Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Trabecular Bone Score: A Noninvasive Analytical Method Based Upon the DXA Image.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural metric that can be extracted from the two-dimensional lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image. TBS is related to bone microarchitecture and provides skeletal information that is not captured from the standard bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Based on experimental variograms of the projected DXA image, TBS has the potential to discern differences between DXA scans that show similar BMD measurements. An elevated TBS value correlates with better skeletal microstructure; a low TBS value correlates with weaker skeletal microstructure. Lumbar spine TBS has been evaluated in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. The following conclusions are based upon publications reviewed in this article: 1) TBS gives lower values in postmenopausal women and in men with previous fragility fractures than their nonfractured counterparts; 2) TBS is complementary to data available by lumbar spine DXA measurements; 3) TBS results are lower in women who have sustained a fragility fracture but in whom DXA does not indicate osteoporosis or even osteopenia; 4) TBS predicts fracture risk as well as lumbar spine BMD measurements in postmenopausal women; 5) efficacious therapies for osteoporosis differ in the extent to which they influence the TBS; 6) TBS is associated with fracture risk in individuals with conditions related to reduced bone mass or bone quality. Based on these data, lumbar spine TBS holds promise as an emerging technology that could well become a valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in fracture risk assessment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Extent of hypoattenuation on CT angiography source images in basilar artery occlusion: prognostic value in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) quantifies the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation with a 10-point grading system. We hypothesized that pc-ASPECTS applied to CT angiography source images predicts functional outcome of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS). METHODS: BASICS was a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion. Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS to CT angiography source images of patients with CT angiography for confirmation of basilar artery occlusion. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥8 versus <8. Primary outcome measure was favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-3). Secondary outcome measures were mortality and functional independence (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-2). RESULTS: Of 158 patients included, 78 patients had a CT angiography source images pc-ASPECTS≥8. Patients with a pc-ASPECTS≥8 more often had a favorable outcome than patients with a pc-ASPECTS<8 (crude RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.98-3.0). After adjustment for age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and thrombolysis, pc-ASPECTS≥8 was not related to favorable outcome (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8-2.2), but it was related to reduced mortality (RR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.98) and functional independence (RR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8). In post hoc analysis, pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥6 versus <6 predicted a favorable outcome (adjusted RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: pc-ASPECTS on CT angiography source images independently predicted death and functional independence at 1 month in the CT angiography subgroup of patients in the BASICS registry.

Calculation of correction factors for ionization chamber measurements with small fields in low-density media.

The quantity of interest for high-energy photon beam therapy recommended by most dosimetric protocols is the absorbed dose to water. Thus, ionization chambers are calibrated in absorbed dose to water, which is the same quantity as what is calculated by most treatment planning systems (TPS). However, when measurements are performed in a low-density medium, the presence of the ionization chamber generates a perturbation at the level of the secondary particle range. Therefore, the measured quantity is close to the absorbed dose to a volume of water equivalent to the chamber volume. This quantity is not equivalent to the dose calculated by a TPS, which is the absorbed dose to an infinitesimally small volume of water. This phenomenon can lead to an overestimation of the absorbed dose measured with an ionization chamber of up to 40% in extreme cases. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate correction factors based on the Monte Carlo simulations. These correction factors are obtained by the ratio of the absorbed dose to water in a low-density medium □D(w,Q,V1)(low) averaged over a scoring volume V₁ for a geometry where V₁ is filled with the low-density medium and the absorbed dose to water □D(w,QV2)(low) averaged over a volume V₂ for a geometry where V₂ is filled with water. In the Monte Carlo simulations, □D(w,QV2)(low) is obtained by replacing the volume of the ionization chamber by an equivalent volume of water, according to the definition of the absorbed dose to water. The method is validated in two different configurations which allowed us to study the behavior of this correction factor as a function of depth in phantom, photon beam energy, phantom density and field size.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

High-density electric source imaging (esi) in focal epilepsy: a prospective study of 150 operated patients

Purpose: EEG is mandatory in the diagnosis of the epilepsy syndrome. However, its potential as imaging tool is still under estimated. In the present study, we aim to determine the prerequisites of maximal benefit of electric source imaging (ESI) to localize the irritative zone in patients with focal epilepsy. Methods: One hundred fifty patients suffering from focal epilepsy and with minimum 1 year postoperative follow-up were studied prospectively and blinded to the underlying diagnosis. We evaluated the influence of two important factors on sensitivity and specificity of ESI: the number of electrodes (low resolution, LR-ESI: <30 versus high resolution, HR-ESI: 128-256 electrodes), and the use of individual MRI (i-MRI) versus template MRI (t-MRI) as the head model. Findings: ESI had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 87% when HR-ESI with i-MRI was used. Using LR-ESI, sensitivity decreased to 68%, or even 57% when only t-MRI was available. The sensitivity of HR-ESI/i-MRI compared favorably with those of MRI (76%), PET (69%) and ictal/interictal SPECT (64%). Interpretation: This study on a large patient group shows excellent sensitivity and specificity of ESI if 128 EEG channels or more are used for ESI and if the results are coregistered to the patient's individual MRI. Localization precision is as high as or even higher than established brain imagery techniques. HR-ESI appears to be a valuable additional imaging tool, given that larger electrode arrays are easily and rapidly applied with modern EEG equipment and that structural MRI is nearly always available for these patients.

Effects of dietary protein type on oxidized cholesterol-induced alteration in age-related modulation of lipid metabolism and indices of immune function in rats.

Exogenous oxidized cholesterol disturbs both lipid metabolism and immune functions. Therefore, it may perturb these modulations with ageing. Effects of the dietary protein type on oxidized cholesterol-induced modulations of age-related changes in lipid metabolism and immune function was examined using differently aged (4 weeks versus 8 months) male Sprague-Dawley rats when casein, soybean protein or milk whey protein isolate (WPI) was the dietary protein source, respectively. The rats were given one of the three proteins in diet containing 0.2% oxidized cholesterols mixture. Soybean protein, as compared with the other two proteins, significantly lowered both the serum thiobarbituric acid reactive substances value and cholesterol, whereas it elevated the ratio of high density lipoprotein-cholesterol/cholesterol in young rats, but not in adult. Moreover, soybean protein, but not casein and WPI, suppressed the elevation of Delta6 desaturation indices of phospholipids in both liver and spleen, particularly in young. On the other hand, WPI, compared to the other two proteins, inhibited the leukotriene B4 production of spleen, irrespective of age. Soybean protein reduced the ratio of CD4(+)/CD8(+) T-cells in splenic lymphocytes. Therefore, the levels of immunoglobulin (Ig)A, IgE and IgG in serum were lowered in rats given soybean protein in both age groups except for IgA in adult, although these observations were not shown in rats given other proteins. Thus, various perturbations of lipid metabolism and immune function caused by oxidized cholesterol were modified depending on the type of dietary protein. The moderation by soybean protein on the change of lipid metabolism seems to be susceptible in young rats whose homeostatic ability is immature. These observations may be exerted through both the promotion of oxidized cholesterol excretion to feces and the change of hormonal release, while WPI may suppress the disturbance of immune function by oxidized cholesterol in both ages. This alleviation may be associated with a large amount of lactoglobulin in WPI. These results thus showed a possibility that oxidized cholesterol-induced perturbations of age-related changes of lipid metabolism and immune function can be moderated by both the selection and combination of dietary protein.

Valeur ajoutée de la supervision du médecin-assistant par un médecin de famille dans une permanence [Added value of family practitioners' supervision of junior doctors in a walk-in clinic].

The pending workforce crisis in family medicine has triggered various initiatives. This article describes the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic, a project of the Institute of General Medicine University of Lausanne. The working conditions in this clinic are close to that of a family practice. Doctors in training are supervised by family doctors who work part-time in the clinic. The objective is to improve training in the various fields of family medicine, from technical skills (improving optimal use of diagnostic tools), to integrating patients' requests in a more global patient-centered approach. This new educational model allows doctors in training to benefit from the specific approaches of different trainers. It will contribute to promoting quality family medicine in the future.

Diagnostic value of soluble CD14 subtype (sCD14-ST) presepsin for the postmortem diagnosis of sepsis-related fatalities.

The first aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic performance of presepsin (sCD14-ST) in postmortem serum from femoral blood compared to procalcitonin (PCT) to detect sepsis-related fatalities. The second aim was to compare sCD14-ST levels found in postmortem serum to the values in pericardial fluid to investigate the usefulness of the latter as an alternative biological fluid. Two study groups were formed, a sepsis-related fatalities group and a control group. Radiology (unenhanced CT scans and postmortem angiographies), autopsies, histology, neuropathology, and toxicology as well as other postmortem biochemistry investigations were performed in all cases. Microbiological investigations on right cardiac blood were carried out exclusively in septic cases. The results of this study indicated that postmortem serum PCT and sCD14-ST levels, individually considered, allowed septic cases to be identified. Even though increases in both PCT and sCD14-ST concentrations were observed in the control cases, coherent PCT and sCD14-ST results in cases with suspected sepsis allowed the diagnosis to be confirmed. Conversely, no relevant correlation was identified between postmortem serum and pericardial fluid sCD14-ST levels in either the septic or control groups.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital: predictive value of patient and process characteristics.

To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence. Alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43%for treatment adherence and 28%for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score &lt; 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow to identify subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

Potential value of biliary CEA assay in early detection of colorectal adenocarcinoma liver metastases.

Elevation of the biliary CEA level in patients with liver metastases from colorectal carcinoma has been reported. The aim of this study is to determine the potential value of biliary CEA assay in the early detection of liver metastases. Biliary and serum CEA levels were determined in patients operated on for a colorectal cancer and in control groups. Among 13 patients with liver metastases from colorectal carcinomas, biliary CEA levels were markedly elevated (> 40 ng/ml) in nine, moderately elevated (5-40 ng/ml) in two and normal (arbitrarily defined as < 5 ng/ml) in two. Of 28 patients with primary colorectal carcinoma without detectable hepatic secondaries, three had marked CEA elevation in the bile, 10 had moderate CEA elevation and 15 had normal levels. Among nine patients with non-malignant hepatobiliary pathology, there was one marked biliary CEA elevation, one moderate elevation and seven normal levels. None of the 13 individuals with no identified hepatobiliary pathology had elevated biliary CEA levels. The follow-up of patients with a primary colorectal tumour, no evidence of hepatic secondaries and a biliary CEA elevation is of particular interest. If subsequent appearance of liver metastases is found in such cases, intra-operative biliary CEA assay could be considered a valuable diagnostic test. Further studies will then have to prove the possible benefit of a specific treatment for this group of patients.

Uitlité clinique du lavage bronchoalvéolaire [Clinical value of bronchoalveolar lavage].

Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) is a minimally invasive procedure used to characterize the status of the alveolar space. Standardization of the procedure and the analysis of samples taken is essential for their proper interpretation. In nonresolving or ventilator-associated pneumonia, BAL contributes to the detection of resistant pathogens and noninfectious etiologies. In immunocompromised hosts with radiological infiltrates, BAL should be performed early during work-up since outcome is significantly modified in this population group. In cases of interstitial lung disease, BAL can exclude infectious or neoplastic causes. Associated with a clinical and radiological evaluation, it provides valuables additional diagnostic information.