Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Insertion of green fluorescent protein into nonstructural protein 5A allows direct visualization of functional hepatitis C virus replication complexes.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) replicates its genome in a membrane-associated replication complex, composed of viral proteins, replicating RNA and altered cellular membranes. We describe here HCV replicons that allow the direct visualization of functional HCV replication complexes. Viable replicons selected from a library of Tn7-mediated random insertions in the coding sequence of nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) allowed the identification of two sites near the NS5A C terminus that tolerated insertion of heterologous sequences. Replicons encoding green fluorescent protein (GFP) at these locations were only moderately impaired for HCV RNA replication. Expression of the NS5A-GFP fusion protein could be demonstrated by immunoblot, indicating that the GFP was retained during RNA replication and did not interfere with HCV polyprotein processing. More importantly, expression levels were robust enough to allow direct visualization of the fusion protein by fluorescence microscopy. NS5A-GFP appeared as brightly fluorescing dot-like structures in the cytoplasm. By confocal laser scanning microscopy, NS5A-GFP colocalized with other HCV nonstructural proteins and nascent viral RNA, indicating that the dot-like structures, identified as membranous webs by electron microscopy, represent functional HCV replication complexes. These findings reveal an unexpected flexibility of the C-terminal domain of NS5A and provide tools for studying the formation and turnover of HCV replication complexes in living cells.

Job switching in ants: role of a kinase

Reproductive division of labour is a defining characteristic of eusociality in insect societies. The task of reproduction is performed by the fertile males and queens of the colony, while the non-fertile female worker caste performs all other tasks related to colony upkeep, foraging and nest defence. Division of labour, or polyethism, within the worker caste is organized such that specific tasks are performed by discrete groups of individuals. Ordinarily, workers of one group will not participate in the tasks of other groups making the groups of workers behaviourally distinct. In some eusocial species, this has led to the evolution of a remarkable diversity of subcaste morphologies within the worker caste, and a division of labour amongst the subcastes. This caste polyethism is best represented in many species of ants where a smaller-bodied minor subcaste typically performs foraging duties while larger individuals of the major subcaste are tasked with nest defence. Recent work suggests that polyethism in the worker caste is influenced by an evolutionarily conserved, yet diversely regulated, gene called foraging (for), which encodes a cGMP-dependent protein kinase (PKG). Additionally, flexibility in the activity of this enzyme allows for workers from one task group to assist the workers of other task groups in times of need during the colony's life.

Affaires de patrons, usages de la frontière : géographie des réseaux marchands entre Niger, Bénin et Nigéria

Résumé L'objectif de la thèse est de comprendre le mode d'organisation économique spécifique aux petits centres urbains qui composent les espaces frontaliers sahéliens, en s'interrogeant sur leur concurrence ou leur complémentarité éventuelle à l'intérieur d'un régime de spatialité particulier. En s'appuyant sur l'exemple du carrefour économique de Gaya-Malanville-Kamba situé à la frontière entre le Niger, le Bénin et le Nigeria, il questionne le rôle de la ville-frontière ainsi que le jeu des acteurs marchands localement dominants, à partir de quatre grandes interrogations : Quelles sont les spécificités de l'Afrique sahélienne qui obligent à renouveler les approches géographiques de l'espace marchand? Quels sont les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière? Les formes d'organisation de l'espace qui concourent à la structuration de l'économie sont-elles concurrentes ou coopératives? Les logiques économiques frontalières sont-elles compatibles avec l'orientation des programmes de développement adoptés par les pays sahéliens et leurs partenaires bi- ou multilatéraux? Dans une première partie, un modèle territorial de l'Afrique sahélienne permet de rendre compte de la prédominance des logiques circulatoires sur les logiques productives, une propriété essentielle de toute organisation économique confrontée à l'instabilité climatique. Dans une seconde partie, l'étude considère les facteurs déterminants de l'activité économique frontalière que sont le degré d'enclavement des territoires, la libre circulation des biens et des personnes, les relations concurrentielles ou coopératives qui lient les marchés ainsi que les liens clientélistes qui unissent patron et obligés. Une troisième partie est consacrée aux productions agricoles de tente organisées sous forme de coopératives paysannes ou d'initiatives privées. Une quatrième partie s'intéresse aux réseaux de l'import-export et du commerce de détail qui bénéficient de l'augmentation des besoins engendrée par l'urbanisation sahélienne. L'économie spatiale qui résulte de ces flux est organisée selon deux logiques distinctes : d'une part, les opportunités relatives à la production agricole conduisent certains investisseurs à intensifier l'irrigation pour satisfaire la demande des marchés urbains, d'autre part, les acteurs du capitalisme marchand, actifs dans l'import-export et la vente de détail, développent des réseaux informels et mobiles qui se jouent des différentiels nationaux. Les activités commerciales des villes-marchés connaissent alors des fluctuations liées aux entreprises productives et circulatoires de ces patrons, lesquelles concourent à l'organisation territoriale générale de l>Afrique sahélienne. Ces logiques évoluent dans un contexte fortement marqué par les politiques des institutions financières internationales, des agences bilatérales de coopération et des ONGs. Celles-ci se donnent pour ambition de transformer les économies, les systèmes politiques et les organisations sociales sahéliennes, en faisant la promotion du libéralisme, de la bonne gouvernance et de la société civile. Ces axes directeurs, qui constituent le champ de bataille contemporain du développement, forment un ensemble dans lequel la spécificité sahélienne notamment frontalière est rarement prise en compte. C'est pourquoi l'étude conclut en faveur d'un renouvellement des politiques de développement appliquées aux espaces frontaliers. Trois grands axes d'intervention peuvent alors être dégagés, lesquels permettent de réconcilier des acteurs et des logiques longtemps dissociés: ceux des espaces séparés par une limite administrative, ceux de la sphère urbaine et rurale et ceux du capitalisme marchand et de l'investissement agricole, en renforçant la coopération économique transfrontalière, en prenant en considération les interactions croissantes entre villes et campagnes et en appuyant les activités marchandes. Abstract: Urbanisation in West Africa is recent and fast. If only 10 % of the total population was living in urban areas in 1950, this proportion reached 40 % in 2000 and will be estimated to 60 % in 2025. Small and intermediate cities, located between the countryside and large metropolis, are particularly concerned with this process. They are nowadays considered as efficient vectors of local economic development because of fiscal or monetary disparities between states, which enable businessmen to develop particular skills based on local urban networks. The majority of theses networks are informal and extremely flexible, like in the Gaya - Malanville - Kamba region, located between Niger, Benin and Nigeria. Evidence show that this economic space is characterised by high potentialities (climatic and hydrological conditions, location on main economic West African axis) and few constraints (remoteness of some potentially high productive areas). In this context, this PhD deals with the economic relationships between the three market cities. Focusing on the links that unite the businessmen of the local markets - called patron; - it reveals the extreme flexibility of their strategies as well as the deeply informal nature of their activities. Through the analysis of examples taken from the commerce of agricultural products, import and export flows and detail activities, it studies the changes that have taken place in the city centres of Gaya, Malanville and Kamba. Meanwhile, this research shows how these cities represent a border economical area based on rival and complementary connections. In the first Part, it was necessary to reconsider the usual spatial analysis devoted to the question of economic centrality. As a matter of fact, the organisation of West African economic spaces is very flexible and mobile. Centrality is always precarious because of seasonal or temporary reasons. This is why the first chapters are devoted to the study of the specificity of the Sahelian territoriality. Two main elements are relevant: first the population diversity and second, the urban-rural linkages. In the second part, the study considers three main factors on which the cross-border economic networks are dependent: enclosure that prevents goods to reach the markets, administrative constraints that limit free trade between states and cities and the concurrent or complementary relationships between markets. A third part deals with the clientelist ties engaged between the patrons and their clients with the hypothesis that these relationships are based on reciprocity and inequality. A fourth part is devoted to' the study of the spatial organisation of commercial goods across the borders, as far as the agriculture commercial products, the import-export merchandises and the retail products are concerned. This leads to the conclusion that the economic activity is directly linked to urban growth. However, the study notices that there is a lack of efficient policies dealing with strengthening the business sector and improving the cross-border cooperation. This particularity allows us to favour new local development approaches, which would take into account the important potential of private economical actors. In the same time, the commercial flows should be regulated with the help of public policies, as long as they are specifically adapted to the problems that these areas have to deal with.

An adaptive multiscale method for density-driven instabilities

Accurate modeling of flow instabilities requires computational tools able to deal with several interacting scales, from the scale at which fingers are triggered up to the scale at which their effects need to be described. The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method offers a framework to couple fine-and coarse-scale features by solving a set of localized problems which are used both to define a coarse-scale problem and to reconstruct the fine-scale details of the flow. The MsFV method can be seen as an upscaling-downscaling technique, which is computationally more efficient than standard discretization schemes and more accurate than traditional upscaling techniques. We show that, although the method has proven accurate in modeling density-driven flow under stable conditions, the accuracy of the MsFV method deteriorates in case of unstable flow and an iterative scheme is required to control the localization error. To avoid large computational overhead due to the iterative scheme, we suggest several adaptive strategies both for flow and transport. In particular, the concentration gradient is used to identify a front region where instabilities are triggered and an accurate (iteratively improved) solution is required. Outside the front region the problem is upscaled and both flow and transport are solved only at the coarse scale. This adaptive strategy leads to very accurate solutions at roughly the same computational cost as the non-iterative MsFV method. In many circumstances, however, an accurate description of flow instabilities requires a refinement of the computational grid rather than a coarsening. For these problems, we propose a modified iterative MsFV, which can be used as downscaling method (DMsFV). Compared to other grid refinement techniques the DMsFV clearly separates the computational domain into refined and non-refined regions, which can be treated separately and matched later. This gives great flexibility to employ different physical descriptions in different regions, where different equations could be solved, offering an excellent framework to construct hybrid methods.

Data-driven clustering : new methods and applications

Abstract : This work is concerned with the development and application of novel unsupervised learning methods, having in mind two target applications: the analysis of forensic case data and the classification of remote sensing images. First, a method based on a symbolic optimization of the inter-sample distance measure is proposed to improve the flexibility of spectral clustering algorithms, and applied to the problem of forensic case data. This distance is optimized using a loss function related to the preservation of neighborhood structure between the input space and the space of principal components, and solutions are found using genetic programming. Results are compared to a variety of state-of--the-art clustering algorithms. Subsequently, a new large-scale clustering method based on a joint optimization of feature extraction and classification is proposed and applied to various databases, including two hyperspectral remote sensing images. The algorithm makes uses of a functional model (e.g., a neural network) for clustering which is trained by stochastic gradient descent. Results indicate that such a technique can easily scale to huge databases, can avoid the so-called out-of-sample problem, and can compete with or even outperform existing clustering algorithms on both artificial data and real remote sensing images. This is verified on small databases as well as very large problems. Résumé : Ce travail de recherche porte sur le développement et l'application de méthodes d'apprentissage dites non supervisées. Les applications visées par ces méthodes sont l'analyse de données forensiques et la classification d'images hyperspectrales en télédétection. Dans un premier temps, une méthodologie de classification non supervisée fondée sur l'optimisation symbolique d'une mesure de distance inter-échantillons est proposée. Cette mesure est obtenue en optimisant une fonction de coût reliée à la préservation de la structure de voisinage d'un point entre l'espace des variables initiales et l'espace des composantes principales. Cette méthode est appliquée à l'analyse de données forensiques et comparée à un éventail de méthodes déjà existantes. En second lieu, une méthode fondée sur une optimisation conjointe des tâches de sélection de variables et de classification est implémentée dans un réseau de neurones et appliquée à diverses bases de données, dont deux images hyperspectrales. Le réseau de neurones est entraîné à l'aide d'un algorithme de gradient stochastique, ce qui rend cette technique applicable à des images de très haute résolution. Les résultats de l'application de cette dernière montrent que l'utilisation d'une telle technique permet de classifier de très grandes bases de données sans difficulté et donne des résultats avantageusement comparables aux méthodes existantes.

Neural networks as mechanisms to regulate division of labor.

Abstract In social insects, workers perform a multitude of tasks, such as foraging, nest construction, and brood rearing, without central control of how work is allocated among individuals. It has been suggested that workers choose a task by responding to stimuli gathered from the environment. Response-threshold models assume that individuals in a colony vary in the stimulus intensity (response threshold) at which they begin to perform the corresponding task. Here we highlight the limitations of these models with respect to colony performance in task allocation. First, we show with analysis and quantitative simulations that the deterministic response-threshold model constrains the workers' behavioral flexibility under some stimulus conditions. Next, we show that the probabilistic response-threshold model fails to explain precise colony responses to varying stimuli. Both of these limitations would be detrimental to colony performance when dynamic and precise task allocation is needed. To address these problems, we propose extensions of the response-threshold model by adding variables that weigh stimuli. We test the extended response-threshold model in a foraging scenario and show in simulations that it results in an efficient task allocation. Finally, we show that response-threshold models can be formulated as artificial neural networks, which consequently provide a comprehensive framework for modeling task allocation in social insects.

Beyond the 'dyad': a qualitative re-evaluation of the changing clinical consultation.

OBJECTIVE: To identify characteristics of consultations that do not conform to the traditionally understood communication 'dyad', in order to highlight implications for medical education and develop a reflective 'toolkit' for use by medical practitioners and educators in the analysis of consultations. DESIGN: A series of interdisciplinary research workshops spanning 12 months explored the social impact of globalisation and computerisation on the clinical consultation, focusing specifically on contemporary challenges to the clinician-patient dyad. Researchers presented detailed case studies of consultations, taken from their recent research projects. Drawing on concepts from applied sociolinguistics, further analysis of selected case studies prompted the identification of key emergent themes. SETTING: University departments in the UK and Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Six researchers with backgrounds in medicine, applied linguistics, sociolinguistics and medical education. One workshop was also attended by PhD students conducting research on healthcare interactions. RESULTS: The contemporary consultation is characterised by a multiplicity of voices. Incorporation of additional voices in the consultation creates new forms of order (and disorder) in the interaction. The roles 'clinician' and 'patient' are blurred as they become increasingly distributed between different participants. These new consultation arrangements make new demands on clinicians, which lie beyond the scope of most educational programmes for clinical communication. CONCLUSIONS: The consultation is changing. Traditional consultation models that assume a 'dyadic' consultation do not adequately incorporate the realities of many contemporary consultations. A paradox emerges between the need to manage consultations in a 'super-diverse' multilingual society, while also attending to increasing requirements for standardised protocol-driven approaches to care prompted by computer use. The tension between standardisation and flexibility requires addressing in educational contexts. Drawing on concepts from applied sociolinguistics and the findings of these research observations, the authors offer a reflective 'toolkit' of questions to ask of the consultation in the context of enquiry-based learning.

Bending modes of DNA directly addressed by cryo-electron microscopy of DNA minicircles.

We use cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) to study the 3D shapes of 94-bp-long DNA minicircles and address the question of whether cyclization of such short DNA molecules necessitates the formation of sharp, localized kinks in DNA or whether the necessary bending can be redistributed and accomplished within the limits of the elastic, standard model of DNA flexibility. By comparing the shapes of covalently closed, nicked and gapped DNA minicircles, we conclude that 94-bp-long covalently closed and nicked DNA minicircles do not show sharp kinks while gapped DNA molecules, containing very flexible single-stranded regions, do show sharp kinks. We corroborate the results of cryo-EM studies by using Bal31 nuclease to probe for the existence of kinks in 94-bp-long minicircles.

Fast Geodesic Active Fields for Image Registration Based on Splitting and Augmented Lagrangian Approaches.

In this paper, we present an efficient numerical scheme for the recently introduced geodesic active fields (GAF) framework for geometric image registration. This framework considers the registration task as a weighted minimal surface problem. Hence, the data-term and the regularization-term are combined through multiplication in a single, parametrization invariant and geometric cost functional. The multiplicative coupling provides an intrinsic, spatially varying and data-dependent tuning of the regularization strength, and the parametrization invariance allows working with images of nonflat geometry, generally defined on any smoothly parametrizable manifold. The resulting energy-minimizing flow, however, has poor numerical properties. Here, we provide an efficient numerical scheme that uses a splitting approach; data and regularity terms are optimized over two distinct deformation fields that are constrained to be equal via an augmented Lagrangian approach. Our approach is more flexible than standard Gaussian regularization, since one can interpolate freely between isotropic Gaussian and anisotropic TV-like smoothing. In this paper, we compare the geodesic active fields method with the popular Demons method and three more recent state-of-the-art algorithms: NL-optical flow, MRF image registration, and landmark-enhanced large displacement optical flow. Thus, we can show the advantages of the proposed FastGAF method. It compares favorably against Demons, both in terms of registration speed and quality. Over the range of example applications, it also consistently produces results not far from more dedicated state-of-the-art methods, illustrating the flexibility of the proposed framework.

Chemodiversity and molecular plasticity: recognition processes as explored by property spaces.

In the last few years, a need to account for molecular flexibility in drug-design methodologies has emerged, even if the dynamic behavior of molecular properties is seldom made explicit. For a flexible molecule, it is indeed possible to compute different values for a given conformation-dependent property and the ensemble of such values defines a property space that can be used to describe its molecular variability; a most representative case is the lipophilicity space. In this review, a number of applications of lipophilicity space and other property spaces are presented, showing that this concept can be fruitfully exploited: to investigate the constraints exerted by media of different levels of structural organization, to examine processes of molecular recognition and binding at an atomic level, to derive informative descriptors to be included in quantitative structure--activity relationships and to analyze protein simulations extracting the relevant information. Much molecular information is neglected in the descriptors used by medicinal chemists, while the concept of property space can fill this gap by accounting for the often-disregarded dynamic behavior of both small ligands and biomacromolecules. Property space also introduces some innovative concepts such as molecular sensitivity and plasticity, which appear best suited to explore the ability of a molecule to adapt itself to the environment variously modulating its property and conformational profiles. Globally, such concepts can enhance our understanding of biological phenomena providing fruitful descriptors in drug-design and pharmaceutical sciences.

Vibration Training Elicits a Mixed Aerobic and Resistance-type Exercise in Sedentary Subjects

PURPOSE: We hypothesize that untrained subjects can benefit from a greater cardiovascular stimulation than trained athletes, resembling classical aerobic-type activity, in addition to eliciting strength gains.METHODS: 3 groups of male subjects, inactive (SED), endurance trained (END) and strength trained (STR) underwent fitness (VO2max) and lower-body strength tests (isokinetic). Subjects were submitted to a session of oscillating VT, composed of 3 exercises (isometric half-squat, dynamic squat, dynamic squat with added load), each of 3 minutes duration, and repeated at 3 vibration frequencies (20, 26 and 32 Hz). VO2, heart rate and Borg scale were monitored.RESULTS: 27 healthy subjects (10 SED, 9 END and 8 STR), mean age 24.5 (SED), 25.0 (STR) and 29.8 (END) were included. VO2max was significantly different as expected (47.9 vs. 52.9 vs. 63.9 mL?min-1?kg-1, resp. for SED, STR and END). Isokinetic dominant leg extensors strength was higher in STR (3.32 N?m?kg-1 vs. 2.60 and 2.74 in SED and END). During VT, peak oxygen consumption (% of VO2max) attained was 59.3 in SED, 50.8 in STR and 48.0 in END (P<0.001 between SED and other subjects). Peak heart rate (% of heart rate max) was 82.7 in SED, 80.4 in STR and 72.4 in END. In SED, dynamic exercises without extra load elicited 51.0 % of VO2max and 72.1 % of heart rate max, and perceived effort reached 15.1/20.CONCLUSIONS: VT is an unconventional type of exercise, known to enhance strength, bone density, balance and flexibility. Users are attracted by the relative passivity. In SED, VT elicits sufficient cardiovascular response to benefit overall fitness in addition to the strength effects. VT's higher acceptance as an exercise in sedentary people, compared to jogging or cycling, can lead to better adherence to physical activity. Although long-term effects of VT on health are not available, we believe this type of mixed aerobic and resistance-type exercise can be beneficial on multiple health parameters, especially cardiovascular health.

Flexible colony-founding strategies in a socially polymorphic ant

In social insects the number of queens per nest varies greatly. One of the proximate causes of this variation may be that queens produced by multiple-queen colonies are generally smaller, and might thus be unable to found new colonies independently. We examined whether the social origin of queens and males influenced the colony-founding success of queens in the socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi. Queens originating from single-queen and multiple-queen colonies had similar survival rates and colony-founding success, be they alone or in two-queen associations. During the first 5 months, queens originating from single-queen colonies gave rise to more workers than queens originating from multiple-queen colonies. Pairs of queens were also more productive than single queens. However, these differences in productivity were transient, as all types of colonies had reached a similar size after 15 months. Mating between social forms was possible and did not decrease queen survival or colony productivity, compared to mating within social forms. Overall, these results indicate that queens from each social form are able to found colonies independently, at least under laboratory conditions. Moreover, gene flow between social forms is not restricted by mating or genetic incompatibilities. This flexibility in mating and colony founding helps to explain the maintenance of alternative social structures in sympatry and the absence of genetic differentiation between social forms.

Rapid genotypic change and plasticity in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi is caused by a host shift and enhanced by segregation.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are among the most abundant symbionts of plants, improving plant productivity and diversity. They are thought to mostly grow vegetatively, a trait assumed to limit adaptability. However, AMF can also harbor genetically different nuclei (nucleotypes). It has been shown that one AMF can produce genotypically novel offspring with proportions of different nucleotypes. We hypothesized that (1) AMF respond rapidly to a change of environment (plant host) through changes in the frequency of nucleotypes; (2) genotypically novel offspring exhibit different genetic responses to environmental change than the parent; and (3) genotypically novel offspring exhibit a wide range of phenotypic plasticity to a change of environment. We subjected AMF parents and offspring to a host shift. We observed rapid and large genotypic changes in all AMF lines that were not random. Genotypic and phenotypic responses were different among offspring and their parents. Even though growing vegetatively, AMF offspring display a broad range of genotypic and phenotypic changes in response to host shift. We conclude that AMF have the ability to rapidly produce variable progeny, increasing their probability to produce offspring with different fitness than their parents and, consequently, their potential adaptability to new environmental conditions. Such genotypic and phenotypic flexibility could be a fast alternative to sexual reproduction and is likely to be a key to the ecological success of AMF.

Segmentation of foot and ankle complex based on kinematic criteria.

Although various foot models were proposed for kinematics assessment using skin makers, no objective justification exists for the foot segmentations. This study proposed objective kinematic criteria to define which foot joints are relevant (dominant) in skin markers assessments. Among the studied joints, shank-hindfoot, hindfoot-midfoot and medial-lateral forefoot joints were found to have larger mobility than flexibility of their neighbour bonesets. The amplitude and pattern consistency of these joint angles confirmed their dominancy. Nevertheless, the consistency of the medial-lateral forefoot joint amplitude was lower. These three joints also showed acceptable sensibility to experimental errors which supported their dominancy. This study concluded that to be reliable for assessments using skin markers, the foot and ankle complex could be divided into shank, hindfoot, medial forefoot, lateral forefoot and toes. Kinematics of foot models with more segments must be more cautiously used.