Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Methods, Applications

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Kinetics of crystal growth and equilibrium domains in eclogite of the Sesia Zone, Western Alps

Kinetics of crystal growth and equilibrium domains in eclogite of the Sesia Zone, Western Alps Darbellay Bastien Institut de Minéralogie et Géochimie Résumé grand public Comme toute matière, la roche est sensible à son environnement et cherche à s'adapter pour acquérir un état stable (état d'équilibre). Les changements des conditions physiques (température et pression) vont ainsi impliquer des modifications dans la roche. Le métamorphisme est l'étude de ces changements. Les minéraux qui constituent la roche peuvent modifier, leur structure, leur chimie ou être remplacer par d'autres minéraux plus stables. Il est ainsi crucial de déterminer les processus responsables et limitant de la croissance minérale. Trois processus permettent la croissance ; (1) la dissolution des éléments du réactant, (2) le transport de ces éléments vers le site de croissance, (3) l'incorporation de ces éléments dans la nouvelle structure. Cette thèse se focalise sur les structures des minéraux de haute pression (forme, zonation chimique, structure interne) pour essayer de déterminer les facteurs importants à l'origine de leur état final. Les zones d'étude se situent dans la zone de Sésia. La première partie traite de la problématique liée à l'incorporation d'un élément dans une structure minérale. A l'image de la croissance humaine, les irrégularités minéralogiques permettent de mettre en lumière un dysfonctionnement de la croissance due à un excès ou à une carence d'un élément. Bien dosé, cet élément est cependant essentiel à la croissance. Les zoisites (épidotes) des métabasites de la région de Cima di Bonze montrent une zonation chimique en sablier. Dans cette zonation la teneur en fer excède la capacité maximum que peut contenir la structure orthorhombique de la zoisite. Des défauts de structure permettent l'accommodation de cet excès. La zoisite peut ainsi adapter sa structure pour permettre l'incorporation d'une relativement grande quantité de fer. Les études précédentes montraient, pour des conditions similaires, la formation de deux épidotes distinctes. La deuxième partie se penche sur la compétition entre le minéral qui fait sa croissance et les minéraux (réactants) qui l'entourent. Les métapélites de la région du Monte Mucrone contiennent des grenats atollaires. Des études détaillées de la texture et de la zonation chimique du grenat ainsi qu'une modélisation thermodynamique ont permis de mieux cerner les facteurs importants responsables de la forme atollaire. Cette structure est obtenue par un changement du comportement de la croissance du grenat le long d'un chemin P-T hercynien. Dans un premier stade, le grenat croît rapidement et consume peu le quartz de la matrice. La croissance se fait ainsi le long des jointures des grains de quartz. Dans un second temps, les changements de conditions PT donnent une croissance lente du grenat et une forte consommation du quartz. Le grenat peut ainsi développer sa forme dodécaédrale classique. La troisième partie s'intéresse aux distances de transport par diffusion d'un élément (ici l'argon) durant la haute pression. Pour ce faire, un profile d'âges 40Ar/39Ar sur biotite a été mesuré depuis un veine de haute pression riche en argon jusque dans son encaissant (granitoïd du Monte Mucrone). Le profile montre une répartition des âges suivant une courbe de diffusion. Le transport se fait sur une longueur de deux centimètre avec l'aide d'un fluide. Il est réduit à une échelle millimétrique quand la phase fluide disparaît. Cette étude montre ainsi les difficultés de transport des éléments durant la haute pression ne permettant pas un rééquilibrage de la roche à grande échelle. Kinetics of crystal growth and equilibrium domains in eclogite of the Sesia Zone, Western Alps Darbellay Bastien Institut de Minéralogie et Géochimie Résumé de thèse Les processus de croissance (diffusion des éléments et les réactions d'interface) et les conditions dans lesquelles les minéraux grandissent (température, pression, fluide, composition chimique de la roche), déterminent la texture ainsi que la zonation des minéraux. Cette thèse se focalise, par le biais de textures peu communes, sur trois différents processus impliqués dans la croissance minérale à haute pression (Zone de Sésia, Alpes de l'Ouest, Italie). L'incorporation d'un élément dans une structure minérale ne peut se faire que dans des sites en accord avec la taille et la charge ionique de l'élément. De plus, la balance de charge doit être maintenue dans le minéral. La régularité de la structure cristalline fixe ainsi une limite maximum de concentration d'un élément donné. Les zoisites provenant des métabasites de la région de Cima di Bonze montrent des zonations en sablier caractérisées par une concentration anormale en fer. La zonation se marque par une différente teinte de biréfringence et par un plus grand angle d'extinction que le reste de la zoisite. Une inter-croissance de clinozoisite à l'intérieur de la structure orthorhombique de la zoisite peut ainsi être suspectée. Les analyses XRD (diffraction des rayons x) ainsi que les analyses Raman ne confirment pas cette suspicion. Seules les analyses TEM (microscope à électrons transmis) montrent des défauts de structure pouvant être interprétés comme des modules de clinozoisite. Ils ne peuvent cependant pas être considérés comme une phase thermodynamique. Un nouveau trou d'immiscibilité entre deux zoisite (X ep= 0.1 and Xep = 0.15) a ainsi pu être établi. Dans les métapélites la région du Monte Mucrone, des grenats fortement zonés montrent une évolution texturale singulière. Ils présentent une forme initiale de `champignon' qui se développe pour former une structure atollaire finale. L'étude conjuguée de la structure 3D et des zonations, ainsi que l'établissement d'un model thermodynamique, indiquent que ces structures proviennent de deux épisodes de croissances : (1) La croissance du grenat durant un chemin prograde hercynien (de 525 °C et 6.2 kbar à 640 °C et 9 kbar) permet la formation des textures atollaires. Elles sont le résultat d'une croissance poecilitique initiale suivie d'une croissance idiomorphique du grenat. (2) La structure est rendue plus complexe par la cristallisation d'un grenat homogène tout autour ainsi qu'à l'intérieur du grenat hercynien durant la haute pression alpine (550 °C and 20 kbar). L'arrivée de l'eau durant la haute pression facilite le transport d'éléments et permet une cristallisation rapide du grenat. La diffusion peut être un facteur limitant de la croissance minéralogique. Elle a aussi une grande importance pour la géochronologie. Une veine de haute pression à l'intérieur du granitoïde du Monte Mucrone a été étudiée dans le but de déterminer la distance de diffusion de l'argon. Le profile d'âges 40Ar/39Ar sur biotites, établi de la veine vers le métagranitoïde, suit une courbe de diffusion. Les âges sont élevés proche de la veine (800 Ma) puis décroissent jusqu'à des âges homogènes (170-150 Ma) à deux centimètres de la veine. La présence de fluide, marqué par de hautes concentrations en chlore, permet une diffusion centimétrique. Cependant, la distance est réduite à une échelle millimétrique quand le fluide est absent. Les très faibles distances de diffusion préservent les âges pré-alpins et impliquent un événement géologique pour les âges de 170-150 Ma. Kinetics of crystal growth and equilibrium domains in eclogite of the Sesia Zone, Western Alps Darbellay Bastien Institut de Minéralogie et Géochimie Thesis abstract Rock textures and zonings are the consequence of growth processes (element diffusion and interface reaction) steered by the environment in which they grew (pressure, differential stress, temperature, fluid and rock composition). The thesis presented here focuses on three different topics, each of it dealing with aspects of mineral growth processes during subduction, in a high-pressure environment. All studies were conducted in the Sesia Zone of the Western European Alps, Italy. The first study addresses the crystallography and geochemistry of element incorporation in zoisite, one of the major hydrous minerals found in subduction zone rocks. Elements can be incorporated into a mineral structure only on crystallographic sites that offer enough space for the ion and the overall charge balance has to be maintained. Element concentrations are hence limited. Incorporation of some elements produces complex zoning, including hourglass like patterns, which are the focus of the first contribution. Zoisites from Cima di Bonze (Sesia Zone) show spectacular hourglass zoning defined by Fe-content variations. The hourglass zones have a distinct birefringence and a different extinction angle than the regular part of the zoisite. We show by detailed XRD (X-ray diffraction) and confocal Raman analyses that the high Fe-zones are nevertheless zoisite, and not clinozoisite as one might expect. High resolution TEM (transmission electron microscopy) analyses show planar defects on (100) that can be interpreted as small-scale clinozoisite modules. However, these clinozoisites cannot be interpreted as a distinctive thermodynamic phase and the entire mineral has to be considered as zoisite. The miscibility gap between two zoisites (Xep = 0.1 and Xep = 0.15) can be then definite at 550 ± 50°C and 14 to 20 Kbar. Strongly zoned garnets in quartz rich metapelite from the Monte Mucrone area (Sesia Zone) show evolution form 3D mushroom to atoll structure. The second contribution presents textural investigations, garnet zoning and thermodynamic modeling that demonstrate that atoll garnets are the result of two distinctive growth events. (1) Garnet atoll structure is already formed during a prograde Hercynian path from 525 °C and 6.2 kbar to 640 °C and 9 kbar. It results in an initial poikilitic growth followed by a final idiomorphic growth event. (2) Alpine HP garnet are homogenous (550 °C and 20 kbar) and grew around and also inside the Hercynian garnet. Lack of prograde Alpine garnet and fast growth of the HP garnet is explained by the absence of water during much of the prograde path. Water saturation was only observed towards the end, close towards the peak metamorphic conditions. Diffusion could be a limiting factor for crystal growth. It has also a great importance in geochronology. HP vein inside the metagranitoide of the Monte Mucrone (~300 Ma) was investigated to determine argon diffusion scales during high-pressure metamorphism. 40Ar/39Ar biotite ages profile from the vein toward the metagranodiorite show a diffusion curve: old ages (800 Ma) located close to the vein decrease until homogenous 170-150 Ma ages are obtained, two centimeter away from the vein. Centimeter-scale diffusion occurs with help of a fluid phase marked by high chlorine concentrations. Argon diffusion is reduced to a millimeter scale when free fluid is absent. Very short diffusion distance permits to preserve pre-Alpine ages. The 170-150 Ma ages are considered to be geologic meaningful, probably resulting from the extensional tectonics linked to opening of the Tethian ocean.

The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

Partitioning of reproduction in mother-daughter versus sibling associations : a test of optimal skew theory

A critical feature of cooperative animal societies is the reproductive skew, a shorthand term for the degree to which a dominant individual monopolizes overall reproduction in the group. Our theoretical analysis of the evolutionarily stable skew in matrifilial (i.e., mother-daughter) societies, in which relatednesses to offspring are asymmetrical, predicts that reproductive skews in such societies should tend to be greater than those of semisocial societies (i.e., societies composed of individuals of the same generation, such as siblings), in which relatednesses to offspring are symmetrical. Quantitative data on reproductive skews in semisocial and matrifilial associations within the same species for 17 eusocial Hymenoptera support this prediction. Likewise, a survey of reproductive partitioning within 20 vertebrate societies demonstrates that complete reproductive monopoly is more likely to occur in matrifilial than in semisocial societies, also as predicted by the optimal skew model.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

Revising the Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT) by means of Item Response Theory.

Cannabis use among adolescents and young adults has become a major public health challenge. Several European countries are currently developing short screening instruments to identify 'problematic' forms of cannabis use in general population surveys. One such instrument is the Cannabis Use Disorders Identification Test (CUDIT), a 10-item questionnaire based on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. Previous research found that some CUDIT items did not perform well psychometrically. In the interests of improving the psychometric properties of the CUDIT, this study replaces the poorly performing items with new items that specifically address cannabis use. Analyses are based on a sub-sample of 558 recent cannabis users from a representative population sample of 5722 individuals (aged 13-32) who were surveyed in the 2007 Swiss Cannabis Monitoring Study. Four new items were added to the original CUDIT. Psychometric properties of all 14 items, as well as the dimensionality of the supplemented CUDIT were then examined using Item Response Theory. Results indicate the unidimensionality of CUDIT and an improvement in its psychometric performance when three original items (usual hours being stoned; injuries; guilt) are replaced by new ones (motives for using cannabis; missing out leisure time activities; difficulties at work/school). However, improvements were limited to cannabis users with a high problem score. For epidemiological purposes, any further revision of CUDIT should therefore include a greater number of 'easier' items.