Homeostatic and circadian contribution to EEG and molecular state variables of sleep regulation.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Besides their well-established role in circadian rhythms, our findings that the forebrain expression of the clock-genes Per2 and Dbp increases and decreases, respectively, in relation to time spent awake suggest they also play a role in the homeostatic aspect of sleep regulation. Here, we determined whether time of day modulates the effects of elevated sleep pressure on clock-gene expression. Time of day effects were assessed also for recognized electrophysiological (EEG delta power) and molecular (Homer1a) markers of sleep homeostasis. DESIGN: EEG and qPCR data were obtained for baseline and recovery from 6-h sleep deprivation starting at ZT0, -6, -12, or -18. SETTING: Mouse sleep laboratory. PARTICIPANTS: Male mice. INTERVENTIONS: Sleep deprivation. RESULTS: The sleep-deprivation induced changes in Per2 and Dbp expression importantly varied with time of day, such that Per2 could even decrease during sleep deprivations occurring at the decreasing phase in baseline. Dbp showed similar, albeit opposite dynamics. These unexpected results could be reliably predicted assuming that these transcripts behave according to a driven damped harmonic oscillator. As expected, the sleep-wake distribution accounted for a large degree of the changes in EEG delta power and Homer1a. Nevertheless, the sleep deprivation-induced increase in delta power varied also with time of day with higher than expected levels when recovery sleep started at dark onset. CONCLUSIONS: Per2 and delta power are widely used as exclusive state variables of the circadian and homeostatic process, respectively. Our findings demonstrate a considerable cross-talk between these two processes. As Per2 in the brain responds to both sleep loss and time of day, this molecule is well positioned to keep track of and to anticipate homeostatic sleep need. CITATION: Curie T; Mongrain V; Dorsaz S; Mang GM; Emmenegger Y; Franken P. Homeostatic and circadian contribution to EEG and molecular state variables of sleep regulation. SLEEP 2013;36(3):311-323.

A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.

In studies of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the time scale of primary interest is the time since infection. Unfortunately, this time is very often unknown for HIV infection and using the follow-up time instead of the time since infection is likely to provide biased results because of onset confounding. Laboratory markers such as the CD4 T-cell count carry important information concerning disease progression and can be used to predict the unknown date of infection. Previous work on this topic has made use of only one CD4 measurement or based the imputation on incident patients only. However, because of considerable intrinsic variability in CD4 levels and because incident cases are different from prevalent cases, back calculation based on only one CD4 determination per person or on characteristics of the incident sub-cohort may provide unreliable results. Therefore, we propose a methodology based on the repeated individual CD4 T-cells marker measurements that use both incident and prevalent cases to impute the unknown date of infection. Our approach uses joint modelling of the time since infection, the CD4 time path and the drop-out process. This methodology has been applied to estimate the CD4 slope and impute the unknown date of infection in HIV patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A procedure based on the comparison of different slope estimates is proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the imputation. Results of simulation studies indicated that the imputation procedure worked well, despite the intrinsic high volatility of the CD4 marker.

Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: a logical approach fro interpreting the evidence

Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

Delay in diagnosis of eosinophilic esophagitis increases risk for stricture formation in a time-dependent manner.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Development of strictures is a major concern for patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). At diagnosis, EoE can present with an inflammatory phenotype (characterized by whitish exudates, furrows, and edema), a stricturing phenotype (characterized by rings and stenosis), or a combination of these. Little is known about progression of stricture formation; we evaluated stricture development over time in the absence of treatment and investigated risk factors for stricture formation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study using the Swiss EoE Database, collecting data on 200 patients with symptomatic EoE (153 men; mean age at diagnosis, 39 ± 15 years old). Stricture severity was graded based on the degree of difficulty associated with passing of the standard adult endoscope. RESULTS: The median delay in diagnosis of EoE was 6 years (interquartile range, 2-12 years). With increasing duration of delay in diagnosis, the prevalence of fibrotic features of EoE, based on endoscopy, increased from 46.5% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 87.5% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P = .020). Similarly, the prevalence of esophageal strictures increased with duration of diagnostic delay, from 17.2% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 70.8% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P < .001). Diagnostic delay was the only risk factor for strictures at the time of EoE diagnosis (odds ratio = 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.040-1.122; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of esophageal strictures correlates with the duration of untreated disease. These findings indicate the need to minimize delay in diagnosis of EoE.

Invasion and eradication of a competitively superior species in heterogeneous landscapes

The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant.