On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Determination of radionuclide levels in rainwater using ion exchange resin and gamma-spectrometry.

The evaluation of radioactivity accidentally released into the atmosphere involves determining the radioactivity levels of rainwater samples. Rainwater scavenges atmospheric airborne radioactivity in such a way that surface contamination can be deduced from rainfall rate and rainwater radioactivity content. For this purpose, rainwater is usually collected in large surface collectors and then measured by gamma-spectrometry after such treatments as evaporation or iron hydroxide precipitation. We found that collectors can be adapted to accept large surface (diameter 47mm) cartridges containing a strongly acidic resin (Dowex AG 88) which is able to quantitatively extract radioactivity from rainwater, even during heavy rainfall. The resin can then be measured by gamma-spectrometry. The detection limit is 0.1Bq per sample of resin (80g) for (137)Cs. Natural (7)Be and (210)Pb can also be measured and the activity ratio of both radionuclides is comparable with those obtained through iron hydroxide precipitation and air filter measurements. Occasionally (22)Na has also been measured above the detection limit. A comparison between the evaporation method and the resin method demonstrated that 2/3 of (7)Be can be lost during the evaporation process. The resin method is simple and highly efficient at extracting radioactivity. Because of these great advantages, we anticipate it could replace former rainwater determination methods. Moreover, it does not necessitate the transportation of large rainwater volumes to the laboratory.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

Proteomic data from human cell cultures refine mechanisms of chaperone-mediated protein homeostasis.

In the crowded environment of human cells, folding of nascent polypeptides and refolding of stress-unfolded proteins is error prone. Accumulation of cytotoxic misfolded and aggregated species may cause cell death, tissue loss, degenerative conformational diseases, and aging. Nevertheless, young cells effectively express a network of molecular chaperones and folding enzymes, termed here "the chaperome," which can prevent formation of potentially harmful misfolded protein conformers and use the energy of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to rehabilitate already formed toxic aggregates into native functional proteins. In an attempt to extend knowledge of chaperome mechanisms in cellular proteostasis, we performed a meta-analysis of human chaperome using high-throughput proteomic data from 11 immortalized human cell lines. Chaperome polypeptides were about 10 % of total protein mass of human cells, half of which were Hsp90s and Hsp70s. Knowledge of cellular concentrations and ratios among chaperome polypeptides provided a novel basis to understand mechanisms by which the Hsp60, Hsp70, Hsp90, and small heat shock proteins (HSPs), in collaboration with cochaperones and folding enzymes, assist de novo protein folding, import polypeptides into organelles, unfold stress-destabilized toxic conformers, and control the conformal activity of native proteins in the crowded environment of the cell. Proteomic data also provided means to distinguish between stable components of chaperone core machineries and dynamic regulatory cochaperones.

Distribution of artifactual gas on post-mortem multidetector computed tomography (MDCT)

L'imagerie est de plus en plus utilisée en médecine forensique. Actuellement, les connaissances nécessaires pour interpréter les images post mortem sont faibles et surtout celles concernant les artéfacts post mortem. Le moyen radiologique le plus utilisé en médecine légale est la tomodensitométrie multi-coupes (TDMC). Un de ses avantages est la détection de gaz dans le corps. Cette technique est utile au diagnostic d'embolie gazeuse mais sa très grande sensibilité rend visible du gaz présent même en petite quantité. Les premières expériences montrent que presque tous les corps scannés présentent du gaz surtout dans le système vasculaire. Pour cette raison, le médecin légiste est confronté à un nouveau problème : la distinction entre du gaz d'origine post-mortem et une embolie gazeuse vraie. Pour parvenir à cette distinction, il est essentiel d'étudier la distribution de ces gaz en post mortem. Aucune étude systématique n'a encore été réalisée à ce jour sur ce sujet.¦Nous avons étudié l'incidence et la distribution des gaz présents en post mortem dans les vaisseaux, dans les os, dans les tissus sous-cutanés, dans l'espace sous-dural ainsi que dans les cavités crânienne, thoracique et abdominale (82 sites au total) de manière à identifier les facteurs qui pourraient distinguer le gaz post-mortem artéfactuel d'une embolie gazeuse¦Les données TDMC de 119 cadavres ont été étudiées rétrospectivement. Les critères d'inclusion des sujets sont l'absence de lésion corporelle permettant la contamination avec l'air extérieur, et, la documentation du délai entre le moment du décès et celui du CT-scan (p.ex. rapport de police, protocole de réanimation ou témoin). La présence de gaz a été évaluée semi-quantitativement par deux radiologues et codifiée. La codification est la suivante : grade 0 = pas de gaz, grade 1 = une à quelques bulles d'air, grade 2 = structure partiellement remplie d'air, grade 3 = structure complètement remplie d'air.¦Soixante-quatre des 119 cadavres présentent du gaz (62,2%), et 56 (75,7%) ont montré du gaz dans le coeur. Du gaz a été détecté le plus fréquemment dans le parenchyme hépatique (40%); le coeur droit (ventricule 38%, atrium 35%), la veine cave inférieure (infra-rénale 30%, supra-rénale 26%), les veines sus-hépatiques (gauche 26%, moyenne 29%, droite 22 %), et les espaces du porte (29%). Nous avons constaté qu'une grande quantité de gaz liée à la putréfaction présente dans le coeur droit (grade 3) est associée à des collections de gaz dans le parenchyme hépatique (sensibilité = 100%, spécificité = 89,7%). Pour décrire nos résultats, nous avons construit une séquence d'animation qui illustre le processus de putréfaction et l'apparition des gaz à la TDMC post-mortem.¦Cette étude est la première à montrer que l'apparition post-mortem des gaz suit un modèle de distribution spécifique. L'association entre la présence de gaz intracardiaque et dans le parenchyme hépatique pourrait permettre de distinguer du gaz artéfactuel d'origine post-mortem d'une embolie gazeuse vraie. Cette étude fournit une clé pour le diagnostic de la mort due à une embolie gazeuse cardiaque sur la base d'une TDMC post-mortem.¦Abstract¦Purpose: We investigated the incidence and distribution of post-mortem gas detected with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) to identify factors that could distinguish artifactual gas from cardiac air embolism.¦Material and Methods: MDCT data of 119 cadavers were retrospectively examined. Gas was semiquantitatively assessed in selected blood vessels, organs and body spaces (82 total sites).¦Results: Seventy-four of the 119 cadavers displayed gas (62.2%; CI 95% 52.8 to 70.9), and 56 (75.7%) displayed gas in the heart. Most gas was detected in the hepatic parenchyma (40%); right heart (38% ventricle, 35% atrium), inferior vena cava (30% infrarenally, 26% suprarenally), hepatic veins (26% left, 29% middle, 22% right), and portal spaces (29%). Male cadavers displayed gas more frequently than female cadavers. Gas was detected 5-84 h after death; therefore, the post-mortem interval could not reliably predict gas distribution (rho=0.719, p<0.0001). We found that a large amount of putrefaction-generated gas in the right heart was associated with aggregated gas bubbles in the hepatic parenchyma (sensitivity = 100%, specificity = 89.7%). In contrast, gas in the left heart (sensitivity = 41.7%, specificity = 100%) or in peri-umbilical subcutaneous tissues (sensitivity = 50%, specificity = 96.3%) could not predict gas due to putrefaction.¦Conclusion: This study is the first to show that the appearance of post-mortem gas follows a specific distribution pattern. An association between intracardiac gas and hepatic parenchymal gas could distinguish between post- mortem-generated gas and vital air embolism. We propose that this finding provides a key for diagnosing death due to cardiac air embolism.

Molecular chaperones as enzymes that catalytically unfold misfolded polypeptides.

Stress-denatured or de novo synthesized and translocated unfolded polypeptides can spontaneously reach their native state without assistance of other proteins. Yet, the pathway to native folding is complex, stress-sensitive and prone to errors. Toxic misfolded and aggregated conformers may accumulate in cells and lead to degenerative diseases. Members of the canonical conserved families of molecular chaperones, Hsp100s, Hsp70/110/40s, Hsp60/CCTs, the small Hsps and probably also Hsp90s, can recognize and bind with high affinity, abnormally exposed hydrophobic surfaces on misfolded and aggregated polypeptides. Binding to Hsp100, Hsp70, Hsp110, Hsp40, Hsp60, CCTs and Trigger factor may cause partial unfolding of the misfolded polypeptide substrates, and ATP hydrolysis can induce further unfolding and release from the chaperone, leading to spontaneous refolding into native proteins with low-affinity for the chaperones. Hence, specific chaperones act as catalytic polypeptide unfolding isomerases, rerouting cytotoxic misfolded and aggregated polypeptides back onto their physiological native refolding pathway, thus averting the onset of protein conformational diseases.

Stable O and H isotopic composition of hydrous minerals as proxies for paleoclimate and -topography : application to the European Alps

The isotopie composition of clay minerals can be used to gain information on paleoaltitude, -topography and -climate during the time of their formation, as they form in isotopie equilibrium with ambient water, which has an isotopie composition that is determined by previous rain-out. In this thesis, the usability of this approach is evaluated for sample material from both the North Alpine Foreland Basin and internal parts of the European Alps. The isotopie composition of precipitation is determined by the air temperature and the extent of previous rain-out, which in turn is affected by the distance to the point of origin of the water vapor and the condensation conditions. An orographic barrier leads to uplift and adiabatic cooling of air masses and thereby enhances rainfall with a characteristic depletion in heavy 0 and H isotopes. Processes such as evaporation and mixing of water with different origin affect the isotopie composition further on the surface. Clay minerals are hydrous phyllosilicates that can form during weathering or pedogenesis in isotopie equilibrium with the present water and inherit its isotopie composition with a characteristic fractionation. If their isotopie composition was preserved after formation and the necessary parameters are known, it is possible to calculate the isotopie composition of the ambient water and thereby reconstruct climatic and topographic conditions during their formation. Due to the hygroscopic behavior of the sample material, analytical procedures needed to be modified to allow an analysis of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopie composition of the hydroxyl water built into their crystal structure and not the one of recently adsorbed water. In order to determine typical 5lsO and 8D values of meteoric water and minerals in the weathering environment in high Alpine regions, samples of surface water and soils from the valley of Visp in the Swiss Alps were studied that were collected along a transect with varying altitudes and host rock lithologies. The actual aim to attempt the reconstruction of Alpine paleoelevations was addressed by the analysis of sediments deposited under marine and terrestrial conditions during the Miocene and Oligocene, which were sampled from different locations in Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Further bentonite and fault gouge clay samples were used as reference material from low and high elevations. Results show that the isotopie composition of clay minerals can be influenced by several factors, such as the mode and site of their formation, possible isotope exchange (which is evident for 8D values), the samples' mineral composition (such as the presence of detrital material) and the deposition environment. With a consideration of these parameters and limitation to certain sample material, conclusions are drawn on the isotopie composition of the water from which the clay minerals formed. Most of the obtained values lie in the same range as has been reported in literature for foreland precipitation. The reconstruction of paleoelevation might be possible for selected sites with a geographical setting close to the Alpine chain or for intramontane basins. - La composition isotopique des argiles, qui se forment typiquement en contact avec des eaux superficielles, peut être utilisée pour obtenir des informations sur la paléoaltitude, la paléotopographie et le paléoclimat pendant leur création. La composition en isotopes stable (oxygène et hydrogène) des eaux de pluie est déterminée par l'altitude, la température, la distance depuis le lieu d'évaporation et par le taux de précipitation. Certains processus comme l'évaporation, l'interaction avec des minéraux et le mélange d'eaux d'origines variées peuvent aussi changer la composition des eaux de surface. Les argiles sont des pliyllosilicates hydratés qui sont crées par l'altération des roches au contact de ces eaux de surface et ils acquièrent une composition isotopique qui est soumise à un certain fractionnement. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer si l'effet de l'altitude des Alpes, est détectable dans la composition isotopique des sédiments du bassin d'avant-pavs pendant le Miocène. Après avoir établi la procédure analytique, des compositions isotopiques typiques de régions de hautes altitudes ont été determine sur les eaux de surfaces (rivières) et sur des échantillons de sols, le long d'une coupe dans la valée de Visp, dans les Alpes Suisses. Une reconstruction des paléoaltitudes Miocènes Alpines a ensuite été mené par l'analyse de sédiments marins et terrestres en utilisant des échantillons d'âges variés et provenant de Suisse, d'Allemagne et d'Autriche. Les résultats montrent que la composition isotopique des échantillons est impactée par de multiples facteurs, tels que le mode de et le lieu de formation. un possible échange isotopique tardif (surtout pour 5D). leur composition minéralogique et l'environnement de leur sédimentation. Après un examen prudent de ces paramètres, et en se limitant à un certain assortiment d'échatillons, on peut tirer des conclusions sur la composition isotopique des eaux originelles pour en déduire l'effet du climat et de la topographie.

Debris flows as a factor of hillslope evolution controlled by a continuous or a pulse process?

Flood effectiveness observations imply that two families of processes describe the formation of debris flow volume. One is related to the rainfall?erosion relationship, and can be seen as a gradual process, and one is related to additional geological/geotechnical events, those named hereafter extraordinary events. In order to discuss the hypothesis of coexistence of two modes of volume formation, some methodologies are applied. Firstly, classical approaches consisting in relating volume to catchments characteristics are considered. These approaches raise questions about the quality of the data rather than providing answers concerning the controlling processes. Secondly, we consider statistical approaches (cumulative number of events distribution and cluster analysis) and these suggest the possibility of having two distinct families of processes. However the quantitative evaluation of the threshold differs from the one that could be obtained from the first approach, but they all agree in the sense of the coexistence of two families of events. Thirdly, a conceptual model is built exploring how and why debris flow volume in alpine catchments changes with time. Depending on the initial condition (sediment production), the model shows that large debris flows (i.e. with important volume) are observed in the beginning period, before a steady-state is reached. During this second period debris flow volume such as is observed in the beginning period is not observed again. Integrating the results of the three approaches, two case studies are presented showing: (1) the possibility to observe in a catchment large volumes that will never happen again due to a drastic decrease in the sediment availability, supporting its difference from gradual erosion processes; (2) that following a rejuvenation of the sediment storage (by a rock avalanche) the magnitude?frequency relationship of a torrent can be differentiated into two phases, the beginning one with large and frequent debris flow and a later one with debris flow less intense and frequent, supporting the results of the conceptual model. Although the results obtained cannot identify a clear threshold between the two families of processes, they show that some debris flows can be seen as pulse of sediment differing from that expected from gradual erosion.

Molecular chaperones are nanomachines that catalytically unfold misfolded and alternatively folded proteins.

By virtue of their general ability to bind (hold) translocating or unfolding polypeptides otherwise doomed to aggregate, molecular chaperones are commonly dubbed "holdases". Yet, chaperones also carry physiological functions that do not necessitate prevention of aggregation, such as altering the native states of proteins, as in the disassembly of SNARE complexes and clathrin coats. To carry such physiological functions, major members of the Hsp70, Hsp110, Hsp100, and Hsp60/CCT chaperone families act as catalytic unfolding enzymes or unfoldases that drive iterative cycles of protein binding, unfolding/pulling, and release. One unfoldase chaperone may thus successively convert many misfolded or alternatively folded polypeptide substrates into transiently unfolded intermediates, which, once released, can spontaneously refold into low-affinity native products. Whereas during stress, a large excess of non-catalytic chaperones in holding mode may optimally prevent protein aggregation, after the stress, catalytic disaggregases and unfoldases may act as nanomachines that use the energy of ATP hydrolysis to repair proteins with compromised conformations. Thus, holding and catalytic unfolding chaperones can act as primary cellular defenses against the formation of early misfolded and aggregated proteotoxic conformers in order to avert or retard the onset of degenerative protein conformational diseases.

Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology in relation to breeding season climate

Winter weather has a strong influence on Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology. Here, we analyzed the impacts of weather conditions on reproductive performance during the breeding season using data collected over 22 years in a Swiss Barn Owl population. Variations in rain and temperature during the breeding season played an important role in within-year variation in Barn Owl reproduction. An increase in rainfall during the period from 4 to 2 weeks preceding egg laying had a positive effect on clutch size. In contrast, fledgling body mass was negatively influenced by rainfall during the 24 h preceding the measurements. Finally, ambient temperature during the rearing period was positively associated with brood size at fledging. In conclusion, weather conditions during the breeding season place constraints on Barn Owl reproduction.

Social structure emerges via the interaction between local ecology and individual behaviour.

1. The formation of groups is a fundamental aspect of social organization, but there are still many questions regarding how social structure emerges from individuals making non-random associations. 2. Although food distribution and individual phenotypic traits are known to separately influence social organization, this is the first study, to our knowledge, experimentally linking them to demonstrate the importance of their interaction in the emergence of social structure. 3. Using an experimental design in which food distribution was either clumped or dispersed, in combination with individuals that varied in exploratory behaviour, our results show that social structure can be induced in the otherwise non-social European shore crab (Carcinus maenas). 4. Regardless of food distribution, individuals with relatively high exploratory behaviour played an important role in connecting otherwise poorly connected individuals. In comparison, low exploratory individuals aggregated into cohesive, stable subgroups (moving together even when not foraging), but only in tanks where resources were clumped. No such non-foraging subgroups formed in environments where food was evenly dispersed. 5. Body size did not accurately explain an individual's role within the network for either type of food distribution. 6. Because of their synchronized movements and potential to gain social information, groups of low exploratory crabs were more effective than singletons at finding food. 7. Because social structure affects selection, and social structure is shown to be sensitive to the interaction between ecological and behavioural differences among individuals, local selective pressures are likely to reflect this interaction.

Kernel-based Mapping of Meteorological Fields in Complex Orography

Due to the advances in sensor networks and remote sensing technologies, the acquisition and storage rates of meteorological and climatological data increases every day and ask for novel and efficient processing algorithms. A fundamental problem of data analysis and modeling is the spatial prediction of meteorological variables in complex orography, which serves among others to extended climatological analyses, for the assimilation of data into numerical weather prediction models, for preparing inputs to hydrological models and for real time monitoring and short-term forecasting of weather.In this thesis, a new framework for spatial estimation is proposed by taking advantage of a class of algorithms emerging from the statistical learning theory. Nonparametric kernel-based methods for nonlinear data classification, regression and target detection, known as support vector machines (SVM), are adapted for mapping of meteorological variables in complex orography.With the advent of high resolution digital elevation models, the field of spatial prediction met new horizons. In fact, by exploiting image processing tools along with physical heuristics, an incredible number of terrain features which account for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales can be extracted. Such features are highly relevant for the mapping of meteorological variables because they control a considerable part of the spatial variability of meteorological fields in the complex Alpine orography. For instance, patterns of orographic rainfall, wind speed and cold air pools are known to be correlated with particular terrain forms, e.g. convex/concave surfaces and upwind sides of mountain slopes.Kernel-based methods are employed to learn the nonlinear statistical dependence which links the multidimensional space of geographical and topographic explanatory variables to the variable of interest, that is the wind speed as measured at the weather stations or the occurrence of orographic rainfall patterns as extracted from sequences of radar images. Compared to low dimensional models integrating only the geographical coordinates, the proposed framework opens a way to regionalize meteorological variables which are multidimensional in nature and rarely show spatial auto-correlation in the original space making the use of classical geostatistics tangled.The challenges which are explored during the thesis are manifolds. First, the complexity of models is optimized to impose appropriate smoothness properties and reduce the impact of noisy measurements. Secondly, a multiple kernel extension of SVM is considered to select the multiscale features which explain most of the spatial variability of wind speed. Then, SVM target detection methods are implemented to describe the orographic conditions which cause persistent and stationary rainfall patterns. Finally, the optimal splitting of the data is studied to estimate realistic performances and confidence intervals characterizing the uncertainty of predictions.The resulting maps of average wind speeds find applications within renewable resources assessment and opens a route to decrease the temporal scale of analysis to meet hydrological requirements. Furthermore, the maps depicting the susceptibility to orographic rainfall enhancement can be used to improve current radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting systems and to generate stochastic ensembles of precipitation fields conditioned upon the orography.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Paleohydrological Reconstruction from Late Holocene Records in Interdune Lakes (N'Guigmi, Northern Bank of the Lake Chad, Niger)

An old erg covers the northern part of the Lake Chad basin. This dune landform allowed the formation of many inter- dune ponds of various sizes. Still present in certain zones where the groundwater level is high (e.g. Kanem, southern Manga), these ponds formed in the past a vast network of lacustrine microsystems, as shown by the nature and the dis- tribution of their deposits. In the Manga, these interdune deposits represent the main sedimentary records of the Holo- cene environmental succession. Their paleobiological (pollens, diatoms, ostracods) and geochemical (δ18O, δ13C, Sr/ Ca) contents are often the basis for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. On the other hand, their sedimentological char- acters are rarely exploited. This study of palustro-lacustrine deposits of the Holocene N'Guigmi lake (northern bank of the Lake Chad; Niger) is based on the relationships between the sedimentological features and the climato-hydrological fluctuations. The mineralogical parameters (e.g. calcium carbonate content, clay mineralogy) and the nature of autoch- thonous mineralization (i.e. amorphous silica, clays, calcium carbonates) can be interpreted using a straightforward hy- dro-sedimentary model. Established to explain the geochemical dynamics of Lake Chad, this model is based on a bio- geochemical cycle of the main elements (i.e. silicium, calcium) directly controlled by the local hydrological balance (i.e. rainfall/evaporation ratio). All these results show that a detailed study of sedimentological features can provide impor- tant paleohydrological informations about the regional aridification since ca 6500 14C BP.