Illicit drug profiling, reflection on statistical comparisons

This paper presents reflexions about statistical considerations on illicit drug profiling and more specifically about the calculation of threshold for determining of the seizure are linked or not. The specific case of heroin and cocaine profiling is presented with the necessary details on the target profiling variables (major alkaloids) selected and the analytical method used. Statistical approach to compare illicit drug seizures is also presented with the introduction of different scenarios dealing with different data pre-treatment or transformation of variables.The main aim consists to demonstrate the influence of data pre-treatment on the statistical outputs. A thorough study of the evolution of the true positive rate (TP) and the false positive rate (FP) in heroin and cocaine comparison is then proposed to investigate this specific topic and to demonstrate that there is no universal approach available and that the calculations have to be revaluate for each new specific application.

Ethnic minority-majority asymmetry in national attitudes around the world: A multilevel analysis

Using data from the International Social Survey Programme, this research investigated asymmetric attitudes of ethnic minorities and majorities towards their country and explored the impact of human development, ethnic diversity, and social inequality as country-level moderators of national attitudes. In line with the general hypothesis of ethnic asymmetry, we found that ethnic, linguistic, and religious majorities were more identified with the nation and more strongly endorsed nationalist ideology than minorities (H1, 33 countries). Multilevel analyses revealed that this pattern of asymmetry was moderated by country-level characteristics: the difference between minorities and majorities was greatest in ethnically diverse countries and in egalitarian, low inequality contexts. We also observed a larger positive correlation between ethnic subgroup identification and both national identification and nationalism for majorities than for minorities (H2, 20 countries). A stronger overall relationship between ethnic and national identification was observed in countries with a low level of human development. The greatest minority-majority differences in the relationship between ethnic identification and national attitudes were found in egalitarian countries with a strong welfare state tradition.

Synchronous versus asynchronous modeling of gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: In silico modeling of gene regulatory networks has gained some momentum recently due to increased interest in analyzing the dynamics of biological systems. This has been further facilitated by the increasing availability of experimental data on gene-gene, protein-protein and gene-protein interactions. The two dynamical properties that are often experimentally testable are perturbations and stable steady states. Although a lot of work has been done on the identification of steady states, not much work has been reported on in silico modeling of cellular differentiation processes. RESULTS: In this manuscript, we provide algorithms based on reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (ROBDDs) for Boolean modeling of gene regulatory networks. Algorithms for synchronous and asynchronous transition models have been proposed and their corresponding computational properties have been analyzed. These algorithms allow users to compute cyclic attractors of large networks that are currently not feasible using existing software. Hereby we provide a framework to analyze the effect of multiple gene perturbation protocols, and their effect on cell differentiation processes. These algorithms were validated on the T-helper model showing the correct steady state identification and Th1-Th2 cellular differentiation process. AVAILABILITY: The software binaries for Windows and Linux platforms can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/~garg/genysis.html.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

Detailed DEM analysis of a rockslide scar to characterize the basal sliding surface of active rockslides

The basal sliding surfaces in large rockslides are often composed of several surfaces and possess a complex geometry. The exact morphology and location in three dimensions of the sliding surface remains generally unknown, in spite of extensive field and subsurface investigations, such as those at the Åknes rockslide (western Norway). This knowledge is crucial for volume estimations, failure mechanisms, and numerical slope stability modeling. This paper focuses on the geomorphologic characterization of the basal sliding surface of a postglacial rockslide scar in the vicinity of Åknes. This scar displays a stepped basal sliding surface formed by dip slopes of the gneiss foliation linked together by steeply dipping fractures. A detailed characterization of the rockslide scar by means of high-resolution digital elevation models permits statistical parameters of dip angle, spacing, persistence, and roughness of foliation surfaces and step fractures to be obtained. The characteristics are used for stochastic simulations of stepped basal sliding surfaces at the Åknes rockslide. These findings are compared with previous models based on geophysical investigations. This study discusses the investigation of rockslide scars and rock outcrops for a better understanding of potential rockslides. This work identifies possible basal sliding surface locations, which is a valuable input for volume estimates, design and location of monitoring instrumentation, and numerical slope stability modeling.

Preliminary regional rockfall hazard mapping using LIDAR-based slope frequency distribution and CONEFALL modeling

A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

Functional analysis and structural modeling of human APOBEC3G reveal the role of evolutionarily conserved elements in the inhibition of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection and Alu transposition.

Retroelements are important evolutionary forces but can be deleterious if left uncontrolled. Members of the human APOBEC3 family of cytidine deaminases can inhibit a wide range of endogenous, as well as exogenous, retroelements. These enzymes are structurally organized in one or two domains comprising a zinc-coordinating motif. APOBEC3G contains two such domains, only the C terminal of which is endowed with editing activity, while its N-terminal counterpart binds RNA, promotes homo-oligomerization, and is necessary for packaging into human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) virions. Here, we performed a large-scale mutagenesis-based analysis of the APOBEC3G N terminus, testing mutants for (i) inhibition of vif-defective HIV-1 infection and Alu retrotransposition, (ii) RNA binding, and (iii) oligomerization. Furthermore, in the absence of structural information on this domain, we used homology modeling to examine the positions of functionally important residues and of residues found to be under positive selection by phylogenetic analyses of primate APOBEC3G genes. Our results reveal the importance of a predicted RNA binding dimerization interface both for packaging into HIV-1 virions and inhibition of both HIV-1 infection and Alu transposition. We further found that the HIV-1-blocking activity of APOBEC3G N-terminal mutants defective for packaging can be almost entirely rescued if their virion incorporation is forced by fusion with Vpr, indicating that the corresponding region of APOBEC3G plays little role in other aspects of its action against this pathogen. Interestingly, residues forming the APOBEC3G dimer interface are highly conserved, contrasting with the rapid evolution of two neighboring surface-exposed amino acid patches, one targeted by the Vif protein of primate lentiviruses and the other of yet-undefined function.

Multilevel oblique corpectomy for cervical spondylotic myelopathy preserves segmental motion.

PURPOSE: To document the neurological outcome, spinal alignment and segmental range of movement after oblique cervical corpectomy (OCC) for cervical compressive myelopathy. METHODS: This retrospective study included 109 patients--93 with cervical spondylotic myelopathy and 16 with ossified posterior longitudinal ligament in whom spinal curvature and range of segmental movements were assessed on neutral and dynamic cervical radiographs. Neurological function was measured by Nurick's grade and modified Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) scores. Eighty-eight patients (81%) underwent either a single- or two-level corpectomy; the remaining (19%) undergoing three- or four-level corpectomies. The average duration of follow-up was 30.52 months. RESULTS: The Nurick's grade and the JOA scores showed statistically significant improvements after surgery (p < 0.001). The mean postoperative segmental angle in the neutral position straightened by 4.7 ± 6.5°. The residual segmental range of movement for a single-level corpectomy was 16.7° (59.7% of the preoperative value), for two-level corpectomy it was 20.0° (67.2%) and for three-level corpectomies it was 22.9° (74.3%). 63% of patients with lordotic spines continued to have lordosis postoperatively while only one became kyphotic without clinical worsening. Four patients with preoperative kyphotic spines showed no change in spine curvature. None developed spinal instability. CONCLUSIONS: The OCC preserves segmental motion in the short-term, however, the tendency towards straightening of the spine, albeit without clinical worsening, warrants serial follow-up imaging to determine whether this motion preservation is long lasting.

Statistical evaluation of the influence of writing postures on on-line signatures. Study of the impact of time.

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of unusual writing positions on a person's signature, in comparison to a standard writing position. Ten writers were asked to sign their signature six times, in each of four different writing positions, including the standard one. In order to take into consideration the effect of the day-to-day variation, this same process was repeated over 12 sessions, giving a total of 288 signatures per subject. The signatures were collected simultaneously in an off-line and on-line acquisition mode, using an interactive tablet and a ballpoint pen. Unidimensional variables (height to width ratio; time with or without in air displacement) and time-dependent variables (pressure; X and Y coordinates; altitude and azimuth angles) were extracted from each signature. For the unidimensional variables, the position effect was assessed through ANOVA and Dunnett contrast tests. Concerning the time-dependent variables, the signatures were compared by using dynamic time warping, and the position effect was evaluated through classification by linear discriminant analysis. Both of these variables provided similar results: no general tendency regarding the position factor could be highlighted. The influence of the position factor varies according to the subject as well as the variable studied. The impact of the session factor was shown to cover the impact that could be ascribed to the writing position factor. Indeed, the day-to-day variation has a greater effect than the position factor on the studied signature variables. The results of this study suggest guidelines for best practice in the area of signature comparisons and demonstrate the importance of a signature collection procedure covering an adequate number of sampling sessions, with a sufficient number of samples per session.

Interpretation of partial fingermarks using an automated fingerprint identification system

Abstract : In the subject of fingerprints, the rise of computers tools made it possible to create powerful automated search algorithms. These algorithms allow, inter alia, to compare a fingermark to a fingerprint database and therefore to establish a link between the mark and a known source. With the growth of the capacities of these systems and of data storage, as well as increasing collaboration between police services on the international level, the size of these databases increases. The current challenge for the field of fingerprint identification consists of the growth of these databases, which makes it possible to find impressions that are very similar but coming from distinct fingers. However and simultaneously, this data and these systems allow a description of the variability between different impressions from a same finger and between impressions from different fingers. This statistical description of the withinand between-finger variabilities computed on the basis of minutiae and their relative positions can then be utilized in a statistical approach to interpretation. The computation of a likelihood ratio, employing simultaneously the comparison between the mark and the print of the case, the within-variability of the suspects' finger and the between-variability of the mark with respect to a database, can then be based on representative data. Thus, these data allow an evaluation which may be more detailed than that obtained by the application of rules established long before the advent of these large databases or by the specialists experience. The goal of the present thesis is to evaluate likelihood ratios, computed based on the scores of an automated fingerprint identification system when the source of the tested and compared marks is known. These ratios must support the hypothesis which it is known to be true. Moreover, they should support this hypothesis more and more strongly with the addition of information in the form of additional minutiae. For the modeling of within- and between-variability, the necessary data were defined, and acquired for one finger of a first donor, and two fingers of a second donor. The database used for between-variability includes approximately 600000 inked prints. The minimal number of observations necessary for a robust estimation was determined for the two distributions used. Factors which influence these distributions were also analyzed: the number of minutiae included in the configuration and the configuration as such for both distributions, as well as the finger number and the general pattern for between-variability, and the orientation of the minutiae for within-variability. In the present study, the only factor for which no influence has been shown is the orientation of minutiae The results show that the likelihood ratios resulting from the use of the scores of an AFIS can be used for evaluation. Relatively low rates of likelihood ratios supporting the hypothesis known to be false have been obtained. The maximum rate of likelihood ratios supporting the hypothesis that the two impressions were left by the same finger when the impressions came from different fingers obtained is of 5.2 %, for a configuration of 6 minutiae. When a 7th then an 8th minutia are added, this rate lowers to 3.2 %, then to 0.8 %. In parallel, for these same configurations, the likelihood ratios obtained are on average of the order of 100,1000, and 10000 for 6,7 and 8 minutiae when the two impressions come from the same finger. These likelihood ratios can therefore be an important aid for decision making. Both positive evolutions linked to the addition of minutiae (a drop in the rates of likelihood ratios which can lead to an erroneous decision and an increase in the value of the likelihood ratio) were observed in a systematic way within the framework of the study. Approximations based on 3 scores for within-variability and on 10 scores for between-variability were found, and showed satisfactory results. Résumé : Dans le domaine des empreintes digitales, l'essor des outils informatisés a permis de créer de puissants algorithmes de recherche automatique. Ces algorithmes permettent, entre autres, de comparer une trace à une banque de données d'empreintes digitales de source connue. Ainsi, le lien entre la trace et l'une de ces sources peut être établi. Avec la croissance des capacités de ces systèmes, des potentiels de stockage de données, ainsi qu'avec une collaboration accrue au niveau international entre les services de police, la taille des banques de données augmente. Le défi actuel pour le domaine de l'identification par empreintes digitales consiste en la croissance de ces banques de données, qui peut permettre de trouver des impressions très similaires mais provenant de doigts distincts. Toutefois et simultanément, ces données et ces systèmes permettent une description des variabilités entre différentes appositions d'un même doigt, et entre les appositions de différents doigts, basées sur des larges quantités de données. Cette description statistique de l'intra- et de l'intervariabilité calculée à partir des minuties et de leurs positions relatives va s'insérer dans une approche d'interprétation probabiliste. Le calcul d'un rapport de vraisemblance, qui fait intervenir simultanément la comparaison entre la trace et l'empreinte du cas, ainsi que l'intravariabilité du doigt du suspect et l'intervariabilité de la trace par rapport à une banque de données, peut alors se baser sur des jeux de données représentatifs. Ainsi, ces données permettent d'aboutir à une évaluation beaucoup plus fine que celle obtenue par l'application de règles établies bien avant l'avènement de ces grandes banques ou par la seule expérience du spécialiste. L'objectif de la présente thèse est d'évaluer des rapports de vraisemblance calcul és à partir des scores d'un système automatique lorsqu'on connaît la source des traces testées et comparées. Ces rapports doivent soutenir l'hypothèse dont il est connu qu'elle est vraie. De plus, ils devraient soutenir de plus en plus fortement cette hypothèse avec l'ajout d'information sous la forme de minuties additionnelles. Pour la modélisation de l'intra- et l'intervariabilité, les données nécessaires ont été définies, et acquises pour un doigt d'un premier donneur, et deux doigts d'un second donneur. La banque de données utilisée pour l'intervariabilité inclut environ 600000 empreintes encrées. Le nombre minimal d'observations nécessaire pour une estimation robuste a été déterminé pour les deux distributions utilisées. Des facteurs qui influencent ces distributions ont, par la suite, été analysés: le nombre de minuties inclus dans la configuration et la configuration en tant que telle pour les deux distributions, ainsi que le numéro du doigt et le dessin général pour l'intervariabilité, et la orientation des minuties pour l'intravariabilité. Parmi tous ces facteurs, l'orientation des minuties est le seul dont une influence n'a pas été démontrée dans la présente étude. Les résultats montrent que les rapports de vraisemblance issus de l'utilisation des scores de l'AFIS peuvent être utilisés à des fins évaluatifs. Des taux de rapports de vraisemblance relativement bas soutiennent l'hypothèse que l'on sait fausse. Le taux maximal de rapports de vraisemblance soutenant l'hypothèse que les deux impressions aient été laissées par le même doigt alors qu'en réalité les impressions viennent de doigts différents obtenu est de 5.2%, pour une configuration de 6 minuties. Lorsqu'une 7ème puis une 8ème minutie sont ajoutées, ce taux baisse d'abord à 3.2%, puis à 0.8%. Parallèlement, pour ces mêmes configurations, les rapports de vraisemblance sont en moyenne de l'ordre de 100, 1000, et 10000 pour 6, 7 et 8 minuties lorsque les deux impressions proviennent du même doigt. Ces rapports de vraisemblance peuvent donc apporter un soutien important à la prise de décision. Les deux évolutions positives liées à l'ajout de minuties (baisse des taux qui peuvent amener à une décision erronée et augmentation de la valeur du rapport de vraisemblance) ont été observées de façon systématique dans le cadre de l'étude. Des approximations basées sur 3 scores pour l'intravariabilité et sur 10 scores pour l'intervariabilité ont été trouvées, et ont montré des résultats satisfaisants.

Application de la modélisation moléculaire à de nouvelles approches thérapeutiques du cancer [Application of molecular modeling to new therapeutic cancer approaches].

Recent progress in the experimental determination of protein structures allow to understand, at a very detailed level, the molecular recognition mechanisms that are at the basis of the living matter. This level of understanding makes it possible to design rational therapeutic approaches, in which effectors molecules are adapted or created de novo to perform a given function. An example of such an approach is drug design, were small inhibitory molecules are designed using in silico simulations and tested in vitro. In this article, we present a similar approach to rationally optimize the sequence of killer T lymphocytes receptors to make them more efficient against melanoma cells. The architecture of this translational research project is presented together with its implications both at the level of basic research as well as in the clinics.