Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Does fructose consumption contribute to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease?

Fructose is mainly consumed with added sugars (sucrose and high fructose corn syrup), and represents up to 10% of total energy intake in the US and in several European countries. This hexose is essentially metabolized in splanchnic tissues, where it is converted into glucose, glycogen, lactate, and, to a minor extent, fatty acids. In animal models, high fructose diets cause the development of obesity, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia. Ectopic lipid deposition in the liver is an early occurrence upon fructose exposure, and is tightly linked to hepatic insulin resistance. In humans, there is strong evidence, based on several intervention trials, that fructose overfeeding increases fasting and postprandial plasma triglyceride concentrations, which are related to stimulation of hepatic de novo lipogenesis and VLDL-TG secretion, together with decreased VLDL-TG clearance. However, in contrast to animal models, fructose intakes as high as 200 g/day in humans only modestly decreases hepatic insulin sensitivity, and has no effect on no whole body (muscle) insulin sensitivity. A possible explanation may be that insulin resistance and dysglycemia develop mostly in presence of sustained fructose exposures associated with changes in body composition. Such effects are observed with high daily fructose intakes, and there is no solid evidence that fructose, when consumed in moderate amounts, has deleterious effects. There is only limited information regarding the effects of fructose on intrahepatic lipid concentrations. In animal models, high fructose diets clearly stimulate hepatic de novo lipogenesis and cause hepatic steatosis. In addition, some observations suggest that fructose may trigger hepatic inflammation and stimulate the development of hepatic fibrosis. This raises the possibility that fructose may promote the progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to its more severe forms, i.e. non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and cirrhosis. In humans, a short-term fructose overfeeding stimulates de novo lipogenesis and significantly increases intrahepatic fat concentration, without however reaching the proportion encountered in non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases. Whether consumption of lower amounts of fructose over prolonged periods may contribute to the pathogenesis of NAFLD has not been convincingly documented in epidemiological studies and remains to be further assessed.

Production Flow Analysis - cases from manufacturing and service industry

Production flow analysis (PFA) is a well-established methodology used for transforming traditional functional layout into product-oriented layout. The method uses part routings to find natural clusters of workstations forming production cells able to complete parts and components swiftly with simplified material flow. Once implemented, the scheduling system is based on period batch control aiming to establish fixed planning, production and delivery cycles for the whole production unit. PFA is traditionally applied to job-shops with functional layouts, and after reorganization within groups lead times reduce, quality improves and motivation among personnel improves. Several papers have documented this, yet no research has studied its application to service operations management. This paper aims to show that PFA can well be applied not only to job-shop and assembly operations, but also to back-office and service processes with real cases. The cases clearly show that PFA reduces non-value adding operations, introduces flow by evening out bottlenecks and diminishes process variability, all of which contribute to efficient operations management.

How single-trial electrical neuroimaging contributes to multisensory research.

This study details a method to statistically determine, on a millisecond scale and for individual subjects, those brain areas whose activity differs between experimental conditions, using single-trial scalp-recorded EEG data. To do this, we non-invasively estimated local field potentials (LFPs) using the ELECTRA distributed inverse solution and applied non-parametric statistical tests at each brain voxel and for each time point. This yields a spatio-temporal activation pattern of differential brain responses. The method is illustrated here in the analysis of auditory-somatosensory (AS) multisensory interactions in four subjects. Differential multisensory responses were temporally and spatially consistent across individuals, with onset at approximately 50 ms and superposition within areas of the posterior superior temporal cortex that have traditionally been considered auditory in their function. The close agreement of these results with previous investigations of AS multisensory interactions suggests that the present approach constitutes a reliable method for studying multisensory processing with the temporal and spatial resolution required to elucidate several existing questions in this field. In particular, the present analyses permit a more direct comparison between human and animal studies of multisensory interactions and can be extended to examine correlation between electrophysiological phenomena and behavior.

How High Dose(s) of Oral Vitamin D3 Can Correct Insufficiency in a Non Supplemented Rheumatologic Population ?

Introduction: 700 to 1000 UI Vitamin D/day prevent 20% of fall and fracture. Higher dosage could prevent other health problems, such as immune diseases. Adherence to oral daily vitamin D supplementation is low. There is no guideline on how to supplement patients with rheumatic diseases. We evaluated if 1-2 dose(s) of 300'000 UI oral vitamin D3 was enough to reach an optimal level of 25-OH vitamin D in late winter in patients with insufficiency. Methods: During November 2009 (M0) patients attending our Rheumatology Outpatient Clinic had a blood test to measure 25-OH vitamin D. Results were classified as: deficiency <10µg/l, insufficiency 10µg/l to 30µg/l and normal >30µg/l. Patients on daily oral vitamin D3 or who received a single high dose of vitamin D3 in the last 6 months and patients with deficiency or normal results were excluded. Patients included received a single dose of 300'000 IU of oral vitamin D3 and were asked to come back for a blood test for 25-OH vitamin D after 3 (M3) and 6 months (M6). If they were still insufficient at M3, they received a second high dose of 300'000 IU of oral vitamin D3. Results: 292 patients had their level of 25-OH vitamin D determined at M0. 141 patients (70% women) had vitamin D insufficiency (18.5µg/l (10.2-29.1)) and received a prescription for a single dose of 300'000 IU of oral vitamin D3. Men and women were not statistically different in term of age and 25-OH vitamin D level at M0. 124/141 (88%) patients had a blood test at M3. 2/124 (2%) had deficiency (8.1µg/l (7.5-8.7)), 50/124 (40%) normal results (36.7µg/l (30.5-56.5)). 58% (72/124) were insufficient (23.6µg/l (13.8-29.8)) and received a second prescription for 300'000 IU of oral vitamin D3. Of the 50/124 patients who had normal results at M3 and did not receive a second prescription, 36 (72%) had a test at M6. 47% (17/36) had normal results (34.8µg/l (30.3-42.8)), 53% (19/36) were insufficient (25.6µg/l (15.2-29.9)). Out of the 54/72 (75%) patients who received a second prescription, 28/54 (52%) had insufficiency (23.2µg/l (12.8-28.7)) and 26/54 (48%) had normal results (33.8µg/l (30.0-43.7)) at M 6. Discussion: This real life study has shown that one or two oral bolus of 300'000 IU of vitamin D3 in autumn and winter was not enough to completely correct hypovitaminosis D but was a good way of preventing a nadir of 25-OH vitamin D usually observed in spring in a Swiss rheumatologic population.

Rôle de l'EGFR dans le cancer pulmonaire non à petites cellules [The role of EGFR in non-small cell lung carcinoma]

EGFR receptor is expressed on most of the non small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) cells. Its relative importance in oncogenesis and tumour progression seems to greatly vary among NSCLC. Two molecules targeting differently EGFR are currently used for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC. cetuximab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the extracellular domain of the receptor, leads to a moderate survival benefit when associated with standard first-line chemotherapy. Erlotinib, a small EGFR tyrosine-kinase inhibitor molecule is used in 2nd or 3rd treatment line. Predictive factors for efficiency of these new treatments are subjects of intense research, in order to allow a better selection of the patients who could benefit from such a strategy.

Which change talk dimensions are associated with subsequent drinking among young men receiving a brief motivational intervention in a non-clinical setting?

Background: Patient change talk (CT) during brief motivational interventions (BMI) has been linked with subsequent changes in drinking in clinical settings but this link has not been clearly established among young people in non-clinical populations. Objective: To determine which of several CT dimensions assessed during an effective BMI delivered in a non-clinical setting to 20-year old men are associated with drinking 6 months later. Methods: Of 125 individuals receiving a face-to-face BMI session (15.8 ± 5.4 minutes), we recorded and coded a subsample of 42 sessions using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code 2.1. Each patient change talk utterance was categorized as `Reason´, `Ability´, `Desire´, `Need´, `Commitment´, `Taking steps´, or `Other´. Each utterance was graded according to its strength (absolute value from 1 to 3) and direction (i.e. towards (positive sign) or away (negative sign) from change/in favor of status quo). `Ability´, `Desire´, and `Need´ to change (`ADN´) were grouped together since these codes were too scarce to conduct analyses. Mean strength scores over the entire session were computed for each dimension and later dichotomized in towards change (i.e. mean core > 0) and away from change/in favor of status quo. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the relationship between CT dimensions and drinking 6 months later, adjusting for drinking at baseline. Results: Compared to subjects with a `Taking steps´ score away from change/in favor of status quo, subjects with a positive `Taking steps´ score reported significantly less drinking 6 months later (Incidence Rate Ration [IRR] for drinks per week: 0.56, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.31, 1.00). IRR (95%CI) for subjects with a positive `ADN´ score was 0.58, (0.32, 1.03). For subjects with a positive `Reason´, `Commitment´, and `Other´ scores, IRR (95%CI) were 1.28 (0.77; 2.12) 1.63 (0.85; 3.14) and 1.03 (0.61; 1.72), respectively. Conclusion: A change talk dimension reflecting steps taken towards change (`Taking steps´) is associated with less drinking 6 months later among young men receiving a BMI in a non-clinical setting. Encouraging patients to take steps towa change may be a worthy objective for clinicians and may explain BMI efficacy.

Peri-operative management of antiplatelet therapy in patients with coronary artery disease. Joint position paper by members of the working group on Perioperative Haemostasis of the Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis Research (GTH), the working group on Perioperative Coagulation of the Austrian Society for Anesthesiology, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (ÖGARI) and the Working Group Thrombosis of the European Society for Cardiology (ESC).

An increasing number of patients suffering from cardiovascular disease, especially coronary artery disease (CAD), are treated with aspirin and/or clopidogrel for the prevention of major adverse events. Unfortunately, there are no specific, widely accepted recommendations for the perioperative management of patients receiving antiplatelet therapy. Therefore, members of the Perioperative Haemostasis Group of the Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis Research (GTH), the Perioperative Coagulation Group of the Austrian Society for Anesthesiology, Reanimation and Intensive Care (ÖGARI) and the Working Group Thrombosis of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) have created this consensus position paper to provide clear recommendations on the perioperative use of anti-platelet agents (specifically with semi-urgent and urgent surgery), strongly supporting a multidisciplinary approach to optimize the treatment of individual patients with coronary artery disease who need major cardiac and non-cardiac surgery. With planned surgery, drug eluting stents (DES) should not be used unless surgery can be delayed for ≥12 months after DES implantation. If surgery cannot be delayed, surgical revascularisation, bare-metal stents or pure balloon angioplasty should be considered. During ongoing antiplatelet therapy, elective surgery should be delayed for the recommended duration of treatment. In patients with semi-urgent surgery, the decision to prematurely stop one or both antiplatelet agents (at least 5 days pre-operatively) has to be taken after multidisciplinary consultation, evaluating the individual thrombotic and bleeding risk. Urgently needed surgery has to take place under full antiplatelet therapy despite the increased bleeding risk. A multidisciplinary approach for optimal antithrombotic and haemostatic patient management is thus mandatory.

Fate of clinical research studies after ethical approval--follow-up of study protocols until publication.

BACKGROUND: Many clinical studies are ultimately not fully published in peer-reviewed journals. Underreporting of clinical research is wasteful and can result in biased estimates of treatment effect or harm, leading to recommendations that are inappropriate or even dangerous. METHODS: We assembled a cohort of clinical studies approved 2000-2002 by the Research Ethics Committee of the University of Freiburg, Germany. Published full articles were searched in electronic databases and investigators contacted. Data on study characteristics were extracted from protocols and corresponding publications. We characterized the cohort, quantified its publication outcome and compared protocols and publications for selected aspects. RESULTS: Of 917 approved studies, 807 were started and 110 were not, either locally or as a whole. Of the started studies, 576 (71%) were completed according to protocol, 128 (16%) discontinued and 42 (5%) are still ongoing; for 61 (8%) there was no information about their course. We identified 782 full publications corresponding to 419 of the 807 initiated studies; the publication proportion was 52% (95% CI: 0.48-0.55). Study design was not significantly associated with subsequent publication. Multicentre status, international collaboration, large sample size and commercial or non-commercial funding were positively associated with subsequent publication. Commercial funding was mentioned in 203 (48%) protocols and in 205 (49%) of the publications. In most published studies (339; 81%) this information corresponded between protocol and publication. Most studies were published in English (367; 88%); some in German (25; 6%) or both languages (27; 6%). The local investigators were listed as (co-)authors in the publications corresponding to 259 (62%) studies. CONCLUSION: Half of the clinical research conducted at a large German university medical centre remains unpublished; future research is built on an incomplete database. Research resources are likely wasted as neither health care professionals nor patients nor policy makers can use the results when making decisions.

Indications and limitations of chemotherapy and targeted agents in non-small cell lung cancer brain metastases.

Lung cancer is characterized by the highest incidence of solid tumor-related brain metastases, which are reported with a growing incidence during the last decade. Prognostic assessment may help to identify subgroups of patients that could benefit from more aggressive therapy of metastatic disease, in particular when central nervous system is involved. The recent sub-classification of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) into molecularly-defined "oncogene-addicted" tumors, the emergence of effective targeted treatments in molecularly defined patient subsets, global improvement of advanced NSCLC survival as well as the availability of refined new radiotherapy techniques are likely to impact on outcomes of patients with brain dissemination. The present review focuses on key evidence and research strategies for systemic treatment of patients with central nervous system involvement in non-small cell lung cancer.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy followed by surgery in selected patients with stage IIIB non-small-cell lung cancer: a multicentre phase II trial.

BACKGROUND: Stage IIIB non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is usually thought to be unresectable, and is managed with chemotherapy with or without radiotherapy. However, selected patients might benefit from surgical resection after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. The aim of this multicentre, phase II trial was to assess the efficacy and toxicity of a neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy followed by surgery in patients with technically operable stage IIIB NSCLC. METHODS: Between September, 2001, and May, 2006, patients with pathologically proven and technically resectable stage IIIB NSCLC were sequentially treated with three cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin with docetaxel), immediately followed by accelerated concomitant boost radiotherapy (44 Gy in 22 fractions) and definitive surgery. The primary endpoint was event-free survival at 12 months. Efficacy analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00030810. FINDINGS: 46 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 60 years (range 28-70). 13 (28%) patients had N3 disease, 36 (78%) had T4 disease. All patients received chemotherapy; 35 (76%) patients received radiotherapy. The main toxicities during chemotherapy were neutropenia (25 patients [54%] at grade 3 or 4) and febrile neutropenia (nine [20%]); the main toxicity after radiotherapy was oesophagitis (ten patients [29%]; nine grade 2, one grade 3). 35 patients (76%) underwent surgery, with pneumonectomy in 17 patients. A complete (R0) resection was achieved in 27 patients. Peri-operative complications occurred in 14 patients, including two deaths (30-day mortality 5.7%). Seven patients required a second surgical intervention. Pathological mediastinal downstaging was seen in 11 of the 28 patients who had lymph-node involvement at enrolment, a complete pathological response was seen in six patients. Event-free survival at 12 months was 54% (95% CI 39-67). After a median follow-up of 58 months, the median overall survival was 29 months (95% CI 16.1-NA), with survival at 1, 3, and 5 years of 67% (95% CI 52-79), 47% (32-61), and 40% (24-55). INTERPRETATION: A treatment strategy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy followed by surgery is feasible in selected patients. Toxicity is considerable, but manageable. Survival compares favourably with historical results of combined treatment for less advanced stage IIIA disease. FUNDING: Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK) and an unrestricted educational grant by Sanofi-Aventis (Switzerland).

Addressing non-communicable diseases in the Seychelles: towards a comprehensive plan of action.

This article reviews the different steps taken during the past 20 years for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Seychelles. National surveys revealed high levels of several cardiovascular risk factors and prompted an organized response, starting with the creation of an NCD unit in the Ministry of Health. Information campaigns and nationwide activities raised awareness and rallied increasingly broad and high-level support. Significant policy was developed including comprehensive tobacco legislation and a School Nutrition Policy that bans soft drinks in schools. NCD guidelines were developed and specialized 'NCD nurses' were trained to complement doctors in district health centers. Decreasing smoking prevalence is evidence of success, but the raising so-called diabesity epidemic calls for an integrated multi-sector policy to mould an environment conducive to healthy behaviors. Essential components of these efforts include: effective surveillance mechanisms supplemented by focused research; generating broad interest and consensus; mobilizing leadership and commitment at all levels; involving local and international expertise; building on existing efforts; and seeking integrated, multi-disciplinary and multi-sector approaches.

Current state of vaccine therapies in non-small-cell lung cancer.

A large variety of cancer vaccines have undergone extensive testing in early-phase clinical trials. A limited number have also been tested in randomized phase II clinical trials. Encouraging trends toward increased survival in the vaccine arms have been recently observed for 2 vaccine candidates in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. These have provided the impetus for the initiation of phase III trials in large groups of patients with lung cancer. These vaccines target 2 antigens widely expressed in lung carcinomas: melanoma-associated antigen 3, a cancer testis antigen; and mucin 1, an antigen overexpressed in a largely deglycosylated form in advanced tumors. Therapeutic cancer vaccines aim at inducing strong CD8 and CD4 T-cell responses. The majority of vaccines recently tested in phase I clinical trials show efficacy in terms of induction of specific tumor antigen immunity. However, clinical efficacy remains to be determined but appears limited. Efforts are thus aimed at understanding the basis for this apparent lack of effect on tumors. Two major factors are involved. On one hand, current vaccines are suboptimal. Strong adjuvant agents and appropriate tumor antigens are needed. Moreover, dose, route, and schedule also need optimization. On the other hand, it is now clear that large tumors often present a tolerogenic microenvironment that hampers effective antitumor immunity. The partial understanding of the molecular pathways leading to functional inactivation of T cells at tumor sites has provided new targets for intervention. In this regard, blockade of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 and programmed death-1 with humanized monoclonal antibodies has reached the clinical testing stage. In the future, more potent cancer vaccines will benefit from intense research in antigen discovery and adjuvant agents. Furthermore, it is likely that vaccines need to be combined with compounds that reverse major tolerogenic pathways that are constitutively active at the tumor site. Developing these combined approaches to vaccination in cancer promises new, exciting findings and, at the same time, poses important challenges to academic research institutions and the pharmaceutical industry.

The INTERNORM Project: Bridging Two Worlds of Expert- and Lay-Knowledge in Standardization

This paper presents a pilot project to reinforce participatory practices in standardization. The INTERNORM project creates an interactive knowledge center based on the sharing of academic skills and experiences accumulated by the civil society, especially consumer associations, environmental associations and trade unions to strengthen the participatory process of standardization. The first objective of the project is action-oriented: INTERNORM provides a common knowledge pool supporting the participation of civil society actors to international standard-setting activities by bringing them together with academic experts in working groups and providing logistic and financial support to their participation in meetings of national and international technical committees. The second objective is analytical: the standardization action provides a research field for a better understanding of the participatory dynamics underpinning international standardization. This paper presents three incentives that explain civil society (non-)involvement in standardization that overcome conventional resource-based hypotheses: an operational incentive related to the use of standards in the selective goods provided by associations to their membership; a thematic incentive provided by the setting of priorities by strategic committees created in some standardization organization; and a rhetorical incentive related to the discursive resource that civil society concerns offers to the different stakeholders.

A critical analysis of three psychological research programs of doping behaviour

Objectives To consider the various specific substances-taking activities in sport an examination of three psychological models of doping behaviour utilised by researchers is presented in order to evaluate their real and potential impact, and to improve the relevance and efficiency of anti-doping campaigns. Design Adopting the notion of a "research program" (Lakatos, 1978) from the philosophy of science, a range of studies into the psychology of doping behaviour are classified and critically analysed. Method Theoretical and practical parameters of three research programs are critically evaluated (i) cognitive; (ii) drive; and (iii) situated-dynamic. Results The analysis reveals the diversity of theoretical commitments of the research programs and their practical consequences. The «cognitive program» assumes that athletes are accountable for their acts that reflect the endeavour to attain sporting and non-sporting goals. Attitudes, knowledge and rational decisions are understood to be the basis of doping behaviour. The «drive program» characterises the variety of traces and consequences on psychological and somatic states coming from athlete's experience with sport. Doping behaviour here is conceived of as a solution to reduce unconscious psychological and somatic distress. The «situated-dynamic program» considers a broader context of athletes' doping activity and its evolution during a sport career. Doping is considered as emergent and self-organized behaviour, grounded on temporally critical couplings between athletes' actions and situations and the specific dynamics of their development during the sporting life course. Conclusions These hypothetical, theoretical and methodological considerations offer a more nuanced understanding of doping behaviours, making an effective contribution to anti-doping education and research by enabling researchers and policy personnel to become more critically reflective about their explicit and implicit assumptions regarding models of explanations for doping behaviour.