64 resultados para First order autoregressive model AR (1)


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The spatial resolution visualized with hydrological models and the conceptualized images of subsurface hydrological processes often exceed resolution of the data collected with classical instrumentation at the field scale. In recent years it was possible to increasingly diminish the inherent gap to information from point like field data through the application of hydrogeophysical methods at field-scale. With regards to all common geophysical exploration techniques, electric and electromagnetic methods have arguably to greatest sensitivity to hydrologically relevant parameters. Of particular interest in this context are induced polarisation (IP) measurements, which essentially constrain the capacity of a probed subsurface region to store an electrical charge. In the absence of metallic conductors the IP- response is largely driven by current conduction along the grain surfaces. This offers the perspective to link such measurements to the characteristics of the solid-fluid-interface and thus, at least in unconsolidated sediments, should allow for first-order estimates of the permeability structure.¦While the IP-effect is well explored through laboratory experiments and in part verified through field data for clay-rich environments, the applicability of IP-based characterizations to clay-poor aquifers is not clear. For example, polarization mechanisms like membrane polarization are not applicable in the rather wide pore-systems of clay free sands, and the direct transposition of Schwarz' theory relating polarization of spheres to the relaxation mechanism of polarized cells to complex natural sediments yields ambiguous results.¦In order to improve our understanding of the structural origins of IP-signals in such environments as well as their correlation with pertinent hydrological parameters, various laboratory measurements have been conducted. We consider saturated quartz samples with a grain size spectrum varying from fine sand to fine gravel, that is grain diameters between 0,09 and 5,6 mm, as well as corresponding pertinent mixtures which can be regarded as proxies for widespread alluvial deposits. The pore space characteristics are altered by changing (i) the grain size spectra, (ii) the degree of compaction, and (iii) the level of sorting. We then examined how these changes affect the SIP response, the hydraulic conductivity, and the specific surface area of the considered samples, while keeping any electrochemical variability during the measurements as small as possible. The results do not follow simple assumptions on relationships to single parameters such as grain size. It was found that the complexity of natural occurring media is not yet sufficiently represented when modelling IP. At the same time simple correlation to permeability was found to be strong and consistent. Hence, adaptations with the aim of better representing the geo-structure of natural porous media were applied to the simplified model space used in Schwarz' IP-effect-theory. The resulting semi- empiric relationship was found to more accurately predict the IP-effect and its relation to the parameters grain size and permeability. If combined with recent findings about the effect of pore fluid electrochemistry together with advanced complex resistivity tomography, these results will allow us to picture diverse aspects of the subsurface with relative certainty. Within the framework of single measurement campaigns, hydrologiste can than collect data with information about the geo-structure and geo-chemistry of the subsurface. However, additional research efforts will be necessary to further improve the understanding of the physical origins of IP-effect and minimize the potential for false interpretations.¦-¦Dans l'étude des processus et caractéristiques hydrologiques des subsurfaces, la résolution spatiale donnée par les modèles hydrologiques dépasse souvent la résolution des données du terrain récoltées avec des méthodes classiques d'hydrologie. Récemment il est possible de réduire de plus en plus cet divergence spatiale entre modèles numériques et données du terrain par l'utilisation de méthodes géophysiques, notamment celles géoélectriques. Parmi les méthodes électriques, la polarisation provoquée (PP) permet de représenter la capacité des roches poreuses et des sols à stocker une charge électrique. En l'absence des métaux dans le sous-sol, cet effet est largement influencé par des caractéristiques de surface des matériaux. En conséquence les mesures PP offrent une information des interfaces entre solides et fluides dans les matériaux poreux que nous pouvons lier à la perméabilité également dirigée par ces mêmes paramètres. L'effet de la polarisation provoquée à été étudié dans différentes études de laboratoire, ainsi que sur le terrain. A cause d'une faible capacité de polarisation des matériaux sableux, comparé aux argiles, leur caractérisation par l'effet-PP reste difficile a interpréter d'une manière cohérente pour les environnements hétérogènes.¦Pour améliorer les connaissances sur l'importance de la structure du sous-sol sableux envers l'effet PP et des paramètres hydrologiques, nous avons fait des mesures de laboratoire variées. En détail, nous avons considéré des échantillons sableux de quartz avec des distributions de taille de grain entre sables fins et graviers fins, en diamètre cela fait entre 0,09 et 5,6 mm. Les caractéristiques de l'espace poreux sont changées en modifiant (i) la distribution de taille des grains, (ii) le degré de compaction, et (iii) le niveau d'hétérogénéité dans la distribution de taille de grains. En suite nous étudions comment ces changements influencent l'effet-PP, la perméabilité et la surface spécifique des échantillons. Les paramètres électrochimiques sont gardés à un minimum pendant les mesures. Les résultats ne montrent pas de relation simple entre les paramètres pétro-physiques comme par exemples la taille des grains. La complexité des media naturels n'est pas encore suffisamment représenté par les modèles des processus PP. Néanmoins, la simple corrélation entre effet PP et perméabilité est fort et consistant. En conséquence la théorie de Schwarz sur l'effet-PP a été adapté de manière semi-empirique pour mieux pouvoir estimer la relation entre les résultats de l'effet-PP et les paramètres taille de graines et perméabilité. Nos résultats concernant l'influence de la texture des matériaux et celles de l'effet de l'électrochimie des fluides dans les pores, permettront de visualiser des divers aspects du sous-sol. Avec des telles mesures géo-électriques, les hydrologues peuvent collectionner des données contenant des informations sur la structure et la chimie des fluides des sous-sols. Néanmoins, plus de recherches sur les origines physiques de l'effet-PP sont nécessaires afin de minimiser le risque potentiel d'une mauvaise interprétation des données.

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OBJECTIVE: Interleukin-1 (IL-1) mediates ischemia-reperfusion injury and graft inflammation after heart transplantation. IL-1 affects target cells through two distinct types of transmembrane receptors, type-1 receptor (IL-1R1), which transduces the signal, and the non-signaling type-2 receptor (IL-1R2), which acts as a ligand sink that subtracts IL-1beta from IL-1R1. We analyzed the efficacy of adenovirus (Ad)-mediated gene transfer of a soluble IL-1R2-Ig fusion protein in delaying cardiac allograft rejection and the mechanisms underlying the protective effect. METHODS: IL-1 inhibition by IL-1R2-Ig was tested using an in vitro functional assay whereby endothelial cells preincubated with AdIL-1R2-Ig or control virus were stimulated with recombinant IL-1beta or tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), and urokinase-type plasminogen activator (u-PA) induction was measured by zymography. AdIL-1R2-Ig was delivered to F344 rat donor hearts ex vivo, which were placed in the abdominal position in LEW hosts. Intragraft inflammatory cell infiltrates and proinflammatory cytokine expression were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), respectively. RESULTS: IL-1R2-Ig specifically inhibited IL-1beta-induced u-PA responses in vitro. IL-1R2-Ig gene transfer reduced intragraft monocytes/macrophages and CD4(+) cell infiltrates (p<0.05), TNF-alpha and transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) expression (p<0.05), and prolonged graft survival (15.6+/-5.7 vs 10.3+/-2.5 days with control vector and 10.1+/-2.1 days with buffer alone; p<0.01). AdIL-1R2-Ig combined with a subtherapeutic regimen of cyclosporin A (CsA) was superior to CsA alone (19.4+/-3.0 vs 15.9+/-1.8 days; p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Soluble IL-1 type-2 receptor gene transfer attenuates cardiac allograft rejection in a rat model. IL-1 inhibition may be useful as an adjuvant therapy in heart transplantation.

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This paper quantifies the yields of suspended solids (SS) from a headwater catchment managed as improved temperate grassland, providing the first direct, catchment-scale evidence of the rates of erosion from this land-use in the UK and assessing the threat posed to aquatic ecosystems. High-resolution monitoring of catchment hydrology and the concentrations of SS and volatile organic matter (VOM) were carried out in the first-order channel of the Den Brook headwater catchment in Devon (UK) during the 2006-2007 hydrological season. The widely used 'rating curve' (discharge-concentration) approach was employed to estimate yields of SS, but as demonstrated by previous researchers, this study showed that discharge is a poor predictor of SS concentrations and therefore any yields estimated from this technique are likely to be highly uncertain. Nevertheless, for the purpose of providing estimates of yields that are comparable to previous studies on other land uses/sources, this technique was adopted albeit in an uncertainty-based framework. The findings suggest that contrary to the common perception, grasslands can be erosive landscapes with SS yields from this catchment estimated to be between 0.54 and 1.21 t ha(-1) y(-1). In terms of on-site erosion problems, this rate of erosion does not significantly exceed the commonly used 'tolerable' threshold in the UK ( approximately 1 t ha(-1) y(-1)). In terms of off-site erosion problems, it is argued here that the conventional expression of SS yield as a bulk annual figure has little relevance to the water quality and ecological status of surface waters and therefore an alternative technique (the concentration-frequency curve) is developed within this paper for the specific purpose of assessing the ecological threat posed by the delivery of SS into surface waters. This technique illustrates that concentrations of SS recorded at the catchment outlet frequently exceed the water quality guidelines, such as those of the EU Freshwater Fisheries Directive (78/659/EC), and pose a serious threat to aquatic organisms. It is suggested that failure to recognise improved temperate grasslands as a potential source of particulate material could result in the non-compliance of surface waters to water quality guidelines, deterioration of ecological status and failure of water quality remediation measures.

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The three essays constituting this thesis focus on financing and cash management policy. The first essay aims to shed light on why firms issue debt so conservatively. In particular, it examines the effects of shareholder and creditor protection on capital structure choices. It starts by building a contingent claims model where financing policy results from a trade-off between tax benefits, contracting costs and agency costs. In this setup, controlling shareholders can divert part of the firms' cash ows as private benefits at the expense of minority share- holders. In addition, shareholders as a class can behave strategically at the time of default leading to deviations from the absolute priority rule. The analysis demonstrates that investor protection is a first order determinant of firms' financing choices and that conflicts of interests between firm claimholders may help explain the level and cross-sectional variation of observed leverage ratios. The second essay focuses on the practical relevance of agency conflicts. De- spite the theoretical development of the literature on agency conflicts and firm policy choices, the magnitude of manager-shareholder conflicts is still an open question. This essay proposes a methodology for quantifying these agency conflicts. To do so, it examines the impact of managerial entrenchment on corporate financing decisions. It builds a dynamic contingent claims model in which managers do not act in the best interest of shareholders, but rather pursue private benefits at the expense of shareholders. Managers have discretion over financing and dividend policies. However, shareholders can remove the manager at a cost. The analysis demonstrates that entrenched managers restructure less frequently and issue less debt than optimal for shareholders. I take the model to the data and use observed financing choices to provide firm-specific estimates of the degree of managerial entrenchment. Using structural econometrics, I find costs of control challenges of 2-7% on average (.8-5% at median). The estimates of the agency costs vary with variables that one expects to determine managerial incentives. In addition, these costs are sufficient to resolve the low- and zero-leverage puzzles and explain the time series of observed leverage ratios. Finally, the analysis shows that governance mechanisms significantly affect the value of control and firms' financing decisions. The third essay is concerned with the documented time trend in corporate cash holdings by Bates, Kahle and Stulz (BKS,2003). BKS find that firms' cash holdings double from 10% to 20% over the 1980 to 2005 period. This essay provides an explanation of this phenomenon by examining the effects of product market competition on firms' cash holdings in the presence of financial constraints. It develops a real options model in which cash holdings may be used to cover unexpected operating losses and avoid inefficient closure. The model generates new predictions relating cash holdings to firm and industry characteristics such as the intensity of competition, cash flow volatility, or financing constraints. The empirical examination of the model shows strong support of model's predictions. In addition, it shows that the time trend in cash holdings documented by BKS can be at least partly attributed to a competition effect.