The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Endothelial cell integrins and COX-2: mediators and therapeutic targets of tumor angiogenesis.

Vascular integrins are essential regulators and mediators of physiological and pathological angiogenesis, including tumor angiogenesis. Integrins provide the physical interaction with the extracellular matrix (ECM) necessary for cell adhesion, migration and positioning, and induce signaling events essential for cell survival, proliferation and differentiation. Integrins preferentially expressed on neovascular endothelial cells, such as alphaVbeta3 and alpha5beta1, are considered as relevant targets for anti-angiogenic therapies. Anti-integrin antibodies and small molecular integrin inhibitors suppress angiogenesis and tumor progression in many animal models, and are currently tested in clinical trials as anti-angiogenic agents. Cyclooxygense-2 (COX-2), a key enzyme in the synthesis of prostaglandins and thromboxans, is highly up-regulated in tumor cells, stromal cells and angiogenic endothelial cells during tumor progression. Recent experiments have demonstrated that COX-2 promotes tumor angiogenesis. Chronic intake of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and COX-2 inhibitors significantly reduces the risk of cancer development, and this effect may be due, at least in part, to the inhibition of tumor angiogenesis. Endothelial cell COX-2 promotes integrin alphaVbeta3-mediated endothelial cell adhesion, spreading, migration and angiogenesis through the prostaglandin-cAMP-PKA-dependent activation of the small GTPase Rac. In this article, we review the role of integrins and COX-2 in angiogenesis, their cross talk, and discuss implications relevant to their targeting to suppress tumor angiogenesis.

La régression tumorale n'est pas un facteur de risque d'atteinte du ganglion sentinelle dans les mélanomes fins (indice de Breslow < or = 1 mm) [Tumour regression is not predictive for higher risk of sentinel node involvement in thin melanomas (Breslow thickness < or = 1 mm)]

Background: Thin melanomas (Breslow thickness <= 1 mm) are considered highly curable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between histological tumour regression and sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in thin melanomas. Patients and methods: This was a retrospective single-centre study of 34 patients with thin melanomas undergoing SLN biopsy between April 1998 and January 2005. Results: The study included 14 women and 20 men of mean age 56.3 years. Melanomas were located on the neck (n = 3), soles (n = 4), trunk (n = 13) and extremities (n = 14). Pathological examination showed 25 SSM, four acral lentiginous melanomas, three in situ melanomas, one nodular melanoma and one unclassified melanoma with a mean Breslow thickness of 0.57 mm. Histological tumour regression was observed in 26 over 34 cases and ulceration was found in one case. Clark levels were as follows: I (n = 3), II (n = 20), III (n = 9), IV (n = 2). Growth phase was available in 15 cases (seven radial and eight vertical). Mitotic rates, available in 24 cases, were: 0 (n = 9), 1 (n = 11), 2 (n = 2), 3 (n = 1), 6 (n = 1). One patient with histological tumour regression (2.9% of cases and 3.8% of cases with regressing tumours) had a metastatic SLN. One patient negative for SLN had a lung relapse and died of the disease. Mean follow-up was 26.2 months. Conclusion: The results of the present study and the analysis of the literature show that histological regression of the primary tumour does not seem predictive of higher risk of SLN involvement in thin melanomas. This suggests that screening for SLN is not indicated in thin melanomas, even those with histological regression.

Melan-A-specific cytotoxic T cells are associated with tumor regression and autoimmunity following treatment with anti-CTLA-4.

PURPOSE: Ipilimumab is a monoclonal antibody that blocks the immune-inhibitory interaction between CTL antigen 4 (CTLA-4) and its ligands on T cells. Clinical trials in cancer patients with ipilimumab have shown promising antitumor activity, particularly in patients with advanced melanoma. Often, tumor regressions in these patients are correlated with immune-related side effects such as dermatitis, enterocolitis, and hypophysitis. Although these reactions are believed to be immune-mediated, the antigenic targets for the cellular or humoral immune response are not known. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We enrolled patients with advanced melanoma in a phase II study with ipilimumab. One of these patients experienced a complete remission of his tumor. The specificity and functional properties of CD8-positive T cells in his peripheral blood, in regressing tumor tissue, and at the site of an immune-mediated skin rash were investigated. RESULTS: Regressing tumor tissue was infiltrated with CD8-positive T cells, a high proportion of which were specific for Melan-A. The skin rash was similarly infiltrated with Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells, and a dramatic (>30-fold) increase in Melan-A-specific CD8-positive T cells was apparent in peripheral blood. These cells had an effector phenotype and lysed Melan-A-expressing tumor cells. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that Melan-A may be a major target for both the autoimmune and antitumor reactions in patients treated with anti-CTLA-4, and describe for the first time the antigen specificity of CD8-positive T cells that mediate tumor rejection in a patient undergoing treatment with an anti-CTLA-4 antibody. These findings may allow a better integration of ipilimumab into other forms of immunotherapy.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Latitude gradients in melanoma incidence and mortality in the non-Maori population of New Zealand

The variation with latitude of incidence and mortality for cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in the non-Maori population of New Zealand was assessed. For those aged 20 to 74 years, the effects of age, time period, birth-cohort, gender, and region (latitude), and some interactions between them were evaluated by log-linear regression methods. Increasing age-standardized incidence and mortality rates with increasing proximity to the equator were found for men and women. These latitude gradients were greater for males than females. The relative risk of melanoma in the most southern part of New Zealand (latitude 44 degrees S) compared with the most northern region (latitude 36 degrees S) was 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.60-0.67) for incidence and 0.76 (CI = 0.68-0.86) for mortality, both genders combined. The mean percentage change in CMM rates per degree of latitude for males was greater than those reported in other published studies. Differences between men and women in melanoma risk with latitude suggest that regional sun-behavior patterns or other risk factors may contribute to the latitude gradient observed.

Robust regression in biological assay: application to the evaluation of alternative experimental techniques.

Robust Huber type regression and testing of linear hypotheses are adapted to statistical analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays. They are applied in the evaluation of results of several experiments carried out in order to compare and validate alternatives to animal experimentation based on embryo and cell cultures. Computational procedures necessary for the application of robust methods of analysis used the conversational statistical package ROBSYS. Special commands for the analysis of parallel line and slope ratio assays have been added to ROBSYS.

The effect of COX-2 inhibitors on the formation of heterotopic bone in a rat model : O1323

Aims: 1) to create a new and reproducible animal model to produce heterotopic ossification (HO) 2) to be able to exactly quantify the amount of HO using a microCT scan and 3) to prove the hypothesis that COX-2 inhibitors are efficacious in the prevention of HO. Methods: We developed a IACUC-approved Lewis rat model, in which the ventral side of the right femur was scraped to mechanically disrupt the periosteum. By clamping the vastus intermedius ischemic injury to the muscle was produced to enhance HO. Finally homologous bone marrow from a donor rat was placed on the anterior surface of the femur. Half of the study group (8 rats) received chow mixed with a COX-2 inhibitor, while the other half received normal chow. After 6 weeks the animals were sacrificed, the femurs removed and imaged by microCT. Grading of HO was based on the thickness of ectopic bone as evaluated in a blinded fashion by 3 independent observers. Results: All animals developed bilateral HO. Rats treated with COX-2 inhibitors developed significantly less ectopic bone than the control group rats. Conclusions: The results suggest that we have created a very reliable, reproducible model to form ectopic bone in rats. Using the microCT we can precisely quantify the amount of HO. We have been able to show that COX-2 inhibitors significantly decrease the amount of HO formation and are thus a good alternative to non-specific NSAIDs with their potential serious side effects on the gastrointestinal tract and on hemo-stastis.

Influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival following cardiac surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In our institutional database we retrospectively evaluated medical records of 4732 adult patients who received open-heart surgery from January 1995 through December 2005. The predictive factors for DSWI were determined using logistic regression analysis. Then, each patient with deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) was matched with 2 controls without DSWI, according to the risk factors identified previously. After checking balance resulting from matching, short-term mortality was compared between groups using a paired test, and long-term survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Overall, 4732 records were analyzed. The mean age of the investigated population was 69.3±12.8 years. DSWI occurred in 74 (1.56%) patients. Significant independent predictive factors for deep sternal infections were active smoking (OR 2.19, CI95 1.35-3.53, p=0.001), obesity (OR 1.96, CI95 1.20-3.21, p=0.007), and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR 2.09, CI95 1.05-10.06, p=0.016). Mean follow-up in the matched set was 125 months, IQR 99-162. After matching, in-hospital mortality was higher in the DSWI group (8.1% vs. 2.7% p=0.03), but DSWI was not an independent predictor of long-term survival (adjusted HR 1.5, CI95 0.7-3.2, p=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: The results presented in this report clearly show that post-sternotomy deep wound infection does not influence long-term survival in an adult general cardio-surgical patient population.

The prognostic value of health-related quality-of-life data in predicting survival in glioblastoma cancer patients: results from an international randomised phase III EORTC Brain Tumour and Radiation Oncology Groups, and NCIC Clinical Trials Group study.

This is one of the few studies that have explored the value of baseline symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in predicting survival in brain cancer patients. Baseline HRQOL scores (from the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the Brain Cancer Module (BN 20)) were examined in 490 newly diagnosed glioblastoma cancer patients for the relationship with overall survival by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Refined techniques as the bootstrap re-sampling procedure and the computation of C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients were used to try and validate the model. Classical analysis controlled for major clinical prognostic factors selected cognitive functioning (P=0.0001), global health status (P=0.0055) and social functioning (P<0.0001) as statistically significant prognostic factors of survival. However, several issues question the validity of these findings. C-indexes and R(2)-coefficients, which are measures of the predictive ability of the models, did not exhibit major improvements when adding selected or all HRQOL scores to clinical factors. While classical techniques lead to positive results, more refined analyses suggest that baseline HRQOL scores add relatively little to clinical factors to predict survival. These results may have implications for future use of HRQOL as a prognostic factor in cancer patients.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Parenteral is more efficient than mucosal immunization to induce regression of human papillomavirus-associated genital tumors.

Cervical cancer is a public health concern as it represents the second cause of cancer death in women worldwide. High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPV) are the etiologic agents, and HPV E6 and/or E7 oncogene-specific therapeutic vaccines are under development to treat HPV-related lesions in women. Whether the use of mucosal routes of immunization may be preferable for inducing cell-mediated immune responses able to eradicate genital tumors is still debated because of the uniqueness of the female genital mucosa (GM) and the limited experimentation. Here, we compared the protective activity resulting from immunization of mice via intranasal (i.n.), intravaginal (IVAG) or subcutaneous (s.c.) routes with an adjuvanted HPV type 16 E7 polypeptide vaccine. Our data show that s.c. and i.n. immunizations elicited similar frequencies and avidity of TetE71CD81 and E7-specific Interferon-gamma-secreting cells in the GM, whereas slightly lower immune responses were induced by IVAG immunization. In a novel orthotopic murine model, both s.c. and i.n. immunizations allowed for complete long-term protection against genital E7-expressing tumor challenge. However, only s.c. immunization induced complete regression of already established genital tumors. This suggests that the higher E7-specific systemic response observed after s.c. immunization may contribute to the regression of growing genital tumors, whereas local immune responses may be sufficient to impede genital challenges. Thus, our data show that for an efficiently adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, parenteral vaccination route is superior to mucosal vaccination route for inducing regression of established genital tumors in a murine model of HPV-associated genital cancer.