Trends over time of virological and immunological characteristics in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The long-term outcome of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not assessed in controlled trials. We aimed to analyse trends in the population effectiveness of ART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over the last decade. METHODS: We analysed the odds of stably suppressed viral load (ssVL: three consecutive values <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and of CD4 cell count exceeding 500 cells/μL for each year between 2000 and 2008 in three scenarios: an open cohort; a closed cohort ignoring the influx of new participants after 2000; and a worst-case closed cohort retaining lost or dead patients as virological failures in subsequent years. We used generalized estimating equations with sex, age, risk, non-White ethnicity and era of starting combination ART (cART) as fixed co-factors. Time-updated co-factors included type of ART regimen, number of new drugs and adherence to therapy. RESULTS: The open cohort included 9802 individuals (median age 38 years; 31% female). From 2000 to 2008, the proportion of participants with ssVL increased from 37 to 64% [adjusted odds ratio (OR) per year 1.16 (95% CI 1.15-1.17)] and the proportion with CD4 count >500 cells/μL increased from 40 to >50% [OR 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07)]. Similar trends were seen in the two closed cohorts. Adjustment did not substantially affect time trends. CONCLUSIONS: There was no relevant dilution effect through new participants entering the open clinical cohort, and the increase in virological/immunological success over time was not an artefact of the study design of open cohorts. This can partly be explained by new treatment options and other improvements in medical care.

Trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma in Europe, 1980-2004.

Upward trends in mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently reported in the United States and Japan. Comprehensive analyses of most recent data for European countries are not available. Age-standardized (world standard) HCC rates per 100,000 (at all ages, at age 20-44, and age 45-59 years) were computed for 23 European countries over the period 1980-2004 using data from the World Health Organization. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends, and annual percent change were computed. Male overall mortality from HCC increased in Austria, Germany, Switzerland, and other western countries, while it significantly decreased over recent years in countries such as France and Italy, which had large upward trends until the mid-1990s. In the early 2000s, among countries allowing distinction between HCC and other liver cancers, the highest HCC rates in men were in France (6.8/100,000), Italy (6.7), and Switzerland (5.9), whereas the lowest ones were in Norway (1.0), Ireland (0.8), and Sweden (0.7). In women, a slight increase in overall HCC mortality was observed in Spain and Switzerland, while mortality decreased in several other European countries, particularly since the mid-1990s. In the early 2000s, female HCC mortality rates were highest in Italy (1.9/100,000), Switzerland (1.8), and Spain (1.5) and lowest in Greece, Ireland, and Sweden (0.3). In most countries, trends at age 45-59 years were consistent with overall ones, whereas they were more favorable at age 20-44 years in both sexes. CONCLUSION: HCC mortality remains largely variable across Europe. Favorable trends were observed in several European countries mainly over the last decade, particularly in women and in young adults.

An age-period-cohort analysis of gastric cancer mortality from 1950 to 2007 in Europe.

PURPOSE: To analyze the components of the favorable trends in gastric cancer in Europe. METHODS: From official certified deaths from gastric cancer and population estimates for 42 countries of the European geographical region, during the period 1950 to 2007, age-standardized death rates (World Standard Population) were computed, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed. RESULTS: Central and Northern countries with lower rates in the 2005 to 2007 period, such as France (5.28 and 1.93/100,000, men and women respectively) and Sweden (4.49 and 2.21/100,000), had descending period and cohort effects that decreased steeply from the earliest cohorts until those born in the 1940s, to then stabilize. Former nonmarket economy countries had mortality rates greater than 20/100,000 men and 10/100,000 women, and displayed a later start in the cohort effect fall, which continued in the younger cohorts. Mortality remained high in some countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in gastric cancer mortality was observed in both cohort and period effects but was larger in the cohorts, suggesting that the downward trends are likely to persist in countries with higher rates. In a few Western countries with very low rates an asymptote appears to have been reached for cohorts born after the 1940s, particularly in women.

Trends in dietary intake in Switzerland, 1999 to 2009.

OBJECTIVE: To assess nutrition trends of the Geneva population for the period 1999-2009. DESIGN: Bus Santé Geneva study, which conducts annual health surveys in random samples of the Geneva population. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated FFQ and trends were assessed by linear regression. SETTING: Population-based survey. SUBJECTS: Data from 9283 participants (50% women, mean age 51·5 (sd 10·8) years) were analysed. RESULTS: In both genders total energy intake decreased from 1999 to 2009, by 2·9% in men and by 6·3% in women (both trends P < 0·005). Vegetable protein and total carbohydrate intakes, expressed as a percentage of total energy intake, increased in women. MUFA intake increased while SFA, PUFA and alcohol intakes decreased in both genders. Intakes of Ca, Fe and carotene decreased in both genders. No changes in fibre, vitamin D and vitamin A intakes were found. Similar findings were obtained after excluding participants with extreme dietary intakes, except that the decreases in SFA, vegetable protein and carbohydrate were no longer significant in women. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1999 and 2009, a small decrease in total energy intake was noted in the Geneva population. Although the decrease in alcohol and SFA intakes is of interest, the decrease in Ca and Fe intakes may have adverse health effects in the future.

Trends in motor vehicle crash mortality in Europe, 1980-2007.

Recent trends (1980-2007) in mortality from road traffic crashes in European countries, and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Japan were reviewed. Data came from the World Health Organisation database. Age-standardised rates, at all ages and at 15-24, 25-64, >=65 years, were computed. Joinpoint regression analyses to evaluate significant changes in trends were performed. In the European Union as a whole rates declined from 20.2 in 1987 to 13.5/100,000 in 2007 in men, and from 6.3 to 3.7/100,000 in women; European Union rates remained lower than USA, but higher than Japanese ones. In 2007, the highest male rates were in Lithuania (36.7/100,000), the Russian Federation (35.2), Ukraine (29.8), and Latvia (28.5), and the lowest ones in the Netherlands (6.2) and Sweden (6.9); the highest female rates were in the Russian Federation (11.3), Lithuania (9.7), Belarus, Latvia, and Ukraine (around 8), and the lowest ones in Switzerland (1.7), the UK, and Nordic countries (around 2). Mortality from motor vehicle crashes declined in northern and western European countries and - though to a lesser extent - in southern European countries, too. Mortality trends were also favourable in the Czech Republic and Poland since the mid 1990's, whereas they were still upwards in Romania and the Russian Federation. No trend was observed in Hungary and Ukraine. Trends were consistent in various age groups considered. Thus, additional urgent and integrated intervention is required to prevent avoidable deaths from motor vehicle crashes, particularly in selected central and eastern European countries.

Prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles: 15 year trends and association with socio-economic status.

We assessed the 15-year trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalence of overweight in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African Region) and the relationship with socio-economic status (SES). Three population-based examination surveys were conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004. Occupation was categorized as 'labourer', 'intermediate' or 'professional'. Education was also assessed in 1994 and 2004. Between 1989 and 2004, mean BMI increased markedly in all sex and age categories (overall: 0.16 kg m(-2) per calendar year, which corresponds to 0.46 kg per calendar year). The prevalence of overweight (including obesity, BMI >or= 25 kg m(-2)) increased from 29% to 52% in men and from 50% to 67% in women. The prevalence of obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg m(-2)) increased from 4% to 15% in men and from 23% to 34% in women. Overweight was associated inversely with occupation in women and directly in men in all surveys. In multivariate analysis, overweight was associated similarly (direction and magnitude) to occupation and education. In conclusion, the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity over time in all age, sex and SES categories suggests large-scale changes in societal obesogenic factors. The sex-specific association of SES with overweight suggests that prevention measures should be tailored accordingly.

Trends in risk factors, patterns and causes in hospitalized strokes over 25 years: The Lausanne Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The Lausanne Stroke Registry includes, from 1979, all patients admitted to the department of Neurology of the Lausanne University Hospital with the diagnosis of first clinical stroke. Using the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we aimed to determine trends in risk factors, causes, localization and inhospital mortality over 25 years in hospitalized stroke patients. METHODS: We assessed temporal trends in stroke patients characteristics through the following consecutive periods: 1979-1987, 1988-1995 and 1996-2003. Age-adjusted cardiovascular risk factors, etiologies, stroke localizations and mortality were compared between the three periods. RESULTS: Overall, 5,759 patients were included. Age was significantly different among the analyzed periods (p < 0.001), showing an increment in older patients throughout time. After adjustment for age, hypercholesterolemia increased (p < 0.001), as opposed to cigarette smoking (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001) and diabetes and hyperglycemia (p < 0.001). In patients with ischemic strokes, there were significant changes in the distribution of causes with an increase in cardioembolic strokes (p < 0.001), and in the localization of strokes with an increase in entire middle cerebral artery (MCA) and posterior circulation strokes together with a decrease in superficial middle cerebral artery stroke (p < 0.001). In patients with hemorrhagic strokes, the thalamic localizations increased, whereas the proportion of striatocapsular hemorrhage decreased (p = 0.022). Except in the older patient group, the mortality rate decreased. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows major trends in the characteristics of stroke patients admitted to a department of neurology over a 25-year time span, which may result from referral biases, development of acute stroke management and possibly from the evolution of cerebrovascular risk factors.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factors (1984-1993) in a Swiss region: results of three population surveys.

BACKGROUND: This study attempted to assess the time trends in lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors in the Swiss region of Vaud-Fribourg (population 784,000). METHODS: Three surveys (1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1992/1993), based on independent representative samples (n = 3,300) of the population ages 25 to 74, were conducted within the framework of the international WHO-MONICA Project. RESULTS: The most favorable changes were observed in reported behaviors: increased physical activity in leisure time, healthier dietary habits (switch from unskimmed milk, butter, and meat to skimmed milk, margarine, and fish, with no change for fruits and vegetables), and lower prevalence of regular smoking among men (from 32 to 28%). Body mass index did not vary significantly, apart from an increase in the prevalence of obesity among men (from 11 to 15%). Total cholesterol varied only slightly, while the HDL cholesterol levels decreased steadily (from 1.37 to 1.19 mmol/L among men; from 1.59 to 1.51 among women). Average systolic blood pressure regressed among women (from 127.2 to 124.4 mm Hg), while the prevalence of untreated hypertension increased among older men. CONCLUSION: The self-reported changes in lifestyle were only partially reflected by favorable trends in objective measurements. Physical activity, even at moderate intensity, and consumption of fruits, vegetables, and fiber in general should be promoted.

Overweight in Swiss children and associations with children's and parents' characteristics et Worldwide trends in childhood obesity

(1) Surpoids chez les enfants suisses et associations avec certaines caractéristiques chez les enfants et leurs parents Le but de cette étude était de mesurer la prévalence du surpoids et de l?obésité chez les enfants de sixième année du canton de Vaud (âge moyen de 12 ans) et les facteurs associés au surpoids. Les données ont été récoltées lors d?une étude menée par l?Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive. Tous les enfants scolarisés en 6ème année à l?école publique du canton de Vaud entre septembre 2005 et mai 2006 étaient éligibles à participer à cette étude. Le taux de participation a atteint 76% (soit 5207 enfants de 12,3 ans en moyenne). Le poids et la taille des enfants ont été mesurés à l?école par des assistants de recherche et les enfants ont rempli, en classe, un questionnaire structuré sur leur mode de vie (notamment : temps quotidien passé à regarder la télévision, à jouer à des jeux sur écran; fréquence de la pratique de diverses activités physiques; fréquence de la consommation de fruits ou de légumes). Des informations sur les parents (niveau d?éducation, nationalité, poids et taille) ont été récoltées au moyen d?un questionnaire structuré envoyé par courrier à ceux-ci. Nous avons utilisé les critères de l?International Obesity Task Force, qui définit les valeurs-seuils de l'indice de masse corporelle pour le surpoids et pour l?obésité, par age et par sexe. La prévalence du surpoids (obésité incluse) dans la population était de 15% chez les garçons et de 12% chez les filles, et la prévalence de l?obésité était de 2% dans les deux sexes. Nous avons trouvé que le surpoids était associé de façon indépendante avec le temps passé à regarder la télévision, ainsi qu?avec certaines caractéristiques des parents, comme le surpoids, un bas niveau d?éducation et une nationalité étrangère. En conclusion, un enfant sur sept est en surpoids ou obèse dans le canton de Vaud. Ces chiffres indiquent un important défi de santé publique, même si cette prévalence dans le canton de Vaud est, actuellement, moindre que dans beaucoup d?autres pays d?Europe, et bien moindre qu?en Amérique du Nord. Les associations entre le surpoids infantile et le temps passé à regarder la télévision, ainsi que les associations avec des variables liées au milieu socio-culturel des parents indiquent plusieurs pistes d?intervention pour prévenir le surpoids chez les enfants. Il est probable que les mesures de prévention ne devraient pas se limiter aux approches individuelles, mais devraient aussi inclure des mesures structurelles sur l?environnement social, physique et économique visant à réduire les facteurs obésogènes dans la société.<br/><br/>Objective: The objective was to assess the prevalence of overweight and obesity in children in a canton of Switzerland and the association with various characteristics of the parents and the children. Research Methods and Procedures: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in all children of the sixth school grade of the canton of Vaud, Switzerland. Weight and height were measured, and selected lifestyle variables were assessed with a self-administered semiquantitative questionnaire. Information on children?s parents was gathered through a mailed structured questionnaire. Overweight and obesity were based on the International Obesity Task Force criteria. Results: Of 6873 eligible children, 5207 (76%) participated (2621 boys, 2586 girls; mean age, 12.3 years; standard deviation, 0.5 year). The prevalence of overweight (including obesity) was 15.0% (95% confidence interval, 13.7% to 16.4%) in boys and 12.4% (11.1% to 13.7%) in girls, and the prevalence of obesity was 1.8% (1.3% to 2.3%) and 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), respectively. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, overweight was strongly associated with high television viewing time and selected characteristics of the parents (overweight, low educational level, and foreign nationality). Discussion: The prevalence of pediatric overweight and obesity was lower in this region of Switzerland than in several European countries. The correlates of overweight found in this region suggest areas for potential interventions.

Veränderung von Inzidenz und Mortalität von Kopf-Hals-Malignomen in Rheinland-Pfalz, 2000-2009 [Changes in Incidence and Mortality Trends of Head and Neck Cancer in Rhineland-Palatinate, 2000-2009].

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on HNC are often reported aggregated despite their anatomical and histological heterogeneity. In Germany, few studies have analyzed incidence and mortality trends separately for specific anatomic sites. Furthermore, little is known about whether the incidence of HPV-associated tumour entities of the head and neck region has increased. METHODS: Based on cancer registry data from Rhineland-Palatinate from 2000 to 2009, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated for all HNC sites and localisation groups that might be HPV-associated according to the literature. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression and reported as the annual percentage change (APC). RESULTS: Throughout the study period, 8 055 incident cases and 3 177 deaths were identified. The incidence rates of overall HNC increased among women (APC:+2.2%) and declined slightly among men (- 0.9%). Significantly increasing incidence rates among women were seen for tumours of the oral cavity (+2.7%) and the oropharynx (+3.6%). Among men, a significant decrease in incidence rates for tumours of the hypopharynx (-3.4%) and the larynx (-2.7%) are noteworthy. Cancers at HPV-associated sites showed increased incidence rates in men (+3.3%) and women (+4.3%). A decrease in mortality was found for tumours of the larynx in both sexes (-5.8% men,-9.1% women). CONCLUSIONS: A detailed analysis by localisation of HNC showed significant and often opposing trends for men and women regarding incidence and mortality.

Five year trends in dyslipidaemia prevalence and management in Switzerland: The CoLaus study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Data from prospective cohorts describing dyslipidaemia prevalence and treatment trends are lacking. Using data from the prospective CoLaus study, we aimed to examine changes in serum lipid levels, dyslipidaemia prevalence and management in a population-based sample of Swiss adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardiovascular risk was assessed using PROCAM. Dyslipidaemia and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) target levels were defined according to the Swiss Group for Lipids and Atherosclerosis. Complete baseline and follow up (FU) data were available for n = 4863 subjects during mean FU time of 5.6 years. Overall, 32.1% of participants were dyslipidaemic at baseline vs 46.3% at FU (p < 0.001). During this time, lipid lowering medication (LLM) rates among dyslipidaemic subjects increased from 34.0% to 39.2% (p < 0.001). In secondary prevention, LLM rates were 42.7% at baseline and 53.2% at FU (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, LLM use among dyslipidaemic subjects, between baseline and FU, was positively associated with personal history of CVD, older age, hypertension, higher BMI and diabetes, while negatively associated with higher educational level. Among treated subjects, LDL-C target achievement was positively associated with diabetes and negatively associated with personal history of CVD and higher BMI. Among subjects treated at baseline, LLM discontinuation was negatively associated with older age, male sex, smoking, hypertension and parental history of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, the increase over time in dyslipidaemia prevalence was not paralleled by a similar increase in LLM. In a real-life setting, dyslipidaemia management remains far from optimal, both in primary and secondary prevention.

Trends and characteristics of attendance at the emergency department of a Swiss university hospital: 2002-2012.

BACKGROUND: The numbers of people attending emergency departments (EDs) at hospitals are increasing. We aimed to analyse trends in ED attendance at a Swiss university hospital between 2002 and 2012, focussing on age-related differences and hospital admission criteria. METHODS: We used hospital administrative data for all patients aged ≥16 years who attended the ED (n = 298,306) at this university hospital between 1 January 2002, and 31 December 2012. We descriptively analysed the numbers of ED visits according to the admission year and stratified by age (≥65 vs <65 years). RESULTS: People attending the ED were on average 46.6 years old (standard deviation 20 years, maximum range 16‒99 years). The annual number of ED attendances grew by n = 6,639 (27.6%) from 24,080 in 2002 to 30,719 in 2012. In the subgroup of patients aged ≥65 the relative increase was 42.3%, which is significantly higher (Pearson's χ2 = 350.046, df = 10; p = 0.000) than the relative increase of 23.4% among patients <65 years. The subgroup of patients ≥65 years attended the ED more often because of diseases (n = 56,307; 85%) than accidents (n = 9,844; 14.9%). This subgroup (patients ≥65 years) was also more often admitted to hospital (Pearson's χ2 = 23,377.190; df = 1; p = 0.000) than patients <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: ED attendance of patients ≥65 years increased in absolute and relative terms. The study findings suggest that staff of this ED may want to assess the needs of patients ≥65 years and, if necessary, adjust the services (e.g., adapted triage scales, adapted geriatric screenings, and adapted hospital admission criteria).

Prostate cancer screening in Switzerland: 20-year trends and socioeconomic disparities.

BACKGROUND: Despite important controversy in its efficacy, prostate cancer (PCa) screening has become widespread. Important socioeconomic screening disparities have been reported. However, trends in PCa screening and social disparities have not been investigated in Switzerland, a high risk country for PCa. We used data from five waves (from 1992-2012) of the population-based Swiss Health Interview Survey to evaluate trends in PCa screening and its association with socioeconomic indicators. METHODS: We used multivariable Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) adjusting for demographics, health status, and use of healthcare. RESULTS: The study included 12,034 men aged ≥50 years (mean age: 63.9). Between 1992 and 2012, ever use of PCa screening increased from 55.3% to 70.0% and its use within the last two years from 32.6% to 42.4% (p-value <0.05). Income, education, and occupational class were independently associated with PCa screening. PCa screening within the last two years was greater in men with the highest (>$6,000/month) vs. lowest income (≤$2,000) (46.5% vs. 38.7% in 2012, PR for overall period =1.29, 95%CI: 1.13-1.48). These socioeconomic disparities did not significantly change over time. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that about half of Swiss men had performed at least one PCa screening. Men belonging to high socioeconomic status are clearly more frequently screened than those less favored. Given the uncertainty of the usefulness of PCa screening, men, including those with high socioeconomic status, should be clearly informed about benefits and harms of PCa screening, in particular, the adverse effect of over-diagnosis and of associated over-treatment.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women. INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.