Cancer risk in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: associations with immunodeficiency, smoking, and highly active antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have an increased risk for several cancers, but the influences of behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and intravenous drug use, and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on cancer risk are not clear. METHODS: Patient records were linked between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and Swiss cantonal cancer registries. Observed and expected numbers of incident cancers were assessed in 7304 persons infected with HIV followed for 28,836 person-years. Relative risks for cancer compared with those for the general population were determined by estimating cancer registry-, sex-, age-, and period-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). RESULTS: Highly elevated SIRs were confirmed in persons infected with HIV for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) (SIR = 192, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 170 to 217) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 76.4, 95% CI = 66.5 to 87.4). Statistically significantly elevated SIRs were also observed for anal cancer (SIR = 33.4, 95% CI = 10.5 to 78.6); Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 17.3, 95% CI = 10.2 to 27.4); cancers of the cervix (SIR = 8.0, 95% CI = 2.9 to 17.4); liver (SIR = 7.0, 95% CI = 2.2 to 16.5); lip, mouth, and pharynx (SIR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1 to 7.4); trachea, lung, and bronchus (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.7 to 5.4); and skin, nonmelanomatous (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.2 to 4.5). In HAART users, SIRs for KS (SIR = 25.3, 95% CI = 10.8 to 50.1) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 24.2, 95% CI = 15.0 to 37.1) were lower than those for nonusers (KS SIR = 239, 95% CI = 211 to 270; non-Hodgkin lymphoma SIR = 99.3, 95% CI = 85.8 to 114). Among HAART users, however, the SIR (although not absolute numbers) for Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 36.2, 95% CI = 16.4 to 68.9) was comparable to that for KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No clear impact of HAART on SIRs emerged for cervical cancer or non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. Cancers of the lung, lip, mouth, or pharynx were not observed among nonsmokers. CONCLUSION: In persons infected with HIV, HAART use may prevent most excess risk of KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but not that of Hodgkin lymphoma and other non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. No cancers of the lip, mouth, pharynx, or lung were observed in nonsmokers.

Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based CVD risk analysis.

Commentaire de: Gaziano TA, Young CR, Fitzmaurice G, Atwood S, Gaziano JM. Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based method for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: the NHANES I Follow-up Study cohort. Lancet. 2008;371(9616):923-31. PMID: 18342687

BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring: a mean to stratify cardiovascular risk.

OBJECTIVE: Current hypertension guidelines stress the importance to assess total cardiovascular risk but do not describe precisely how to use ambulatory blood pressures in the cardiovascular risk stratification. METHOD: We calculated here global cardiovascular risk according to 2003 European Society of Hypertension/European Society of Cardiology guidelines in 127 patients in whom daytime ambulatory blood pressures were recorded and carotid/femoral ultrasonography performed. RESULTS: The presence of ambulatory blood pressures >or =135/85 mmHg shifted cardiovascular risk to higher categories, as did the presence of hypercholesterolemia and, even more so, the presence of atherosclerotic plaques. CONCLUSION: Further studies are, however, needed to define the position of ambulatory blood pressures in the assessment of cardiovascular risk.

Risk of prostate, breast and colorectal cancer after skin cancer diagnosis.

Ultraviolet radiation is the major cause of skin cancer, but promotes vitamin D synthesis, and vitamin D has been inversely related to the risk of several common cancers including prostate, breast and colorectum. We therefore computed the incidence of prostate, breast and colorectal cancer following skin cancer using the datasets of the Swiss cancer Registries of Vaud and Neuchâtel. Between 1974 and 2005, 6,985 histologically confirmed squamous cell skin cancers, 21,046 basal cell carcinomas and 3,346 cutaneous malignant melanomas were registered, and followed up to the end of 2005 for the occurrence of second primary cancer of the prostate, breast and colorectum. Overall, 680 prostate cancers were observed versus 568.3 expected (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.20; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.29), 440 breast cancers were observed versus 371.5 expected (SIR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.08-1.30) and 535 colorectal cancers were observed versus 464.6 expected (SIR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.06-1.25). When basal cell, squamous cell and skin melanoma were considered separately, all the SIRs for prostate, breast and colorectal cancers were around or slightly above unity. Likewise, the results were consistent across strata of age at skin cancer diagnosis and location (head and neck versus others), and for male and female colorectal cancers. These findings, based on a population with a long tradition of systematic histologic examination of all surgically treated skin lesions, do not support the hypothesis that prostate, breast and colorectal cancer risk is decreased following skin cancer.

Perception et communication du risque: du diabète à la maladie cardiovasculaire [Risk perception and communication: from diabetes to cardiovascular diseases].

Evidence-based medicine has enabled to approach disease in a more rational and scientific way. Clinical research has identified behaviours and risk factors that could cause disease often "silent" at the beginning, such as diabetes. Despite the clear impact of these evidences on public health, it seems that the individual risk perception level remains weak. To mention as well, the health professionals very often have a different views, which makes it difficult to communicate the risk with patients. In this article we describe the principles of risk perception, the diabetes related risk perception concerning cardiovascular complications, and suggest some practical strategies and tools which could improve risk communication in the everyday practice.

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and copeptin for predicting survival in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia remains the most common nosocomial infection in the critically ill and contributes to significant morbidity. Eventual decisions regarding withdrawal or maximal therapy are demanding and rely on physicians' experience. Additional objective tools for risk assessment may improve medical judgement. Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, reflecting the individual degree of organ dysfunction, might qualify for survival prediction in ventilator-associated pneumonia. We investigated the predictive value of the SOFA score and copeptin in ventilator-associated pneumonia. METHODS: One hundred one patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia were prospectively assessed. Death within 28 days after ventilator-associated pneumonia onset was the primary end point. RESULTS: The SOFA score and the copeptin levels at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset were significantly elevated in nonsurvivors (P = .002 and P = .017, respectively). Both markers had different time courses in survivors and nonsurvivors (P < .001 and P = .006). Mean SOFA (average SOFA of 10 days after VAP onset) was superior in predicting 28-day survival as compared with SOFA and copeptin at ventilator-associated pneumonia onset (area under the curve, 0.90 vs 0.73 and 0.67, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serial-measured SOFA significantly exceeds those of single SOFA and copeptin measurements. Serial SOFA scores accurately predict outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Small dense lipoproteins, apolipoprotein B, and risk of coronary events in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: HIV infection and exposure to certain antiretroviral drugs is associated with dyslipidemia and increased risk for coronary events. Whether this risk is mediated by highly atherogenic lipoproteins is unclear. We investigated the association of highly atherogenic small dense low-density lipoproteins (LDLs) and apolipoprotein B and coronary events in HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to investigate the association of small dense LDL and apolipoprotein B and coronary events in 98 antiretroviral drug-treated patients with a first coronary event (19 fatal and 79 nonfatal coronary events with 53 definite and 15 possible myocardial infarctions, 11 angioplasties or bypasses) and 393 treated controls matched for age, gender, and smoking status. Lipids were measured by ultracentrifugation. RESULTS: In models including cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, central obesity, diabetes, and family history, there was an independent association between small dense LDL and coronary events [odds ratio (OR) for 1 mg/dL increase: 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00 to 1.11] and apolipoprotein B (OR for 10 mg/dL increase: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.32). When adding HIV and antiretroviral therapy-related variables, ORs were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.10) for small dense LDL and 1.13 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.30) for apolipoprotein B. In both models, blood pressure and HIV viral load was independently associated with the odds for coronary events. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy with elevate small dense LDL and apolipoprotein B are at increased risk for coronary events as are patients without sustained HIV suppression.

Bilan préopératoire pour la chirurgie cardio-vasculaire en urgence [Preoperative assessment in emergency cardiovascular surgery].

In the emergency situation, preoperative patient work-up for cardio-vascular surgery is quite different from the elective setting. We have analyzed a consecutive series of 5576 cases out of which 823 underwent emergency procedures (14.8%). The most frequent problems requiring emergent intervention were peripheral vascular (186 cases; 22.6% of the emergent procedure), followed by coronary artery disease (156 cases; 19.0%), thoracic aortic aneurysms (86 cases; 10.4%), abdominal aortic aneurysms (54 cases; 6.6%), congenital heart disease (36 cases: 4.4%), heart and heart lung transplantation (31 cases; 3.8%), problems with cardiac rythm (25 cases: 3.0%), and others (267 cases: 32.4%). Classification by proportion of urgent procedures with reference to elective operations shows a different picture. As a matter of fact transplantations were always emergency procedures (100%), whereas repair of aortic dissections type A and B was an emergency procedure in 81.5%. Emergency thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysm repair accounted for 30% and 20% respectively and the corresponding proportion for peripheral vascular surgery is 19%. However, emergency surgery for acute coronary ischemia, valvular and congenital heart disease accounted for somewhat less than 10% for each group of these pathologies. Systematic pre-operative diagnostic work-up is a recognized tool for procedure related risk assessment and superior management of diseases. However, hemodynamic instability and other time related events correlated with negative outcome, are the main driving forces for accelerated diagnostic pathways

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". METHODS: Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25-64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as USD per capita per year. RESULTS: 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%). Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (> or =140/90 mmHg or treatment) of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (> or =6.2 mmol/l); 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (<1.0 mmol/l); 9.3% for diabetes (fasting glucose > or =7.0 mmol/l); 17.5% for smoking; 25.1% for obesity (body mass index > or =30 kg/m2) and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to USD 45.6, i.e. 11.2 dollars for high blood pressure, 3.8 dollars for diabetes, and 30.6 dollars for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia). Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to 22.6 dollars. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

Risque thrombotique sous procréation médicalement assistée [Thrombotic risk in assisted reproductive technology].

Use of assisted reproductive technology (ART) is increasing in many developed countries. Arterial and venous thromboembolic complications are reported during ART with an incidence of 0.1%. The development of these events has been mainly ascribed to the presence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Precise mechanisms by which OHSS and exogenous hormonal stimulation used in ART induce thromboembolic events remain unclear. However, vascular endothelial growth factor secreted during OHSS, high estradiol concentrations, and blood hyperviscosity play a major role in inducing a prothrombotic state. Therefore, before planning an ART, individual thromboembolic risk should be assessed and thromboprophylaxis offered to high risk patients. Prophylaxis should be initiated in women who develop moderate-to-severe OHSS.

External irradiation with or without long-term androgen suppression for prostate cancer with high metastatic risk: 10-year results of an EORTC randomised study.

BACKGROUND: We did a randomised phase 3 trial assessing the benefit of addition of long-term androgen suppression with a luteinising-hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist to external irradiation in patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk. In this report, we present the 10-year results. METHODS: For this open-label randomised trial, eligible patients were younger than 80 years and had newly diagnosed histologically proven T1-2 prostatic adenocarcinoma with WHO histological grade 3 or T3-4 prostatic adenocarcinoma of any histological grade, and a WHO performance status of 0-2. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive radiotherapy alone or radiotherapy plus immediate androgen suppression. Treatment allocation was open label and used a minimisation algorithm with institution, clinical stage of the disease, results of pelvic-lymph-node dissection, and irradiation fields extension as minimisation factors. Patients were irradiated externally, once a day, 5 days a week, for 7 weeks to a total dose of 50 Gy to the whole pelvis, with an additional 20 Gy to the prostate and seminal vesicles. The LHRH agonist, goserelin acetate (3·6 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks), was started on the first day of irradiation and continued for 3 years; cyproterone acetate (50 mg orally three times a day) was given for 1 month starting a week before the first goserelin injection. The primary endpoint was clinical disease-free survival. Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00849082. FINDINGS: Between May 22, 1987, and Oct 31, 1995, 415 patients were randomly assigned to treatment groups and were included in the analysis (208 radiotherapy alone, 207 combined treatment). Median follow-up was 9·1 years (IQR 5·1-12·6). 10-year clinical disease-free survival was 22·7% (95% CI 16·3-29·7) in the radiotherapy-alone group and 47·7% (39·0-56·0) in the combined treatment group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·42, 95% CI 0·33-0·55, p<0·0001). 10-year overall survival was 39·8% (95% CI 31·9-47·5) in patients receiving radiotherapy alone and 58·1% (49·2-66·0) in those allocated combined treatment (HR 0·60, 95% CI 0·45-0·80, p=0·0004), and 10-year prostate-cancer mortality was 30·4% (95% CI 23·2-37·5) and 10·3% (5·1-15·4), respectively (HR 0·38, 95% CI 0·24-0·60, p<0·0001). No significant difference in cardiovascular mortality was noted between treatment groups both in patients who had cardiovascular problems at study entry (eight of 53 patients in the combined treatment group had a cardiovascular-related cause of death vs 11 of 63 in the radiotherapy group; p=0·60) and in those who did not (14 of 154 vs six of 145; p=0·25). Two fractures were reported in patients allocated combined treatment. INTERPRETATION: In patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk, immediate androgen suppression with an LHRH agonist given during and for 3 years after external irradiation improves 10-year disease-free and overall survival without increasing late cardiovascular toxicity.