Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

The kinetic parameters and energy cost of the Hsp70 chaperone as a polypeptide unfoldase.

Hsp70-Hsp40-NEF and possibly Hsp100 are the only known molecular chaperones that can use the energy of ATP to convert stably pre-aggregated polypeptides into natively refolded proteins. However, the kinetic parameters and ATP costs have remained elusive because refolding reactions have only been successful with a molar excess of chaperones over their polypeptide substrates. Here we describe a stable, misfolded luciferase species that can be efficiently renatured by substoichiometric amounts of bacterial Hsp70-Hsp40-NEF. The reactivation rates increased with substrate concentration and followed saturation kinetics, thus allowing the determination of apparent V(max)' and K(m)' values for a chaperone-mediated renaturation reaction for the first time. Under the in vitro conditions used, one Hsp70 molecule consumed five ATPs to effectively unfold a single misfolded protein into an intermediate that, upon chaperone dissociation, spontaneously refolded to the native state, a process with an ATP cost a thousand times lower than expected for protein degradation and resynthesis.

Superior diagnostic performance of perfusion-cardiovascular magnetic resonance versus SPECT to detect coronary artery disease: The secondary endpoints of the multicenter multivendor MR-IMPACT II (Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Myocardial Perfusion Assessment in Coronary Artery Disease Trial).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Perfusion-cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted as an alternative to SPECT to assess myocardial ischemia non-invasively. However its performance vs gated-SPECT and in sub-populations is not fully established. The goal was to compare in a multicenter setting the diagnostic performance of perfusion-CMR and gated-SPECT for the detection of CAD in various populations using conventional x-ray coronary angiography (CXA) as the standard of reference. METHODS: In 33 centers (in US and Europe) 533 patients, eligible for CXA or SPECT, were enrolled in this multivendor trial. SPECT and CXA were performed within 4 weeks before or after CMR in all patients. Prevalence of CAD in the sample was 49% and 515 patients received MR contrast medium. Drop-out rates for CMR and SPECT were 5.6% and 3.7%, respectively (ns). The study was powered for the primary endpoint of non-inferiority of CMR vs SPECT for both, sensitivity and specificity for the detection of CAD (using a single-threshold reading), the results for the primary endpoint were reported elsewhere. In this article secondary endpoints are presented, i.e. the diagnostic performance of CMR versus SPECT in subpopulations such as multi-vessel disease (MVD), in men, in women, and in patients without prior myocardial infarction (MI). For diagnostic performance assessment the area under the receiver-operator-characteristics-curve (AUC) was calculated. Readers were blinded versus clinical data, CXA, and imaging results. RESULTS: The diagnostic performance (= area under ROC = AUC) of CMR was superior to SPECT (p = 0.0004, n = 425) and to gated-SPECT (p = 0.018, n = 253). CMR performed better than SPECT in MVD (p = 0.003 vs all SPECT, p = 0.04 vs gated-SPECT), in men (p = 0.004, n = 313) and in women (p = 0.03, n = 112) as well as in the non-infarct patients (p = 0.005, n = 186 in 1-3 vessel disease and p = 0.015, n = 140 in MVD). CONCLUSION: In this large multicenter, multivendor study the diagnostic performance of perfusion-CMR to detect CAD was superior to perfusion SPECT in the entire population and in sub-groups. Perfusion-CMR can be recommended as an alternative for SPECT imaging. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT00977093.

Performance of noninvasive ventilation algorithms on ICU ventilators during pressure support: a clinical study.

To evaluate the impact of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) algorithms available on intensive care unit ventilators on the incidence of patient-ventilator asynchrony in patients receiving NIV for acute respiratory failure. Prospective multicenter randomized cross-over study. Intensive care units in three university hospitals. Patients consecutively admitted to the ICU and treated by NIV with an ICU ventilator were included. Airway pressure, flow and surface diaphragmatic electromyography were recorded continuously during two 30-min periods, with the NIV (NIV+) or without the NIV algorithm (NIV0). Asynchrony events, the asynchrony index (AI) and a specific asynchrony index influenced by leaks (AIleaks) were determined from tracing analysis. Sixty-five patients were included. With and without the NIV algorithm, respectively, auto-triggering was present in 14 (22%) and 10 (15%) patients, ineffective breaths in 15 (23%) and 5 (8%) (p = 0.004), late cycling in 11 (17%) and 5 (8%) (p = 0.003), premature cycling in 22 (34%) and 21 (32%), and double triggering in 3 (5%) and 6 (9%). The mean number of asynchronies influenced by leaks was significantly reduced by the NIV algorithm (p < 0.05). A significant correlation was found between the magnitude of leaks and AIleaks when the NIV algorithm was not activated (p = 0.03). The global AI remained unchanged, mainly because on some ventilators with the NIV algorithm premature cycling occurs. In acute respiratory failure, NIV algorithms provided by ICU ventilators can reduce the incidence of asynchronies because of leaks, thus confirming bench test results, but some of these algorithms can generate premature cycling.

Coordination pattern adaptability: energy cost of degenerate behaviors.

This study investigated behavioral adaptability, which could be defined as a blend between stability and flexibility of the limbs movement and their inter-limb coordination, when individuals received informational constraints. Seven expert breaststroke swimmers performed three 200-m in breaststroke at constant submaximal intensity. Each trial was performed randomly in a different coordination pattern: 'freely-chosen', 'maximal glide' and 'minimal glide'. Two underwater and four aerial cameras enabled 3D movement analysis in order to assess elbow and knee angles, elbow-knee pair coordination, intra-cyclic velocity variations of the center of mass, stroke rate and stroke length and inter-limb coordination. The energy cost of locomotion was calculated from gas exchanges and blood lactate concentration. The results showed significantly higher glide, intra-cyclic velocity variations and energy cost under 'maximal glide' compared to 'freely-chosen' instructional conditions, as well as higher reorganization of limb movement and inter-limb coordination (p<0.05). In the 'minimal glide' condition, the swimmers did not show significantly shorter glide and lower energy cost, but they exhibited significantly lower deceleration of the center of mass, as well as modified limb movement and inter-limb coordination (p<0.05). These results highlight that a variety of structural adaptations can functionally satisfy the task-goal.

Performance of parental history for the targeted screening of hypertension in children.

OBJECTIVES: Several guidelines recommend universal screening for hypertension in childhood and adolescence. Targeted screening to children with parental history of hypertension could be a more efficient strategy than universal screening. Therefore, we assessed the association between parental history of hypertension and hypertension in children, and estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative, and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension for hypertension in children. METHODS: The present study was a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10-14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over three separate visits. RESULTS: In children, the prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. Some 8.5% of mothers and 12.9% of fathers reported to be hypertensive. Maternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.2-3.3) and paternal history of hypertension (odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.4-3.6) were independent risk factors for hypertension in children. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children was low (from 4% for both parents' positive history up to 41% for at least one parent's positive history). Positive predictive values were also low (between 4 and 5%). CONCLUSION: Children with hypertensive parents were at higher risk of hypertension. Nevertheless, parental history of hypertension helped only marginally to identify hypertension in offspring. Targeting screening only toward children with a parental history of hypertension may not be a substantially better strategy to identify hypertension in children compared with universal screening.

3B.01: Performance of targeted screening for the identification of hypertension in children

OBJECTIVE: As universal screening of hypertension performs poorly in childhood, targeted screening to children at higher risk of hypertension has been proposed. Our goal was to assess the performance of combined parental history of hypertension and overweight/obesity to identify children with hypertension. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of overweight/obesity and parental history of hypertension for the identification of hypertension in children. DESIGN AND METHOD: We analyzed data from a school-based cross-sectional study including 5207 children aged 10 to 14 years from all public 6th grade classes in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Blood pressure was measured with a clinically validated oscillometric automated device over up to three visits separated by one week. Children had hypertension if they had sustained elevated blood pressure over the three visits. Parents were interviewed about their history of hypertension. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension was 2.2%. 14% of children were overweight or obese and 20% had a positive history of hypertension in either or both parents. 30% of children had either or both conditions. After accounting for several potential confounding factors, parental history of hypertension (odds ratio (OR): 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-4.0), overweight excluding obesity (OR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.5-4.2) and obesity (OR: 10.1; 95% CI: 6.0-17.0) were associated with hypertension in children. Considered in isolation, the sensitivity and positive predictive values of parental history of hypertension (respectively 41% and 5%) or overweight/obesity (respectively 43% and 7%) were relatively low. Nevertheless, considered together, the sensitivity of targeted screening in children with either overweight/obesity or paternal history of hypertension was higher (65%) but the positive predictive value remained low (5%). The negative predictive value was systematically high. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting screening of hypertension to children with either overweight/obesity or with hypertensive parents would substantially limit the proportion of children to screen (30%) and allow the identification of a relatively large proportion (65%) of hypertensive cases. That could be a valuable alternative to universal screening.

The Effect of Two Speed Endurance Training Regimes on Performance of Soccer Players.

In order to better understand the specificity of training adaptations, we compared the effects of two different anaerobic training regimes on various types of soccer-related exercise performances. During the last 3 weeks of the competitive season, thirteen young male professional soccer players (age 18.5±1 yr, height 179.5±6.5 cm, body mass 74.3±6.5 kg) reduced the training volume by ~20% and replaced their habitual fitness conditioning work with either speed endurance production (SEP; n = 6) or speed endurance maintenance (SEM; n = 7) training, three times per wk. SEP training consisted of 6-8 reps of 20-s all-out running bouts followed by 2 min of passive recovery, whereas SEM training was characterized by 6-8 x 20-s all-out efforts interspersed with 40 s of passive recovery. SEP training reduced (p<0.01) the total time in a repeated sprint ability test (RSAt) by 2.5%. SEM training improved the 200-m sprint performance (from 26.59±0.70 to 26.02±0.62 s, p<0.01) and had a likely beneficial impact on the percentage decrement score of the RSA test (from 4.07±1.28 to 3.55±1.01%) but induced a very likely impairment in RSAt (from 83.81±2.37 to 84.65±2.27 s). The distance covered in the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery test level 2 was 10.1% (p<0.001) and 3.8% (p<0.05) higher after SEP and SEM training, respectively, with possibly greater improvements following SEP compared to SEM. No differences were observed in the 20- and 40-m sprint performances. In conclusion, these two training strategies target different determinants of soccer-related physical performance. SEP improved repeated sprint and high-intensity intermittent exercise performance, whereas SEM increased muscles' ability to maximize fatigue tolerance and maintain speed development during both repeated all-out and continuous short-duration maximal exercises. These results provide new insight into the precise nature of a stimulus necessary to improve specific types of athletic performance in trained young soccer players.

Attracting cavities for docking. Replacing the rough energy landscape of the protein by a smooth attracting landscape.

Molecular docking is a computational approach for predicting the most probable position of ligands in the binding sites of macromolecules and constitutes the cornerstone of structure-based computer-aided drug design. Here, we present a new algorithm called Attracting Cavities that allows molecular docking to be performed by simple energy minimizations only. The approach consists in transiently replacing the rough potential energy hypersurface of the protein by a smooth attracting potential driving the ligands into protein cavities. The actual protein energy landscape is reintroduced in a second step to refine the ligand position. The scoring function of Attracting Cavities is based on the CHARMM force field and the FACTS solvation model. The approach was tested on the 85 experimental ligand-protein structures included in the Astex diverse set and achieved a success rate of 80% in reproducing the experimental binding mode starting from a completely randomized ligand conformer. The algorithm thus compares favorably with current state-of-the-art docking programs. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Computational Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.