81 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models


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BACKGROUND: Incarcerated hernias represent about 5-15 % of all operated hernias. Tension-free mesh is the preferred technique for elective surgery due to low recurrence rates. There is however currently no consensus on the use of mesh for the treatment of incarcerated hernias, especially in case of bowel resection. AIM: The aims of this study were (i) to report our current practice for the treatment of incarcerated hernias, (ii) to identify risk factors for postoperative complications, and (iii) to assess the safety of mesh placement in potentially infected surgical fields. METHODS: This retrospective study included 166 consecutive patients who underwent emergency surgery for incarcerated hernia between January 2007 and January 2012 in two university hospitals. Demographics, surgical details, and short-term outcome were collected. Univariate analysis was employed to identify risk factors for overall, infectious, and major complications. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (50.6 %) presented inguinal hernias, 43 femoral (25.9 %), 37 umbilical hernias (22.3 %), and 2 mixed hernias (1.2 %), respectively. Mesh was placed in 64 patients (38.5 %), including 5 patients with concomitant bowel resection. Overall morbidity occurred in 56 patients (32.7 %), and 8 patients (4.8 %) developed surgical site infections (SSI). Univariate risk factors for overall complications were ASA grade 3/4 (P = 0.03), diabetes (P = 0.05), cardiopathy (P = 0.001), aspirin use (P = 0.023), and bowel resection (P = 0.001) which was also the only identified risk factor for SSI (P = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, only bowel incarceration was associated with a higher rate of major morbidity (OR = 14.04; P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Morbidity after surgery for incarcerated hernia remains high and depends on comorbidities and surgical presentation. The use of mesh could become current practice even in case of bowel resection.

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Protective T cell responses againstpersistent viruses like Epstein-Barrvirus in healthy individuals are characterizedby a remarkable stability ofthe T cell receptor (TCR) clonotypicrepertoire, with highly preservedclonotype selection and persistenceover time. Here, we extended recentwork to the study of EBV-specificCD8 T cell responses in melanomapatients treated by short-term chemotherapyfor transient lymphodepletion,followed by adoptive cell transfer(ACT) and immune reconstitutionfor cancer therapy. After this treatment,we observed increased proportionsof virus-specific T cells in 3/5patients, accompanied by a more differentiatedphenotype (EMRA/CD28neg), compared to specific cells ofhealthy individuals. Yet, similarly tohealthy donors, clonotype selectionand composition of virus-specific Tcells varied along the pathway of celldifferentiation, with some clonotypesthat were selected with late differentiation,while others were not. Aftertreatment, we did not observe noveldominant clonotypes, likely related toabsence of EBV reactivation measuredas viral load levels by quantitativePCR in PBMCs and antibody levelsin plasma samples. Furthermore,public TCR BV signatures were frequentlyfound within T cell clonotypesthat dominated the repertoiresof patients, in line with those observedin healthy individuals. Ourfindings indicate that even in situationswhere the immune system isstrongly challenged such as followinglymphodepletion and homeostatic repopulation,cytotoxic T cells specificfor EBV remain strikingly stable interms of clonotype selection and com-position along T cell differentiation.We are currently characterizing theclonotype selection and gene expressionprofiles of single EBV-specificCD8 T lymphocytes sorted ex-vivo inone patient who underwent two cyclesof lymphodepletion with escaladingdoses of chemotherapy overone-year interval. Observations madefrom this setting will provide additionalinsight into the degree of stabilityof virus specific T cells, and changesin the expression levels of genesimportant for cytolytic function andlong-term survival of T cells. Thiswork is supported by the Swiss NationalCenter of Competence in Research(NCCR) Molecular Oncology,and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

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Several patient-related variables have already been investigated as predictors of change in psychodynamic psychotherapy. Defensive functioning is one of them. However, few studies have investigated adaptational processes, encompassing defence mechanisms and coping, from an integrative or comparative viewpoint. This study includes 32 patients, mainly diagnosed with adjustment disorder and undergoing time-limited psychodynamic psychotherapy lasting up to 40 sessions, and will focus on early change in defence and coping. Observer-rater methodology was applied to the transcripts of two sessions of the first part of the psychotherapeutic process. It is assumed that the contextual-relational variable of therapeutic alliance intervenes as moderator on change in adaptational processes. Results corroborated the hypothesis, but only for coping, whereas for defences, overall functioning remained stable over the first 20 sessions of psychotherapy. These results are discussed within the framework of disentangling processes underlying adaptation, i.e., related to issues on trait and state aspects, as well as the role of the therapeutic alliance.

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The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

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BACKGROUND: Calcineurin inhibitors (cyclosporine (CsA) and tacrolimus (Tcl)) and the anti-TNF-antibody infliximab (IFX) are established therapeutic options in steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis (UC). In acute severe UC failing steroids, a randomized trial showed an 85% short term response to CsA or IFX, with avoidance of colectomy. Comparative responses to the three drugs in outpatients with steroid-refractory UC are unknown. METHOD: Response to treatment in patients with steroid-refractory moderate to severe UC was retrospectively studied in three cohorts of patients: Cohort A (n=24) treated with oral Tcl (initially 0.05mg/kg twice daily, aiming for serum trough levels of 5-10 ng/mL); Cohort B (n=19) treated with intravenous CsA 2mg/kg/daily and then oral CsA 5mg/kg/daily; Cohort C. (n= 41) treated with IFX (5mg/kg intravenously at week 0, 2, 6 and then every 8 weeks). After successful rescue therapy with Tcl or CsA, thiopurine maintenance therapy was introduced. The endpoint was evaluation of clinical remission or response at week 6, on the basis of modified Truelove-Witts severity index (MTWSI). RESULTS: After 6 weeks, 42% (10/24) of patients treated with Tcl achieved remission (MTWSI score ≤4) compared to 47% (9/ 19) on CsA and 66% (27/41) of patients treated with IFX (Tcl & CsA vs IFX p=0.127). Clinical response (decrease of MTWSI score of more than 4 points) at week 6 was reached in 25% (6/24) patients on Tcl, compared to 11% (2/19) on CsA and 20% (8/41) given IFX (p=0.484). Subgroup analysis showed the highest rates of remission in those with moderate steroid-refractory UC treated with IFX: 29% (2/7) in Tcl group compared to 50% (2/4) in CsA group and 76 % (19/25) in IFX group (Tcl &CsA vs IFX p= 0.058) Patients with severe colitis showed similar rates of remission in all three groups: 47% (8/17) on Tcl, 47% (7/ 15) on CsA and 50% (8/16) on IFX (p= 0.700). Colectomy within 6 weeks occurred in 4% (1/24) after Tcl, 5% (1/19) after CsA and 0% (0/41) after IFX. Adverse effects in the first 6 weeks were observed in 13% (3/24) on Tcl, 26% (5/19) on CsA, and 10% (4/41) on IFX (p=0.224) CONCLUSION: No significant differences in response, remission, colectomy rate or adverse events between the three agents were found, although the study is too small for definitive conclusions. There are intriguing differences, with potentially greater response to IFX in moderate, steroid-refractory UC.

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Cardiac-resident stem/progenitor cells have been identified based on expression of stem cell-associated antigens. However, no single surface marker allows to identify a definite cardiac stem/progenitor cell entity. Hence, functional stem cell markers have been extensively searched for. In homeostatic systems, stem cells divide infrequently and therefore retain DNA labels such as 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine, which are diluted with division. We used this method to analyze long-term label-retaining cells in the mouse heart after 14 days of 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine administration. Labeled cells were detected using immunohistochemical and flow-cytometric methods after varying chasing periods up to 12 months. Using mathematical models, the observed label dilution could consistently be described in the context of a 2-population model, whereby a population of rapidly dividing cells accounted for an accelerated early decline, and a population of slowly dividing cells accounted for decelerated dilution on longer time scales. Label-retaining cells were preferentially localized in the atria and apical region and stained negative for markers of the major cell lineages present in the heart. Most cells with long-term label-retention expressed stem cell antigen-1 (Sca-1). Sca-1(+)CD31(-) cells formed cell aggregates in culture, out of which lineage-negative (Lin(-))Sca-1(+)CD31(-) cells emerged, which could be cultured for many passages. These cells formed cardiospheres and showed differentiation potential into mesenchymal cell lineages. When cultured in cardiomyogenic differentiation medium, they expressed cardiac-specific genes. In conclusion, recognition of slow-cycling cells provides functional evidence of stem/progenitor cells in the heart. Lin(-)Sca-1(+)CD31(-) cardiac-derived progenitors have a potential for differentiation into cardiomyogenic and mesenchymal cell lineages.

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The present study was designed to explore the thermogenic effect of thyroid hormone administration and the resulting changes in nitrogen homeostasis. Normal male volunteers (n = 7) received thyroxin during 6 weeks. The first 3-week period served to suppress endogenous thyroid secretion (180 micrograms T4/day). This dose was doubled for the next 3 weeks. Sleeping energy expenditure (respiratory chamber) and BMR (hood) were measured by indirect calorimetry, under standardized conditions. Sleeping heart rate was continuously recorded and urine was collected during this 12-hour period to assess nitrogen excretion. The changes in energy expenditure, heart rate and nitrogen balance were then related to the excess thyroxin administered. After 3 weeks of treatment, serum TSH level fell to 0.15 mU/L, indicating an almost complete inhibition of the pituitary-thyroid axis. During this phase of treatment there was an increase in sleeping EE and sleeping heart rate, which increased further by doubling the T4 dose (delta EE: +8.5 +/- 2.3%, delta heart rate +16.1 +/- 2.2%). The T4 dose, which is currently used as a substitutive dose, lead to a borderline hyperthyroid state, with an increase in EE and heart rate. Exogenous T4 administration provoked a significant increase in urinary nitrogen excretion averaging 40%. It is concluded that T4 provokes an important stimulation of EE, which is mostly mediated by an excess protein oxidation.

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OBJECTIVE: Studies investigating medication adherence in psychosis are limited by the need of a certain degree of medication adherence and the inclusion of mostly multiple-episode patients. By contrast, noninformed consent, epidemiological studies in first-episode psychosis (FEP) allow the assessment of an important subgroup of patients who persistently refuse antipsychotic medication and thereby never receive an adequate antipsychotic trial. The present study aims to assess the prevalence and predictors of such a "medication refusal" subgroup and its association with illness outcome. METHODS: The present file audit study assessed medication adherence in an epidemiological cohort of 605 FEP patients who were treated within the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre for up to 18 months. Medication adherence was categorized into full adherence, nonadherence, and persistent medication refusal. Predictors were analyzed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: During the 18-month treatment period, 204 patients (33.7%) were fully adherent, 287 (47.4%) displayed at least 1 phase of nonadherence, and 114 patients (18.8%) were persistent medication refusers. Poor premorbid functioning, comorbid substance use, and poor insight predicted both medication refusal and nonadherence; a forensic history and no previous contact to psychiatric care were specifically predictive of medication refusal. With respect to illness outcome, nonadherent patients were worse off when compared with fully adherent patients, and medication refusers were even worse off compared with nonadherent patients. CONCLUSIONS: Within a nonselected epidemiological FEP cohort, almost 20% of patients are persistent medication refusers. The found predictors may help to identify the individual risk of persistent medication refusal and may enable an early (preventive) treatment adaptation.

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After 13 days of weight maintenance diet (13,720 +/- 620 kJ/day, 40% fat, 15% protein, and 45% carbohydrate), five young men (71.3 +/- 7.1 kg, 181 +/- 8 cm; means +/- SD) were overfed for 9 days at 1.6 times their maintenance requirements (i.e., +8,010 kJ/day). Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure (24-h EE) and basal metabolic rate (BMR) were measured on three occasions, once after 10 days on the weight-maintenance diet and after 2 and 9 days of overfeeding. Physical activity was monitored throughout the study, body composition was measured by underwater weighing, and nitrogen balance was assessed for 3 days during the two experimental periods. Overfeeding caused an increase in body weight averaging 3.2 kg of which 56% was fat as measured by underwater weighing. After 9 days of overfeeding, BMR increased by 622 kJ/day, which could explain one-third of the increase in 24-h EE (2,038 kJ/day); the remainder was due to the thermic effect of food (which increased in proportion with excess energy intake) and the increased cost of physical activity, related to body weight gain. This study shows that approximately one-quarter of the excess energy intake was dissipated through an increase in EE, with 75% being stored in the body. Under our experimental conditions of mixed overfeeding in which body composition measurements were combined with those of energy balance, it was possible to account for all of the energy ingested in excess of maintenance requirements.

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Solid phase microextraction (SPME) has been widely used for many years in various applications, such as environmental and water samples, food and fragrance analysis, or biological fluids. The aim of this study was to suggest the SPME method as an alternative to conventional techniques used in the evaluation of worker exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX). Polymethylsiloxane-carboxen (PDMS/CAR) showed as the most effective stationary phase material for sorbing BTEX among other materials (polyacrylate, PDMS, PDMS/divinylbenzene, Carbowax/divinylbenzene). Various experimental conditions were studied to apply SPME to BTEX quantitation in field situations. The uptake rate of the selected fiber (75 μm PDMS/CAR) was determined for each analyte at various concentrations, relative humidities, and airflow velocities from static (calm air) to dynamic (>200 cm/s) conditions. The SPME method also was compared with the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health method 1501. Unlike the latter, the SPME approach fulfills the new requirement for the threshold limit value-short term exposure limit (TLV-STEL) of 2.5 ppm for benzene (8 mg/m3).

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BACKGROUND: PCSK9 (Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin Kexin type 9) is a circulating protein that promotes hypercholesterolemia by decreasing hepatic LDL receptor protein. Under non interventional conditions, its expression is driven by sterol response element binding protein 2 (SREBP2) and follows a diurnal rhythm synchronous with cholesterol synthesis. Plasma PCSK9 is associated to LDL-C and to a lesser extent plasma triglycerides and insulin resistance. We aimed to verify the effect on plasma PCSK9 concentrations of dietary interventions that affect these parameters. METHODS: We performed nutritional interventions in young healthy male volunteers and offspring of type 2 diabetic (OffT2D) patients that are more prone to develop insulin resistance, including: i) acute post-prandial hyperlipidemic challenge (n=10), ii) 4 days of high-fat (HF) or high-fat/high-protein (HFHP) (n=10), iii) 7 (HFruc1, n=16) or 6 (HFruc2, n=9) days of hypercaloric high-fructose diets. An acute oral fat load was also performed in two patients bearing the R104C-V114A loss-of-function (LOF) PCSK9 mutation. Plasma PCSK9 concentrations were measured by ELISA. For the HFruc1 study, intrahepatocellular (IHCL) and intramyocellular lipids were measured by 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Hepatic and whole-body insulin sensitivity was assessed with a two-step hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (0.3 and 1.0 mU.kg-1.min-1). FINDINGS: HF and HFHP short-term diets, as well as an acute hyperlipidemic oral load, did not significantly change PCSK9 concentrations. In addition, post-prandial plasma triglyceride excursion was not altered in two carriers of PCSK9 LOF mutation compared with non carriers. In contrast, hypercaloric 7-day HFruc1 diet increased plasma PCSK9 concentrations by 28% (p=0.05) in healthy volunteers and by 34% (p=0.001) in OffT2D patients. In another independent study, 6-day HFruc2 diet increased plasma PCSK9 levels by 93% (p<0.0001) in young healthy male volunteers. Spearman's correlations revealed that plasma PCSK9 concentrations upon 7-day HFruc1 diet were positively associated with plasma triglycerides (r=0.54, p=0.01) and IHCL (r=0.56, p=0.001), and inversely correlated with hepatic (r=0.54, p=0.014) and whole-body (r=-0.59, p=0.0065) insulin sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma PCSK9 concentrations vary minimally in response to a short term high-fat diet and they are not accompanied with changes in cholesterolemia upon high-fructose diet. Short-term high-fructose intake increased plasma PCSK9 levels, independent on cholesterol synthesis, suggesting a regulation independent of SREBP-2. Upon this diet, PCSK9 is associated with insulin resistance, hepatic steatosis and plasma triglycerides.

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AIMS: To evaluate short-term clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) using CE-mark approved devices in Switzerland. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Swiss TAVI registry is a national, prospective, multicentre, monitored cohort study evaluating clinical outcomes in consecutive patients undergoing TAVI at cardiovascular centres in Switzerland. From February 2011 to March 2013, a total of 697 patients underwent TAVI for native aortic valve stenosis (98.1%), degenerative aortic bioprosthesis (1.6%) or severe aortic regurgitation (0.3%). Patients were elderly (82.4±6 years), 52% were females, and the majority highly symptomatic (73.1% NYHA III/IV). Patients with severe aortic stenosis (mean gradient 44.8±17 mmHg, aortic valve area 0.7±0.3 cm²) were either deemed inoperable or at high risk for conventional surgery (STS 8.2%±7). The transfemoral access was the most frequently used (79.1%), followed by transapical (18.1%), direct aortic (1.7%) and subclavian access (1.1%). At 30 days, rates of all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular events and myocardial infarction were 4.8%, 3.3% and 0.4%, respectively. The most frequently observed adverse events were access-related complications (11.8%), permanent pacemaker implantation (20.5%) and bleeding complications (16.6%). The Swiss TAVI registry is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01368250). CONCLUSIONS: The Swiss TAVI registry is a national cohort study evaluating consecutive TAVI procedures in Switzerland. This first outcome report provides favourable short-term clinical outcomes in unselected TAVI patients.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of long-term immunosuppressive therapy in patients with recurrent idiopathic neuroretinitis. METHODS: A retrospective review of 30 patients with recurrent idiopathic neuroretinitis identified 7 who received ongoing immunosuppression with prednisone and/or azathioprine for whom adequate follow-up information was available. We calculated the number of attacks per unit of time for each patient before and after treatment to derive mean attack rates for the group. RESULTS: For the entire group, we found a rate of 0.58 attacks per year prior to the initiation of immunosuppressive treatment, which decreased to 0.16 attacks per year following immunosuppression. This represents a reduction in the attack rate of 0.41, or a 72% decrease in attack frequency. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests a possible role for long-term immunosuppressive treatment in patients with recurrent idiopathic neuroretinitis. A longer follow-up interval, more standardized treatment regimens, and additional outcome measures might reveal a greater benefit of treatment.

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Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.