Kernel-based mapping of orographic rainfall enhancement in the Swiss Alps as detected by weatherradar

In this paper, we develop a data-driven methodology to characterize the likelihood of orographic precipitation enhancement using sequences of weather radar images and a digital elevation model (DEM). Geographical locations with topographic characteristics favorable to enforce repeatable and persistent orographic precipitation such as stationary cells, upslope rainfall enhancement, and repeated convective initiation are detected by analyzing the spatial distribution of a set of precipitation cells extracted from radar imagery. Topographic features such as terrain convexity and gradients computed from the DEM at multiple spatial scales as well as velocity fields estimated from sequences of weather radar images are used as explanatory factors to describe the occurrence of localized precipitation enhancement. The latter is represented as a binary process by defining a threshold on the number of cell occurrences at particular locations. Both two-class and one-class support vector machine classifiers are tested to separate the presumed orographic cells from the nonorographic ones in the space of contributing topographic and flow features. Site-based validation is carried out to estimate realistic generalization skills of the obtained spatial prediction models. Due to the high class separability, the decision function of the classifiers can be interpreted as a likelihood or susceptibility of orographic precipitation enhancement. The developed approach can serve as a basis for refining radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates and short-term forecasts or for generating stochastic precipitation ensembles conditioned on the local topography.

Follow-up care amongst long-term childhood cancer survivors: a report from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

In the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we aimed to assess the proportion of long-term survivors attending follow-up care, to characterise attendees and to describe the health professionals involved. We sent a questionnaire to 1252 patients, of whom 985 (79%) responded, aged in average 27 years (range 20-49). Overall, 183 (19%) reported regular, 405 (41%) irregular and 394 (40%) no follow-up. For 344, severity of late effects had been classified in a previous medical examination. Only 17% and 32% of survivors with moderate and severe late effects respectively had made regular visits a decade later. Female gender, after a shorter time since diagnosis, had radiotherapy, and having suffered a relapse predicted follow-up. In the past year, 8% had seen a general practitioner only, 10% a paediatric or adult oncologist and 16% other health specialists for a cancer related problem. These findings underline the necessity to implement tailored national follow-up programmes.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Hepatitis B virus infection is associated with impaired immunological recovery during antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients worldwide. It is unclear whether HIV-related outcomes are affected by HBV coinfection. We compared virological suppression and immunological recovery during antiretroviral therapy (ART) of patients of different HBV serological status in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. CD4 cell recovery during ART was significantly impaired in hepatitis B surface antigen-positive patients and in those with anti-hepatitis B core antigen alone compared with HBV-uninfected patients, despite similar virological efficacy of ART. CD4 increase in patients with resolved HBV infection was similar to that in HBV-uninfected individuals.

Is trauma in Switzerland any different? epidemiology and patterns of injury in major trauma - a 5-year review from a Swiss trauma centre.

Switzerland, the country with the highest health expenditure per capita, is lacking data on trauma care and system planning. Recently, 12 trauma centres were designated to be reassessed through a future national trauma registry by 2015. Lausanne University Hospital launched the first Swiss trauma registry in 2008, which contains the largest database on trauma activity nationwide. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data from consecutively admitted shock room patients from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. Shock room admission is based on physiology and mechanism of injury, assessed by prehospital physicians. Management follows a surgeon-led multidisciplinary approach. Injuries are coded by Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM) certified coders. RESULTS: Over the 5 years, 1,599 trauma patients were admitted, predominantly males with a median age of 41.4 years and median injury severity score (ISS) of 13. Rate of ISS >15 was 42%. Principal mechanisms of injury were road traffic (40.4%) and falls (34.4%), with 91.5% blunt trauma. Principal patterns were brain (64.4%), chest (59.8%) and extremity/pelvic girdle (52.9%) injuries. Severe (abbreviated injury scale [AIS] score ≥ 3) orthopaedic injuries, defined as extremity and spine injuries together, accounted for 67.1%. Overall, 29.1% underwent immediate intervention, mainly by orthopaedics (27.3%), neurosurgeons (26.3 %) and visceral surgeons (13.9%); 43.8% underwent a surgical intervention within the first 24 hours and 59.1% during their hospitalisation. In-hospital mortality for patients with ISS >15 was 26.2%. CONCLUSION: This is the first 5-year report on trauma in Switzerland. Trauma workload was similar to other European countries. Despite high levels of healthcare, mortality exceeds published rates by >50%. Regardless of the importance of a multidisciplinary approach, trauma remains a surgical disease and needs dedicated surgical resources.

Recommendations for raloxifene use in daily clinical practice in the Swiss setting.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Raloxifene is the first selective estrogen receptor modulator that has been approved for the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Europe and in the US. Although raloxifene reduces the risk of invasive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in postmenopausal women at high risk for invasive breast cancer, it is approved in that indication in the US but not in the EU. The aim was to characterize the clinical profiles of postmenopausal women expected to benefit most from therapy with raloxifene based on published scientific evidence to date. METHODS: Key individual patient characteristics relevant to the prescription of raloxifene in daily practice were defined by a board of Swiss experts in the fields of menopause and metabolic bone diseases and linked to published scientific evidence. Consensus was reached about translating these insights into daily practice. RESULTS: Through estrogen agonistic effects on bone, raloxifene reduces biochemical markers of bone turnover to premenopausal levels, increases bone mineral density (BMD) at the lumbar spine, proximal femur, and total body, and reduces vertebral fracture risk in women with osteopenia or osteoporosis with and without prevalent vertebral fracture. Through estrogen antagonistic effects on breast tissue, raloxifene reduces the risk of invasive estrogen-receptor positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis and in postmenopausal women at high risk for invasive breast cancer. Finally, raloxifene increases the incidence of hot flushes, the risk of venous thromboembolic events, and the risk of fatal stroke in postmenopausal women at increased risk for coronary heart disease. Postmenopausal women in whom the use of raloxifene is considered can be categorized in a 2 × 2 matrix reflecting their bone status (osteopenic or osteoporotic based on their BMD T-score by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) and their breast cancer risk (low or high based on the modified Gail model). Women at high risk of breast cancer should be considered for treatment with raloxifene. CONCLUSION: Postmenopausal women between 50 and 70 years of age without climacteric symptoms with either osteopenia or osteoporosis should be evaluated with regard to their breast cancer risk and considered for treatment with raloxifene within the framework of its contraindications and precautions.

Managing the crises : How do Swiss municipalities react to the crisis and what explains the differences ?

Swiss municipalities are to an import ant extent responsible for their own resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property tax from individuals and enterprises, their budgets are likely to be directly affected by the actual crisis of the financial sector and the economy. This paper investigates how the municipalities perceive this threat and how they reacted to it or plan to do so. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked the local secretaries which measures they launch in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase of welfare spending. Do the municipalities rather rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or do they try to avoid further deficits by austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? The paper shows that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expect to be strongly hit by the crisis. Their reactions, however, do not reveal the clear patterns theory lets to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities take measures from both theories. The strongest explaining factor whether municipalities react is the affectedness by the crisis followed by the fact that the municipality belongs to the French speaking part of the country. Size also has an effect whereas the strength of the Social Democrats is negligible. More difficult is it, to explain what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take.

Homicide-suicide cases in Switzerland and their impact on the Swiss Weapon Law.

Homicide followed by the suicide of the offender is a well-known phenomenon. In most cases, it takes place in the context of the so-called "family tragedies." A recent series of such family tragedies in Switzerland prompted an intensive debate in the media and the Swiss government concerning the Swiss Weapon Law, in particular the requirement to keep personal army weapons at home. The present study of Homicide-Suicide cases in Switzerland, thus focuses on the role played by guns, especially military weapons, in such crimes. We investigated retrospectively 75 cases of Homicide-Suicide, comprising 172 individuals and spanning a period of 23 years in western and central Switzerland. Our results show that if guns were used in 76% of the cases, army weapons were the cause of death in 25% of the total. In 28% of the deaths caused by a gunshot, the exact type of the gun and its origin could not be determined. Thus, the majority of Homicide-Suicide cases in Switzerland involve the use of guns. The exact percentage of cases were military weapons were involved could not be defined. In our opinion, a stricter weapons law, restricting access to firearms, would be a factor of prevention of Homicide- Suicide cases in Switzerland.

Early co-occurrence of a neurologic-psychiatric disease pattern in Niemann-Pick type C disease: a retrospective Swiss cohort study.

BackgroundNiemann-Pick disease type C (NP-C) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of lysosomal cholesterol transport. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to critically analyze the onset and time course of symptoms, and the clinical diagnostic work-up in the Swiss NP-C cohort.MethodsClinical, biochemical and genetic data were assessed for 14 patients derived from 9 families diagnosed with NP-C between 1994 and 2013. We retrospectively evaluated diagnostic delays and period prevalence rates for neurological, psychiatric and visceral symptoms associated with NP-C disease. The NP-C suspicion index was calculated for the time of neurological disease onset and the time of diagnosis.ResultsThe shortest median diagnostic delay was noted for vertical supranuclear gaze palsy (2y). Ataxia, dysarthria, dysphagia, spasticity, cataplexy, seizures and cognitive decline displayed similar median diagnostic delays (4¿5y). The longest median diagnostic delay was associated with hepatosplenomegaly (15y). Highest period prevalence rates were noted for ataxia, dysarthria, vertical supranuclear gaze palsy and cognitive decline. The NP-C suspicion index revealed a median score of 81 points in nine patients at the time of neurological disease onset which is highly suspicious for NP-C disease. At the time of diagnosis, the score increased to 206 points.ConclusionA neurologic-psychiatric disease pattern represents the most characteristic clinical manifestation of NP-C and occurs early in the disease course. Visceral manifestation such as isolated hepatosplenomegaly often fails recognition and thus highlights the importance of a work-up for lysosomal storage disorders. The NP-C suspicion index emphasizes the importance of a multisystem evaluation, but seems to be weak in monosymptomatic and infantile NP-C patients.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Swiss population

Introduction: The latest data on prevalence of overweight (OW) and obesity (OB) in the general Swiss resident population rely on the Swiss Health Survey (SHS), a telephonic interview performed in 2007. However, body mass index (BMI) is underestimated when self-reported, leading to a misclassification of up to 60% of obese subjects. The last survey with measured BMI performed in the 3 linguistic regions of Switzerland dates back to 1977. We explored the regional prevalences of OW and OB by measured BMI in the general Swiss resident population. Methods: Cross-sectional population-based survey in the 3 linguistic regions of Switzerland in 2010-2011. Data on 1471 participants aged 15-95 years (712 men, 759 women) were available for the analysis. BMI was calculated from measured height and weight and categorized into 3 groups according to WHO classification: lean (<25 kg/m2), overweight (25-30 kg/m2) and obese (>= 30 kg/m2). Data on medication, smoking, education, physical activity and dietary habitudes were collected using a questionnaire. Results: The overall prevalence of OW and OB was 32.1% and 13.9%, respectively. OB prevalence was similar across the 3 linguistic regions (13.5% in German-, 15.6% in French- and 12.0% in Italian-speaking Switzerland, p = 0.40), unlike OW prevalence, which significantly differed in unadjusted analyses (35.4%, 29.1% and 25.4%, respectively, p = 0.005). In analyses including age, sex, smoking, physical activity and education as covariates, living in the Italian-speaking region was associated neither with BMI (linear regression) nor with OW or OB (logistic regressions) . Age (beta coefficient [SE]: 0.064[0.006] kg/m2 per year, p <0.001) and sex (-1.76 [0.23] kg/m2 in women, p <0.001) were significantly associated with BMI. Conclusions: Overweight and obesity affect nearly half of the Swiss population aged >15 years. We observed no significant differences across regions once we accounted for age, sex, education and lifestyle. Public health interventions addressing modifiable behavioral factors to reduce overweight and obesity in Switzerland can be expected to have substantial benefits.

Retention half times in the skeleton of plutonium and Sr-90 from above-ground nuclear tests: A retrospective study of the Swiss population

Plutonium and Sr-90 are considered to be among the most radiotoxic nuclides produced by the nuclear fission process. In spite of numerous studies on mammals and humans there is still no general agreement on the retention half time of both radionuclides in the skeleton in the general population. Here we determined plutonium and Sr-90 in human vertebrae in individuals deceased between 1960 and 2004 in Switzerland. Plutonium was measured by sensitive SF-ICP-MS techniques and Sr-90 by radiometric methods. We compared our results to the ones obtained for other environmental compartments to reveal the retention half time of NBT fallout Pu-239 and Sr-90 in trabecular bones of the Swiss population. Results show that plutonium has a retention half time of 40 +/- 14 years. In contrast Sr-90 has a shorter retention half time of 13.5 +/- 1.0 years. Moreover Sr-90 retention half time in vertebrae is shown to be linked to the retention half time in food and other environmental compartments. These findings demonstrate that the renewal of the vertebrae through calcium homeostatic control is faster for Sr-90 excretion than for plutonium excretion. The precise determination of the retention half time of plutonium in the skeleton will improve the biokinetic model of plutonium metabolism in humans. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atherogenic dyslipidemia in HIV-infected individuals treated with protease inhibitors. The Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Administration of protease inhibitors (PIs) to HIV-infected individuals has been associated with hyperlipidemia. In this study, we characterized the lipoprotein profile in subjects receiving ritonavir, indinavir, or nelfinavir, alone or in combination with saquinavir. METHODS AND RESULTS: Plasma lipoprotein levels were quantified in 93 HIV-infected adults receiving PIs. Comparison was done with pretreatment values and with 28 nonPI-treated HIV-infected subjects. An elevation in plasma cholesterol levels was observed in all PI-treated groups but was more pronounced for ritonavir (2.0+/-0.3 mmol/L [mean+/-SEM], n=46, versus 0.1+/-0.2 mmol/L in nonPI treated group, P<0.001) than for indinavir (0.8+/-0.2 mmol/L, n=26, P=0.03) or nelfinavir (1.2+/-0.2 mmol/L, n=21, P=0.01). Administration of ritonavir, but not indinavir or nelfinavir, was associated with a marked elevation in plasma triglyceride levels (1.83+/-0.46 mmol/L, P=0.002). Plasma HDL-cholesterol levels remained unchanged. Combination of ritonavir or nelfinavir with saquinavir did not further elevate plasma lipid levels. A 48% increase in plasma levels of lipoprotein(a) was detected in PI-treated subjects with pretreatment Lp(a) values >20 mg/dL. Similar changes in plasma lipid levels were observed in 6 children receiving ritonavir. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of PIs to HIV-infected individuals is associated with a marked, compound-specific dyslipidemia. The risk of pancreatitis and premature atherosclerosis due to PI-associated dyslipidemia remains to be established.

Viability of brown trout embryos positively linked to melanin-based but negatively to carotenoid-based colours of their fathers.

'Good-genes' models of sexual selection predict significant additive genetic variation for fitness-correlated traits within populations to be revealed by phenotypic traits. To test this prediction, we sampled brown trout (Salmo trutta) from their natural spawning place, analysed their carotenoid-based red and melanin-based dark skin colours and tested whether these colours can be used to predict offspring viability. We produced half-sib families by in vitro fertilization, reared the resulting embryos under standardized conditions, released the hatchlings into a streamlet and identified the surviving juveniles 20 months later with microsatellite markers. Embryo viability was revealed by the sires' dark pigmentation: darker males sired more viable offspring. However, the sires' red coloration correlated negatively with embryo survival. Our study demonstrates that genetic variation for fitness-correlated traits is revealed by male colour traits in our study population, but contrary to predictions from other studies, intense red colours do not signal good genes.