Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Assessment of changes in body water by bioimpedance in acutely ill surgical patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between changes in body bioelectrical impedance (BI) at 0.5, 50 and kHz and the changes in body weight, as an index of total body water changes, in acutely ill surgical patients during the rapid infusion of isotonic saline solution. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Multidisciplinary surgical ICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Twelve male patients treated for acute surgical illness (multiple trauma n = 5, major surgery n = 7). Selection criteria: stable cardiovascular parameters, normal cardiac function, signs of hypovolemia (CVP < or = 5 mmHg, urine output < 1 ml/kg x h). INTERVENTIONS: After baseline measurements, a 60 min fluid challenge test was performed with normal saline solution, 0.25 ml/kg/min [corrected]. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Body weight (platform digital scale), total body impedance (four-surface electrode technique; measurements at 0.5, 50 and 100 kHz) and urine output. Fluid retention induced a progressive decrease in BI at 0.5, 50 and 100 kHz, but the changes were significant for BI 0.5 and BI 100 only, from 40 min after the beginning of the fluid therapy onwards. There was a significant negative correlation between changes in water retention and BI 0.5, with individual correlation coefficients ranging from -0.72 to 0.95 (p < 0.01-0.0001). The slopes of the regression lines indicated that for each kg of water change, there was a mean decrease in BI of 18 ohm, but a substantial inter-individual variability was noted. CONCLUSION: BI measured at low frequency can represent a valuable index of acute changes in body water in a group of surgical patients but not in a given individual.

Candida colonization index and subsequent infection in critically ill surgical patients: 20 years later.

INTRODUCTION: For decades, clinicians dealing with immunocompromised and critically ill patients have perceived a link between Candida colonization and subsequent infection. However, the pathophysiological progression from colonization to infection was clearly established only through the formal description of the colonization index (CI) in critically ill patients. Unfortunately, the literature reflects intense confusion about the pathophysiology of invasive candidiasis and specific associated risk factors. METHODS: We review the contribution of the CI in the field of Candida infection and its development in the 20 years following its original description in 1994. The development of the CI enabled an improved understanding of the pathogenesis of invasive candidiasis and the use of targeted empirical antifungal therapy in subgroups of patients at increased risk for infection. RESULTS: The recognition of specific characteristics among underlying conditions, such as neutropenia, solid organ transplantation, and surgical and nonsurgical critical illness, has enabled the description of distinct epidemiological patterns in the development of invasive candidiasis. CONCLUSIONS: Despite its limited bedside practicality and before confirmation of potentially more accurate predictors, such as specific biomarkers, the CI remains an important way to characterize the dynamics of colonization, which increases early in patients who develop invasive candidiasis.

Alcohol consumption in late adolescence and early adulthood - where is the problem?

Risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD) is more common in late adolescence and early adulthood (approximately between the ages of 16 and 30) than in any other period in life. This is also the age when young people in Switzerland and many other European countries are legally allowed to buy and drink alcohol, but they usually do not yet have adult responsibilities. This paper reviews evidence from the international literature and provides examples of studies conducted in Switzerland demonstrating that (a) RSOD is by far most prevalent on Saturday evenings followed by Friday evenings, usually because young people go out and do not have any work or study responsibilities the next day; (b) RSOD results from drinking in private before going out ("predrinking") and accelerating the pace of drinking (i.e. increasing the number of drinks consumed per hour); (c) RSOD is often not accidental but purposeful,. to seek excitement, to have fun and to feel the effects of alcohol; (d) RSOD occurs predominantly outside the home, mostly in bars, pubs, discos or at special events and festivals; (e) RSOD often results in intended and unintended injuries and other acute consequences, which are leading risk factors for mortality and morbidity in this age group. Effective prevention strategies should include attempts to reduce opportunities to engage in heavy drinking as well as strategies to reduce its harmful consequences.

Underfunding of stroke research: a Europe-wide problem.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies in the United States and the United Kingdom have shown that stroke research is underfunded compared with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cancer research despite the high clinical and financial burden of stroke. We aimed to determine whether underfunding of stroke research is a Europe-wide problem. METHODS: Data for the financial year 2000 to 2001 were collected from 9 different European countries. Information on stroke, CHD, and cancer research funding awarded by disease-specific charities and nondisease-specific charity or government- funded organizations was obtained from annual reports, web sites, and by direct communication with organizations. RESULTS: There was marked and consistent underfunding of stroke research in all the countries studied. Stroke funding as a percentage of the total funding for stroke, CHD, and cancer was uniformly low, ranging from 2% to 11%. Funding for stroke was less than funding for cancer, usually by a factor of > or =10. In every country except Turkey, funding for stroke research was less than that for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that stroke research is grossly underfunded, compared with CHD and cancer, throughout Europe. Similar data have been obtained from the United States suggesting that relative underfunding of stroke research is likely to be a worldwide phenomenon.

Influence of early antioxidant supplements on clinical evolution and organ function in critically ill cardiac surgery, major trauma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage patients.

INTRODUCTION: Oxidative stress is involved in the development of secondary tissue damage and organ failure. Micronutrients contributing to the antioxidant (AOX) defense exhibit low plasma levels during critical illness. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of early AOX micronutrients on clinical outcome in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with conditions characterized by oxidative stress. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-center trial in patients admitted to a university hospital ICU with organ failure after complicated cardiac surgery, major trauma, or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Stratification by diagnosis was performed before randomization. The intervention was intravenous supplements for 5 days (selenium 270 microg, zinc 30 mg, vitamin C 1.1 g, and vitamin B1 100 mg) with a double-loading dose on days 1 and 2 or placebo. RESULTS: Two hundred patients were included (102 AOX and 98 placebo). While age and gender did not differ, brain injury was more severe in the AOX trauma group (P = 0.019). Organ function endpoints did not differ: incidence of acute kidney failure and sequential organ failure assessment score decrease were similar (-3.2 +/- 3.2 versus -4.2 +/- 2.3 over the course of 5 days). Plasma concentrations of selenium, zinc, and glutathione peroxidase, low on admission, increased significantly to within normal values in the AOX group. C-reactive protein decreased faster in the AOX group (P = 0.039). Infectious complications did not differ. Length of hospital stay did not differ (16.5 versus 20 days), being shorter only in surviving AOX trauma patients (-10 days; P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: The AOX intervention did not reduce early organ dysfunction but significantly reduced the inflammatory response in cardiac surgery and trauma patients, which may prove beneficial in conditions with an intense inflammation. TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov RCT Register: NCT00515736.

A tailored approach for the treatment of indirect inguinal hernia in adults--an old problem revisited.

A patent processus vaginalis peritonei (PPV) presents typically as an indirect hernia with an intact inguinal canal floor during childhood. Little is known however about PPV in adults and its best treatment. A cohort study included all consecutive patients admitted for ambulatory open hernia repair. In patients with a PPV, demographics, hernia characteristics, and outcome were prospectively assessed. Annulorrhaphy was the treatment of choice in patients with an internal inguinal ring diameter of < 30 mm. Between 1998 and 2006, 92 PPVs (two bilateral) were diagnosed in 676 open hernia repairs (incidence of 14%). Eighty nine of the 90 patients were males, the median age was 34 years (range: 17-85). A PPV was right-sided in 67% and partially obliterated in 66%. Forty-one patients had an annulorrhaphy and 51 patients had a tension-free mesh repair. The median operation time was significantly shorter in the annulorrhaphy group (38 vs. 48 min, P <.0001). In a median follow-up period of 56 months (27-128), both groups did not differ concerning recurrence (1/41 vs. 2/51), chronic pain (3/41 vs. 4/51), and hypoesthesia (5/41 vs. 9/51). There was however a clear trend to less neuropathic symptoms in favor of annulorrhaphy (0/41 vs. 5/51, P < 0.066). PPV occurs in 14% of adults undergoing hernia repair. In selected patients, annulorrhaphy takes less time and is associated with equally low recurrence but less potential for neuropathic symptoms.