Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Dynamics of case-fatalilty rates of recurrent thromboembolism and major bleeding in patients treated for venous thromboembolism.

In patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), assessment of the risk of fatal recurrent VTE and fatal bleeding during anticoagulation may help to guide intensity and duration of therapy. We aimed to provide estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) of recurrent VTE and major bleeding during anticoagulation in a 'real life' population, and to assess these outcomes according to the initial presentation of VTE and its etiology. The study included 41,826 patients with confirmed VTE from the RIETE registry who received different durations of anticoagulation (mean 7.8 ± 0.6 months). During 27,110 patient-years, the CFR was 12.1% (95% CI, 10.2-14.2) for recurrent VTE, and 19.7% (95% CI, 17.4-22.1) for major bleeding. During the first three months of anticoagulant therapy, the CFR of recurrent VTE was 16.1% (95% CI, 13.6-18.9), compared to 2.0% (95% CI, 0-4.2) beyond this period. The CFR of bleeding was 20.2% (95% CI, 17.5-23.1) during the first three months, compared to 18.2% (95% CI, 14.0-23.2) beyond this period. The CFR of recurrent VTE was higher in patients initially presenting with PE (18.5%; 95% CI, 15.3-22.1) than in those with DVT (6.3%; 95% CI, 4.5-8.6), and in patients with provoked VTE (16.3%; 95% CI, 13.6-19.4) than in those with unprovoked VTE (5.5%; 95% CI, 3.5-8.0). In conclusion, the CFR of recurrent VTE decreased over time during anticoagulation, while the CFR of major bleeding remained stable. The CFR of recurrent VTE was higher in patients initially presenting with PE and in those with provoked VTE.

Optimal growth strategies when mortality and production rates are size-dependent

Pontryagin's maximum principle from optimal control theory is used to find the optimal allocation of energy between growth and reproduction when lifespan may be finite and the trade-off between growth and reproduction is linear. Analyses of the optimal allocation problem to date have generally yielded bang-bang solutions, i.e. determinate growth: life-histories in which growth is followed by reproduction, with no intermediate phase of simultaneous reproduction and growth. Here we show that an intermediate strategy (indeterminate growth) can be selected for if the rates of production and mortality either both increase or both decrease with increasing body size, this arises as a singular solution to the problem. Our conclusion is that indeterminate growth is optimal in more cases than was previously realized. The relevance of our results to natural situations is discussed.

Cycle length of spermatogenesis in shrews (mammalia: soricidae) with high and low metabolic rates and different mating systems.

The aim of the present study was to establish and compare the durations of the seminiferous epithelium cycles of the common shrew Sorex araneus, which is characterized by a high metabolic rate and multiple paternity, and the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, which is characterized by a low metabolic rate and a monogamous mating system. Twelve S. araneus males and fifteen C. russula males were injected intraperitoneally with 5-bromodeoxyuridine, and the testes were collected. For cycle length determinations, we applied the classical method of estimation and linear regression as a new method. With regard to variance, and even with a relatively small sample size, the new method seems to be more precise. In addition, the regression method allows the inference of information for every animal tested, enabling comparisons of different factors with cycle lengths. Our results show that not only increased testis size leads to increased sperm production, but it also reduces the duration of spermatogenesis. The calculated cycle lengths were 8.35 days for S. araneus and 12.12 days for C. russula. The data obtained in the present study provide the basis for future investigations into the effects of metabolic rate and mating systems on the speed of spermatogenesis.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Ecological and historical drivers of diversification in the fly genus Chiastocheta Pokorny.

Coevolution is among the main forces shaping the biodiversity on Earth. In Eurasia, one of the best-known plant-insect interactions showing highly coevolved features involves the fly genus Chiastocheta and its host-plant Trollius. Although this system has been widely studied from an ecological point of view, the phylogenetic relationships and biogeographic history of the flies have remained little investigated. In this integrative study, we aim to test the monophyly of the five Chiastocheta eco-morphological groups, defined by Pellmyr in 1992, by inferring a mitochondrial phylogeny. We further apply a new approach to assess the effect of (i) different molecular substitution rates and (ii) phylogenetic uncertainty on the inference of the spatio-temporal evolution of the group. From a taxonomic point of view, we demonstrate that only two of Pellmyr's groups (rotundiventris and dentifera) are phylogenetically supported, the other species appearing para- or polyphyletic. We also identify the position of C. lophota, which was not included in previous surveys. From a spatio-temporal perspective, we show that the genus arose during the Pliocene in Europe. Our results also indicate that at least four large-scale dispersal events are required to explain the current distribution of Chiastocheta. Moreover, each dispersal to or from Asia is associated with a host-shift and seems to correspond to an increase in speciation rates. Finally, we highlight the correlation between diversification and climatic fluctuations, which indicate that the cycles of global cooling over the last million years had an influence on the radiation of the group.

Frequent accesses to totally implanted vascular ports in pediatric oncology patients are associated with higher infection rates.

PURPOSE: Totally implanted vascular (TIVA) ports are used in children for repeated blood samples or intravenous treatments. We have recently published a prospective evaluation of surgical incidents and early complications associated with these devices. This work is the final part of the same study, assessing late complications over a follow-up of 2 yrs. METHODS: From January 2006 to January 2008, children older than 1 yr of age with a diagnosis of solid or blood cell malignancy were included. Insertion technique and care of the device were standardized. Every manipulation was prospectively recorded by specialized nurses. Obstruction was documented clinically. When bacteremia was suspected, routine central and peripheral blood cultures were drawn. RESULTS: Forty-five consecutive patients were enrolled in the study. Mean age at the time of the procedure was 8.5 yrs. There was no catheter-related infection within the first 4 weeks post-surgery. No device had to be removed because of infection or obstruction during follow-up. Frequent accesses to the port (=3 per day over a 10-day period) were associated with an 8-fold risk of infection. CONCLUSION: Insertion and use of TIVA devices were frequently associated with complications. No device had to be removed because of infection or obstruction over the follow-up period, although no prophylactic antibiotic agent was used. Restrictive use of antibiotics may prevent opportunistic infection. Frequent access to the device was significantly associated with line infection (odds ratio=8.43). No risk factor was identified for obstruction which occurred at a rate of 5.3 per 10,000 accesses.

Contemporary approach to neurologic prognostication of coma after cardiac arrest.

Coma after cardiac arrest (CA) is an important cause of admission to the ICU. Prognosis of post-CA coma has significantly improved over the past decade, particularly because of aggressive postresuscitation care and the use of therapeutic targeted temperature management (TTM). TTM and sedatives used to maintain controlled cooling might delay neurologic reflexes and reduce the accuracy of clinical examination. In the early ICU phase, patients' good recovery may often be indistinguishable (based on neurologic examination alone) from patients who eventually will have a poor prognosis. Prognostication of post-CA coma, therefore, has evolved toward a multimodal approach that combines neurologic examination with EEG and evoked potentials. Blood biomarkers (eg, neuron-specific enolase [NSE] and soluble 100-β protein) are useful complements for coma prognostication; however, results vary among commercial laboratory assays, and applying one single cutoff level (eg, > 33 μg/L for NSE) for poor prognostication is not recommended. Neuroimaging, mainly diffusion MRI, is emerging as a promising tool for prognostication, but its precise role needs further study before it can be widely used. This multimodal approach might reduce false-positive rates of poor prognosis, thereby providing optimal prognostication of comatose CA survivors. The aim of this review is to summarize studies and the principal tools presently available for outcome prediction and to describe a practical approach to the multimodal prognostication of coma after CA, with a particular focus on neuromonitoring tools. We also propose an algorithm for the optimal use of such multimodal tools during the early ICU phase of post-CA coma.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures.

BACKGROUND: Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited. METHODS: First, factors associated with a switch to RAL were identified with a logistic regression including patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a history of 3 class failure (n = 423). Second, predictors for virologic outcome were identified in an intent-to-treat analysis including all patients who received RAL. Last observation carried forward imputation was used to determine week 24 response rate (HIV-1 RNA >or= 50 copies/mL). RESULTS: The predominant factor associated with a switch to RAL in patients with suppressed baseline RNA was a regimen containing enfuvirtide [odds ratio 41.9 (95% confidence interval: 11.6-151.6)]. Efficacy analysis showed an overall response rate of 80.9% (152/188), whereas 71.8% (84/117) and 95.8% (68/71) showed viral suppression when stratified for detectable and undetectable RNA at baseline, respectively. Overall CD4 cell counts increased significantly by 42 cells/microL (P < 0.001). Characteristics of failures were a genotypic sensitivity score of the background regimen <or=1, very low RAL plasma concentrations, poor adherence, and high viral load at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression rates in our routine clinical care setting were promising and comparable with data from previously published randomized-controlled trials.

Trace element supplementation modulates pulmonary infection rates after major burns: a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Infections remain the leading cause of death after major burns. Trace elements are involved in immunity and burn patients suffer acute trace element depletion after injury. In a previous nonrandomized study, trace element supplementation was associated with increased leukocyte counts and shortened hospital stays. This randomized, placebo-controlled trial studied clinical and immune effects of trace element supplements. Twenty patients, aged 40 +/- 16 y (mean +/- SD), burned on 48 +/- 17% of their body surfaces, were studied for 30 d after injury. They consumed either standard trace element intakes plus supplements (40.4 micromol Cu, 2.9 micromol Se, and 406 micromol Zn; group TE) or standard trace element intakes plus placebo (20 micromol Cu, 0.4 micromol Se, and 100 micromol Zn; group C) for 8 d. Demographic data were similar for both groups. Mean plasma copper and zinc concentrations were below normal until days 20 and 15, respectively (NS). Plasma selenium remained normal for group TE but decreased for group C (P < 0.05 on days 1 and 5). Total leukocyte counts tended to be higher in group TE because of higher neutrophil counts. Proliferation to mitogens was depressed compared with healthy control subjects (NS). The number of infections per patient was significantly (P < 0.05) lower in group TE (1.9 +/- 0.9) than in group C (3.1 +/- 1.1) because of fewer pulmonary infections. Early trace element supplementation appears beneficial after major burns; it was associated with a significant decrease in the number of bronchopneumonia infections and with a shorter hospital stay when data were normalized for burn size.

Fracture rates of IPS Empress all-ceramic crowns: a systematic review.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical fracture rate of crowns fabricated with the pressable, leucite-reinforced ceramic IPS Empress, and relate the results to the type of tooth restored. Materials and Methods: The database SCOPUS was searched for clinical studies involving full-coverage crowns made of IPS Empress. To assess the fracture rate of the crowns in relation to the type of restored tooth and study, Poisson regression analysis was used. Results: Seven clinical studies were identified involving 1,487 adhesively luted crowns (mean observation time: 4.5 +/- 1.7 years) and 81 crowns cemented with zinc-phosphate cement (mean observation time: 1.6 +/- 0.8 years). Fifty-seven of the adhesively luted crowns fractured (3.8%). The majority of fractures (62%) occurred between the third and sixth year after placement. There was no significant influence regarding the test center on fracture rate, but the restored tooth type played a significant role. The hazard rate (per year) for crowns was estimated to be 5 in every 1,000 crowns for incisors, 7 in every 1,000 crowns for premolars, 12 in every 1,000 crowns for canines, and 16 in every 1,000 crowns for molars. One molar crown in the zinc-phosphate group fractured after 1.2 years. Conclusion: Adhesively luted IPS Empress crowns showed a low fracture rate for incisors and premolars and a somewhat higher rate for molars and canines. The sample size of the conventionally luted crowns was too small and the observation period too short to draw meaningful conclusions. Int J Prosthodont 2010;23:129-133.

Reproducibility of Fatmax and Fat Oxidation Rates during Exercise in Recreationally Trained Males.

Aerobic exercise training performed at the intensity eliciting maximal fat oxidation (Fatmax) has been shown to improve the metabolic profile of obese patients. However, limited information is available on the reproducibility of Fatmax and related physiological measures. The aim of this study was to assess the intra-individual variability of: a) Fatmax measurements determined using three different data analysis approaches and b) fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates at rest and at each stage of an individualized graded test. Fifteen healthy males [body mass index 23.1±0.6 kg/m2, maximal oxygen consumption ([Formula: see text]) 52.0±2.0 ml/kg/min] completed a maximal test and two identical submaximal incremental tests on ergocycle (30-min rest followed by 5-min stages with increments of 7.5% of the maximal power output). Fat and carbohydrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. Fatmax was determined with three approaches: the sine model (SIN), measured values (MV) and 3rd polynomial curve (P3). Intra-individual coefficients of variation (CVs) and limits of agreement were calculated. CV for Fatmax determined with SIN was 16.4% and tended to be lower than with P3 and MV (18.6% and 20.8%, respectively). Limits of agreement for Fatmax were -2±27% of [Formula: see text] with SIN, -4±32 with P3 and -4±28 with MV. CVs of oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide production and respiratory exchange rate were <10% at rest and <5% during exercise. Conversely, CVs of fat oxidation rates (20% at rest and 24-49% during exercise) and carbohydrate oxidation rates (33.5% at rest, 8.5-12.9% during exercise) were higher. The intra-individual variability of Fatmax and fat oxidation rates was high (CV>15%), regardless of the data analysis approach employed. Further research on the determinants of the variability of Fatmax and fat oxidation rates is required.