Predicting richness and composition in mountain insect communities at high resolution: a new test of the SESAM framework

Aim The aim of this study was to test different modelling approaches, including a new framework, for predicting the spatial distribution of richness and composition of two insect groups. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We compared two community modelling approaches: the classical method of stacking binary prediction obtained fromindividual species distribution models (binary stacked species distribution models, bS-SDMs), and various implementations of a recent framework (spatially explicit species assemblage modelling, SESAM) based on four steps that integrate the different drivers of the assembly process in a unique modelling procedure. We used: (1) five methods to create bS-SDM predictions; (2) two approaches for predicting species richness, by summing individual SDM probabilities or by modelling the number of species (i.e. richness) directly; and (3) five different biotic rules based either on ranking probabilities from SDMs or on community co-occurrence patterns. Combining these various options resulted in 47 implementations for each taxon. Results Species richness of the two taxonomic groups was predicted with good accuracy overall, and in most cases bS-SDM did not produce a biased prediction exceeding the actual number of species in each unit. In the prediction of community composition bS-SDM often also yielded the best evaluation score. In the case of poor performance of bS-SDM (i.e. when bS-SDM overestimated the prediction of richness) the SESAM framework improved predictions of species composition. Main conclusions Our results differed from previous findings using community-level models. First, we show that overprediction of richness by bS-SDM is not a general rule, thus highlighting the relevance of producing good individual SDMs to capture the ecological filters that are important for the assembly process. Second, we confirm the potential of SESAM when richness is overpredicted by bS-SDM; limiting the number of species for each unit and applying biotic rules (here using the ranking of SDM probabilities) can improve predictions of species composition

From breaking the rule to making the rules : the adoption, entrenchment and diffusion of gender quotas in France

Once a country allergic to any type of preferential treatment or quota measure for women, France has become a country that applies gender quotas to regulate women's presence and representation in politics, the business sector, public bodies, public administration, and even some civil society organizations. While research has concentrated on the adoption of electoral gender quotas in many countries and their international diffusion, few studies focus on explaining the successful diffusion of gender quotas from politics to other domains in the same country. This paper proposes to fill this gap by studying the particularly puzzling case of a country that at one point strongly opposed the adoption of gender quotas in politics, but, in less than a decade, transformed into one of the few countries applying gender quotas across several policy domains. This paper argues that the legal entrenchment of the parity principle, the institutionalization of parity in several successive women's policy agencies, and key players in these newly created agencies are mainly responsible for this unexpected development. The diffusion of gender quotas in France thus offers an illuminating example of under which conditions women's policy agencies can act autonomously to diffuse and impose a new tool for gender equality