Trabecular bone score improves fracture risk prediction in non-osteoporotic women: the OFELY study.

The use of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) for fracture prediction may be enhanced by considering bone microarchitectural deterioration. Trabecular bone score (TBS) helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group. INTRODUCTION: TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture. Our goal was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture. METHODS: TBS was assessed in 560 postmenopausal women from the Os des Femmes de Lyon cohort, who had a lumbar spine (LS) DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic) between years 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow-up of 7.8 ± 1.3 years, 94 women sustained 112 fragility fractures. RESULTS: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70 ± 9 vs. 65 ± 8 years) and had a lower LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (both -0.4SD, p < 0.001) than women without fracture. The magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (odds ratio [95 % confidence interval] = 1.4 [1.2;1.7] and 1.6 [1.2;2.0]). After adjustment for age and prevalent fracture, LS_TBS remained predictive of an increased risk of fracture. Yet, its addition to age, prevalent fracture, and LS_aBMD did not reach the level of significance to improve the fracture prediction. When using the WHO classification, 39 % of fractures occurred in osteoporotic women, 46 % in osteopenic women, and 15 % in women with T-score > -1. Thirty-seven percent of fractures occurred in the lowest quartile of LS_TBS, regardless of BMD. Moreover, 35 % of fractures that occurred in osteopenic women were classified below this LS_TBS threshold. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, LS_aBMD and LS_TBS predicted fractures equally well. In our cohort, the addition of LS_TBS to age and LS_aBMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction. However, using the lowest quartile of LS_TBS helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group which is important for patient management.

Circulating estrogens and progesterone during primiparous pregnancies and risk of maternal breast cancer.

Pregnancy reduces maternal risk of breast cancer in the long term, but the biological determinants of the protection are unknown. Animal experiments suggest that estrogens and progesterone could be involved, but direct human evidence is scant. A case-control study (536 cases and 1,049 controls) was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. Eligible were primiparous women who delivered at term a singleton offspring before age 40. For each case, two individually matched controls by age (±6 months) and date of sampling (±3 months) were selected. Estradiol, estrone and progesterone in first-trimester serum were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG) by immunoassay. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated through conditional logistic regression. In the whole study population there was no association of breast cancer with any of the studied hormones. In analyses stratified by age at diagnosis, however, estradiol concentrations were positively associated with risk of breast cancer before age 40 (upper quartile OR, 1.81; CI, 1.08-3.06), but inversely associated with risk in women who were diagnosed ≥age 40 (upper quartile OR, 0.64; CI, 0.40-1.04), p(interaction) 0.004. Risk estimates for estrone mirrored those for estradiol but were less pronounced. Progesterone was not associated with risk of subsequent breast cancer. Our results provide initial evidence that concentrations of estrogens during the early parts of a primiparous pregnancy are associated with maternal risk of breast cancer and suggest that the effect may differ for tumors diagnosed before and after age 40.

Who is at low risk for cardiovascular disease? An assessment of different definitions.

BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the determinants and trends of the prevalence of low cardiovascular risk factor (RF) profile in the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and trends of low RF profile in the Swiss population according to different definitions. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in 1984-1986 (N=3300), 1988-1989 (N=3331), 1992-1993 (N=3133) and 2003-2006 (N=6170) and restricted to age group 35-75 years. Seven different definitions of low RF profile were used to assess determinants, while two definitions were used to assess trends. RESULTS: Prevalence of low RF profile varied between 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-7.1) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5) depending on the definition used. This prevalence was higher than in other countries. Irrespective of the definition used, the prevalence of low RF profile was higher in women and in physically active participants, and decreased with increasing age or in the presence of a family history of cardiovascular disease. Using one definition, the prevalence of low RF profile increased from 3.8% (3.1-4.5) in 1984-1986 to 6.7% (6.1-7.3) in 2003-2006; using another definition, the results were 5.9% (5.1-6.8) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: Switzerland is characterized by a high and increasing prevalence of low RF profile within the age group 35 to 75, irrespective of the criteria used. This high prevalence might partly explain the low and decreasing trend in cardiovascular mortality rates.

The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women.

SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.

Alcohol consumption and social inequality at the individual and country levels--results from an international study.

BACKGROUND: International comparisons of social inequalities in alcohol use have not been extensively investigated. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of country-level characteristics and individual socio-economic status (SES) on individual alcohol consumption in 33 countries. METHODS: Data on 101,525 men and women collected by cross-sectional surveys in 33 countries of the GENACIS study were used. Individual SES was measured by highest attained educational level. Alcohol use measures included drinking status and monthly risky single occasion drinking (RSOD). The relationship between individuals' education and drinking indicators was examined by meta-analysis. In a second step the individual level data and country data were combined and tested in multilevel models. As country level indicators we used the Purchasing Power Parity of the gross national income, the Gini coefficient and the Gender Gap Index. RESULTS: For both genders and all countries higher individual SES was positively associated with drinking status. Also higher country level SES was associated with higher proportions of drinkers. Lower SES was associated with RSOD among men. Women of higher SES in low income countries were more often RSO drinkers than women of lower SES. The opposite was true in higher income countries. CONCLUSION: For the most part, findings regarding SES and drinking in higher income countries were as expected. However, women of higher SES in low and middle income countries appear at higher risk of engaging in RSOD. This finding should be kept in mind when developing new policy and prevention initiatives.

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

Prophylactic isolated limb perfusion for localized, high-risk limb melanoma: results of a multicenter randomized phase III trial. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Malignant Melanoma Cooperative Group Protocol 18832, the World Health Organization Melanoma Program Trial 15, and the North American Perfusion Group Southwest Oncology Group-8593.

PURPOSE: Patients with primary cutaneous melanoma > or = 1.5 mm in thickness are at high risk of having regional micrometastases at the time of initial surgical treatment. A phase III international study was designed to evaluate whether prophylactic isolated limb perfusion (ILP) could prevent regional recurrence and influence survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 832 assessable patients from 16 centers entered the study; 412 were randomized to wide excision (WE) only and 420 to WE plus ILP with melphalan and mild hyperthermia. Median age was 50 years, 68% of patients were female, 79% of melanomas were located on a lower limb, and 47% had a thickness > or = 3 mm. RESULTS: Median follow-up duration is 6.4 years. There was a trend for a longer disease-free interval (DFI) after ILP. The difference was significant for patients who did not undergo elective lymph node dissection (ELND). The impact of ILP was clearly on the occurrence-as first site of progression - of in-transit metastases (ITM), which were reduced from 6.6% to 3.3%, and of regional lymph node (RLN) metastases, with a reduction from 16.7% to 12.6%. There was no benefit from ILP in terms of time to distant metastasis or survival. Side effects were higher after ILP, but transient in most patients. There were two amputations for limb toxicity after ILP. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic ILP with melphalan cannot be recommended as an adjunct to standard surgery in high-risk primary limb melanoma.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Results from a multicentre international registry of familial Mediterranean fever: impact of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease in children.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is an autoinflammatory disease caused by mutations of the MEFV gene. We analyse the impact of ethnic, environmental and genetic factors on the severity of disease presentation in a large international registry. METHODS: Demographic, genetic and clinical data from validated paediatric FMF patients enrolled in the Eurofever registry were analysed. Three subgroups were considered: (i) patients living in the eastern Mediterranean countries; (ii) patients with an eastern Mediterranean ancestry living in western Europe; (iii) Caucasian patients living in western European countries. A score for disease severity at presentation was elaborated. RESULTS: Since November 2009, 346 FMF paediatric patients were enrolled in the Eurofever registry. The genetic and demographic features (ethnicity, age of onset, age at diagnosis) were similar among eastern Mediterranean patients whether they lived in their countries or western European countries. European patients had a lower frequency of the high penetrance M694V mutation and a significant delay of diagnosis (p<0.002). Patients living in eastern Mediterranean countries had a higher frequency of fever episodes/year and more frequent arthritis, pericarditis, chest pain, abdominal pain and vomiting compared to the other two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that the variables independently associated with severity of disease presentation were country of residence, presence of M694V mutation and positive family history. CONCLUSIONS: Eastern Mediterranean FMF patients have a milder disease phenotype once they migrate to Europe, reflecting the effect of environment on the expression of a monogenic disease.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.

Risk Evaluation for Spoofing against a Sensor Supplied with Liveness Detection

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the risks associated with the use of fake fingerprints on a livescan supplied with a method of liveness detection. The method is based on optical properties of the skin. The sensor uses several polarizations and illuminations to capture the information of the different layers of the human skin. These experiments also allow for the determination under which conditions the system is deceived and if there is an influence respectively of the nature of the fake, the mould used for the production or the individuals involved in the attack. These experiments showed that current multispectral sensors can be deceived by the use of fake fingerprints created with or without the cooperation of the subject. Fakes created from direct casts perform better than those produced by fakes created from indirect casts. The results showed that the success of the attack is influenced by two main factors. The first is the quality of the fakes, and by extension the quality of the original fingerprint. The second is the combination of the general patterns involved in the attacks since an appropriate combination can strongly increase the rates of successful attacks.

Treatment and outcomes of acute basilar artery occlusion in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS): a prospective registry study.

BACKGROUND: Treatment strategies for acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) are based on case series and data that have been extrapolated from stroke intervention trials in other cerebrovascular territories, and information on the efficacy of different treatments in unselected patients with BAO is scarce. We therefore assessed outcomes and differences in treatment response after BAO. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO between November 1, 2002, and October 1, 2007. Stroke severity at time of treatment was dichotomised as severe (coma, locked-in state, or tetraplegia) or mild to moderate (any deficit that was less than severe). Outcome was assessed at 1 month. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale score of 4 or 5, or death. Patients were divided into three groups according to the treatment they received: antithrombotic treatment only (AT), which comprised antiplatelet drugs or systemic anticoagulation; primary intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), including subsequent intra-arterial thrombolysis; or intra-arterial therapy (IAT), which comprised thrombolysis, mechanical thrombectomy, stenting, or a combination of these approaches. Risk ratios (RR) for treatment effects were adjusted for age, the severity of neurological deficits at the time of treatment, time to treatment, prodromal minor stroke, location of the occlusion, and diabetes. FINDINGS: 619 patients were entered in the registry. 27 patients were excluded from the analyses because they did not receive AT, IVT, or IAT, and all had a poor outcome. Of the 592 patients who were analysed, 183 were treated with only AT, 121 with IVT, and 288 with IAT. Overall, 402 (68%) of the analysed patients had a poor outcome. No statistically significant superiority was found for any treatment strategy. Compared with outcome after AT, patients with a mild-to-moderate deficit (n=245) had about the same risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.60-1.45) or after IAT (adjusted RR 1.29, 0.97-1.72) but had a worse outcome after IAT compared with IVT (adjusted RR 1.49, 1.00-2.23). Compared with AT, patients with a severe deficit (n=347) had a lower risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.88, 0.76-1.01) or IAT (adjusted RR 0.94, 0.86-1.02), whereas outcomes were similar after treatment with IAT or IVT (adjusted RR 1.06, 0.91-1.22). INTERPRETATION: Most patients in the BASICS registry received IAT. Our results do not support unequivocal superiority of IAT over IVT, and the efficacy of IAT versus IVT in patients with an acute BAO needs to be assessed in a randomised controlled trial. FUNDING: Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht.

Intrauterine devices and endometrial cancer risk : a pooled analysis of the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium

Intrauterine devices (IUDs), long-acting and reversible contraceptives, induce a number of immunological and biochemical changes in the uterine environment that could affect endometrial cancer (EC) risk. We addressed this relationship through a pooled analysis of data collected in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium. We combined individual-level data from 4 cohort and 14 case-control studies, in total 8,801 EC cases and 15,357 controls. Using multivariable logistic regression, we estimated pooled odds ratios (pooled-ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for EC risk associated with ever use, type of device, ages at first and last use, duration of use and time since last use, stratified by study and adjusted for confounders. Ever use of IUDs was inversely related to EC risk (pooled-OR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.74-0.90). Compared with never use, reduced risk of EC was observed for inert IUDs (pooled-OR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.58-0.82), older age at first use (≥35 years pooled-OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.43-0.67), older age at last use (≥45 years pooled-OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.50-0.72), longer duration of use (≥10 years pooled-OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.52-0.71) and recent use (within 1 year of study entry pooled-OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.30-0.49). Future studies are needed to assess the respective roles of detection biases and biologic effects related to foreign body responses in the endometrium, heavier bleeding (and increased clearance of carcinogenic cells) and localized hormonal changes.

A clinical prognostic model for the identification of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism and active cancer.

BACKGROUND: Physicians need a specific risk-stratification tool to facilitate safe and cost-effective approaches to the management of patients with cancer and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The objective of this study was to develop a simple risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE and cancer by using measures readily obtained at the time of PE diagnosis. METHODS: Investigators randomly allocated 1,556 consecutive patients with cancer and acute PE from the international multicenter Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. The external validation cohort for this study consisted of 261 patients with cancer and acute PE. Investigators compared 30-day all-cause mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. RESULTS: In the derivation sample, multivariable analyses produced the risk score, which contained six variables: age > 80 years, heart rate ≥ 110/min, systolic BP < 100 mm Hg, body weight < 60 kg, recent immobility, and presence of metastases. In the internal validation cohort (n = 508), the 22.2% of patients (113 of 508) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 4.4% (95% CI, 0.6%-8.2%) compared with 29.9% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.4%) in the high-risk group. In the external validation cohort, the 18% of patients (47 of 261) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 0%, compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-25.0%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical prediction rule accurately identifies low-risk patients with cancer and acute PE.