A discrete forest in a continuous landscape : investigating interactions between natural resource management and sustainable development

Summary Forests are key ecosystems of the earth and associated with a large range of functions. Many of these functions are beneficial to humans and are referred to as ecosystem services. Sustainable development requires that all relevant ecosystem services are quantified, managed and monitored equally. Natural resource management therefore targets the services associated with ecosystems. The main hypothesis of this thesis is that the spatial and temporal domains of relevant services do not correspond to a discrete forest ecosystem. As a consequence, the services are not quantified, managed and monitored in an equal and sustainable manner. The thesis aims were therefore to test this hypothesis, establish an improved conceptual approach and provide spatial applications for the relevant land cover and structure variables. The study was carried out in western Switzerland and based primarily on data from a countrywide landscape inventory. This inventory is part of the third Swiss national forest inventory and assesses continuous landscape variables based on a regular sampling of true colour aerial imagery. In addition, land cover variables were derived from Landsat 5 TM passive sensor data and land structure variables from active sensor data from a small footprint laserscanning system. The results confirmed the main hypothesis, as relevant services did not scale well with the forest ecosystem. Instead, a new conceptual approach for sustainable management of natural resources was described. This concept quantifies the services as a continuous function of the landscape, rather than a discrete function of the forest ecosystem. The explanatory landscape variables are therefore called continuous fields and the forest becomes a dependent and function-driven management unit. Continuous field mapping methods were established for land cover and structure variables. In conclusion, the discrete forest ecosystem is an adequate planning and management unit. However, monitoring the state of and trends in sustainability of services requires them to be quantified as a continuous function of the landscape. Sustainable natural resource management iteratively combines the ecosystem and gradient approaches. Résumé Les forêts sont des écosystèmes-clés de la terre et on leur attribue un grand nombre de fonctions. Beaucoup de ces fonctions sont bénéfiques pour l'homme et sont nommées services écosystémiques. Le développement durable exige que ces services écosystémiques soient tous quantifiés, gérés et surveillés de façon égale. La gestion des ressources naturelles a donc pour cible les services attribués aux écosystèmes. L'hypothèse principale de cette thèse est que les domaines spatiaux et temporels des services attribués à la forêt ne correspondent pas à un écosystème discret. Par conséquent, les services ne sont pas quantifiés, aménagés et surveillés d'une manière équivalente et durable. Les buts de la thèse étaient de tester cette hypothèse, d'établir une nouvelle approche conceptuelle de la gestion des ressources naturelles et de préparer des applications spatiales pour les variables paysagères et structurelles appropriées. L'étude a été menée en Suisse occidentale principalement sur la base d'un inventaire de paysage à l'échelon national. Cet inventaire fait partie du troisième inventaire forestier national suisse et mesure de façon continue des variables paysagères sur la base d'un échantillonnage régulier sur des photos aériennes couleur. En outre, des variables de couverture ? terrestre ont été dérivées des données d'un senseur passif Landsat 5 TM, ainsi que des variables structurelles, dérivées du laserscanning, un senseur actif. Les résultats confirment l'hypothèse principale, car l'échelle des services ne correspond pas à celle de l'écosystème forestier. Au lieu de cela, une nouvelle approche a été élaborée pour la gestion durable des ressources naturelles. Ce concept représente les services comme une fonction continue du paysage, plutôt qu'une fonction discrète de l'écosystème forestier. En conséquence, les variables explicatives de paysage sont dénommées continuous fields et la forêt devient une entité dépendante, définie par la fonction principale du paysage. Des méthodes correspondantes pour la couverture terrestre et la structure ont été élaborées. En conclusion, l'écosystème forestier discret est une unité adéquate pour la planification et la gestion. En revanche, la surveillance de la durabilité de l'état et de son évolution exige que les services soient quantifiés comme fonction continue du paysage. La gestion durable des ressources naturelles joint donc l'approche écosystémique avec celle du gradient de manière itérative.

Use of high-resolution geophysical data to characterize heterogeneous aquifers: influence of data integration method on hydrological predictions

The integration of geophysical data into the subsurface characterization problem has been shown in many cases to significantly improve hydrological knowledge by providing information at spatial scales and locations that is unattainable using conventional hydrological measurement techniques. The investigation of exactly how much benefit can be brought by geophysical data in terms of its effect on hydrological predictions, however, has received considerably less attention in the literature. Here, we examine the potential hydrological benefits brought by a recently introduced simulated annealing (SA) conditional stochastic simulation method designed for the assimilation of diverse hydrogeophysical data sets. We consider the specific case of integrating crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and borehole porosity log data to characterize the porosity distribution in saturated heterogeneous aquifers. In many cases, porosity is linked to hydraulic conductivity and thus to flow and transport behavior. To perform our evaluation, we first generate a number of synthetic porosity fields exhibiting varying degrees of spatial continuity and structural complexity. Next, we simulate the collection of crosshole GPR data between several boreholes in these fields, and the collection of porosity log data at the borehole locations. The inverted GPR data, together with the porosity logs, are then used to reconstruct the porosity field using the SA-based method, along with a number of other more elementary approaches. Assuming that the grid-cell-scale relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity is unique and known, the porosity realizations are then used in groundwater flow and contaminant transport simulations to assess the benefits and limitations of the different approaches.

Using 3D surface datasets to understand landslide evolution: From analogue models to real case study

Early detection of landslide surface deformation with 3D remote sensing techniques, as TLS, has become a great challenge during last decade. To improve our understanding of landslide deformation, a series of analogue simulation have been carried out on non-rigid bodies coupled with 3D digitizer. All these experiments have been carried out under controlled conditions, as water level and slope angle inclination. We were able to follow 3D surface deformation suffered by complex landslide bodies from precursory deformation still larger failures. These experiments were the basis for the development of a new algorithm for the quantification of surface deformation using automatic tracking method on discrete points of the slope surface. To validate the algorithm, comparisons were made between manually obtained results and algorithm surface displacement results. Outputs will help in understanding 3D deformation during pre-failure stages and failure mechanisms, which are fundamental aspects for future implementation of 3D remote sensing techniques in early warning systems.

Effects of Interviewer Experience on Components of Nonresponse in the European Social Survey

We analyze interviewer related nonresponse differences in face-to-face surveys distinguishing three types of interviewers: those who have previous experience with the same high standard cross-sectional survey ("experienced"), those who were chosen by the survey agency to complete refusal conversions ("seniors"), and usual interviewers. The nonresponse components are obtaining household contact, target person contact, and target person cooperation. In addition we examine if interviewer homogeneity with respect to these components is different across the three interviewer groups. Data come from the European Social Survey (ESS) contact forms from four countries which participated during the three rounds 2002/04/06 and used the same survey agency that in turn used to some extent the same interviewers. To analyze interviewer effects, we use discrete two-level models. We find some evidence of better performance by both senior and experienced interviewers and indications of greater homogeneity for nonresponse components, especially for those that contain room for improvement. Surprisingly, the senior interviewers do not outperform those experienced. We conclude that survey agencies should make more efforts to decrease the comparatively high interviewer turnover.

The prognostic value of health-related quality-of-life data in predicting survival in glioblastoma cancer patients: results from an international randomised phase III EORTC Brain Tumour and Radiation Oncology Groups, and NCIC Clinical Trials Group study.

This is one of the few studies that have explored the value of baseline symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in predicting survival in brain cancer patients. Baseline HRQOL scores (from the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the Brain Cancer Module (BN 20)) were examined in 490 newly diagnosed glioblastoma cancer patients for the relationship with overall survival by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Refined techniques as the bootstrap re-sampling procedure and the computation of C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients were used to try and validate the model. Classical analysis controlled for major clinical prognostic factors selected cognitive functioning (P=0.0001), global health status (P=0.0055) and social functioning (P<0.0001) as statistically significant prognostic factors of survival. However, several issues question the validity of these findings. C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients, which are measures of the predictive ability of the models, did not exhibit major improvements when adding selected or all HRQOL scores to clinical factors. While classical techniques lead to positive results, more refined analyses suggest that baseline HRQOL scores add relatively little to clinical factors to predict survival. These results may have implications for future use of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in cancer patients.

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

Antitumour effects of single or combined monoclonal antibodies directed against membrane antigens expressed by human B cells leukaemia.

Background: The increasing availability of different monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) opens the way to more specific biologic therapy of cancer patients. However, despite the significant success of therapy in breast and ovarian carcinomas with anti-HER2 mAbs as well as in non-Hodkin B cell lymphomas with anti-CD20 mAbs, certain B cell malignancies such as B chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (B-CLL) respond poorly to anti-CD20 mAb, due to the low surface expression of this molecule. Thus, new mAbs adapted to each types of tumour will help to develop personalised mAb treatment. To this aim, we analyse the biological and therapeutic properties of three mAbs directed against the CD5, CD71 or HLA-DR molecules highly expressed on B-CLL cells. Results: The three mAbs, after purification and radiolabelling demonstrated high and specific binding capacity to various human leukaemia target cells. Further in vitro analysis showed that mAb anti-CD5 induced neither growth inhibition nor apoptosis, mAb anti-CD71 induced proliferation inhibition with no early sign of cell death and mAb anti-HLA-DR induced specific cell aggregation, but without evidence of apoptosis. All three mAbs induced various degrees of ADCC by NK cells, as well as phagocytosis by macrophages. Only the anti-HLA-DR mAb induced complement mediated lysis. Coincubation of different pairs of mAbs did not significantly modify the in vitro results. In contrast with these discrete and heterogeneous in vitro effects, in vivo the three mAbs demonstrated marked anti-tumour efficacy and prolongation of mice survival in two models of SCID mice, grafted either intraperitoneally or intravenously with the CD5 transfected JOK1-5.3 cells. This cell line was derived from a human hairy cell leukaemia, a type of malignancy known to have very similar biological properties as the B-CLL, whose cells constitutively express CD5. Interestingly, the combined injection of anti-CD5 with anti-HLA-DR or with anti-CD71 led to longer mouse survival, as compared to single mAb injection, up to complete inhibition of tumour growth in 100% mice treated with both anti-HLA-DR and anti-CD5. Conclusions: Altogether these data suggest that the combined use of two mAbs, such as anti-HLA-DR and anti-CD5, may significantly enhance their therapeutic potential.

Health literacy [Document électronique] : an economic perspective and data for Switzerland. Part 2, A review of health literacy measures and a cost assessment of limited health literacy

Summary : 1. Measuring health literacy in Switzerland: a review of six surveys: 1.1 Comparison of questionnaires - 1.2 Measures of health literacy in Switzerland - 1.3 Discussion of Swiss data on HL - 1.4 Description of the six surveys: 1.4.1 Current health trends and health literacy in the Swiss population (gfs-UNIVOX), 1.4.2 Nutrition, physical exercise and body weight : opinions and perceptions of the Swiss population (USI), 1.4.3 Health Literacy in Switzerland (ISPMZ), 1.4.4 Swiss Health Survey (SHS), 1.4.5 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), 1.4.6 Adult literacy and life skills survey (ALL). - 2 . Economic costs of low health literacy in Switzerland: a rough calculation. Appendix: Screenshots cost model

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Comparative analysis of human and mouse expression data illuminates tissue-specific evolutionary patterns of miRNAs.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) constitute an important class of gene regulators. While models have been proposed to explain their appearance and expansion, the validation of these models has been difficult due to the lack of comparative studies. Here, we analyze miRNA evolutionary patterns in two mammals, human and mouse, in relation to the age of miRNA families. In this comparative framework, we confirm some predictions of previously advanced models of miRNA evolution, e.g. that miRNAs arise more frequently de novo than by duplication, or that the number of protein-coding gene targeted by miRNAs decreases with evolutionary time. We also corroborate that miRNAs display an increase in expression level with evolutionary time, however we show that this relation is largely tissue-dependent, and especially low in embryonic or nervous tissues. We identify a bias of tag-sequencing techniques regarding the assessment of breadth of expression, leading us, contrary to predictions, to find more tissue-specific expression of older miRNAs. Together, our results refine the models used so far to depict the evolution of miRNA genes. They underline the role of tissue-specific selective forces on the evolution of miRNAs, as well as the potential co-evolution patterns between miRNAs and the protein-coding genes they target.

Neuronal in vitro models for the estimation of acute systemic toxicity.

The objective of the EU funded integrated project "ACuteTox" is to develop a strategy in which general cytotoxicity, together with organ-specific endpoints and biokinetic features, are taken into consideration in the in vitro prediction of oral acute systemic toxicity. With regard to the nervous system, the effects of 23 reference chemicals were tested with approximately 50 endpoints, using a neuronal cell line, primary neuronal cell cultures, brain slices and aggregated brain cell cultures. Comparison of the in vitro neurotoxicity data with general cytotoxicity data generated in a non-neuronal cell line and with in vivo data such as acute human lethal blood concentration, revealed that GABA(A) receptor function, acetylcholine esterase activity, cell membrane potential, glucose uptake, total RNA expression and altered gene expression of NF-H, GFAP, MBP, HSP32 and caspase-3 were the best endpoints to use for further testing with 36 additional chemicals. The results of the second analysis showed that no single neuronal endpoint could give a perfect improvement in the in vitro-in vivo correlation, indicating that several specific endpoints need to be analysed and combined with biokinetic data to obtain the best correlation with in vivo acute toxicity.

Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries.

With advances in the effectiveness of treatment and disease management, the contribution of chronic comorbid diseases (comorbidities) found within the Charlson comorbidity index to mortality is likely to have changed since development of the index in 1984. The authors reevaluated the Charlson index and reassigned weights to each condition by identifying and following patients to observe mortality within 1 year after hospital discharge. They applied the updated index and weights to hospital discharge data from 6 countries and tested for their ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Compared with the original Charlson weights, weights generated from the Calgary, Alberta, Canada, data (2004) were 0 for 5 comorbidities, decreased for 3 comorbidities, increased for 4 comorbidities, and did not change for 5 comorbidities. The C statistics for discriminating in-hospital mortality between the new score generated from the 12 comorbidities and the Charlson score were 0.825 (new) and 0.808 (old), respectively, in Australian data (2008), 0.828 and 0.825 in Canadian data (2008), 0.878 and 0.882 in French data (2004), 0.727 and 0.723 in Japanese data (2008), 0.831 and 0.836 in New Zealand data (2008), and 0.869 and 0.876 in Swiss data (2008). The updated index of 12 comorbidities showed good-to-excellent discrimination in predicting in-hospital mortality in data from 6 countries and may be more appropriate for use with more recent administrative data.

Inversion of crosshole seismic data in heterogenous environments : Comparison of waveform and ray-based approaches

High-resolution tomographic imaging of the shallow subsurface is becoming increasingly important for a wide range of environmental, hydrological and engineering applications. Because of their superior resolution power, their sensitivity to pertinent petrophysical parameters, and their far reaching complementarities, both seismic and georadar crosshole imaging are of particular importance. To date, corresponding approaches have largely relied on asymptotic, ray-based approaches, which only account for a very small part of the observed wavefields, inherently suffer from a limited resolution, and in complex environments may prove to be inadequate. These problems can potentially be alleviated through waveform inversion. We have developed an acoustic waveform inversion approach for crosshole seismic data whose kernel is based on a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) solution of the 2-D acoustic wave equations. This algorithm is tested on and applied to synthetic data from seismic velocity models of increasing complexity and realism and the results are compared to those obtained using state-of-the-art ray-based traveltime tomography. Regardless of the heterogeneity of the underlying models, the waveform inversion approach has the potential of reliably resolving both the geometry and the acoustic properties of features of the size of less than half a dominant wavelength. Our results do, however, also indicate that, within their inherent resolution limits, ray-based approaches provide an effective and efficient means to obtain satisfactory tomographic reconstructions of the seismic velocity structure in the presence of mild to moderate heterogeneity and in absence of strong scattering. Conversely, the excess effort of waveform inversion provides the greatest benefits for the most heterogeneous, and arguably most realistic, environments where multiple scattering effects tend to be prevalent and ray-based methods lose most of their effectiveness.

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Pooling of dentin microtensile bond strength data improves clinical correlation.

Purpose: To evaluate whether the correlation between in vitro bond strength data and estimated clinical retention rates of cervical restorations after two years depends on pooled data obtained from multicenter studies or single-test data. Materials and Methods: Pooled mean data for six dentin adhesive systems (Adper Prompt L-Pop, Clearfil SE, OptiBond FL, Prime & Bond NT, Single Bond, and Scotchbond Multipurpose) and four laboratory methods (macroshear, microshear, macrotensile and microtensile bond strength test) (Scherrer et al, 2010) were correlated to estimated pooled two-year retention rates of Class V restorations using the same adhesive systems. For bond strength data from a single test institute, the literature search in SCOPUS revealed one study that tested all six adhesive systems (microtensile) and two that tested five of the six systems (microtensile, macroshear). The correlation was determined with a database designed to perform a meta-analysis on the clinical performance of cervical restorations (Heintze et al, 2010). The clinical data were pooled and adjusted in a linear mixed model, taking the study effect, dentin preparation, type of isolation and bevelling of enamel into account. A regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation between clinical and laboratory findings. Results: The results of the regression analysis for the pooled data revealed that only the macrotensile (adjusted R2 = 0.86) and microtensile tests (adjusted R2 = 0.64), but not the shear and the microshear tests, correlated well with the clinical findings. As regards the data from a single-test institute, the correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Macrotensile and microtensile bond strength tests showed an adequate correlation with the retention rate of cervical restorations after two years. Bond strength tests should be carried out by different operators and/or research institutes to determine the reliability and technique sensitivity of the material under investigation.