Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

The meiosis-specific recombinase hDmc1 forms ring structures and interacts with hRad51.

Eukaryotic cells encode two homologs of Escherichia coli RecA protein, Rad51 and Dmc1, which are required for meiotic recombination. Rad51, like E.coli RecA, forms helical nucleoprotein filaments that promote joint molecule and heteroduplex DNA formation. Electron microscopy reveals that the human meiosis-specific recombinase Dmc1 forms ring structures that bind single-stranded (ss) and double-stranded (ds) DNA. The protein binds preferentially to ssDNA tails and gaps in duplex DNA. hDmc1-ssDNA complexes exhibit an irregular, often compacted structure, and promote strand-transfer reactions with homologous duplex DNA. hDmc1 binds duplex DNA with reduced affinity to form nucleoprotein complexes. In contrast to helical RecA/Rad51 filaments, however, Dmc1 filaments are composed of a linear array of stacked protein rings. Consistent with the requirement for two recombinases in meiotic recombination, hDmc1 interacts directly with hRad51.

Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality.

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.

Social Cognition is not Reducible to Theory of Mind. When Children use Deontic Rules to Predict Others' Behaviors

The objective of this paper is to discuss whether children have a capacity for deonticreasoning that is irreducible to mentalizing. The results of two experiments point tothe existence of such non-mentalistic understanding and prediction of the behaviourof others. In Study 1, young children (3- and 4-year-olds) were told different versionsof classic false-belief tasks, some of which were modified by the introduction of a ruleor a regularity. When the task (a standard change of location task) included a rule, theperformance of 3-year-olds, who fail traditional false-belief tasks, significantly improved.In Study 2, 3-year-olds proved to be able to infer a rule from a social situation and touse it in order to predict the behaviour of a character involved in a modified versionof the false-belief task. These studies suggest that rules play a central role in the socialcognition of young children and that deontic reasoning might not necessarily involvemind reading.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of Waldeyer's ring has distinct clinicopathologic features: a GELA study.

BACKGROUND: Diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs) arising in specific extranodal sites have peculiar clinicopathologic features. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analyzed a cohort of 187 primary Waldeyer's ring (WR) DLBCLs retrieved from GELA protocols using anthracyclin-based polychemotherapy. RESULTS: Most patients (92%) had stage I-II disease. A germinal center B-cell-like (GCB) immunophenotype was observed in 61%, and BCL2 expression in 55%, of WR DLBCLs. BCL2, BCL6, IRF4 and MYC breakpoints were observed in, respectively, 3 of 42 (7%), 9 of 36 (25%), 2 of 26 (8%) and 4 of 40 (10%) contributive cases. A variable follicular pattern was evidenced in 30 of 68 (44%) large biopsy specimens. The 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) and the overall survival (OS) of 153 WR DLBCL patients with survival information were 69.5% and 77.8%, respectively. The GCB immunophenotype correlated with a better OS (P = 0.0015), while BCL2 expression predicted a worse OS (P = 0.037), an effect overcome by the GCB/non-GCB classification. Compared with matched nodal DLBCLs, WR DLBCLs with no age-adjusted international prognostic index factor disclosed a better 5-year PFS rate (77.5% versus 70.7%; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: WR DLBCLs display distinct clinicopathologic features compared with conventional DLBCLs, with usual localized-stage disease, common follicular features and a high frequency of GCB immunophenotype contrasting with a low rate of BCL2 rearrangements. In addition, they seem to be associated with a better outcome than their nodal counterpart.

Ispol'zovanie metodov teorii vosstanovleniia v modeliakh optimal'nogo dobyvaniia pishchi [Restoration theory in models of optimal feeding behavior]

The method of stochastic dynamic programming is widely used in ecology of behavior, but has some imperfections because of use of temporal limits. The authors presented an alternative approach based on the methods of the theory of restoration. Suggested method uses cumulative energy reserves per time unit as a criterium, that leads to stationary cycles in the area of states. This approach allows to study the optimal feeding by analytic methods.

An unusual uterine tumour with signet ring cell features

Objective: Lymphomas with signet ring cell features are rare, as is uterine dissemination of lymphomas. We report an exceptional case of a uterine tumor combining these two characteristics. Method: A 61-year-old female was diagnosed in 2004 with localized nodal grade 2 follicular lymphoma (stage IA). She received local radiation therapy, experienced total remission, and did well until 2009 when a systematic CT scan evidenced a pelvic anterior-lateral mass. Total enlarged hysterectomy was performed. Results: The anterior uterine wall contained a 4.8-cm fish flesh well-delineated mass corresponding to a mostly diffuse and focally nodular proliferation of medium to large cells with extensive signet ring cell changes. Tumor cells were CD20-, CD10-, Bcl2-, and Bcl6-positive with a low proliferation rate (<10-15%); CD21 underlined a focal follicular architecture. The vacuoles were PAS-negative and did not stain for immunoglobulin; ultrastructural analysis revealed nonspecific degenerative vacuoles. No lymph nodes were identified isolated from the surgical specimen. The tumor was considered as a secondary localization of the systemic follicular lymphoma, though no signet ring cells were evidenced in the cervical lymph node biopsy (reviewed). Follow-up showed retroperitoneal tissue infiltration (PET-CT) and normal medullar biopsy. She recently started R-CHOP chemotherapy. Conclusion: This case illustrates both an unusual site of dissemination and challenging cytological characteristics in a follicular lymphoma. The signet ring cell changes challenged the adequate classification of this lymphoma as either a large B cell or a follicular B cell lymphoma.

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Off-pump transapical mitral valve-in-ring implantation.

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of off-pump transapical mitral valve-in-ring implantation and to test the performance of a custom-made self-expandable stent valve, in comparison with the standard SAPIEN valve. METHODS: Acute experiments were performed in five pigs. Animals (mean weight 58.4 ± 7.3 kg) underwent mitral valve annuloplasties under cardiopulmonary bypass using 26-mm rings (SJM?). Then, a 30-mm custom-made self-expandable stent valve or a 23-mm balloon-expandable transcatheter heart valve (Edwards SAPIEN XT?) was deployed within the annuloplasty rings through a transatrial access and under direct vision. Subsequently, the stent valves were inserted transapically under fluoroscopic guidance and off pump. RESULTS: The procedural success of transatrial and transapical mitral valve-in-ring procedures was 100% (10 of 10). Mean transatrial and transapical procedure time was 2.0 ± 1.1 and 22.0 ± 5.7 min, respectively. Haemodynamic status during transapical implantation remained stable, and differences in data collected before and after the stent-valve deployment were not statistically significant. Mean mitral annulus diameter and mean mitral orifice area in the group of self-expandable stent valves were 2.60 ± 0.02 cm and 4.16 ± 0.48 cm(2), respectively, whereas in the SAPIEN group they were 1.95 ± 0.18 cm and 2.26 ± 0.20 cm(2), respectively. Trace or mild regurgitation was detected only in the self-expandable stent-valve group. Mean gradients were 4.1 ± 4.5 mmHg across the self-expandable stent valves and 1.0 ± 0 mmHg across the SAPIEN valves. Postmortem examination confirmed adequate positioning of the self-expandable valves and the SAPIEN valves within the annuloplasty ring. CONCLUSIONS: Off-pump transapical mitral valve-in-ring implantation is safe and feasible. Transapical access may represent the ideal option for valve-in-ring procedures in cases of recurrent mitral regurgitation after mitral valve repair, in high-risk patients. Owing to the supra-annular profile of the valve components, our custom-made nitinol stent valve provides nearer to normal functional area than the SAPIEN valve.

Komik, Ernst und Mise en page. Zum Problem der Farblinien in Heinrich Wittenwilers "Der Ring"

Der Aufsatz nähert sich dem Interpretationsproblem des ,Ring', eines seit Forschungsbeginn ausserordentlich konträr diskutierten Textes, aus wissenschaftsanalytischer Perspektive. Er führt die Zersplitterung und die Extremisierung der Deutungsansätze, die die breite Forschung zu Wittenwilers Werk kennzeichnet, auf einen vergleichsweise simplen Befund zurück: die ungeklärte Frage nach dem Verhältnis von Komik und Didaktik und der Ernsthaftigkeit des lehrhaften Angebots im ,Ring'. Die so auf grundlegendster Ebene offen gebliebene Erfassung des Textes führt in einen interpretatorischen Leerraum, in dem die widersprüchlichsten, oft wissenschaftsideologisch begründeten Positionen Platz finden. Ihre Analyse zeigt, dass sie sich in wiederkehrende Gruppierungen ordnen. Als Schlüsselglied sowohl der Befunddaten als auch der konträren Vernetzungen von Befund und Deutung wird die wechselnd rote und grüne Initialenlinie der Münchner Handschrift identifiziert. Als im Prolog eingeführte Markierung von Ernst auf der einen und Komik auf der anderen Seite ist sie nicht nur visueller Ausdruck des Deutungsproblems des ,Ring', sondern sie hat es wegen der scheinbaren Unstimmigkeit ihrer Zuweisungen auch wesentlich bedingt. Der Aufsatz zeigt ihren bisher übersehenen Aufschluss für das Verständnis des Werks. Nimmt man die Linie als graphisches Verfahren ernst, stellt sie sich als strukturelle Markierung zum Auffinden von Text im diskontinuierlichen Zugriff dar - nicht aber, wie man sie bisher ausnahmslos verstand, als semantische Kommentierung eines laufenden, kontinuierlich zu lesenden Textes. Die strukturierende Funktion des Farbwechsels ist auf zwei Ebenen nachzuweisen: Auf Makroebene trennen seine Zuweisungen vorwiegend narrative und vorwiegend wissensvermittelnde Grosspartien des ,Ring' durch eine jeweilige Grundfarbe. Auf Mikroebene wird diese Grundfarbe durch die jeweils andere Farbe durchbrochen, um formale Einschnitte wie etwa Sprecherwechsel, Ortswechsel, Handlungsneueinsätze, Beginn und Ende eines eingeschalteten Binnentextes oder einer Sentenz anzuzeigen. Dem Benutzer der autornahen Handschrift sollte so in einem ersten Schritt (makrostrukturell) ermöglicht werden, gezielt auf gewünschte Stellen des Textes zuzugreifen und ihn in einem zweiten Schritt (mikrostrukturell) schneller zu erfassen. Nicht in seiner Umsetzung, sehr wohl aber in seiner Funktion steht dieses ungewöhnliche Layout zeitgenössischen Techniken der Buchgliederung durchaus nahe. Auch im Profil der Zusammenstellung seiner Binnentexte rückt der ,Ring' damit in die Nähe der im Spätmittelalter beliebten Sammelhandschriften mit Ziel einer Wissenssumme, die hier narrativ verbundenen wird. Es scheint, als möchte der ,Ring' in einem ungewöhnlichen Experiment beides sein: Kompilation und Werkganzes, Wissenssammlung und Erzählwerk - Texte und Text. Als Ergebnis einer Neuuntersuchung des Münchner codex unicus des ,Ring' weist der Beitrag schliesslich darauf hin, dass auch zahlreiche Markierungszeichen am Spaltenrand formale und strukturelle Texteinschnitte anzeigen und somit die gleiche Funktion haben wie der Farbwechsel auf Mikroebene. Ein kausaler, produktionstechnischer Zusammenhang zwischen diesen Zeichen und der Verteilung des Farbwechsels ist nicht auszuschliessen, zumal beide Verfahren etwa im letzten Fünftel des Textes zunehmend zusammenfallen. Möglicherweise war nur die makrostrukturelle Funktion des Farbwechsel ursprünglich indendiert und mit der Erläuterung im Prolog bezeichnet, während seine mikrostrukturelle Funktion erst Resultat des Abschreibprozesses ist.