Documentation of fracture severity with the AO classification of pediatric long-bone fractures.

BACKGROUND: The AO comprehensive pediatric longbone fracture classification system describes the localization and morphology of fractures, and considers severity in 3 categories: (1) simple, (2) wedge, and (3) complex. We evaluated the reliability and accuracy of surgeons in using this rating system. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a first validation phase, 5 experienced pediatric (orthopedic) surgeons reviewed radiographs of 267 prospectively collected pediatric fractures (agreement study A). In a second study (B), 70 surgeons of various levels of experience in 15 clinics classified 275 fractures via internet. Simple fractures comprised about 90%, 99% and 100% of diaphyseal (D), metaphyseal (M), and epiphyseal (E) fractures, respectively. RESULTS: Kappa coefficients for severity coding in D fractures were 0.82 and 0.51 in studies A and B, respectively. The median accuracy of surgeons in classifying simple fractures was above 97% in both studies but was lower, 85% (46-100), for wedge or complex D fractures. INTERPRETATION: While reliability and accuracy estimates were satisfactory as a whole, the ratings of some individual surgeons were inadequate. Our findings suggest that the classification of fracture severity in children should be done in only two categories that distinguish between simple and wedge/complex fractures.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital: predictive value of patient and process characteristics.

To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence. Alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43%for treatment adherence and 28%for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow to identify subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

Predictive ability of an early diagnostic guess in patients presenting with chest pain; a longitudinal descriptive study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The intuitive early diagnostic guess could play an important role in reaching a final diagnosis. However, no study to date has attempted to quantify the importance of general practitioners' (GPs) ability to correctly appraise the origin of chest pain within the first minutes of an encounter. METHODS: The validation study was nested in a multicentre cohort study with a one year follow-up and included 626 successive patients who presented with chest pain and were attended by 58 GPs in Western Switzerland. The early diagnostic guess was assessed prior to a patient's history being taken by a GP and was then compared to a diagnosis of chest pain observed over the next year. RESULTS: Using summary measures clustered at the GP's level, the early diagnostic guess was confirmed by further investigation in 51.0% (CI 95%; 49.4% to 52.5%) of patients presenting with chest pain. The early diagnostic guess was more accurate in patients with a life threatening illness (65.4%; CI 95% 64.5% to 66.3%) and in patients who did not feel anxious (62.9%; CI 95% 62.5% to 63.3%). The predictive abilities of an early diagnostic guess were consistent among GPs. CONCLUSIONS: The GPs early diagnostic guess was correct in one out of two patients presenting with chest pain. The probability of a correct guess was higher in patients with a life-threatening illness and in patients not feeling anxious about their pain.

The predictive value of psychological assessment of candidates for gastric bypass: A medical chart review

Background and Objectives: Guidelines for bariatric surgery demand a psychological evaluation of applicants. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the presence of "psychological risk factors" predicts postoperative weight loss after gastric bypass. Methods: Medical records of obese women who underwent bariatric surgery between 2000 and 2004 were reviewed. Psychological assessment consisted of a one-hour semi-structured interview, summarized in a written report. Anthropometric assessment at baseline and 6,12,18 and 24 months after surgery included body weight, height and body mass index. Results: The mean BMI of included patients (N = 92) was 46.2 + 6,3 kg/m(2) (range 38.4-69.7). Based on the psychological assessment, 27% (N = 25) of the patients were classified as having "psychological risk factors" and 28% (N = 26) were diagnosed with a psychiatric diagnosis, most often major depression. Two years after gastric bypass, 16% of patients with "psychological risk factors" achieved an excellent result (%EWL > 75) versus 39% of those without (p < 0.05). About 1 out of 4 patients was in postoperative psychiatric treatment, but only half of them were identified as having "psychological risk factors" at baseline. Weight loss of patients initiating a psychiatric treatment only after surgery was less than of patients who continued psychiatric treatment already initiated before surgery (55.7 + 14.8 versus 66.5 + 14.2 %EWL). Conclusions: A single semi-structured psychological interview may identify patients who are at risk for diminished postoperative weight loss; however, psychological assessment did not identify those patients who were in need of a psychiatric postoperative treatment.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Is intra-operative blood fllow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula ?

Rapport de Synthèse : Introduction : Depuis plus de 50 ans, les fistules artérioveineuses radiocéphaliques (FAV) restent le meilleur accès d'hémodialyse en termes de perméabilité et de complications. Néanmoins, l'échec précoce dû aux thromboses ou à la non maturation entraîne leur abandon chez un nombre significatif de patients. Cette étude prospective est destinée à investiguer la mesure peropératoire du débit sanguin dans les FAV comme valeur prédictive d'échec précoce. Méthode : Nous avons sélectionné des patients nécessitant la confection d'une FAV pour hémodialyse en se basant sur le repérage veineux effectué par ultrason dans la période préopératoire. La mesure du débit sanguin dans la FAV a été réalisée systématiquement après la réalisation de l'anastomose en utilisant une sonde mesurant le temps de transit des globules rouges. Durant le suivi, le débit a été estimé par ultrason à des intervalles réguliers. Résultats : Nous avons réalisés 58 FAV chez 58 patients avec un suivi moyen de 30 jours. La thrombose et non maturation a été observée chez 8 patients (14%) et 4 patients (7%) respectivement. La valeur de débit peropératoire des fistules sans échec précoce était significativement plus élevée que dans les fistules avec échec précoce (230 v. 98 mL/min ; Ρ = 0.007), tout comme à une semaine (753 vs 228 mL/min ; P=0.0008) et 4 semaines (915 vs 245 mL/min, P<0.0001j. La mesure du débit avec une valeur seuil à 120 mL/min présente une sensibilité de 67%, une spécificité de 75% et une valeur prédictive positive de 91%. Conclusions : Un débit sanguin < 120mL/min a une bonne valeur prédictive positive d'échec précoce dans les FAV. Durant la procédure, cette valeur seuil, doit être utilisée pour sélectionner de manière appropriée les FAV nécessitant durant la même intervention une correction immédiate afin d'améliorer le débit. Une étude consécutive devra investiguer les origines des débits faibles des FAV objectivés durant leur confection.

Impaired left ventricular function as a predictive factor for mid-term survival in octogenarians after primary coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

Predictive value of anti-neutrophil cygtoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in small vessel vasculitis

Résumé Valeur prédictive des anticorps dirigés contre le cytoplasme des neutrophiles (ANCA) dans les vasculites des vaisseaux de petit calibre But du travail : Les vasculites sont des pathologies le plus souvent sévères et parfois létales ; elles nécessitent une reconnaissance et un traitement précoces. Il est donc utile de pouvoir disposer de marqueurs diagnostiques, et éventuellement de marqueurs qui puissent prédire l'activité de la maladie. Les « antineutrophil cytoplasm antibodies » (ANCA) constituent une famille d'autoanticorps dirigés contre des antigènes du cytoplasme des neutrophiles, cellules clés du processus inflammatoire au cours des vasculites. De nombreuses études ont tenté de préciser l'utilité des ANCA dans le diagnostic et le suivi des vasculites avec des résultats contradictoires. Le but de ce travail a été de passer en revue l'évolution clinique des patients suivis dans notre service pour une vasculite à ANCA et évaluer la valeur prédictive des ANCA comme marqueur de récidive. Méthode: Les dossiers médicaux de 36 patients, suivis à notre consultation ambulatoire d'immunologie et allergie du CHUV pour une vasculite à ANCA entre janvier 1990 et décembre 2001, ont été analysés de manière rétrospective afin d'établir une base de données. Les données démographiques, le type de vasculite (granulomatose de Wegener ou polyangéite microscopique) et ses caractéristiques (organes touchés), les traitements reçus, les dosages des ANCA (par immunofluorescence et par ELISA avec détermination des anti-PR3 et/ou anti-MPO), et l'évolution clinique (récidive/rémission) ont été considérés. La valeur pronostique des ANCA dans notre population a été calculée utilisant les valeurs prédictives positive et négative, la likelihood et les odds ratios. La valeur statistique a été examinée par les tests Chi-square test ou Fisher's exact test (valeur significative définie comme p <0.05) à l'aide du programme GraphPad Instat software version 3, San Diego, CA. Résultats : Vingt-trois patients atteints d'une maladie de Wegener et treize d'une polyangéite microscopique ont été suivis pour une durée médiane de cinq ans (entre 1 mois et 16 ans). La plupart des patients ont été traités avec des corticostéroïdes associés à du cyclophosphamide. Une rémission a été obtenue chez 21 patients (91 %) atteints d'une maladie de Wegener, mais 74% ont présenté par la suite une récidive. Tous les patients atteints d'une polyangéite microscopique sont entrés en rémission et 33% ont par la suite récidivé. Une élévation persistante (définie comme supérieure à 6 mois) des ANCA ne s'est pas révélée associée à un risque statistiquement significatif de récidive (p=0.14). En revanche, une élévation soudaine du taux des ANCA s'est démontrée prédictive d'une récidive (table 3). Conclusion : Durant le suivi de certaines vasculites, comme la granulomatose de Wegener et la polyangéite microscopique une élévation des ANCA doit faire redouter une exacerbation de la maladie et, par conséquent, justifie une surveillance accrue.

Cross-coding from the Swiss Disability Insurance listing to the ICIDH.

It has been suggested that converting, via a process of cross-coding, the listing used by the Swiss Disability Insurance (SDI) for their statistics into codes of the International Classification of Impairments, Disabilities, and Handicaps (ICIDH) would improve the quality and international comparability of disability statistics for Switzerland. Using two different methods we tested the feasibility of this cross-coding on a consecutive sample of 204 insured persons, examined at one of the medical observation centres of the SDI. Cross-coding is impossible, for all practical purposes, in a proportion varying between 30% and 100%, depending on the method of cross-coding, the level of disablement and the required quality of the resulting codes. Failure is due to lack of validity of the SDI codes: diseases are poorly described, consequences of diseases (disability and handicap, including loss of earning capacity), insufficiently described or not at all. Assessment of disability and handicap would provide necessary information for the SDI. It is concluded that the SDI should promote the use of the ICIDH in Switzerland, especially among medical practitioners whose assessment of work capacity is the key element in the decision to award benefits or propose rehabilitation.

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in resected colon cancer: current status and future perspectives for integrating genomics into biomarker discovery.

The number of agents that are potentially effective in the adjuvant treatment of locally advanced resectable colon cancer is increasing. Consequently, it is important to ascertain which subgroups of patients will benefit from a specific treatment. Despite more than two decades of research into the molecular genetics of colon cancer, there is a lack of prognostic and predictive molecular biomarkers with proven utility in this setting. A secondary objective of the Pan European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer-3 trial, which compared irinotecan in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in the postoperative treatment of stage III and stage II colon cancer patients, was to undertake a translational research study to assess a panel of putative prognostic and predictive markers in a large colon cancer patient cohort. The Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 trial, in a similar design, also investigated the use of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in this setting. In this article, the authors, who are coinvestigators from these trials and performed similar investigations of biomarker discovery in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer, review the current status of biomarker research in this field, drawing on their experiences and considering future strategies for biomarker discovery in the postgenomic era.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.