213 resultados para causal modelin


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In less than half a century, allergy, originally perceived as a rare disease, has become a major public health threat, today affecting the lives of more than 60 million people in Europe, and probably close to one billion worldwide, thereby heavily impacting the budgets of public health systems. More disturbingly, its prevalence and impact are on the rise, a development that has been associated with environmental and lifestyle changes accompanying the continuous process of urbanization and globalization. Therefore, there is an urgent need to prioritize and concert research efforts in the field of allergy, in order to achieve sustainable results on prevention, diagnosis and treatment of this most prevalent chronic disease of the 21st century.The European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI) is the leading professional organization in the field of allergy, promoting excellence in clinical care, education, training and basic and translational research, all with the ultimate goal of improving the health of allergic patients. The European Federation of Allergy and Airways Diseases Patients' Associations (EFA) is a non-profit network of allergy, asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD) patients' organizations. In support of their missions, the present EAACI Position Paper, in collaboration with EFA, highlights the most important research needs in the field of allergy to serve as key recommendations for future research funding at the national and European levels.Although allergies may involve almost every organ of the body and an array of diverse external factors act as triggers, there are several common themes that need to be prioritized in research efforts. As in many other chronic diseases, effective prevention, curative treatment and accurate, rapid diagnosis represent major unmet needs. Detailed phenotyping/endotyping stands out as widely required in order to arrange or re-categorize clinical syndromes into more coherent, uniform and treatment-responsive groups. Research efforts to unveil the basic pathophysiologic pathways and mechanisms, thus leading to the comprehension and resolution of the pathophysiologic complexity of allergies will allow for the design of novel patient-oriented diagnostic and treatment protocols. Several allergic diseases require well-controlled epidemiological description and surveillance, using disease registries, pharmacoeconomic evaluation, as well as large biobanks. Additionally, there is a need for extensive studies to bring promising new biotechnological innovations, such as biological agents, vaccines of modified allergen molecules and engineered components for allergy diagnosis, closer to clinical practice. Finally, particular attention should be paid to the difficult-to-manage, precarious and costly severe disease forms and/or exacerbations. Nonetheless, currently arising treatments, mainly in the fields of immunotherapy and biologicals, hold great promise for targeted and causal management of allergic conditions. Active involvement of all stakeholders, including Patient Organizations and policy makers are necessary to achieve the aims emphasized herein.

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Complex sex-determination systems are a priori unstable and require specific selective forces for their maintenance. Analytical derivations have suggested that sex-antagonistic selection may play such a role, but this assumed absence of recombination between the sex-determining and sex-antagonistic genes. Using individual-based simulations, and focusing on the sex chromosome and coloration polymorphisms of platy fishes as a case study, we show that the conditions for polymorphism maintenance induce female-biases in primary sex ratios, so that sex-ratio selection makes the system collapse towards male- or female heterogamety as soon as recombinant genotypes appear. However, a polymorphism can still be maintained under scenarios comprising strong sexual selection against dull males, mild natural selection against bright females, and low recombination rates. Though such conditions are plausibly met in natural populations of fishes harbouring such polymorphisms, quantitative empirical evaluations are required to properly test whether sex-antagonistic selection is a causal agent, or if other selective processes are required (such as local mate competition favouring female biased sex ratios).

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There is mounting evidence that organic or inorganic enrichment of aquatic environments increases the risk of infectious diseases, with disease agents ranging from helminth parasites to fungal, bacterial, and viral pathogens. The causal link between microbial resource availability and disease risk is thought to be complex and, in the case of so-called "opportunistic pathogens," to involve additional stressors that weaken host resistance (e.g., temperature shifts or oxygen deficiencies). In contrast to this perception, our experiment shows that the link between resource levels and infection of fish embryos can be very direct: increased resource availability can transform benign microbial communities into virulent ones. We find that embryos can be harmed before further stresses (e.g., oxygen depletion) weaken them, and treatment with antibiotics and fungicides cancels the detrimental effects. The changed characteristics of symbiotic microbial communities could simply reflect density-dependent relationships or be due to a transition in life-history strategy. Our findings demonstrate that simple microhabitat changes can be sufficient to turn "opportunistic" into virulent pathogens.

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Lung transplant recipients present an increased risk for severe complications associated with respiratory infections. We conducted a review of the literature examining the clinical relationship between viral respiratory infection and graft complications. Thirty-four studies describing the clinical impact of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus, coronavirus, bocavirus or adenovirus were identified. The detection rate of respiratory viral infection ranged from 1.4% to 60%. Viruses were detected five times more frequently when respiratory symptoms were present [odds ratio (OR) = 4.97; 95% CI = 2.11-11.68]. Based on available observations, we could not observe an association between respiratory viral infection and acute rejection (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 0.41-4.43). We found a pooled incidence of 18% (9/50) of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in virus-positive cases compared to 11.6% (37/319) in virus-negative cases; however, limited number of BOS events did not allow to confirm the association. Our review confirms a causal relationship between respiratory viruses and respiratory symptoms, but cannot confirm a link between respiratory viruses and acute lung rejection. This is related in part to the heterogeneity and limitations of available studies. The link with BOS needs also to be reassessed in appropriate prospective studies.

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La question centrale de ce travail est celle de la relation entre finitude environnementale et liberté individuelle. Par finitude environnementale il faut entendre l'ensemble des contraintes écologiques variées qui posent des limites à l'action humaine. Celles-ci sont de deux types généraux : les limites de disponibilité des ressources naturelles et: les limites de charge des écosystèmes et des grands cycles biogéochimiques globaux (chapitre 1). La thèse défendue ici est que les conceptions libertariennes et libérales de la liberté sont en conflit avec la nécessité de prendre en compte de telles limites et qu'une approche néo-républicaine est mieux à même de répondre à ces enjeux écologiques. Les théories libertariennes, de droite comme de gauche, sont inadaptées à la prise en compte de la finitude des ressources naturelles car elles maintiennent un droit à l'appropriation illimitée de ces dernières par les individus. Ce point est en contradiction avec le caractère systémique de la rareté et avec l'absence de substitut pour certaines ressources indispensables à la poursuite d'une vie décente (chapitres 2 et 3). La théorie libérale de la neutralité, appuyée par le principe du tort (harm principle), est quant à elle inadaptée à la prise en compte des problèmes environnementaux globaux comme le changement climatique. Les mécanismes causaux menant à la création de dommages environnementaux sont en effet indirects et diffus, ce qui empêche l'assignation de responsabilités au niveau individuel. La justification de politiques environnementales contraignantes s'en trouve donc mise en péril (chapitre 4). Ces difficultés proviennent avant tout de deux traits caractéristiques de ces doctrines : leur ontologie sociale atomiste et leur conception de la liberté comme liberté de choix. Le néo-républicanisme de Philip Pettit permet de répondre à ces deux problèmes grâce à son ontologie holiste et à sa conception de la liberté comme non- domination. Cette théorie permet donc à la fois de proposer une conception de la liberté compatible avec la finitude environnementale et de justifier des politiques environnementales exigeantes, sans que le sacrifice en termes de liberté n'apparaisse trop important (chapitre 5). - The centrai issue of this work is that of the relationship between environmental finiteness and individual liberty. By environmental finiteness one should understand the set of diverse ecological constraints that limit human action. These limits are of two general kinds: on the one hand the availability of natural resources, and on the other hand the carrying capacity of ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles (chapter 1}. The thesis defended here is that libertarian and liberal conceptions of liberty conflict with the necessity to take such limits into account, and that a neo-republican approach is best suited to address environmental issues. Libertarian theories, right-wing as well as left-wing, are in particular not able to take resource scarcity into account because they argue for an unlimited right of individuals to appropriate those resources. This point is in contradiction with the systemic nature of scarcity and with the absence of substitutes for some essential resources (chapters 2 and 3). The liberal doctrine of neutrality, as associated with the harm principle, is unsuitable when addressing global environmental issues like climate change. Causal mechanisms leading to environmental harm are indirect and diffuse, which prevents the assignation of individual responsibilities. This makes the justification of coercive environmental policies difficult (chapter 4). These difficulties stem above all from two characteristic features of libertarian and liberal doctrines: their atomistic social ontology and their conception of freedom as liberty of choice. Philip Pettit's neo- republicanism on the other hand is able to address these problems thanks to its holist social ontology and its conception of liberty as non-domination. This doctrine offers a conception of liberty compatible with environmental limits and theoretical resources able to justify demanding environmental policies without sacrificing too much in terms of liberty (chapter 5).

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The way supervisors acknowledge specific contribution and efforts of their employees has an impact on occupational health and wellbeing. Acknowledgement is a protective factor when it is sufficiently provided. We carried out a study about occupational health in police officers with special emphasis on acknowledgment and reward. A questionnaire was sent to 1000 police officers and inspectors working for a cantonal administration in Switzerland. In total, 695 participants answered the questionnaire. We used the TST questionnaire (French version of the Langner's questionnaire on psychiatric symptoms) to identify cases characterized by potential mental health problems. Multiple choice items (5 modalities ranging from "not at all" to "tremendously") were used to measure acknowledgment. The score for psychiatric symptoms was high (TST score >or= 9) for 86 police officers and inspectors for whom health might be at risk. Compared with police officers having low or medium scores for psychiatric symptoms (TST score < 9), police officers with high TST scores were more likely to report the lack of support and attention from the supervisors (odds ratio [OR] 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 5.1) and the lack of acknowledgment by the hierarchy (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 4.8). They were also more likely to mention that judicial authorities have a low consideration for police officers (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 4.3) and that the public in general have a low appreciation of police officers (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.9). Preserving mental health in occupations characterized by high emotional demand is challenging. Our results show that acknowledgment and mental health are associated. Further research should address a potential causal relation of acknowledgment on mental health in police officers and inspectors.

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The 15q24.1 locus, including CYP1A2, is associated with blood pressure (BP). The CYP1A2 rs762551 C allele is associated with lower CYP1A2 enzyme activity. CYP1A2 metabolizes caffeine and is induced by smoking. The association of caffeine consumption with hypertension remains controversial. We explored the effects of CYP1A2 variants and CYP1A2 enzyme activity on BP, focusing on caffeine as the potential mediator of CYP1A2 effects. Four observational (n = 16 719) and one quasi-experimental studies (n = 106) including European adults were conducted. Outcome measures were BP, caffeine intake, CYP1A2 activity and polymorphisms rs762551, rs1133323 and rs1378942. CYP1A2 variants were associated with hypertension in non-smokers, but not in smokers (CYP1A2-smoking interaction P = 0.01). Odds ratios (95% CIs) for hypertension for rs762551 CC, CA and AA genotypes were 1 (reference), 0.78 (0.59-1.02) and 0.66 (0.50-0.86), respectively, P = 0.004. Results were similar for the other variants. Higher CYP1A2 activity was linearly associated with lower BP after quitting smoking (P = 0.049 and P = 0.02 for systolic and diastolic BP, respectively), but not while smoking. In non-smokers, the CYP1A2 variants were associated with higher reported caffeine intake, which in turn was associated with lower odds of hypertension and lower BP (P = 0.01). In Mendelian randomization analyses using rs1133323 as instrument, each cup of caffeinated beverage was negatively associated with systolic BP [-9.57 (-16.22, -2.91) mmHg]. The associations of CYP1A2 variants with BP were modified by reported caffeine intake. These observational and quasi-experimental results strongly support a causal role of CYP1A2 in BP control via caffeine intake.

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La gestion des risques est souvent appréhendée par l'utilisation de méthodes linéaires mettant l'accent sur des raisonnements de positionnement et de type causal : à tel événement correspond tel risque et telle conséquence. Une prise en compte des interrelations entre risques est souvent occultée et les risques sont rarement analysés dans leurs dynamiques et composantes non linéaires. Ce travail présente ce que les méthodes systémiques et notamment l'étude des systèmes complexes sont susceptibles d'apporter en matière de compréhension, de management et d'anticipation et de gestion des risques d'entreprise, tant sur le plan conceptuel que de matière appliquée. En partant des définitions relatives aux notions de systèmes et de risques dans différents domaines, ainsi que des méthodes qui sont utilisées pour maîtriser les risques, ce travail confronte cet ensemble à ce qu'apportent les approches d'analyse systémique et de modélisation des systèmes complexes. En mettant en évidence les effets parfois réducteurs des méthodes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise ainsi que les limitations des univers de risques dues, notamment, à des définitions mal adaptées, ce travail propose également, pour la Direction d'entreprise, une palette des outils et approches différentes, qui tiennent mieux compte de la complexité, pour gérer les risques, pour aligner stratégie et management des risques, ainsi que des méthodes d'analyse du niveau de maturité de l'entreprise en matière de gestion des risques. - Risk management is often assessed through linear methods which stress positioning and causal logical frameworks: to such events correspond such consequences and such risks accordingly. Consideration of the interrelationships between risks is often overlooked and risks are rarely analyzed in their dynamic and nonlinear components. This work shows what systemic methods, including the study of complex systems, are likely to bring to knowledge, management, anticipation of business risks, both on the conceptual and the practical sides. Based on the definitions of systems and risks in various areas, as well as methods used to manage risk, this work confronts these concepts with approaches of complex systems analysis and modeling. This work highlights the reducing effects of some business risk analysis methods as well as limitations of risk universes caused in particular by unsuitable definitions. As a result this work also provides chief officers with a range of different tools and approaches which allows them a better understanding of complexity and as such a gain in efficiency in their risk management practices. It results in a better fit between strategy and risk management. Ultimately the firm gains in its maturity of risk management.

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The energy metabolism in elderly subjects is discussed on the basis of previous analyses of the influence of age on the three components of energy expenditure in man: basal metabolic rate, thermogenesis and physical activity. All three components are diminished in elderly people. We conclude that the modifications of body composition, in particular the age-related loss of lean body mass, result in decreased basal metabolic rate and probably also a blunted diet-induced thermogenesis. Moreover we emphasize that the decrease in physical activity observed in elderly people is the most likely causal factor.

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Self-consciousness has mostly been approached by philosophical enquiry and not by empirical neuroscientific study, leading to an overabundance of diverging theories and an absence of data-driven theories. Using robotic technology, we achieved specific bodily conflicts and induced predictable changes in a fundamental aspect of self-consciousness by altering where healthy subjects experienced themselves to be (self-location). Functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed that temporo-parietal junction (TPJ) activity reflected experimental changes in self-location that also depended on the first-person perspective due to visuo-tactile and visuo-vestibular conflicts. Moreover, in a large lesion analysis study of neurological patients with a well-defined state of abnormal self-location, brain damage was also localized at TPJ, providing causal evidence that TPJ encodes self-location. Our findings reveal that multisensory integration at the TPJ reflects one of the most fundamental subjective feelings of humans: the feeling of being an entity localized at a position in space and perceiving the world from this position and perspective.

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In humans, spatial integration develops slowly, continuing through childhood into adolescence. On the assumption that this protracted course depends on the formation of networks with slowly developing top-down connections, we compared effective connectivity in the visual cortex between 13 children (age 7-13) and 14 adults (age 21-42) using a passive perceptual task. The subjects were scanned while viewing bilateral gratings, which either obeyed Gestalt grouping rules [colinear gratings (CG)] or violated them [non-colinear gratings (NG)]. The regions of interest for dynamic causal modeling were determined from activations in functional MRI contrasts stimuli > background and CG > NG. They were symmetrically located in V1 and V3v areas of both hemispheres. We studied a common model, which contained reciprocal intrinsic and modulatory connections between these regions. An analysis of effective connectivity showed that top-down modulatory effects generated at an extrastriate level and interhemispheric modulatory effects between primary visual areas (all inhibitory) are significantly weaker in children than in adults, suggesting that the formation of feedback and interhemispheric effective connections continues into adolescence. These results are consistent with a model in which spatial integration at an extrastriate level results in top-down messages to the primary visual areas, where they are supplemented by lateral (interhemispheric) messages, making perceptual encoding more efficient and less redundant. Abnormal formation of top-down inhibitory connections can lead to the reduction of habituation observed in migraine patients.

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Cognitive impairment has emerged as a major driver of disability in old age, with profound effects on individual well-being and decision making at older ages. In the light of policies aimed at postponing retirement ages, an important question is whether continued labour supply helps to maintain high levels of cognition at older ages. We use data of older men from the US Health and Retirement Study to estimate the effect of continued labour market participation at older ages on later-life cognition. As retirement itself is likely to depend on cognitive functioning and may thus be endogenous, we use offers of early retirement windows as instruments for retirement in econometric models for later-life cognitive functioning. These offers of early retirement are legally required to be nondiscriminatory and thus, inter alia, unrelated to cognitive functioning. At the same time, these offers of early retirement options are significant predictors of retirement. Although the simple ordinary least squares estimates show a negative relationship between retirement duration and various measures of cognitive functioning, instrumental variable estimates suggest that these associations may not be causal effects. Specifically, we find no clear relationship between retirement duration and later-life cognition for white-collar workers and, if anything, a positive relationship for blue-collar workers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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L'homocystéine est un molécule potentiellement atherogénique et est considéré comme facteur de risque indépendant pour les maladies cardiovasculaires. Pour les patients avec une maladie rénale chronique ou en général avec une fonction rénale diminuée le taux d'homocystéine dans le sérum est élevé. L'acide urique est associé avec un risque augmenté de développer une maladie rénale et prédit la mortalité pour les patients avec une maladie rénale chronique. Le but de cette étude était d'évaluer l'association entre des taux sériques d'homocystéine élevés est la présence d'une fonction rénale diminuée, exprimé par une filtration glomérulaire diminuée ou une albuminurie dans une sélection de la population de Lausanne. Nous avons aussi investigué l'effet de l'acide urique sur cette relation. Pour évaluer si l'association entre l'homocystéine est l'albuminurie pourra être causal, nous avons en même temps investigué l'association entra l'albuminurie est le polymorphisme du gène de la methylènetetrafolate réductase (MTHFR) fortement corrélé avec les taux sériques de l'homocystéine. L'étude CoLaus est transversale et basée sur la population. Elle représente une sélection aléatoire, non stratifié de la population générale de la ville de Lausanne, Suisse, âgée 35-75 ans (n=56.694). 5913 personnes étaient incluses dans l'analyse. La prévalence de l'albuminurie augmente dans les catégories de taux sériques croissants d'homocystéine. L'acide urique est associé avec la concentration sérique de l'homocystéine. Hyperhomocystéinémie et des taux sérique d'acide urique augmentés sont associés avec l'albuminurie, indépendant de l'hypertonie et du diabète. Dans cette étude basée sur une large population, l'association entre des taux sérique elevés d'homocystéine et la prévalence augmentée de l'albuminurie est indépendante de la fonction glomérulaire, indiquant que cette association n'est pas simplement la conséquence de la fonction rénale réduite. Hyperhomocystéinémie est associé avec un risque doublé pour une albuminurie, ce qu'est similaire au risque associé à l'hypertonie ou au diabète type 2. Cette association est indépendante de l'acide urique. Ce résultat suggère que l'hyperhomocystéinémie est un marqueur indépendant des la dysfonction rénale. Individus avec le polymorphisme du MTHFR associé avec des concentrations sériques élevées d'homocystéine sont associé avec un risque augmenté pour une albuminurie. Tous ces résultats supportent l'hypothèse que l'homocystéine cause des dommages rénaux.

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Early consumption of full servings of alcohol and early experience of drunkenness have been linked with alcohol-related harmful effects in adolescence, as well as adult health and social problems. On the basis of secondary analysis of county-level prevalence data, the present study explored the current pattern of drinking and drunkenness among 15- and 16-year-old adolescents in 40 European and North American countries. Data from the 2006 Health Behavior in School Children survey and the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs were used. The potential role of alcohol control and policy measures in explaining variance in drinking patterns across countries was also examined. Policy measures and data on adult consumption patterns were taken from the WHO Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, Eurostat and the indicator of alcohol control policy strength developed by Brand DA, Saisana M, Rynn LA et al. [(2007) Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries. PLoS Med 4:e151.]. We found that a non-significant trend existed whereby higher prices and stronger alcohol controls were associated with a lower proportion of weekly drinking but a higher proportion of drunkenness. It is important that future research explores the causal relationships between alcohol policy measures and alcohol consumption patterns to determine whether strict policies do in fact have any beneficial effect on drinking patterns, or rather, lead to rebellion and an increased prevalence of binge drinking.

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Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. In observational epidemiology, this refers to the use of genetic variants to estimate a causal effect between a modifiable risk factor and an outcome of interest. In this review, we recall the principles of a "Mendelian randomization" approach in observational epidemiology, which is based on the technique of instrumental variables; we provide simulations and an example based on real data to demonstrate its implications; we present the results of a systematic search on original articles having used this approach; and we discuss some limitations of this approach in view of what has been found so far.