Infrequent transmission of HIV-1 drug-resistant variants.

Transmission of drug-resistant variants is influenced by several factors, including the prevalence of drug resistance in the population of HIV-1-infected patients, HIV-1 RNA levels and transmission by recently infected patients. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the transmission of drug-resistant variants, we have defined the population of potential transmitters and compared their resistance profiles to those of newly infected patients. Sequencing of pol gene was performed in 220 recently infected patients and in 373 chronically infected patients with HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/ml. Minimal and maximal drug-resistance profiles of potential transmitters were estimated by weighting resistance profiles of chronically infected patients with estimates of the Swiss HIV-1-infected population, the prevalence of exposure to antiviral drugs and the proportion of infections attributed to primary HIV infections. The drug-resistance prevalence in recently infected patients was 10.5% (one class drug resistance: 9.1%; two classes: 1.4%; three classes: 0%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed significant clustering for 30% of recent infections. The drug-resistance prevalence in chronically infected patients was 72.4% (one class: 29%; two classes: 27.6%; three classes: 15.8%). After adjustment, the risk of transmission relative to wild-type was reduced both for one class drug resistance (minimal and maximal estimates: odds ratio: 0.39, P<0.001; and odds ratio: 0.55, P=0.011, respectively), and for two to three class drug resistance (odds ratios: 0.05 and 0.07, respectively, P<0.001). Neither sexual behaviour nor HIV-1 RNA levels explained the low transmission of drug-resistant variants. These data suggest that drug-resistant variants and in particular multidrug-resistant variants have a substantially reduced transmission capacity.

The database search problem: a question of rational decision making

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

Compliance to dietary advice directed towards increasing the carbohydrate to fat ratio of the everyday diet.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects, on food intake, body weight and body composition, of compliance to advice aiming at increasing the carbohydrate to fat ratio of the everyday diet without imposing voluntary restriction on the amount of food consumed. DESIGN: Eight moderately overweight women (body mass index > 27 kg/m2, relative body fat mass > 30%) received dietary advice during a 2 month period. Additionally, each evening the subjects had to consume a meal artificially enriched with 13C-glucose in order to assess their compliance from the 13CO2 enrichment in expired air. MEASUREMENTS: Dietary intakes, body weight, body composition and individual compliance. RESULTS: The energy derived from fat decreased from 44 +/- 1% to 31 +/- 1% and the proportion of carbohydrate increased from 38 +/- 2% to 50 +/- 1%, whereas the absolute carbohydrate intake remained constant (182 +/- 18 g/d). Energy intake decreased by 1569 +/- 520 kJ/d. There was a net loss of fat mass (1.7 +/- 0.7 kg, P = 0.016) with fat free mass maintenance. Dietary compliance ranged from 20 to 93% (mean: 60 +/- 8%) and was positively correlated to the loss of body fat mass. CONCLUSION: Advice aiming at increasing diet's carbohydrate to fat ratio induces a loss of fat mass with fat-free mass maintenance.

Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Psychological distress in adult survivors of childhood cancer: the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the degree of psychological distress in adult childhood cancer survivors in Switzerland and to characterize survivors with significant distress. METHODS: Childhood cancer survivors who were age younger than 16 years when diagnosed between 1976 and 2003, had survived more than 5 years, and were currently age 20 years or older received a postal questionnaire. Psychological distress was assessed using the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI). Raw scores were transformed into T scores according to the German norm sample, and the proportion of participants being at increased risk for psychological distress was calculated (case rule: T > or = 63). t tests and univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used for statistical analyses. RESULTS: One thousand seventy-six survivors (63.% of eligible survivors, 71.9% of contacted survivors) returned the questionnaire, 987 with complete data on BSI. Comparison with the norm populations showed lower T scores (T < 50) in the Global Severity Index (GSI; T = 46.2), somatization (T = 47.6), obsessive-compulsive tendencies (T = 46.9), and anxiety (T = 48.4). However, more childhood cancer survivors (especially women) had increased distress for GSI (14.4%), interpersonal sensitivity (16.5%), depression (13.4%), aggression (16.9%), and psychotic tendencies (15.6%) than the expected 10% from the norm population. Caseness was associated with female sex, being a single child, older age at study, and self-reported late effects, especially psychological problems. CONCLUSION: Results show that childhood cancer survivors, on average, have less psychological distress than a norm population but that the proportion of survivors at risk for high psychological distress is disproportionally large. Monitoring psychological distress in childhood cancer survivors may be desirable during routine follow-up, and psychological support should be offered as needed.

New diagnoses of dementia among older patients admitted to postacute care.

Objectives: To determine the prevalence of dementia and the proportion of undiagnosed dementia in elderly patients admitted to postacute care, and to identify patients' characteristics associated with undiagnosed dementia. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Academic postacute rehabilitation facility in Lausanne, Switzerland. Participants: Patients (N = 1764) aged 70 years and older. Measurements: Data on socio-demographic, medical, functional, and affective status were collected upon admission. Data on cognitive performance (Mini-Mental State Exam [MMSE]), and cognition-related discharge diagnoses were abstracted through a structured review of discharge summaries. Results: Overall, 24.1% (425/1764) patients had a diagnosis of dementia, most frequently secondary to Alzheimer's disease (260/425, 61.2%). Among dementia cases, 70.8% (301/425) were newly diagnosed during postacute stay. This proportion was lower among patients referred from internal medicine than from orthopedic/surgery services (65.8% versus 74.8%, P = .042). Compared to patients with already diagnosed dementia, those newly diagnosed were older, lived alone more frequently, and had better functional status and MMSE score at admission (all P < .05). In multivariate analysis, previously undetected dementia remained associated with older age (OR = 2.4 for age 85 years and older, 95% CI 1.5-4.0, P = .001) and normal MMSE at admission (OR = 5.9, 95% CI 2.7-12.7, P < .001). Conclusion: Dementia was present in almost a fourth of elderly patients referred to postacute care, but was diagnosed in less than a third before admission. Oldest old patients appear especially at risk for underrecognition. These results emphasize the high diagnostic yield of systematic cognitive assessment in the postacute care setting to improve these patients' management and quality of life.

Surgical outcomes of deep sclerectomy versus Baerveldt aqueous shunt implantation following initial failed deep sclerectomy

Purpose: To examine the efficacy and safety of repeat deep sclerectomy (DS) versus Baerveldt shunt (BS) implantation as second line surgery following failed primary DS. Methods: Fifty one patients were prospectively recruited to undergo BS implantation following failed DS and 51 patients underwent repeat DS, for which data was collected retrospectively. All eyes had at least one failed DS. Surgical success was defined as IOP≤21mmHg and 20% reduction in IOP from baseline. Success rates, number of glaucoma medications (GMs), IOP, and complication rates were compared between the two groups at year 1, post-operatively. Results: Mean age, sex and the proportion of glaucoma subtypes were similar between groups. Preoperatively IOP was significantly lower in DS group vs BS group (18.8mmHg vs 23.8mmHg, p<0.01, two sample t-test). Postoperatively IOP was significantly higher in DS group than BS group (14.6mmHg vs 12.0mmHg, p<0.01, two-sample t-test). In the DS group, 47% of eyes did not achieve 20% reduction in IOP from baseline, as a result the success rates were significantly lower in eyes with DS (51%) than in eyes with BS (88%) (p=0.02, log-rank test). Preoperatively the number of GMs used in DS and BS groups were similar (2.2 vs 2.7 p=0.02, two sample t-test). Postoperatively there remained no significant difference in GMs between groups (0.9 vs 1.1, p= 0.58, two sample t-test). Complication rates were similar between the two groups (12% vs 10%). Conclusions: Baerveldt tube implantation was more effective in lowering IOP than repeat deep sclerectomy in eyes with failed primary DS, at year one. Complications were minor and infrequent in both groups

Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Proton Therapy for Uveal Melanoma in 43 Juvenile Patients: Long-Term Results.

PURPOSE: To examine the metastatic and survival rates, eye retention probability, and the visual outcomes of juvenile patients after proton beam radiotherapy (PBRT) for uveal melanoma (UM). DESIGN: Retrospective case-factor matched control study. PARTICIPANTS AND CONTROLS: Forty-three patients younger than 21 years treated with PBRT for UM were compared with 129 matched adult control patients. METHODS: Information on patient demographics and clinical characteristics were recorded before and after treatment from patients' files. The control group was composed of adult patients (>21 years) matched for tumor size (largest tumor diameter, ±2 mm; height, ±2 mm) and anterior margin location (iris, ciliary body, pre-equatorial or postequatorial choroid). For each juvenile patient, 3 adults were selected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparing outcomes of juvenile and adult patients in terms of metastatic and eye retention rates using the log-rank statistic, relative survival using the Hakulinen method, as well as their visual outcomes. RESULTS: Forty-three juvenile and 129 control cases were reviewed. The metastatic rate at 10 years was significantly lower in juvenile UM patients than in adult controls (11% vs. 34%; P <0.01), with an associated relative survival rate of 93% versus 65% (P = 0.02). Six juvenile patients (14%) demonstrated metastases. One patient underwent enucleation because of a presumed local tumor recurrence and 4 additional patients underwent enucleation because of complications (9.3%). In the adult control group, 27% (n = 35) of matched patients demonstrated metastases, there were 2 cases of local recurrence, and 16% (n = 21) underwent enucleation because of complications. A visual acuity of more than 0.10 was maintained in most cases, without any significant differences before or after treatment observed between both groups. CONCLUSIONS: After PBRT, metastatic and survival rates are significantly better for juvenile than for adult patients with UM. Clinically, juvenile and adult eyes react similarly to PBRT, with patients having a comparable eye retention probability and maintaining a useful level of vision in most cases. This is the largest case-control study of proton therapy in juvenile eyes to date and further validates PBRT as an appropriate conservative treatment for UM in patients younger than 21 years.

Variation in performance in low-volume mammography screening programmes: experience from Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Reading volume and mammography screening performance appear positively correlated. Quality and effectiveness were compared across low-volume screening programmes targeting relatively small populations and operating under the same decentralised healthcare system. Except for accreditation of 2nd readers (restrictive vs non-restrictive strategy), these organised programmes had similar screening regimen/procedures and duration, which maximises comparability. Variation in performance and its determinants were explored in order to improve mammography practice and optimise screening performance. METHODS: Circa 200,000 screens performed between 1999 and 2006 (4 rounds) in 3 longest standing Swiss cantonal programmes (of Vaud, Geneva and Valais) were assessed. Indicators of quality and effectiveness were assessed according to European standards. Interval cancers were identified through linkage with cancer registries records. RESULTS: Swiss programmes met most European standards of performance with a substantial, favourable cancer stage shift. Up to a two-fold variation occurred for several performance indicators. In subsequent rounds, compared with programmes (Vaud and Geneva) that applied a restrictive selection strategy for 2nd readers, proportions of in situ lesions and of small cancers (≤1cm) were one third lower and halved, respectively, and the proportion of advanced lesions (stage II+) nearly 50% higher in the programme without a restrictive selection strategy. Discrepancy in second-year proportional incidence of interval cancers appears to be multicausal. CONCLUSION: Differences in performance could partly be explained by a selective strategy for second readers and a prior experience in service screening, but not by the levels of opportunistic screening and programme attendance. This study provides clues for enhancing mammography screening performance in low-volume programmes.

Adjuvant radiotherapy for gastric carcinoma: 10 years follow-up of 244 cases from a single institution.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) of gastric carcinoma improves survival among high- risk patients. This study was undertaken to analyse long-term survival probability and the impact of certain covariates on the survival outcome in affected individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 2000 and December 2005, 244 patients with gastric cancer underwent adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) in our institution. Data were retrieved retrospectively from patient files and analysed with SPSS version 21.0. RESULTS: A total of 244 cases, with a male to female ratio of 2.2:1, were enrolled in the study. The median age of the patients was 52 years (range, 20-78 years). Surgical margin status was positive or close in 72 (33%) out of 220 patients. Postoperative adjuvant RT dose was 46 Gy. Median follow-up was 99 months (range, 79-132 months) and 23 months (range, 2-155 months) for surviving patients and all patients, respectively. Actuarial overall survival (OS) probability for 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year was 79%, 37%, 24% and 16%, respectively. Actuarial progression free survival (PFS) probability was 69%, 34%, 23% and 16% in the same consecutive order. AJCC Stage I-II disease, subtotal gastrectomy and adjuvant CRT were significantly associated with improved OS and PFS in multivariate analyses. Surgical margin status or lymph node dissection type were not prognostic for survival. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative CRT should be considered for all patients with high risk of recurrence after gastrectomy. Beside well-known prognostic factors such as stage, lymph node status and concurrent chemotherapy, the type of gastrectomy was an important prognostic factor in our series. With our findings we add to the discussion on the definition of required surgical margin for subtotal gastrectomy. We consider that our observations in gastric cancer patients in our clinic can be useful in the future randomised trials to point the way to improved outcomes.

PERC rule to exclude the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism in emergency low-risk patients: study protocol for the PROPER randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) is crucial. As emergency physicians fear missing this potential life-threatening condition, PE tends to be over-investigated, exposing patients to unnecessary risks and uncertain benefit in terms of outcome. The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) is an eight-item block of clinical criteria that can identify patients who can safely be discharged from the ED without further investigation for PE. The endorsement of this rule could markedly reduce the number of irradiative imaging studies, ED length of stay, and rate of adverse events resulting from both diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. Several retrospective and prospective studies have shown the safety and benefits of the PERC rule for PE diagnosis in low-risk patients, but the validity of this rule is still controversial. We hypothesize that in European patients with a low gestalt clinical probability and who are PERC-negative, PE can be safely ruled out and the patient discharged without further testing. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a controlled, cluster randomized trial, in 15 centers in France. Each center will be randomized for the sequence of intervention periods: a 6-month intervention period (PERC-based strategy) followed by a 6-month control period (usual care), or in reverse order, with 2 months of "wash-out" between the 2 periods. Adult patients presenting to the ED with a suspicion of PE and a low pre test probability estimated by clinical gestalt will be eligible. The primary outcome is the percentage of failure resulting from the diagnostic strategy, defined as diagnosed venous thromboembolic events at 3-month follow-up, among patients for whom PE has been initially ruled out. DISCUSSION: The PERC rule has the potential to decrease the number of irradiative imaging studies in the ED, and is reported to be safe. However, no randomized study has ever validated the safety of PERC. Furthermore, some studies have challenged the safety of a PERC-based strategy to rule-out PE, especially in Europe where the prevalence of PE diagnosed in the ED is high. The PROPER study should provide high-quality evidence to settle this issue. If it confirms the safety of the PERC rule, physicians will be able to reduce the number of investigations, associated subsequent adverse events, costs, and ED length of stay for patients with a low clinical probability of PE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02375919 .

Equating accelerometer estimates among youth: The Rosetta Stone 2.

OBJECTIVES: Different accelerometer cutpoints used by different researchers often yields vastly different estimates of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA). This is recognized as cutpoint non-equivalence (CNE), which reduces the ability to accurately compare youth MVPA across studies. The objective of this research is to develop a cutpoint conversion system that standardizes minutes of MVPA for six different sets of published cutpoints. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis. METHODS: Data from the International Children's Accelerometer Database (ICAD; Spring 2014) consisting of 43,112 Actigraph accelerometer data files from 21 worldwide studies (children 3-18 years, 61.5% female) were used to develop prediction equations for six sets of published cutpoints. Linear and non-linear modeling, using a leave one out cross-validation technique, was employed to develop equations to convert MVPA from one set of cutpoints into another. Bland Altman plots illustrate the agreement between actual MVPA and predicted MVPA values. RESULTS: Across the total sample, mean MVPA ranged from 29.7MVPAmind(-1) (Puyau) to 126.1MVPAmind(-1) (Freedson 3 METs). Across conversion equations, median absolute percent error was 12.6% (range: 1.3 to 30.1) and the proportion of variance explained ranged from 66.7% to 99.8%. Mean difference for the best performing prediction equation (VC from EV) was -0.110mind(-1) (limits of agreement (LOA), -2.623 to 2.402). The mean difference for the worst performing prediction equation (FR3 from PY) was 34.76mind(-1) (LOA, -60.392 to 129.910). CONCLUSIONS: For six different sets of published cutpoints, the use of this equating system can assist individuals attempting to synthesize the growing body of literature on Actigraph, accelerometry-derived MVPA.