204 resultados para probability of detection
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Purpose: To evaluate the safety-efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) as a second treatment for classical trigeminal neuralgia (CTN), and the influence of prior microvascular decompression (MVD). Methods: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients have been operated with GKRS for ITN and prospectively evaluated in Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. Among these, 54 patients had a previous history of MVD. Radiosurgery using a Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed on the basis of on both MR and CT targeting. A single 4 mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range 3.9-11.9) anteriorly to the emergence of the nerve (retrogasserian target). A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90) was delivered. Here, the 45 patients with previous MVD and a follow-up longer than one year are evaluated (the patients with megadolichobasilar artery compression and multiple sclerosis were excluded). Results: The median age in this series was 56.75 years (range 28.09-82.39). The median follow-up period was 39.48 months (range 14.10-144.65). All the patients had a past history of surgery, with at least one previous failed MVD, but also radiofrequency lesion (RFL) in 16 patients (35.6%), balloon microcompression in 7 (15.6%) and glycerol rhizotomy in 1 (2.2%). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free after GKS within a median time of 14 days (range 0, 180). Patients from this group had less probability of being pain free compared to our global population of essential trigeminal neuralgia without previous MVD history (p=0.010, hazard ratio of 0.64). Their probability of remaining pain free at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1% and 44.3%, respectively. Twelve patients (34.3%) initially pain free experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 31.21 months (range 3.40-89.93). The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 8 months (range 8-8). Conclusions: Retrogasserian GKS proofed to be safe and effective on the long-term basis even after failed previous MVD. Even if the initial result of pain free was only 77.8%, the toxicity was low with only 9.1% hypoesthesia. No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. The probability of maintaining pain relief in the long-term was of 44.3% at 10 years.
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OBJECTIVES: The use of tenofovir is highly associated with the emergence of mutation K65R, which confers broad resistance to nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), especially when tenofovir is combined with other NRTIs also selecting for K65R. Although recent HIV-1 treatment guidelines discouraging these combinations resulted in reduced K65R selection with tenofovir, updated information on the impact of currently recommended regimens on the population selection rate of K65R is presently lacking. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated changes over time in the selection rate of resistance mutation K65R in a large population of 2736 HIV-1-infected patients failing combination antiretroviral treatment between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS: The K65R resistance mutation was detected in 144 patients, a prevalence of 5.3%. A large majority of observed K65R cases were explained by the use of tenofovir, reflecting its wide use in clinical practice. However, changing patterns over time in NRTIs accompanying tenofovir resulted in a persistent decreasing probability of K65R selection by tenofovir-based therapy. The currently recommended NRTI combination tenofovir/emtricitabine was associated with a low probability of K65R emergence. For any given dual NRTI combination including tenofovir, higher selection rates of K65R were consistently observed with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor than with a protease inhibitor as the third agent. DISCUSSION: Our finding of a stable time trend of K65R despite elevated use of tenofovir illustrates increased potency of current HIV-1 therapy including tenofovir.
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Inbreeding depression is one of the hypotheses explaining the maintenance of females within gynodioecious plant populations. However, the measurement of fitness components in selfed and outcrossed progeny depends on life-cycle stage and the history of inbreeding. Comparative data indicate that strong inbreeding depression is more likely to occur at later life-cycle stages. We used hermaphrodite individuals of Silene vulgaris originating from three populations located in different valleys in the Swiss Alps to investigate the effect of two generations of self- and cross-fertilization on fitness components among successive stages of the life cycle in a glasshouse experiment. We detected significant inbreeding depression for most life-cycle stages including: the number of viable and aborted seeds per fruit, probability of germination, above ground biomass, probability of flowering, number of flowers per plant, flower size and pollen viability. Overall, the intensity of inbreeding depression increased among successive stages of the life cycle and cumulative inbreeding depression was significantly stronger in the first generation (delta approximately 0.5) compared with the second generation (delta approximately 0.35). We found no evidence for synergistic epistasis in our experiment. Our finding of more intense inbreeding depression during later stages of the life cycle may help to explain the maintenance of females in gynodioecious populations of S. vulgaris because purging of genetic load is less likely to occur.
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It is not unusual for patients with "rare" conditions, such as skeletal dysplasias, to remain undiagnosed until adulthood. In such cases, a pregnancy may unexpectedly reveal hidden problems and special needs. A 28 year old primigravida was referred to us at 17 weeks for counselling with an undiagnosed skeletal dysplasia with specific skeletal anomalies suggesting the collagen 2 disorder, spondyloperipheral dysplasia (SPD; MIM 156550).She was counselled about the probability of dominant inheritance and was offered a prenatal diagnosis by sonography. US examination at 17, 18 and 20 weeks revealed fetal macrocephaly, a narrow thorax, and shortening and bowing of long bones. The parents elected to continue the pregnancy. At birth the baby showed severe respiratory distress for four weeks which then resolved. Mutation analysis of both mother and child revealed a hitherto undescribed heterozygous nonsense mutation in the C-propeptide coding region of COL2A1 confirming the diagnosis of SPD while reinforcing the genotype-phenotype correlations between C-propeptide COL2A1 mutations and the SPD-Torrance spectrum. This case demonstrates the importance of a correct diagnosis even in adulthood, enabling individuals affected by rare conditions to be made aware about recurrence and pregnancy-associated risks, and potential complications in the newborn.
Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.
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Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.
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Background: The objective of this study was to determine if mental health and substance use diagnoses were equally detected in frequent users (FUs) compared to infrequent users (IUs) of emergency departments (EDs). Methods: In a sample of 399 adult patients (>= 18 years old) admitted to a teaching hospital ED, we compared the mental health and substance use disorders diagnoses established clinically and consigned in the medical files by the ED physicians to data obtained in face-to-face research interviews using the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD) and the Alcohol, Smoking and Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST). Between November 2009 and June 2010, 226 FUs (>4 visits within a year) who attended the ED were included, and 173 IUs (<= 4 visits within a year) were randomly selected from a pool of identified patients to comprise the comparison group. Results: For mental health disorders identified by the PRIME-MD, FUs were more likely than IUs to have an anxiety (34 vs. 16%, Chi2(1) = 16.74, p <0.001), depressive (47 vs. 25%, Chi2(1) = 19.11, p <0.001) or posttraumatic stress (PTSD) disorder (11 vs. 5%, Chi2(1) = 4.87, p = 0.027). Only 3/76 FUs (4%) with an anxiety disorder, 16/104 FUs (15%) with a depressive disorder and none of the 24 FUs with PTSD were detected by the ED medical staff. None of the 27 IUs with an anxiety disorder, 6/43 IUs (14%) with a depressive disorder and none of the 8 IUs with PTSD were detected. For substance use disorders identified by the ASSIST, FUs were more at risk than IUs for alcohol (24 vs. 7%, Chi2(1) = 21.12, p <0.001) and drug abuse/dependence (36 vs. 25%, Chi2(1) = 5.52, p = 0.019). Of the FUs, 14/54 (26%) using alcohol and 8/81 (10%) using drugs were detected by the ED physicians. Of the IUs, 5/12 (41%) using alcohol and none of the 43 using drugs were detected. Overall, there was no significant difference in the rate of detection of mental health and substance use disorders between FUs and IUs (Fisher's Exact Test: anxiety, p = 0.567; depression, p = 1.000; PTSD, p = 1.000; alcohol, p = 0.517; and drugs, p = 0.053). Conclusions: While the prevalence of mental health and substance use disorders was higher among FUs, the rates of detection were not significantly different for FUs vs. IUs. However, it may be that drug disorders among FUs were more likely to be detected.
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Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.
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Estimating the time since the last discharge of firearms and/or spent cartridges may be a useful piece of information in forensic firearm-related cases. The current approach consists of studying the diffusion of selected volatile organic compounds (such as naphthalene) released during the shooting using solid phase micro-extraction (SPME). However, this technique works poorly on handgun car-tridges because the extracted quantities quickly fall below the limit of detection. In order to find more effective solutions and further investigate the aging of organic gunshot residue after the discharge of handgun cartridges, an extensive study was carried out in this work using a novel approach based on high capacity headspace sorptive extraction (HSSE). By adopting this technique, for the first time 51 gunshot residue (GSR) volatile organic compounds could be simultaneously detected from fired handgun cartridge cases. Application to aged specimens showed that many of those compounds presented significant and complementary aging profiles. Compound-to-compound ratios were also tested and proved to be beneficial both in reducing the variability of the aging curves and in enlarging the time window useful in a forensic casework perspective. The obtained results were thus particularly promising for the development of a new complete forensic dating methodology.
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Background: To assess the early clinical outcomes and toxicities in patients treated with high precision radiation therapy (RT) consisting of helical tomotherapy (HT) or intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for anal cancer. Materials and Methods: Since March 2006, 30 patients with stage I-IIIB anal squamous-cell carcinoma were treated curatively by IMRT or HT alone (n = 2) or by concomitant chemotherapy and IMRT or HT (n = 28). Median age was 59 years (range, 36−83 years) and the female/male ratio was 2.3 (21/9). Primary tumor site was anal canal, anal margin, or both in 26, 1, and 3 patients, respectively. Anal tumor, pelvic and inguinal nodes were irradiated with a median dose of 36 Gy using HT, or 5- or 7-field IMRT in 18 and 12 patients, respectively; After a planned gap of 1−2 weeks (median 1 week), a median boost dose of 23.4 Gwas delivered to the tumor and/or involved nodes using 3DRT (n = 24) or HT/IMRT (n = 6). The total delivered dose ranged between 59.4 and 64.8 Gy (median, 59.4 Gy). Concomitant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C alone (n = 1), mitomycin C and 5-fluorouracil (n = 17) or capecitabin (n = 10) in 28 patients. Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0 scale was used to score acute and late toxicities. Results: All but one patient, who developed progressive local and distant disease at the end of RT, achieved a complete response. Twelve months following RT, one patient had a recurrence at the primary tumor site, salvaged with brachytherapy. After a median follow-up of 7.5 months (range, 1−35 months), no deaths were observed. The 2-year actuarial locoregional control and probability of disease control without colostomy rates were 82% and 79%, respectively. RT was well tolerated without any unplanned treatment interruptions. Grade 1 or 2 acute adverse events consisted of skin toxicity in 8 and 22 patients, diarrhea in 18 and 3 patients, and cystitis in 9 and 2 patients; respectively. Only one patient developed grade 3 mucosal necrosis at the end of the treatment, requiring diverting colostomy. No difference in terms of acute toxicity was observed between patients treated with HT or IMRT. None of the 22 patients with a follow-up of more than 3 months developed grade 3 or more late toxicity. Conclusions: Our preliminary results suggest that HT or IMRT combined with concomitant chemotherapy for anal cancer is effective, and associated with favorable rates of toxicity compared with historical series. Further follow-up is warranted to assess late toxicity.
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This study examines trends and geographical differences in total and live birth prevalence of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 with regard to increasing maternal age and prenatal diagnosis in Europe. Twenty-one population-based EUROCAT registries covering 6.1 million births between 1990 and 2009 participated. Trisomy cases included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. We present correction to 20 weeks gestational age (ie, correcting early terminations for the probability of fetal survival to 20 weeks) to allow for artefactual screening-related differences in total prevalence. Poisson regression was used. The proportion of births in the population to mothers aged 35+ years in the participating registries increased from 13% in 1990 to 19% in 2009. Total prevalence per 10 000 births was 22.0 (95% CI 21.7-22.4) for trisomy 21, 5.0 (95% CI 4.8-5.1) for trisomy 18 and 2.0 (95% CI 1.9-2.2) for trisomy 13; live birth prevalence was 11.2 (95% CI 10.9-11.5) for trisomy 21, 1.04 (95% CI 0.96-1.12) for trisomy 18 and 0.48 (95% CI 0.43-0.54) for trisomy 13. There was an increase in total and total corrected prevalence of all three trisomies over time, mainly explained by increasing maternal age. Live birth prevalence remained stable over time. For trisomy 21, there was a three-fold variation in live birth prevalence between countries. The rise in maternal age has led to an increase in the number of trisomy-affected pregnancies in Europe. Live birth prevalence has remained stable overall. Differences in prenatal screening and termination between countries lead to wide variation in live birth prevalence.
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The neuropsychological records of 56 patients operated for clipping were studied. Almost every patient remained autonomous and without invalidating motor defect. The present study was aimed at specifying the type and frequency of neuropsychological sequelae and, to a lesser extent, the role of various pathophysiological factors. A main concern was to examine to what extent and at what post-operative interval the neuropsychological assessment can predict the intellectual and socioprofessional outcome of each individual patient. The neuropsychological assessment performed beyond the acute phase showed evidence of intellectual sequelae in about two thirds of the patients. Only one case of permanent anterograde amnesia was observed, probably due to unavoidable inclusion of a hypothalamic artery in the clip during surgery. Transient anterograde amnesia and confabulations were occasionally observed, generally for less than three weeks. A common finding was impaired performance on memory and/or executive tests. In a minority of patients, language disorders, visuoperceptive and visuoconstructive disabilities were found, probably in relation with hemodynamic changes at distance from the aneurysm. Global impairment of intellectual function was not uncommon in the acute post-operative phase but it evolved in most cases towards a more selective impairment, for instance restricted to executive and memory functions, in the chronic phase. The neuropsychological investigation carried out 4 to 15 weeks post-operatively provided satisfactory information about possible long-lasting intellectual disturbances and professional resumption. In particular, persistent global intellectual impairment, persistent amnesia and confabulations 4-15 weeks post-operative were associated with cessation of professional activity; executive and memory impairment, behavioral disturbances such as those encountered in patients with frontal lobe damage were associated with a decreased probability of full-time employment. Pre- and post-operative angiography were not good predictors of long-term cognitive outcome: normal angiography was not necessarily followed by normal neuropsychological outcome, conversely abnormal angiography could be found together with normal neuropsychological outcome. By contrast, there was a relationship between left-lateralised abnormalities on post-operative angiography and occurrence of language disorders; similarly, there was a relationship between side of craniotomy and type of deficits, that is language disorders versus visuoperceptive-visuoconstructive impairments.
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Background: Urinary human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration is routinely measured in all anti-doping laboratories to exclude the misuse of recombinant or urinary hCG preparations. In this study, extended validation of two commercial immunoassays for hCG measurements in urine was performed. Both tests were initially designed for hCG determination in human serum/plasma. Methods: Access (R) and Elecsys (R) 1010 are two automated immunoanalysers for central laboratories. The limits of detection and quantification, as well as intra-laboratory and inter-technique correlation, precision, and accuracy, were determined. Stability studies of hCG in urine following freezing and thawing cycles (n = 3) as well as storage conditions at room temperature, 4 degrees C and 20 degrees C, were performed. Results: Statistical evaluation of hCG concentrations in male urine samples (n = 2429) measured with the Elecsys (R) 1010 system enabled us to draw a skewed frequency histogram and establish a far outside value equal to 2.3 IU/L. This decision limit corresponds to the concentration at which a sportsman will be considered positive for hCG. Intra-assay precision for the Access (R) analyser was less than 4.0 A, whereas the inter-assay precision was closer to 4.5 % (concentrations of the official external controls contained between 5.5 and 195.0 IU/L). Intra and inter-assay precision for the Elecsys (R) 1010 analyser was slightly better. A good inter-technique correlation was obtained when measuring various urine samples (male and female). No urinary hCG loss was observed after two freeze/thaw cycles. On the other hand, time and inappropriate storage conditions, such as temperatures above 10 degrees C for more than 5 days, can deteriorate urinary hCG. Conclusions: Both analysers showed acceptable performances and are suitable for screening urine for anti-doping analyses. Each laboratory should validate and establish its own reference values because hCG concentrations measured in urine can be different from one immunoassay to another. The time delay between urine collection and analysis should be reduced as much as possible, and urine samples should be transported in optimal conditions to avoid a loss of hCG immunoreactivity.
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An increase of urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) and a decrease of tissue-type PA (tPA) have been associated with the transition from normal to adenomatous colorectal mucosa. Serial sections from 25 adenomas were used to identify PA-related caseinolytic activities by in situ zymography, blocking selectively uPA or tPA. The distribution of uPA, tPA, and type 1 PA inhibitor mRNAs was investigated by nonradioactive in situ hybridization, and the receptor for uPA was detected by immunostaining. Low- and high-grade epithelial cell dysplasia was mapped histologically. Results show that 23 of 25 adenomas expressed uPA-related lytic activity located predominantly in the periphery whereas tPA-related activity was mainly in central areas of adenomas. In 15 of 25 adenomas, uPA mRNA was expressed in stromal cells clustered in foci that coincided with areas of uPA lytic activity. The probability of finding uPA mRNA-reactive cells was significantly higher in areas with high-grade epithelial dysplasia. uPA receptor was mainly stromal and expressed at the periphery. Type 1 PA inhibitor mRNA cellular expression was diffuse in the stroma, in endothelial cells, and in a subpopulation of alpha-smooth muscle cell actin-reactive cells. These results show that a stromal up-regulation of the uPA/plasmin system is associated with foci of severe dysplasia in a subset of colorectal adenomas.
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The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.
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The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ~115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.