledge exchange between CSO and academic experts, with earmarked funding and official membership to a national standardisation body. But INTERNORM cannot substitute for a long- established lack of resources in time, money and expertise of CSOs. Despite high entry costs into technical diplomacy, participation thus appears as less a matter of upstream engagement, or of procedure only, than of dedicated means to shift the geometry of actors and the framing of socio-technical change.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Une vue globale du secteur ambulatoire: étude structurelle et fonctionnelle dans les cantons de Vaud et Fribourg. [A general view of the ambulatory care sector: Structural and functional study in the cantons of Vaud and Fribourg].

The project "Quantification and qualification of ambulatory health care", financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation and covering the Cantons of Vaud and Fribourg, has two main goals: --a structural study of the elements of the ambulatory care sector. This is done through inventories of the professions concerned (physicians, public health nurses, physiotherapists, pharmacists, medical laboratories), allowing to better characterize the "offer". This inventory work includes the collect and analysis of existing statistical data as well as surveys, by questionnaires sent (from September 1980) to the different professions and by interviews. --a functional study, inspired from the US National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and from similar studies elsewhere, in order to investigate the modes of practice of various providers, with particular regard to interprofessional collaboration (through studying referrals from the ones to the others). The first months of the project have been used for a methodological research in this regard, centered on the use of systems analysis, and for the elaboration of adequate instruments.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

The epidemiologic transition to chronic diseases in developing countries: cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in Seychelles (Indian Ocean).

The occurrence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and related risk factors was evaluated in Seychelles, a middle level income country, as accumulating evidence supports increasing rates of CVD in developing countries. CVD mortality was obtained from vital statistics for two periods, 1984-5 and 1991-3. CVD morbidity was estimated by retrospective review of discharge diagnoses for all admissions to medical wards in 1990-1992. Levels of CVD risk factors in the population were assessed in 1989 through a population-based survey. In 1991-93, standardized mortality rates were in males and females respectively, 80.9 and 38.8 for cerebrovascular disease and 92.9 and 47.0 for ischemic heart disease. CVD accounted for 25.2% of all admissions to medical wards. Among the general population aged 35-64, 30% had high blood pressure, 52% of males smoked, and 28% of females were obese. These findings substantiate the current health transition to CVD in Seychelles. More generally, epidemiologic data on CVD mortality, morbidity, and related risk factors, as well as similar indicators for other chronic diseases, should more consistently appear in national and international reports of human development to help emphasize, in the health policy making scene, the current transition to chronic diseases in developing countries and the subsequent need for appropriate control and prevention programs.

Evolution of the Pelagonian carbonate platform complex and the adjacent oceanic realm in response to plate tectonic forcing (Late Triassic and Jurassic), Evvoia, Greece

The Late Triassic and Jurassic platform and the oceanic complexes in Evvoia, Greece, share a complementary plate-tectonic evolution. Shallow marine carbonate deposition responded to changing rates of subsidence and uplift, whilst the adjacent ocean underwent spreading, and then convergence, collision and finally obduction over the platform complex. Late Triassic ocean spreading correlated with platform subsidence and the formation of a long-persisting peritidal passive-margin platform. Incipient drowning occurred from the Sinemurian to the late Middle Jurassic. This subsidence correlated with intra-oceanic subduction and plate convergence that led to supra-subduction calc-alkaline magmatism and the formation of a primitive volcanic arc. During the Middle Jurassic, plate collision caused arc uplift above the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) in the oceanic realm, and related thrust-faulting, on the platform, led to sub-aerial exposures. Patch-reefs developed there during the Late Oxfordian to Kimmeridgian. Advanced oceanic nappe-loading caused platform drowning below the CCD during the Tithonian, which is documented by intercalations of reefal turbidites with non-carbonate radiolarites. Radiolarites and bypass-turbidites, consisting of siliciclastic greywacke, terminate the platform succession beneath the emplaced oceanic nappe during late Tithonian to Valanginian time.

A two-level analysis of the determinants of direct democratic choices in European, immigration and foreign policy in Switzerland

This article employs a unique data set - covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration/asylum policy held between 1992 and 2006 in Switzerland - in order to examine the conditional impact of context upon utilitarian, cultural, political and cognitive determinants of individual attitudes toward international openness. Our results reveal clear patterns of cross-level interactions between individual determinants and the project-related context of the vote. Thus, although party cues and political competence have a strong impact on individuals' support for international openness, this impact is substantially mediated by the type of coalition that is operating within the party elite. Similarly, subjective utilitarian and cultural considerations influence the voters' decision in interaction with the content of the proposal submitted to the voters as well as with the framing of the voting campaign.

Effect of n-3 fatty acids on cerebral markers and the inflammatory response in sepsis

Introduction ICM+ software encapsulates our 20 years' experience in brain monitoring. It collects data from a variety of bedside monitors and produces time trends of parameters defi ned using confi gurable mathematical formulae. To date it is being used in nearly 40 clinical research centres worldwide. We present its application for continuous monitoring of cerebral autoregulation using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). Methods Data from multiple bedside monitors are processed by ICM+ in real time using a large selection of signal processing methods. These include various time and frequency domain analysis functions as well as fully customisable digital fi lters. The fi nal results are displayed in a variety of ways including simple time trends, as well as time window based histograms, cross histograms, correlations, and so forth. All this allows complex information from bedside monitors to be summarized in a concise fashion and presented to medical and nursing staff in a simple way that alerts them to the development of various pathological processes. Results One hundred and fi fty patients monitored continuously with NIRS, arterial blood pressure (ABP) and intracranial pressure (ICP), where available, were included in this study. There were 40 severely headinjured adult patients, 27 SAH patients (NCCU, Cambridge); 60 patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass (John Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore) and 23 patients with sepsis (University Hospital, Basel). In addition, MCA fl ow velocity (FV) was monitored intermittently using transcranial Doppler. FV-derived and ICP-derived pressure reactivity indices (PRx, Mx), as well as NIRS-derived reactivity indices (Cox, Tox, Thx) were calculated and showed signifi cant correlation with each other in all cohorts. Errorbar charts showing reactivity index PRx versus CPP (optimal CPP chart) as well as similar curves for NIRS indices versus CPP and ABP were also demonstrated. Conclusions ICM+ software is proving to be a very useful tool for enhancing the battery of available means for monitoring cerebral vasoreactivity and potentially facilitating autoregulation guided therapy. Complexity of data analysis is also hidden inside loadable profi les, thus allowing investigators to take full advantage of validated protocols including advanced processing formulas.

Comparing the horizontal and vertical individualism and collectivism scale and the Auckland individualism and collectivism scale in two cultures: Switzerland and South Africa

This study investigated the psychometric properties of the Horizontal and Vertical Individualism and Collectivism Scale (HVIC) and the Auckland Individualism and Collectivism Scale (AICS). The sample consisted of 1,403 working individuals from Switzerland (N = 585) and from South Africa (N = 818). Principal component factor analyses indicated that a two-factor structure replicated well across the two countries for both scales. In addition, the HVIC four-factor structure replicated well across countries, whereas the responsibility dimension of individualism of the AICS replicated poorly. Confirmatory factor analyses provided satisfactory support to the original theoretical models for both the HVIC and the AICS. Equivalence measurement indices indicated that the cross-cultural replicability properties of both instruments are generally acceptable. However, canonical correlations and correlations between the HVIC and AICS dimensions confirm that these two instruments differ in their underlying meaning of the individualism and collectivism constructs, suggesting that these two instruments assess individualism and collectivism differently.

Relation between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cardiovascular and renal markers in a middle-income country in the African region.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is associated with several cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and with renal function markers. However, these associations have not been examined in populations in the African region. We analyzed the distribution of hs-CRP and the relationship with a broad set of CVRF, renal markers and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), in the Seychelles (African region). METHODS: We conducted a survey in the population aged 25-64years (n=1255, participation rate: 80.2%). Analyses were restricted to persons of predominantly African descent (n=1011). RESULTS: Mean and median hs-CRP serum concentrations (mg/l) were 3.1 (SD 7.6) and 1.4 (IQR 0.7-2.9) in men and 4.5 (SD 6.7) and 2.2 (IQR 1.0-5.4) in women (p<0.001 for difference between men and women). hs-CRP was significantly associated with several conventional CVRF, and particularly strongly with markers of adiposity. With regards to renal markers, hs-CRP was strongly associated with cystatin C and with microalbuminuria but not with creatinine. hs-CRP was not associated with IMT. CONCLUSIONS: Serum concentration of hs-CRP was significantly associated with sex, several CVRF and selected renal function markers, which extends similar findings in Europe and in North America to a population in the African region. These findings can contribute to guide recommendations for the use of hs-CRP in clinical practice in the region.