An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. METHODS: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). RESULTS: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation (p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research.

Dispositifs de délivrance de principes actifs pour des applications ophtalmologiques [Drug delivery systems for intraocular applications].

Numerous drug delivery systems (DDSs) can be used as intraocular tools to provide a sustained and calibrated release for a specific drug. Great progress has been made on the design, biocompatibility, bioavailability, and efficacy of DDSs. Although several of them are undergoing clinical trials, a few are already on the market and could be of a routine use in clinical practice. Moreover, miniaturization of the implants makes them less and less traumatic for the eye tissues and some DDSs are now able to target certain cells or tissues specifically. An overview of ocular implants with therapeutic application potentials is provided.

Predicting current and future spatial community patterns of plant functional traits

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns - trait means, extremes and diversity in communities - as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m asl. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

Internal arsenite bioassay calibration using multiple reporter cell lines

Bioassays with bioreporter bacteria are usually calibrated with analyte solutions of known concentrations that are analysed along with the samples of interest. This is done as bioreporter output (the intensity of light, fluorescence or colour) does not only depend on the target concentration, but also on the incubation time and physiological activity of the cells in the assay. Comparing the bioreporter output with standardized colour tables in the field seems rather difficult and error-prone. A new approach to control assay variations and improve application ease could be an internal calibration based on the use of multiple bioreporter cell lines with drastically different reporter protein outputs at a given analyte concentration. To test this concept, different Escherichia coli-based bioreporter strains expressing either cytochrome c peroxidase (CCP, or CCP mutants) or β-galactosidase upon induction with arsenite were constructed. The reporter strains differed either in the catalytic activity of the reporter protein (for CCP) or in the rates of reporter protein synthesis (for β-galactosidase), which, indeed, resulted in output signals with different intensities at the same arsenite concentration. Hence, it was possible to use combinations of these cell lines to define arsenite concentration ranges at which none, one or more cell lines gave qualitative (yes/no) visible signals that were relatively independent of incubation time or bioreporter activity. The discriminated concentration ranges would fit very well with the current permissive (e.g. World Health Organization) levels of arsenite in drinking water (10 µg l−1).

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.

Développement de l'interprétation quantitative de la sismique réflexion lacustre : application de l'AVO aux sédiments quaternaires dans le lac Léman

Résumé Des développements antérieurs, au sein de l'Institut de Géophysique de Lausanne, ont permis de développer des techniques d'acquisition sismique et de réaliser l'interprétation des données sismique 2D et 3D pour étudier la géologie de la région et notamment les différentes séquences sédimentaires du Lac Léman. Pour permettre un interprétation quantitative de la sismique en déterminant des paramètres physiques des sédiments la méthode AVO (Amplitude Versus Offset) a été appliquée. Deux campagnes sismiques lacustres, 2D et 3D, ont été acquises afin de tester la méthode AVO dans le Grand Lac sur les deltas des rivières. La géométrie d'acquisition a été repensée afin de pouvoir enregistrer les données à grands déports. Les flûtes sismiques, mises bout à bout, ont permis d'atteindre des angles d'incidence d'environ 40˚ . Des récepteurs GPS spécialement développés à cet effet, et disposés le long de la flûte, ont permis, après post-traitement des données, de déterminer la position de la flûte avec précision (± 0.5 m). L'étalonnage de nos hydrophones, réalisé dans une chambre anéchoïque, a permis de connaître leur réponse en amplitude en fonction de la fréquence. Une variation maximale de 10 dB a été mis en évidence entre les capteurs des flûtes et le signal de référence. Un traitement sismique dont l'amplitude a été conservée a été appliqué sur les données du lac. L'utilisation de l'algorithme en surface en consistante a permis de corriger les variations d'amplitude des tirs du canon à air. Les sections interceptes et gradients obtenues sur les deltas de l'Aubonne et de la Dranse ont permis de produire des cross-plots. Cette représentation permet de classer les anomalies d'amplitude en fonction du type de sédiments et de leur contenu potentiel en gaz. L'un des attributs qui peut être extrait des données 3D, est l'amplitude de la réflectivité d'une interface sismique. Ceci ajoute une composante quantitative à l'interprétation géologique d'une interface. Le fond d'eau sur le delta de l'Aubonne présente des anomalies en amplitude qui caractérisent les chenaux. L'inversion de l'équation de Zoeppritz par l'algorithme de Levenberg-Marquardt a été programmée afin d'extraire les paramètres physiques des sédiments sur ce delta. Une étude statistique des résultats de l'inversion permet de simuler la variation de l'amplitude en fonction du déport. On a obtenu un modèle dont la première couche est l'eau et dont la seconde est une couche pour laquelle V P = 1461 m∕s, ρ = 1182 kg∕m3 et V S = 383 m∕s. Abstract A system to record very high resolution (VHR) seismic data on lakes in 2D and 3D was developed at the Institute of Geophysics, University of Lausanne. Several seismic surveys carried out on Lake Geneva helped us to better understand the geology of the area and to identify sedimentary sequences. However, more sophisticated analysis of the data such as the AVO (Amplitude Versus Offset) method provides means of deciphering the detailed structure of the complex Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Geneva trough. To study the physical parameters we applied the AVO method at some selected places of sediments. These areas are the Aubonne and Dranse River deltas where the configurations of the strata are relatively smooth and the discontinuities between them easy to pick. A specific layout was developed to acquire large incidence angle. 2D and 3D seismic data were acquired with streamers, deployed end to end, providing incidence angle up to 40˚ . One or more GPS antennas attached to the streamer enabled us to calculate individual hydrophone positions with an accuracy of 50 cm after post-processing of the navigation data. To ensure that our system provides correct amplitude information, our streamer sensors were calibrated in an anechoic chamber using a loudspeaker as a source. Amplitude variations between the each hydrophone were of the order of 10 dB. An amplitude correction for each hydrophone was computed and applied before processing. Amplitude preserving processing was then carried out. Intercept vs. gradient cross-plots enable us to determine that both geological discontinuities (lacustrine sediments/moraine and moraine/molasse) have well defined trends. A 3D volume collected on the Aubonne river delta was processed in order ro obtain AVO attributes. Quantitative interpretation using amplitude maps were produced and amplitude maps revealed high reflectivity in channels. Inversion of the water bottom of the Zoeppritz equation using the Levenberg-Marquadt algorithm was carried out to estimate V P , V S and ρ of sediments immediately under the lake bottom. Real-data inversion gave, under the water layer, a mud layer with V P = 1461 m∕s, ρ = 1182 kg∕m3 et V S = 383 m∕s.

Molecular dating, evolutionary rates, and the age of the grasses.

Many questions in evolutionary biology require an estimate of divergence times but, for groups with a sparse fossil record, such estimates rely heavily on molecular dating methods. The accuracy of these methods depends on both an adequate underlying model and the appropriate implementation of fossil evidence as calibration points. We explore the effect of these in Poaceae (grasses), a diverse plant lineage with a very limited fossil record, focusing particularly on dating the early divergences in the group. We show that molecular dating based on a data set of plastid markers is strongly dependent on the model assumptions. In particular, an acceleration of evolutionary rates at the base of Poaceae followed by a deceleration in the descendants strongly biases methods that assume an autocorrelation of rates. This problem can be circumvented by using markers that have lower rate variation, and we show that phylogenetic markers extracted from complete nuclear genomes can be a useful complement to the more commonly used plastid markers. However, estimates of divergence times remain strongly affected by different implementations of fossil calibration points. Analyses calibrated with only macrofossils lead to estimates for the age of core Poaceae ∼51-55 Ma, but the inclusion of microfossil evidence pushes this age to 74-82 Ma and leads to lower estimated evolutionary rates in grasses. These results emphasize the importance of considering markers from multiple genomes and alternative fossil placements when addressing evolutionary issues that depend on ages estimated for important groups.

Red blood cell-derived microparticles isolated from blood units initiate and propagate thrombin generation.

BACKGROUND: Red blood cell-derived microparticles (RMPs) are small phospholipid vesicles shed from RBCs in blood units, where they accumulate during storage. Because microparticles are bioactive, it could be suggested that RMPs are mediators of posttransfusion complications or, on the contrary, constitute a potential hemostatic agent. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study was performed to establish the impact on coagulation of RMPs isolated from blood units. Using calibrated automated thrombography, we investigated whether RMPs affect thrombin generation (TG) in plasma. RESULTS: We found that RMPs were not only able to increase TG in plasma in the presence of a low exogenous tissue factor (TF) concentration, but also to initiate TG in plasma in absence of exogenous TF. TG induced by RMPs in the absence of exogenous TF was neither affected by the presence of blocking anti-TF nor by the absence of Factor (F)VII. It was significantly reduced in plasma deficient in FVIII or F IX and abolished in FII-, FV-, FX-, or FXI-deficient plasma. TG was also totally abolished when anti-XI 01A6 was added in the sample. Finally, neither Western blotting, flow cytometry, nor immunogold labeling allowed the detection of traces of TF antigen. In addition, RMPs did not comprise polyphosphate, an important modulator of coagulation. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our data show that RMPs have FXI-dependent procoagulant properties and are able to initiate and propagate TG. The anionic surface of RMPs might be the site of FXI-mediated TG amplification and intrinsic tenase and prothrombinase complex assembly.

Evaluating spine micro-architectural texture (via TBS) discriminates major osteoporotic fractures from controls both as well as and independent of site matched BMD: the Eastern European TBS study.

The aim of the study was to assess the clinical performance of the model combining areal bone mineral density (aBMD) at spine and microarchitecural texture (TBS) for the detection of the osteoporotic fracture. The Eastern European Study is a multicenter study (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine) evaluating the role of TBS in routine clinical practice as a complement to aBMD. All scans were acquired on Hologic Discovery and GE Prodigy densitometers in a routine clinical manner. The additional clinical values of aBMD and TBS were analyzed using a two steps classification tree approach (aBMD followed by TBS tertiles) for all type of osteoporotic fracture (All-OP Fx). Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of fracture detection as well as the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) were calculated. This study involves 1031 women subjects aged 45 and older recruited in east European countries. Clinical centers were cross-calibrated in terms of BMD and TBS. As expected, areal BMD (aBMD) at spine and TBS were only moderately correlated (r (2) = 0.19). Prevalence rate for All-OP Fx was 26 %. Subjects with fracture have significant lower TBS and aBMD than subjects without fracture (p < 0.01). TBS remains associated with the fracture even after adjustment for age and aBMD with an OR of 1.27 [1.07-1.51]. When using aBMD T-score of -2.5 and the lowest TBS tertile thresholds, both BMD and TBS were similar in terms of sensitivity (35 vs. 39 %), specificity (78 vs. 80 %) and accuracy (64 vs. 66 %). aBMD and TBS combination, induced a significant improvement in sensitivity (+28 %) and accuracy (+17 %) compared to aBMD alone whereas a moderate improvement was observed in terms of specificity (+9 %). The overall combination gain was 36 % as expressed using the NRI. aBMD and TBS combination decrease significantly the number of subjects needed to diagnose from 7 for aBMD alone to 2. In a multi-centre Eastern European cohort, we have shown that the use of TBS in addition to the aBMD permit to reclassified correctly more than one-third of the overall subjects. Furthermore, the number of subjects needed to diagnose fell to 2 subjects. Economical studies have to be performed to evaluate the gain induced by the use of TBS for the healthcare system.

Influence of the world's most challenging mountain ultra-marathon on energy cost and running mechanics

PURPOSE: To examine the effects of the world's most challenging mountain ultra-marathon (Tor des Géants(®) 2012) on the energy cost of three types of locomotion (cycling, level and uphill running) and running kinematics. METHODS: Before (pre-) and immediately after (post-) the competition, a group of ten male experienced ultra-marathon runners performed in random order three submaximal 4-min exercise trials: cycling at a power of 1.5 W kg(-1) body mass; level running at 9 km h(-1) and uphill running at 6 km h(-1) at an inclination of +15 % on a motorized treadmill. Two video cameras recorded running mechanics at different sampling rates. RESULTS: Between pre- and post-, the uphill-running energy cost decreased by 13.8 % (P = 0.004); no change was noted in the energy cost of level running or cycling (NS). There was an increase in contact time (+10.3 %, P = 0.019) and duty factor (+8.1 %, P = 0.001) and a decrease in swing time (-6.4 %, P = 0.008) in the uphill-running condition. CONCLUSION: After this extreme mountain ultra-marathon, the subjects modified only their uphill-running patterns for a more economical step mechanics.

The phylogeography of an alpine leaf beetle: divergence within Oreina elongata spans several ice ages.

The genetic landscape of the European flora and fauna was shaped by the ebb and flow of populations with the shifting ice during Quaternary climate cycles. While this has been well demonstrated for lowland species, less is known about high altitude taxa. Here we analyze the phylogeography of the leaf beetle Oreina elongata from 20 populations across the Alps and Apennines. Three mitochondrial and one nuclear region were sequenced in 64 individuals. Within an mtDNA phylogeny, three of seven subspecies are monophyletic. The species is chemically defended and aposematic, with green and blue forms showing geographic variation and unexpected within-population polymorphism. These warning colors show pronounced east-west geographical structure in distribution, but the phylogeography suggests repeated origin and loss. Basal clades come from the central Alps. Ancestors of other clades probably survived across northern Italy and the northern Adriatic, before separation of eastern, southern and western populations and rapid spread through the western Alps. After reviewing calibrated gene-specific substitution rates in the literature, we use partitioned Bayesian coalescent analysis to date our phylogeography. The major clades diverged long before the last glacial maximum, suggesting that O. elongata persisted many glacial cycles within or at the edges of the Alps and Apennines. When analyzing additional barcoding pairwise distances, we find strong evidence to consider O. elongata as a species complex rather than a single species.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Inter-limb coordination and energy cost in swimming.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the relationship between inter-arm coordination and the energy cost of locomotion in front crawl and breaststroke and explored swimmers' flexibility in adapting their motor organization away from their preferred movement pattern. DESIGN: Nine front-crawlers performed three 300-m in front crawl and 8 breaststrokers performed three 200-m in breaststroke at constant submaximal intensity and with 5-min rests. Each trial was performed randomly in a different coordination pattern: freely chosen, 'maximal glide' and 'minimal glide'. Two underwater cameras videotaped frontal and side views to analyze speed, stroke rate, stroke length and inter-limb coordination. METHODS: In front crawl, inter-arm coordination was quantified by the index of coordination (IdC) and the leg beat kicks were counted. In breaststroke, four time gaps quantified the arm to leg coordination (i.e., time between leg and arm propulsions; time between beginning, 90° flexion and end of arm and leg recoveries). The energy cost of locomotion was calculated from gas exchanges and blood lactate concentration. RESULTS: In both front crawl and breaststroke, the freely chosen coordination corresponded to glide pattern and showed the lowest energy cost (12.8 and 17.1Jkg(-1)m(-1), respectively). Both front-crawlers and breaststrokers were able to reach 'maximal glide' condition (respectively, +35% and +28%) but not 'minimal glide' condition for front crawl. CONCLUSIONS: The freely chosen pattern appeared more economic because more trained. When coordination was constrained, the swimmers had higher coordination flexibility in breaststroke than in front crawl, suggesting that breaststroke coordination was easier to regulate by changing glide time.