Worlds of working poverty : Cross-national variation in the mechanisms that lead to poverty among workers

The objective of this paper is to distinguish between different types of working poverty, on the basis of the mechanisms that produce it. Whereas the poverty literature identifies a myriad of risk factors and of categories of disadvantaged workers, we focus on three immediate causes of working poverty, namely low wage rate, weak labour force attachment, and high needs, the latter mainly due to the presence of children (and sometimes to the increase in needs caused by a divorce). These three mechanisms are the channels through which macroeconomic, demographic and policy factors have a direct bearing on working households. The main assumption tested here is that welfare regimes strongly influence the relative weight of these three mechanisms in producing working poverty, and, hence, the composition of the working-poor population. Our figures confirm this hypothesis and show that low-wage employment is a key factor, but, by far, not the only one and that family policies broadly understood play a decisive role, as well as patterns of labour market participation and integration.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer.

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Population specific and up to date cardiovascular risk charts can be efficiently obtained with record linkage of routine and observational data.

BACKGROUND: Only few countries have cohorts enabling specific and up-to-date cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. Individual risk assessment based on study samples that differ too much from the target population could jeopardize the benefit of risk charts in general practice. Our aim was to provide up-to-date and valid CVD risk estimation for a Swiss population using a novel record linkage approach. METHODS: Anonymous record linkage was used to follow-up (for mortality, until 2008) 9,853 men and women aged 25-74 years who participated in the Swiss MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CVD) study of 1983-92. The linkage success was 97.8%, loss to follow-up 1990-2000 was 4.7%. Based on the ESC SCORE methodology (Weibull regression), we used age, sex, blood pressure, smoking, and cholesterol to generate three models. We compared the 1) original SCORE model with a 2) recalibrated and a 3) new model using the Brier score (BS) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Based on the cross-validated BS, the new model (BS = 14107×10(-6)) was somewhat more appropriate for risk estimation than the original (BS = 14190×10(-6)) and the recalibrated (BS = 14172×10(-6)) model. Particularly at younger age, derived absolute risks were consistently lower than those from the original and the recalibrated model which was mainly due to a smaller impact of total cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Using record linkage of observational and routine data is an efficient procedure to obtain valid and up-to-date CVD risk estimates for a specific population.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Complications of systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis: risk factors and management recommendations.

Systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA) is an inflammatory condition characterized by fever, lymphadenopathy, arthritis, rash and serositis. Systemic inflammation has been associated with dysregulation of the innate immune system, suggesting that SJIA is an autoinflammatory disorder. IL-1 and IL-6 play a major role in the pathogenesis of SJIA, and treatment with IL-1 and IL-6 inhibitors has shown to be highly effective. However, complications of SJIA, including macrophage activation syndrome, limitations in functional outcome by arthritis and long-term damage from chronic inflammation, continue to be a major issue in SJIA patients' care. Translational research leading to a profound understanding of the cytokine crosstalk in SJIA and the identification of risk factors for SJIA complications will help to improve long-term outcome.

The Atherosclerosis Burden Score (ABS): a Convenient Ultrasound-Based Score of Peripheral Atherosclerosis for Coronary Artery Disease Prediction.

Ultrasonographic detection of subclinical atherosclerosis improves cardiovascular risk stratification, but uncertainty persists about the most discriminative method to apply. In this study, we found that the "atherosclerosis burden score (ABS)", a novel straightforward ultrasonographic score that sums the number of carotid and femoral arterial bifurcations with plaques, significantly outperformed common carotid intima-media thickness, carotid mean/maximal thickness, and carotid/femoral plaque scores for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area under the curve (AUC) = 0.79; P = 0.027 to <0.001 with the other five US endpoints) in 203 patients undergoing coronary angiography. ABS was also more correlated with CAD extension (R = 0.55; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in a second group of 1128 patients without cardiovascular disease, ABS was weakly correlated with the European Society of Cardiology chart risk categories (R (2) = 0.21), indicating that ABS provided information beyond usual cardiovascular risk factor-based risk stratification. Pending prospective studies on hard cardiovascular endpoints, ABS appears as a promising tool in primary prevention.

Being Small for Gestational Age: Does it Matter for the Neurodevelopment of Premature Infants? A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether being small for gestational age (SGA) increases the risk of adverse neurodevelopmental outcome in premature infants remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: to study the impact of SGA (birthweight < percentile 10) on cognition, behavior, neurodevelopmental impairment and use of therapy at 5 years old. METHODS: This population-based prospective cohort included infants born before 32 weeks of gestation. Cognition was evaluated with the K-ABC, and behavior with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Primary outcomes were cognitive and behavioral scores, as well as neurodevelopmental impairment (cognitive score < 2SD, hearing loss, blindness, or cerebral palsy). The need of therapy, an indirect indicator of neurodevelopmental impairment, was a secondary outcome. Linear and logistic regression models were used to analyze the association of SGA with neurodevelopment. RESULTS: 342/515 (76%) premature infants were assessed. SGA was significantly associated with hyperactivity scores of the SDQ (coefficient 0.81, p < 0.04), but not with cognitive scores, neurodevelopmental impairment or the need of therapy. Gestational age, socio-economic status, and major brain lesions were associated with cognitive outcome in the univariate and multivariate model, whereas asphyxia, sepsis and bronchopulmonary dysplasia were associated in the univariate model only. Severe impairment was associated with fetal tobacco exposition, asphyxia, gestational age and major brain lesions. Different neonatal factors were associated with the use of single or multiple therapies: children with one therapy were more likely to have suffered birth asphyxia or necrotizing enterocolitis, whereas the need for several therapies was predicted by major brain lesions. DISCUSSION: In this large cohort of premature infants, assessed at 5 years old with a complete panel of tests, SGA was associated with hyperactive behavior, but not with cognition, neurodevelopmental impairment or use of therapy. Birthweight <10th percentile alone does not appear to be an independent risk factor of neurodevelopmental adverse outcome in preterm children.

Innate Immune Sensing of Fusarium culmorum by Mouse Dendritic Cells.

Chronic inhalation of grain dust is associated with asthma and chronic bronchitis in grain worker populations. Exposure to fungal particles was postulated to be an important etiologic agent of these pathologies. Fusarium species frequently colonize grain and straw and produce a wide array of mycotoxins that impact human health, necessitating an evaluation of risk exposure by inhalation of Fusarium and its consequences on immune responses. Data showed that Fusarium culmorum is a frequent constituent of aerosols sampled during wheat harvesting in the Vaud region of Switzerland. The aim of this study was to examine cytokine/chemokine responses and innate immune sensing of F. culmorum in bone-marrow-derived dendritic cells and macrophages. Overall, dendritic cells and macrophages responded to F. culmorum spores but not to its secreted components (i.e., mycotoxins) by releasing large amounts of macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1α, MIP-1β, MIP-2, monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1, RANTES, and interleukin (IL)-12p40, intermediate amounts of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), IL-6, IL-12p70, IL-33, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), and interferon gamma-induced protein (IP-10), but no detectable amounts of IL-4 and IL-10, a pattern of mediators compatible with generation of Th1 or Th17 antifungal protective immune responses rather than with Th2-dependent allergic responses. The sensing of F. culmorum spores by dendritic cells required dectin-1, the main pattern recognition receptor involved in β-glucans detection, but likely not MyD88 and TRIF-dependent Toll-like receptors. Taken together, our results indicate that F. culmorum stimulates potently innate immune cells in a dectin-1-dependent manner, suggesting that inhalation of F. culmorum from grain dust may promote immune-related airway diseases in exposed worker populations.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE: The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN: We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS: Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS: Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.