66 resultados para Future value prediction
Resumo:
Altered bone micro-architecture is an important factor in accounting for fragility fractures. Until recently, it has not been possible to gain information about skeletal microstructure in a way that is clinically feasible. Bone biopsy is essentially a research tool. High-resolution peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography, while non-invasive, is available only sparsely throughout the world. The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an imaging technology adapted directly from the Dual Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry (DXA) image of the lumbar spine. Thus, it is potentially readily and widely available. In recent years, a large number of studies have demonstrated that TBS is significantly associated with direct measurements of bone micro-architecture, predicts current and future fragility fractures in primary osteoporosis, and may be a useful adjunct to BMD for fracture detection and prediction. In this review, we summarize its potential utility in secondary causes of osteoporosis. In some situations, like glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis and in diabetes mellitus, the TBS appears to out-perform DXA. It also has apparent value in numerous other disorders associated with diminished bone health, including primary hyperparathyroidism, androgen-deficiency, hormone-receptor positive breast cancer treatment, chronic kidney disease, hemochromatosis, and autoimmune disorders like rheumatoid arthritis. Further research is both needed and warranted to more clearly establish the role of TBS in these and other disorders that adversely affect bone.
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To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.
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BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS: This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.
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BACKGROUND: Endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke patients was recently shown to improve recanalization rates and clinical outcome in a well-defined study population. Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) alone is insufficiently effective to recanalize in certain patients or of little value in others. Accordingly, we aimed at identifying predictors of recanalization in patients treated with or without IVT. METHODS: In the observational Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) registry, we selected those stroke patients (1) with an arterial occlusion on computed tomography angiography (CTA) imaging, (2) who had an arterial patency assessment at 24 hours (CTA/magnetic resonance angiography/transcranial Doppler), and (3) who were treated with IVT or had no revascularization treatment. Based on 2 separate logistic regression analyses, predictors of spontaneous and post-thrombolytic recanalization were generated. RESULTS: Partial or complete recanalization was achieved in 121 of 210 (58%) thrombolyzed patients. Recanalization was associated with atrial fibrillation (odds ratio , 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.0) and absence of early ischemic changes on CT (1.1, 1.1-1.2) and inversely correlated with the presence of a significant extracranial (EC) stenosis or occlusion (.6, .3-.9). In nonthrombolyzed patients, partial or complete recanalization was significantly less frequent (37%, P < .01). The recanalization was independently associated with a history of hypercholesterolemia (2.6, 1.2-5.6) and the proximal site of the intracranial occlusion (2.5, 1.2-5.4), and inversely correlated with a decreased level of consciousness (.3, .1-.8), and EC (.3, .1-.6) and basilar artery pathology (.1, .0-.6). CONCLUSIONS: Various clinical findings, cardiovascular risk factors, and arterial pathology on acute CTA-based imaging are moderately associated with spontaneous and post-thrombolytic arterial recanalization at 24 hours. If confirmed in other studies, this information may influence patient selection toward the most appropriate revascularization strategy.
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The fourth "Melanoma Bridge Meeting" took place in Naples, December 3-6th, 2014. The four topics discussed at this meeting were: Molecular and Immunological Advances, Combination Therapies, News in Immunotherapy, and Tumor Microenvironment and Biomarkers. Until recently systemic therapy for metastatic melanoma patients was ineffective, but recent advances in tumor biology and immunology have led to the development of new targeted and immunotherapeutic agents that prolong progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). New therapies, such as mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway inhibitors as well as other signaling pathway inhibitors, are being tested in patients with metastatic melanoma either as monotherapy or in combination, and all have yielded promising results. These include inhibitors of receptor tyrosine kinases (BRAF, MEK, and VEGFR), the phosphatidylinositol 3 kinase (PI3K) pathway [PI3K, AKT, mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR)], activators of apoptotic pathway, and the cell cycle inhibitors (CDK4/6). Various locoregional interventions including radiotherapy and surgery are still valid approaches in treatment of advanced melanoma that can be integrated with novel therapies. Intrinsic, adaptive and acquired resistance occur with targeted therapy such as BRAF inhibitors, where most responses are short-lived. Given that the reactivation of the MAPK pathway through several distinct mechanisms is responsible for the majority of acquired resistance, it is logical to combine BRAF inhibitors with inhibitors of targets downstream in the MAPK pathway. For example, combination of BRAF/MEK inhibitors (e.g., dabrafenib/trametinib) have been demonstrated to improve survival compared to monotherapy. Application of novel technologies such sequencing have proven useful as a tool for identification of MAPK pathway-alternative resistance mechanism and designing other combinatorial therapies such as those between BRAF and AKT inhibitors. Improved survival rates have also been observed with immune-targeted therapy for patients with metastatic melanoma. Immune-modulating antibodies came to the forefront with anti-CTLA-4, programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and PD-1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) pathway blocking antibodies that result in durable responses in a subset of melanoma patients. Agents targeting other immune inhibitory (e.g., Tim-3) or immune stimulating (e.g., CD137) receptors and other approaches such as adoptive cell transfer demonstrate clinical benefit in patients with melanoma as well. These agents are being studied in combination with targeted therapies in attempt to produce longer-term responses than those more typically seen with targeted therapy. Other combinations with cytotoxic chemotherapy and inhibitors of angiogenesis are changing the evolving landscape of therapeutic options and are being evaluated to prevent or delay resistance and to further improve survival rates for this patient population. This meeting's specific focus was on advances in combination of targeted therapy and immunotherapy. Both combination targeted therapy approaches and different immunotherapies were discussed. Similarly to the previous meetings, the importance of biomarkers for clinical application as markers for diagnosis, prognosis and prediction of treatment response was an integral part of the meeting. The overall emphasis on biomarkers supports novel concepts toward integrating biomarkers into contemporary clinical management of patients with melanoma across the entire spectrum of disease stage. Translation of the knowledge gained from the biology of tumor microenvironment across different tumors represents a bridge to impact on prognosis and response to therapy in melanoma.
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Wastewater-based epidemiology consists in acquiring relevant information about the lifestyle and health status of the population through the analysis of wastewater samples collected at the influent of a wastewater treatment plant. Whilst being a very young discipline, it has experienced an astonishing development since its firs application in 2005. The possibility to gather community-wide information about drug use has been among the major field of application. The wide resonance of the first results sparked the interest of scientists from various disciplines. Since then, research has broadened in innumerable directions. Although being praised as a revolutionary approach, there was a need to critically assess its added value, with regard to the existing indicators used to monitor illicit drug use. The main, and explicit, objective of this research was to evaluate the added value of wastewater-based epidemiology with regards to two particular, although interconnected, dimensions of illicit drug use. The first is related to trying to understand the added value of the discipline from an epidemiological, or societal, perspective. In other terms, to evaluate if and how it completes our current vision about the extent of illicit drug use at the population level, and if it can guide the planning of future prevention measures and drug policies. The second dimension is the criminal one, with a particular focus on the networks which develop around the large demand in illicit drugs. The goal here was to assess if wastewater-based epidemiology, combined to indicators stemming from the epidemiological dimension, could provide additional clues about the structure of drug distribution networks and the size of their market. This research had also an implicit objective, which focused on initiating the path of wastewater- based epidemiology at the Ecole des Sciences Criminelles of the University of Lausanne. This consisted in gathering the necessary knowledge about the collection, preparation, and analysis of wastewater samples and, most importantly, to understand how to interpret the acquired data and produce useful information. In the first phase of this research, it was possible to determine that ammonium loads, measured directly in the wastewater stream, could be used to monitor the dynamics of the population served by the wastewater treatment plant. Furthermore, it was shown that on the long term, the population did not have a substantial impact on consumption patterns measured through wastewater analysis. Focussing on methadone, for which precise prescription data was available, it was possible to show that reliable consumption estimates could be obtained via wastewater analysis. This allowed to validate the selected sampling strategy, which was then used to monitor the consumption of heroin, through the measurement of morphine. The latter, in combination to prescription and sales data, provided estimates of heroin consumption in line with other indicators. These results, combined to epidemiological data, highlighted the good correspondence between measurements and expectations and, furthermore, suggested that the dark figure of heroin users evading harm-reduction programs, which would thus not be measured by conventional indicators, is likely limited. In the third part, which consisted in a collaborative study aiming at extensively investigating geographical differences in drug use, wastewater analysis was shown to be a useful complement to existing indicators. In particular for stigmatised drugs, such as cocaine and heroin, it allowed to decipher the complex picture derived from surveys and crime statistics. Globally, it provided relevant information to better understand the drug market, both from an epidemiological and repressive perspective. The fourth part focused on cannabis and on the potential of combining wastewater and survey data to overcome some of their respective limitations. Using a hierarchical inference model, it was possible to refine current estimates of cannabis prevalence in the metropolitan area of Lausanne. Wastewater results suggested that the actual prevalence is substantially higher compared to existing figures, thus supporting the common belief that surveys tend to underestimate cannabis use. Whilst being affected by several biases, the information collected through surveys allowed to overcome some of the limitations linked to the analysis of cannabis markers in wastewater (i.e., stability and limited excretion data). These findings highlighted the importance and utility of combining wastewater-based epidemiology to existing indicators about drug use. Similarly, the fifth part of the research was centred on assessing the potential uses of wastewater-based epidemiology from a law enforcement perspective. Through three concrete examples, it was shown that results from wastewater analysis can be used to produce highly relevant intelligence, allowing drug enforcement to assess the structure and operations of drug distribution networks and, ultimately, guide their decisions at the tactical and/or operational level. Finally, the potential to implement wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor the use of harmful, prohibited and counterfeit pharmaceuticals was illustrated through the analysis of sibutramine, and its urinary metabolite, in wastewater samples. The results of this research have highlighted that wastewater-based epidemiology is a useful and powerful approach with numerous scopes. Faced with the complexity of measuring a hidden phenomenon like illicit drug use, it is a major addition to the panoply of existing indicators. -- L'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées (ou, selon sa définition anglaise, « wastewater-based epidemiology ») consiste en l'acquisition d'informations portant sur le mode de vie et l'état de santé d'une population via l'analyse d'échantillons d'eaux usées récoltés à l'entrée des stations d'épuration. Bien qu'il s'agisse d'une discipline récente, elle a vécu des développements importants depuis sa première mise en oeuvre en 2005, notamment dans le domaine de l'analyse des résidus de stupéfiants. Suite aux retombées médiatiques des premiers résultats de ces analyses de métabolites dans les eaux usées, de nombreux scientifiques provenant de différentes disciplines ont rejoint les rangs de cette nouvelle discipline en développant plusieurs axes de recherche distincts. Bien que reconnu pour son coté objectif et révolutionnaire, il était nécessaire d'évaluer sa valeur ajoutée en regard des indicateurs couramment utilisés pour mesurer la consommation de stupéfiants. En se focalisant sur deux dimensions spécifiques de la consommation de stupéfiants, l'objectif principal de cette recherche était focalisé sur l'évaluation de la valeur ajoutée de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. La première dimension abordée était celle épidémiologique ou sociétale. En d'autres termes, il s'agissait de comprendre si et comment l'analyse des eaux usées permettait de compléter la vision actuelle sur la problématique, ainsi que déterminer son utilité dans la planification des mesures préventives et des politiques en matière de stupéfiants actuelles et futures. La seconde dimension abordée était celle criminelle, en particulier, l'étude des réseaux qui se développent autour du trafic de produits stupéfiants. L'objectif était de déterminer si cette nouvelle approche combinée aux indicateurs conventionnels, fournissait de nouveaux indices quant à la structure et l'organisation des réseaux de distribution ainsi que sur les dimensions du marché. Cette recherche avait aussi un objectif implicite, développer et d'évaluer la mise en place de l'épidémiologie basée sur l'analyse des eaux usées. En particulier, il s'agissait d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires quant à la manière de collecter, traiter et analyser des échantillons d'eaux usées, mais surtout, de comprendre comment interpréter les données afin d'en extraire les informations les plus pertinentes. Dans la première phase de cette recherche, il y pu être mis en évidence que les charges en ammonium, mesurées directement dans les eaux usées permettait de suivre la dynamique des mouvements de la population contributrice aux eaux usées de la station d'épuration de la zone étudiée. De plus, il a pu être démontré que, sur le long terme, les mouvements de la population n'avaient pas d'influence substantielle sur le pattern de consommation mesuré dans les eaux usées. En se focalisant sur la méthadone, une substance pour laquelle des données précises sur le nombre de prescriptions étaient disponibles, il a pu être démontré que des estimations exactes sur la consommation pouvaient être tirées de l'analyse des eaux usées. Ceci a permis de valider la stratégie d'échantillonnage adoptée, qui, par le bais de la morphine, a ensuite été utilisée pour suivre la consommation d'héroïne. Combinée aux données de vente et de prescription, l'analyse de la morphine a permis d'obtenir des estimations sur la consommation d'héroïne en accord avec des indicateurs conventionnels. Ces résultats, combinés aux données épidémiologiques ont permis de montrer une bonne adéquation entre les projections des deux approches et ainsi démontrer que le chiffre noir des consommateurs qui échappent aux mesures de réduction de risque, et qui ne seraient donc pas mesurés par ces indicateurs, est vraisemblablement limité. La troisième partie du travail a été réalisée dans le cadre d'une étude collaborative qui avait pour but d'investiguer la valeur ajoutée de l'analyse des eaux usées à mettre en évidence des différences géographiques dans la consommation de stupéfiants. En particulier pour des substances stigmatisées, telles la cocaïne et l'héroïne, l'approche a permis d'objectiver et de préciser la vision obtenue avec les indicateurs traditionnels du type sondages ou les statistiques policières. Globalement, l'analyse des eaux usées s'est montrée être un outil très utile pour mieux comprendre le marché des stupéfiants, à la fois sous l'angle épidémiologique et répressif. La quatrième partie du travail était focalisée sur la problématique du cannabis ainsi que sur le potentiel de combiner l'analyse des eaux usées aux données de sondage afin de surmonter, en partie, leurs limitations. En utilisant un modèle d'inférence hiérarchique, il a été possible d'affiner les actuelles estimations sur la prévalence de l'utilisation de cannabis dans la zone métropolitaine de la ville de Lausanne. Les résultats ont démontré que celle-ci est plus haute que ce que l'on s'attendait, confirmant ainsi l'hypothèse que les sondages ont tendance à sous-estimer la consommation de cannabis. Bien que biaisés, les données récoltées par les sondages ont permis de surmonter certaines des limitations liées à l'analyse des marqueurs du cannabis dans les eaux usées (i.e., stabilité et manque de données sur l'excrétion). Ces résultats mettent en évidence l'importance et l'utilité de combiner les résultats de l'analyse des eaux usées aux indicateurs existants. De la même façon, la cinquième partie du travail était centrée sur l'apport de l'analyse des eaux usées du point de vue de la police. Au travers de trois exemples, l'utilisation de l'indicateur pour produire du renseignement concernant la structure et les activités des réseaux de distribution de stupéfiants, ainsi que pour guider les choix stratégiques et opérationnels de la police, a été mise en évidence. Dans la dernière partie, la possibilité d'utiliser cette approche pour suivre la consommation de produits pharmaceutiques dangereux, interdits ou contrefaits, a été démontrée par l'analyse dans les eaux usées de la sibutramine et ses métabolites. Les résultats de cette recherche ont mis en évidence que l'épidémiologie par l'analyse des eaux usées est une approche pertinente et puissante, ayant de nombreux domaines d'application. Face à la complexité de mesurer un phénomène caché comme la consommation de stupéfiants, la valeur ajoutée de cette approche a ainsi pu être démontrée.