Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

A two-week workshop to promote cardiovascular disease prevention programs in countries with limited resources.

Training is a crucial tool for building the capacity necessary for prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in developing countries. This paper summarizes some features of a 2-week workshop aimed at enabling local health professionals to initiate a comprehensive CVD prevention and control program in a context of limited resources. The workshops have been organized in the regions where CVD prevention programs are being contemplated, in cooperation with health authorities of the concerned regions. The workshop's content includes a broad variety of issues related to CVD prevention and control, and to program development. Strong emphasis is placed on "learning by doing," and groups of 5-6 participants conduct a small-scale epidemiological study during the first week; during the second week, they draft a virtual program of CVD prevention and control adapted to the local situation. This practice-oriented workshop focuses on building expertise among anticipated key players, strengthening networks among relevant health professionals, and advocating the urgent need to tackle the emerging CVD epidemic in developing countries.

Secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures : room for improvement

Résumé : Introduction : l'ostéoporose est une maladie fréquente, invalidante, sous-diagnostiquée et sous-traitée, alors qu'il existe des évidences cliniques, densitométriques et biologiques de l'efficacité de la prévention secondaire. Matériel et méthode : dans cette étude, nous décrivons les habitudes de prescription de traitements en prévention secondaire dans les 6 mois qui suivent une fracture de fragilité et définissons les catégories de femmes recevant ou non un traitement, selon le type de fractures, les antécédents fracturaires et les données socio-démographiques. Il s'agit d'une étude suisse de cohorte, prospective de 7609 femmes de 70 ans et plus, suivies de 1998 à 2000. Deux groupes de patientes ont été analysés : celles avec un événement fracturaire durant le suivi (3 sous-groupes de fractures ont été considérés fractures vertébrales, fractures du radius distal et fractures de l'humérus proximal) et celles sans fractures durant le suivi (groupe contrôle). La détermination des événements fracturaires et l'instauration d'un traitement s'est faite par l'envoi aux patientes et à leurs médecins traitants d'un questionnaire structuré. Dans cette étude, le but primaire est de décrire les attitudes médicales de prévention secondaire, le but secondaire d'analyser les motifs dé décision thérapeutique (type de fracture, antécédents de fractures), alors que le but tertiaire cherche à caractériser les femmes non traitées. Résultats, discussion : 7354 femmes ont été incluses dans cette étude, 183 dans le groupe fracture et 7171 dans le groupe contrôle. Le suivi moyen a été de 21 mois. L'introduction d'un traitement est restée rare dans chaque catégorie de fracture et a été plus importante pour le sous-groupe avec fracture vertébrale (p<0.001). La seule donnée associée à l'adjonction d'un traitement a été la présence d'un antécédent anamnestique de fracture vertébrale. La description des attitudes thérapeutiques après une fracture de fragilité, a montré que. 44 % des femmes ne reçoivent aucun traitement en prévention secondaire. Seule la fracture vertébrale et les antécédents de fracture vertébrale entraînent une modification de l'attitude thérapeutique des médecins traitants mais de façon encore insuffisante puisque plus de 50 % des femmes avec une fracture de vertèbre n'ont aucun changement dans leur prise en charge. Les femmes non traitées ne différaient pas des autres sur un plan socio-démographique. Le nombre de patientes dans chaque sous-groupe est relativement faible ce qui limite !a puissance statistique de l'analyse. Les données consistent essentiellement en du « selfreporting » ce qui peut limiter la signification de celles-ci. Les résultats sont cependant suffisamment inquiétants pour que de nouvelles campagnes d'information soient lancées auprès des médecins de .premiers recours quant à la nécessité d'instaurer un traitement efficace lors de la survenue d'une fracture clinique ou radiologique chez une femme en post-ménopause.

Factors favoring a degradation or an improvement in activities of daily living (ADL) performance among nursing home (NH) residents: A survival analysis.

Different factors influence ADL performance among nursing home (NH) residents in long term care. The aim was to investigate which factors were associated with a significant change of ADL performance in NH residents, and whether or not these factors were gender-specific. The design was a survival analysis. The 10,199 participants resided in ninety Swiss NHs. Their ADL performance had been assessed by the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) in the period from 1997 to 2007. Relevant change in ADL performance was defined as 2 levels of change on the ADL scale between two successive assessments. The occurrence of either an improvement or a degradation of the ADL status) was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The analysis included a total of 10,199 NH residents. Each resident received between 2 and 23 assessments. Poor balance, incontinence, impaired cognition, a low BMI, impaired vision, no daily contact with proxies, impaired hearing and the presence of depression were, by hierarchical order, significant risk factors for NH residents to experience a degradation of ADL performance. Residents, who were incontinent, cognitively impaired or had a high BMI were significantly less likely to improve their ADL abilities. Male residents with cancer were prone to see their ADL improve. The year of NH entry was significantly associated with either degradation or improvement of ADL performance. Measures aiming at improving balance and continence, promoting physical activity, providing appropriate nourishment and cognitive enhancement are important for ADL performance in NH residents.

Rapid Improvement in Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) in Gouty Arthritis Patients Treated with Canakinumab (ACZ885) Compared to Triamcinolone Acetonide

Background: Gouty arthritis is a painful inflammatory disease with a significant impact on patients' HRQoL. In gouty arthritis, the inflammatory response is initiated by interleukin-1b (IL-1b) release, due to activation of the NALP3 inflammasome by MSU crystals. Canakinumab, a fully human anti-IL-1b antibody has a long half-life and has been shown to control inflammation in gouty arthritis. This study evaluated changes in HRQoL in gouty arthritis patients following treatment with canakinumab or triamcinolone acetonide (TA).Methods: This was an 8-week, dose-ranging, multi-center, active controlled, single-blind study. Patients (>=18 to <=80 years) experiencing an acute gouty arthritis flare, refractory to or contraindicated to NSAlDs and/or colchicine, were randomized to canakinumab 10, 25, 50, 90, 150 mg sc or TA 40 mg im. HRQoL was assessed as an exploratory endpoint at baseline and different pre-specified time-points using patient reported outcomes evaluating general mental and physical component summary scores and subscale scores of SF-36® (acute version 2) and functional disability (HAQ-DI©). We report HRQoL results for canakinumab 150 mg, the dose that was selected for the Phase III studies.Results: Baseline assessments showed a major impact on the HRQoL during acute gouty arthritis. Compared to TA, canakinumab 150 mg showed greater improvements in SF-36® physical and mental component summary and subscale scores at 7 days post-dose.In the canakinumab 150 mg group, the most severe impairment at baseline was reported for physical functioning and bodily pain; levels of 41.5 and 36.0, respectively, which improved within 7 days to 80.0 and 72.2 (mean increases of 39.0 and 35.6) approaching levels of the general US population (84.2 and 75.2). 8 weeks post-dose patients reached levels of 86.1 and 86.6 (mean increases of 44.6 and 50.6 for physical functioning and bodily pain, respectively) and these were higher than levels seen in the general US population. This was in contrast to patients treated with TA, who showed less improvement within 7 days (mean increases of 23.3 and 21.3 for physical function and bodily pain, respectively). None of the scores reached levels of the general US population 8 weeks post-dose. Functional disability scores, as measured by the HAQ-DI© decreased in both treatment groupsConclusions: All canakinumab doses showed a rapid improvement in physical and mental well-being of gouty arthritis patients based on SF-36® scores, in particular the 150 mg dose. In contrast to the TA group, patients treated with canakinumab showed improvement within 7 days in physical function and bodily pain approaching levels of the general population. The 150 mg dose of canakinumab was selected for further development in Phase III studies.

Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

A critical analysis of three psychological research programs of doping behaviour

Objectives To consider the various specific substances-taking activities in sport an examination of three psychological models of doping behaviour utilised by researchers is presented in order to evaluate their real and potential impact, and to improve the relevance and efficiency of anti-doping campaigns. Design Adopting the notion of a "research program" (Lakatos, 1978) from the philosophy of science, a range of studies into the psychology of doping behaviour are classified and critically analysed. Method Theoretical and practical parameters of three research programs are critically evaluated (i) cognitive; (ii) drive; and (iii) situated-dynamic. Results The analysis reveals the diversity of theoretical commitments of the research programs and their practical consequences. The «cognitive program» assumes that athletes are accountable for their acts that reflect the endeavour to attain sporting and non-sporting goals. Attitudes, knowledge and rational decisions are understood to be the basis of doping behaviour. The «drive program» characterises the variety of traces and consequences on psychological and somatic states coming from athlete's experience with sport. Doping behaviour here is conceived of as a solution to reduce unconscious psychological and somatic distress. The «situated-dynamic program» considers a broader context of athletes' doping activity and its evolution during a sport career. Doping is considered as emergent and self-organized behaviour, grounded on temporally critical couplings between athletes' actions and situations and the specific dynamics of their development during the sporting life course. Conclusions These hypothetical, theoretical and methodological considerations offer a more nuanced understanding of doping behaviours, making an effective contribution to anti-doping education and research by enabling researchers and policy personnel to become more critically reflective about their explicit and implicit assumptions regarding models of explanations for doping behaviour.

Improvement of therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib by Bayesian prediction of trough levels. Personalized drug dosage

Aims: Plasma concentrations of imatinib differ largely between patients despite same dosage, owing to large inter-individual variability in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. As the drug concentration at the end of the dosage interval (Cmin) correlates with treatment response and tolerability, monitoring of Cmin is suggested for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of imatinib. Due to logistic difficulties, random sampling during the dosage interval is however often performed in clinical practice, thus rendering the respective results not informative regarding Cmin values.Objectives: (I) To extrapolate randomly measured imatinib concentrations to more informative Cmin using classical Bayesian forecasting. (II) To extend the classical Bayesian method to account for correlation between PK parameters. (III) To evaluate the predictive performance of both methods.Methods: 31 paired blood samples (random and trough levels) were obtained from 19 cancer patients under imatinib. Two Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) methods were implemented: (A) a classical method ignoring correlation between PK parameters, and (B) an extended one accounting for correlation. Both methods were applied to estimate individual PK parameters, conditional on random observations and covariate-adjusted priors from a population PK model. The PK parameter estimates were used to calculate trough levels. Relative prediction errors (PE) were analyzed to evaluate accuracy (one-sample t-test) and to compare precision between the methods (F-test to compare variances).Results: Both Bayesian MAP methods allowed non-biased predictions of individual Cmin compared to observations: (A) - 7% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 4 %, p = 0.15) and (B) - 4% mean PE (CI95% - 18 to 10 %, p = 0.69). Relative standard deviations of actual observations from predictions were 22% (A) and 30% (B), i.e. comparable to the intraindividual variability reported. Precision was not improved by taking into account correlation between PK parameters (p = 0.22).Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian extrapolation to maximum likelihood Cmin. Classical Bayesian estimation can be applied for TDM without the need to include correlation between PK parameters. Both methods could be adapted in the future to evaluate other individual pharmacokinetic measures correlated to clinical outcomes, such as area under the curve(AUC).

The nine-year sustained cost-containment impact of swiss pilot physicians-pharmacists quality circles.

BACKGROUND: Six pioneer physicians-pharmacists quality circles (PPQCs) located in the Swiss canton of Fribourg (administratively corresponding to a state in the US) were under the responsibility of 6 trained community pharmacists moderating the prescribing process of 24 general practitioners (GPs). PPQCs are based on a multifaceted collaborative process mediated by community pharmacists for improving compliance with clinical guidelines within GPs' prescribing practices. OBJECTIVE: To assess, over a 9-year period (1999-2007), the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs. METHODS: The key elements of PPQCs are a structured continuous quality improvement and education process; local networking; feedback of comparative and detailed data regarding costs, drug choice, and frequency of prescribed drugs; and structured independent literature review for interdisciplinary continuing education. The data are issued from the community pharmacy invoices to the health insurance companies. The study analyzed the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs in comparison with GPs working in similar conditions of care without particular collaboration with pharmacists, the percentage of generic prescriptions for specific cardiovascular drug classes, and the percentage of drug costs or units prescribed for specific cardiovascular drugs. RESULTS: For the 9-year period, there was a 42% decrease in the drug costs in the PPQC group as compared to the control group, representing a $225,000 (USD) savings per GP only in 2007. These results are explained by better compliance with clinical and pharmacovigilance guidelines, larger distribution of generic drugs, a more balanced attitude toward marketing strategies, and interdisciplinary continuing education on the rational use of drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The PPQC work process has yielded sustainable results, such as significant cost savings, higher penetration of generics and reflection on patient safety, and the place of "new" drugs in therapy. The PPQCs may also constitute a solid basis for implementing more comprehensive collaborative programs, such as medication reviews, adherence-enhancing interventions, or disease management approaches.

Improvement of walking speed prediction by accelerometry and altimetry, validated by satellite positioning.

Activity monitors based on accelerometry are used to predict the speed and energy cost of walking at 0% slope, but not at other inclinations. Parallel measurements of body accelerations and altitude variation were studied to determine whether walking speed prediction could be improved. Fourteen subjects walked twice along a 1.3 km circuit with substantial slope variations (-17% to +17%). The parameters recorded were body acceleration using a uni-axial accelerometer, altitude variation using differential barometry, and walking speed using satellite positioning (DGPS). Linear regressions were calculated between acceleration and walking speed, and between acceleration/altitude and walking speed. These predictive models, calculated using the data from the first circuit run, were used to predict speed during the second circuit. Finally the predicted velocity was compared with the measured one. The result was that acceleration alone failed to predict speed (mean r = 0.4). Adding altitude variation improved the prediction (mean r = 0.7). With regard to the altitude/acceleration-speed relationship, substantial inter-individual variation was found. It is concluded that accelerometry, combined with altitude measurement, can assess position variations of humans provided inter-individual variation is taken into account. It is also confirmed that DGPS can be used for outdoor walking speed measurements, opening up new perspectives in the field of biomechanics.