Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Frequent accesses to totally implanted vascular ports in pediatric oncology patients are associated with higher infection rates.

PURPOSE: Totally implanted vascular (TIVA) ports are used in children for repeated blood samples or intravenous treatments. We have recently published a prospective evaluation of surgical incidents and early complications associated with these devices. This work is the final part of the same study, assessing late complications over a follow-up of 2 yrs. METHODS: From January 2006 to January 2008, children older than 1 yr of age with a diagnosis of solid or blood cell malignancy were included. Insertion technique and care of the device were standardized. Every manipulation was prospectively recorded by specialized nurses. Obstruction was documented clinically. When bacteremia was suspected, routine central and peripheral blood cultures were drawn. RESULTS: Forty-five consecutive patients were enrolled in the study. Mean age at the time of the procedure was 8.5 yrs. There was no catheter-related infection within the first 4 weeks post-surgery. No device had to be removed because of infection or obstruction during follow-up. Frequent accesses to the port (=3 per day over a 10-day period) were associated with an 8-fold risk of infection. CONCLUSION: Insertion and use of TIVA devices were frequently associated with complications. No device had to be removed because of infection or obstruction over the follow-up period, although no prophylactic antibiotic agent was used. Restrictive use of antibiotics may prevent opportunistic infection. Frequent access to the device was significantly associated with line infection (odds ratio=8.43). No risk factor was identified for obstruction which occurred at a rate of 5.3 per 10,000 accesses.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures.

BACKGROUND: Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited. METHODS: First, factors associated with a switch to RAL were identified with a logistic regression including patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a history of 3 class failure (n = 423). Second, predictors for virologic outcome were identified in an intent-to-treat analysis including all patients who received RAL. Last observation carried forward imputation was used to determine week 24 response rate (HIV-1 RNA >or= 50 copies/mL). RESULTS: The predominant factor associated with a switch to RAL in patients with suppressed baseline RNA was a regimen containing enfuvirtide [odds ratio 41.9 (95% confidence interval: 11.6-151.6)]. Efficacy analysis showed an overall response rate of 80.9% (152/188), whereas 71.8% (84/117) and 95.8% (68/71) showed viral suppression when stratified for detectable and undetectable RNA at baseline, respectively. Overall CD4 cell counts increased significantly by 42 cells/microL (P < 0.001). Characteristics of failures were a genotypic sensitivity score of the background regimen <or=1, very low RAL plasma concentrations, poor adherence, and high viral load at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression rates in our routine clinical care setting were promising and comparable with data from previously published randomized-controlled trials.

Trace element supplementation modulates pulmonary infection rates after major burns: a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Infections remain the leading cause of death after major burns. Trace elements are involved in immunity and burn patients suffer acute trace element depletion after injury. In a previous nonrandomized study, trace element supplementation was associated with increased leukocyte counts and shortened hospital stays. This randomized, placebo-controlled trial studied clinical and immune effects of trace element supplements. Twenty patients, aged 40 +/- 16 y (mean +/- SD), burned on 48 +/- 17% of their body surfaces, were studied for 30 d after injury. They consumed either standard trace element intakes plus supplements (40.4 micromol Cu, 2.9 micromol Se, and 406 micromol Zn; group TE) or standard trace element intakes plus placebo (20 micromol Cu, 0.4 micromol Se, and 100 micromol Zn; group C) for 8 d. Demographic data were similar for both groups. Mean plasma copper and zinc concentrations were below normal until days 20 and 15, respectively (NS). Plasma selenium remained normal for group TE but decreased for group C (P < 0.05 on days 1 and 5). Total leukocyte counts tended to be higher in group TE because of higher neutrophil counts. Proliferation to mitogens was depressed compared with healthy control subjects (NS). The number of infections per patient was significantly (P < 0.05) lower in group TE (1.9 +/- 0.9) than in group C (3.1 +/- 1.1) because of fewer pulmonary infections. Early trace element supplementation appears beneficial after major burns; it was associated with a significant decrease in the number of bronchopneumonia infections and with a shorter hospital stay when data were normalized for burn size.

Fracture rates of IPS Empress all-ceramic crowns: a systematic review.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical fracture rate of crowns fabricated with the pressable, leucite-reinforced ceramic IPS Empress, and relate the results to the type of tooth restored. Materials and Methods: The database SCOPUS was searched for clinical studies involving full-coverage crowns made of IPS Empress. To assess the fracture rate of the crowns in relation to the type of restored tooth and study, Poisson regression analysis was used. Results: Seven clinical studies were identified involving 1,487 adhesively luted crowns (mean observation time: 4.5 +/- 1.7 years) and 81 crowns cemented with zinc-phosphate cement (mean observation time: 1.6 +/- 0.8 years). Fifty-seven of the adhesively luted crowns fractured (3.8%). The majority of fractures (62%) occurred between the third and sixth year after placement. There was no significant influence regarding the test center on fracture rate, but the restored tooth type played a significant role. The hazard rate (per year) for crowns was estimated to be 5 in every 1,000 crowns for incisors, 7 in every 1,000 crowns for premolars, 12 in every 1,000 crowns for canines, and 16 in every 1,000 crowns for molars. One molar crown in the zinc-phosphate group fractured after 1.2 years. Conclusion: Adhesively luted IPS Empress crowns showed a low fracture rate for incisors and premolars and a somewhat higher rate for molars and canines. The sample size of the conventionally luted crowns was too small and the observation period too short to draw meaningful conclusions. Int J Prosthodont 2010;23:129-133.

Reproducibility of Fatmax and Fat Oxidation Rates during Exercise in Recreationally Trained Males.

Aerobic exercise training performed at the intensity eliciting maximal fat oxidation (Fatmax) has been shown to improve the metabolic profile of obese patients. However, limited information is available on the reproducibility of Fatmax and related physiological measures. The aim of this study was to assess the intra-individual variability of: a) Fatmax measurements determined using three different data analysis approaches and b) fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates at rest and at each stage of an individualized graded test. Fifteen healthy males [body mass index 23.1±0.6 kg/m2, maximal oxygen consumption ([Formula: see text]) 52.0±2.0 ml/kg/min] completed a maximal test and two identical submaximal incremental tests on ergocycle (30-min rest followed by 5-min stages with increments of 7.5% of the maximal power output). Fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. Fatmax was determined with three approaches: the sine model (SIN), measured values (MV) and 3rd polynomial curve (P3). Intra-individual coefficients of variation (CVs) and limits of agreement were calculated. CV for Fatmax determined with SIN was 16.4% and tended to be lower than with P3 and MV (18.6% and 20.8%, respectively). Limits of agreement for Fatmax were -2±27% of [Formula: see text] with SIN, -4±32 with P3 and -4±28 with MV. CVs of oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide production and respiratory exchange rate were <10% at rest and <5% during exercise. Conversely, CVs of fat oxidation rates (20% at rest and 24-49% during exercise) and carbohydrate oxidation rates (33.5% at rest, 8.5-12.9% during exercise) were higher. The intra-individual variability of Fatmax and fat oxidation rates was high (CV>15%), regardless of the data analysis approach employed. Further research on the determinants of the variability of Fatmax and fat oxidation rates is required.

Inferring recent migration rates from individual genotypes.

We present a novel and straightforward method for estimating recent migration rates between discrete populations using multilocus genotype data. The approach builds upon a two-step sampling design, where individual genotypes are sampled before and after dispersal. We develop a model that estimates all pairwise backwards migration rates (m(ij), the probability that an individual sampled in population i is a migrant from population j) between a set of populations. The method is validated with simulated data and compared with the methods of BayesAss and Structure. First, we use data for an island model and then we consider more realistic data simulations for a metapopulation of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula). We show that the precision and bias of estimates primarily depend upon the proportion of individuals sampled in each population. Weak sampling designs may particularly affect the quality of the coverage provided by 95% highest posterior density intervals. We further show that it is relatively insensitive to the number of loci sampled and the overall strength of genetic structure. The method can easily be extended and makes fewer assumptions about the underlying demographic and genetic processes than currently available methods. It allows backwards migration rates to be estimated across a wide range of realistic conditions.

High constant incidence rates of second primary neoplasms

The incidence of contralateral breast cancer is high and constant with age, around five per 1000 women who had a primary breast cancer. For other neoplasms, the pattern of incidence of second primary neoplasms with age is less known, particularly as for only a few neoplasms the site of origin is not totally removed, and hence remains at risk of a second primary. Using the dataset from the Cancer Registry of the Swiss Canton of Vaud, we show that the incidence of second neoplasms is constant with age also after oral and pharyngeal, colorectal cancers, cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and basal cell carcinoma. The incidence of first primary oral and pharyngeal cancer increased 20-fold between age 30-39 and 70-89 years, whereas the incidence of second neoplasms did not increase with age. Rates of second colorectal cancer remained relatively constant with age, between 2.5 per 1000 at age 40-59 years and 3.8 per 1000 at 70 years and above. Likewise, for CMM, the age-specific incidence rates of second primary CMM did not vary, ranging between 1 and 2.5 per 1000 in various subsequent age groups. The pattern of incidence for second basal cell carcinoma was similar, with no clear rise with age. These patterns are compatible with the occurrence of a single mutational event in a population of susceptible individuals. A possible implication of these observations is that a variable, but potentially large, proportion of cancers arise in very high-risk individuals and the incidence, on average, increases at a high constant level at a predetermined age.

Viral suppression rates in salvage treatment with raltegravir improved with the administration of genotypic partially active or inactive nucleoside/tide reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are often administered in salvage therapy even if genotypic resistance tests (GRTs) indicate high-level resistance, but little is known about the benefit of these additional NRTIs. METHODS: The effect of <2 compared with 2 NRTIs on viral suppression (HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL) at week 24 was studied in salvage patients receiving raltegravir. Intent-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed; last observation carried forward imputation was used to deal with missing information. Logistic regressions were weighted to create a pseudopopulation in which the probability of receiving <2 and 2 NRTIs was unrelated to baseline factors predicting treatment response. RESULTS: One-hundred thirty patients were included, of whom 58.5% (n = 76) received <2 NRTIs. NRTIs were often replaced by other drug classes. Patients with 2 NRTIs received less additional drug classes compared with patients with <2 NRTIs [median (IQR): 1 (1-2) compared with 2 (1-2), P Wilcoxon < 0.001]. The activity of non-NRTI treatment components was lower in the 2 NRTIs group compared with the <2 NRTIs group [median (IQR) genotypic sensitivity score: 2 (1.5-2.5) compared with 2.5 (2-3), P Wilcoxon < 0.001]. The administration of <2 NRTIs was associated with a worse viral suppression rate at week 24. The odds ratios were 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.13 to 0.89, P = 0.027) and 0.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.79, P = 0.023) when performing the last observation carried forward and the per-protocol approach, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed that partially active or inactive NRTIs contribute to treatment response, and thus the use of 2 NRTIs in salvage regimens that include raltegravir seems warranted.

Olivine growth-rates in a tholeiitic basalt - an experimental study of melt inclusions in plagioclase

Basaltic glass inclusions trapped in plagioclase phenocrysts (An84) are remnant of their parent magmatic liquid. They can be used as natural reactors for the experimental investigation of olivine growth rate as a function of temperature. The growth of one olivine nucleus can be observed at constant temperature. Supercooling from 15-degrees to 150-degrees-C have been investigated. Growth habits vary from equant to feather in qualitative agreement with previous studies. Growth rates vary from < 10(-10) m s-1 to 6.10(-7) m s-1; they vary with the direction, the growth process (planar or dendritic) and the degree of supercooling. Chemical analysis of crystal overgrowth and the remaining liquid composition enables a mass-balance calculation which confirms the rates determined optically. The small number of results obtained so far does not permit to draw inferences on the growth mechanisms.

The persistence of lifestyles: rates and correlates of homicide in Western Europe from 1960 to 2010

This article analyses rates and correlates of homicide in 15 West European countries from 1960 to 2010. The results show that the levels of homicide in 2010 and the trends in homicide from 1960 to 2010 are not related to any of the traditional demographic and socioeconomic predictors of crime. Homicide victimization rates show an increase from the mid-1960s until the early 1990s, and a decrease since then. Victims of both genders and all group ages follow the same trend, except in the case of infanticide, which decreased during the whole period. These results do not support the hypothesis of a homicide trend driven by the evolution of victimization of young men in public space. The authors propose an explanation based on a lifestyle approach.

Comparing interval breast cancer rates in Norway and North Carolina: results and challenges.

OBJECTIVE: To compare interval breast cancer rates (ICR) between a biennial organized screening programme in Norway and annual opportunistic screening in North Carolina (NC) for different conceptualizations of interval cancer. SETTING: Two regions with different screening practices and performance. METHODS: 620,145 subsequent screens (1996-2002) performed in women aged 50-69 and 1280 interval cancers were analysed. Various definitions and quantification methods for interval cancers were compared. RESULTS: ICR for one year follow-up were lower in Norway compared with NC both when the rate was based on all screens (0.54 versus 1.29 per 1000 screens), negative final assessments (0.54 versus 1.29 per 1000 screens), and negative screening assessments (0.53 versus 1.28 per 1000 screens). The rate of ductal carcinoma in situ was significantly lower in Norway than in NC for cases diagnosed in both the first and second year after screening. The distributions of histopathological tumour size and lymph node involvement in invasive cases did not differ between the two regions for interval cancers diagnosed during the first year after screening. In contrast, in the second year after screening, tumour characteristics remained stable in Norway but became prognostically more favorable in NC. CONCLUSION: Even when applying a common set of definitions of interval cancer, the ICR was lower in Norway than in NC. Different definitions of interval cancer did not influence the ICR within Norway or NC. Organization of screening and screening performance might be major contributors to the differences in ICR between Norway and NC.