Do standard burn mortality formulae work on a population of severely burned children and adults?

Accurate prediction of mortality following burns is useful as an audit tool, and for providing treatment plan and resource allocation criteria. Common burn formulae (Ryan Score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), classic and revised Baux) have not been compared with the standard Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII) or re-validated in a severely (≥20% total burn surface area) burned population. Furthermore, the revised Baux (R-Baux) has been externally validated thoroughly only once and the pediatric Baux (P-Baux) has yet to be. Using 522 severely burned patients, we show that burn formulae (ABSI, Baux, revised Baux) outperform APACHEII among adults (AUROC increase p<0.001 adults; p>0.5 children). The Ryan Score performs well especially among the most at-risk populations (estimated mortality [90% CI] original versus current study: 33% [26-41%] versus 30.18% [24.25-36.86%] for Ryan Score 2; 87% [78-93%] versus 66.48% [51.31-78.87%] for Ryan Score 3). The R-Baux shows accurate discrimination (AUROC 0.908 [0.869-0.947]) and is well-calibrated. However, the ABSI and P-Baux, although showing high measures of discrimination (AUROC 0.826 [0.737-0.916] and 0.848 [0.758-0.938]) in children), exceedingly overestimates mortality, indicating poor calibration. We highlight challenges in designing and employing scores that are applicable to a wide range of populations.

Prediction of multiple infections after severe burn trauma: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hypersusceptibility to repeated infections. BACKGROUND: Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with 20% or more total body surface area burns recruited from 6 US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-hour cutoff on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hypersusceptible patients [multiple (≥2) infection episodes (MIE)]. We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Three predictive models were developed using covariates of (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status [AUROCGenomic = 0.946 (95% CI: 0.906-0.986); AUROCClinical = 0.864 (CI: 0.794-0.933); AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044]. Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI: 0.940-0.993) compared with the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hypersusceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation, and chromatin remodeling. CONCLUSIONS: Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hypersusceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets.

Comprehensive Genomic Characterization of Long Non-coding RNAs across Human Cancers.

The discovery of long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) has dramatically altered our understanding of cancer. Here, we describe a comprehensive analysis of lncRNA alterations at transcriptional, genomic, and epigenetic levels in 5,037 human tumor specimens across 13 cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Our results suggest that the expression and dysregulation of lncRNAs are highly cancer type specific compared with protein-coding genes. Using the integrative data generated by this analysis, we present a clinically guided small interfering RNA screening strategy and a co-expression analysis approach to identify cancer driver lncRNAs and predict their functions. This provides a resource for investigating lncRNAs in cancer and lays the groundwork for the development of new diagnostics and treatments.

Eosinophilic oesophagitis: relationship of quality of life with clinical, endoscopic and histological activity.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about determinants of quality of life (QoL) in eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoO) patients helps to identify patients at risk of experiencing poor QoL and to tailor therapeutic interventions accordingly. AIM: To evaluate the impact of symptom severity, endoscopic and histological activity on EoE-specific QoL in adult EoE patients. METHODS: Ninety-eight adult EoE patients were prospectively included (64% male, median age 39 years). Patients completed two validated instruments to assess EoE-specific QoL (EoO-QoL-A) and symptom severity (adult EoE activity index patient-reported outcome) and then underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsy sampling. Physicians reported standardised information on EoE-associated endoscopic and histological alterations. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the relationship between QoL and symptom severity. Linear regression and analysis of variance was used to quantify the extent to which variations in severity of EoE symptoms, endoscopic and histological findings explain variations in QoL. RESULTS: Quality of life strongly correlated with symptom severity (r = 0.610, P < 0.001). While the variation in severity of symptoms, endoscopic and histological findings alone explained 38%, 35% and 22% of the variability in EoE-related QoL, respectively, these together explained 60% of variation. Symptom severity explained 18-35% of the variation in each of the five QoL subscale scores. CONCLUSIONS: Eosinophilic oesophagitis symptom severity and biological disease activity determine QoL in adult patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. Therefore, reduction in both eosinophilic oesophagitis symptoms as well as biological disease activity is essential for improvement of QoL in adult patients. Clinicaltrials.gov number, NCT00939263.

Escalating incidence of eosinophilic esophagitis in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, 1993-2013: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic, inflammatory disease of the esophagus with a rapidly increasing incidence. However, population-based epidemiologic data on EoE are rare and limited to regions with less than 200 000 inhabitants. We evaluated the incidence and prevalence of EoE over time in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Canton of Vaud lies in the French-speaking, Western part of Switzerland. As of December 2013, it had a population of 743 317 inhabitants. We contacted all pathology institutes (n = 6) in this canton to identify patients that have been diagnosed with esophageal eosinophilia between 1993 and 2013. We then performed a chart review in all adult and pediatric gastroenterology practices to identify patients with EoE. RESULTS: Of 263 patients with esophageal eosinophilia, a total of 179 fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for EoE. Median diagnostic delay was 4 (IQR 1-9) years. No patient was diagnosed with EoE prior to 2003. Incidence of EoE increased from 0.16/100 000 inhabitants in 2004 to 6.3/100 000 inhabitants in 2013 (P < 0.001). The cumulative EoE prevalence in 2013 was 24.1/100 000. The incidence in males was 2.8 times higher (95% CI 2.01-3.88, P < 0.001) when compared to that in females. The annual EoE incidence was 10.6 times higher (95%-CI 7.61-14.87, P < 0.001) in the period from 2010 to 2013 when compared to that in the period from 1993 to 2009. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and cumulative prevalence of EoE in Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, has rapidly increased in the past 10 years.

Symptoms Have Modest Accuracy in Detecting Endoscopic and Histologic Remission in Adults With Eosinophilic Esophagitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is not clear whether symptoms alone can be used to estimate the biologic activity of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). We aimed to evaluate whether symptoms can be used to identify patients with endoscopic and histologic features of remission. METHODS: Between April 2011 and June 2014, we performed a prospective, observational study and recruited 269 consecutive adults with EoE (67% male; median age, 39 years old) in Switzerland and the United States. Patients first completed the validated symptom-based EoE activity index patient-reported outcome instrument and then underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy with esophageal biopsy collection. Endoscopic and histologic findings were evaluated with a validated grading system and standardized instrument, respectively. Clinical remission was defined as symptom score <20 (range, 0-100); histologic remission was defined as a peak count of <20 eosinophils/mm(2) in a high-power field (corresponds to approximately <5 eosinophils/median high-power field); and endoscopic remission as absence of white exudates, moderate or severe rings, strictures, or combination of furrows and edema. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the best symptom score cutoff values for detection of remission. RESULTS: Of the study subjects, 111 were in clinical remission (41.3%), 79 were in endoscopic remission (29.7%), and 75 were in histologic remission (27.9%). When the symptom score was used as a continuous variable, patients in endoscopic, histologic, and combined (endoscopic and histologic remission) remission were detected with area under the curve values of 0.67, 0.60, and 0.67, respectively. A symptom score of 20 identified patients in endoscopic remission with 65.1% accuracy and histologic remission with 62.1% accuracy; a symptom score of 15 identified patients with both types of remission with 67.7% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with EoE, endoscopic or histologic remission can be identified with only modest accuracy based on symptoms alone. At any given time, physicians cannot rely on lack of symptoms to make assumptions about lack of biologic disease activity in adults with EoE. ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT00939263.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.