Policy Diffusion: An Agent-Based Approach

Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.

The policy-making structure of European regulatory networks and the domestic adoption of standards

European regulatory networks (ERNs) constitute the main governance instrument for the informal co-ordination of public regulation at the European Union (EU) level. They are in charge of co-ordinating national regulators and ensuring the implementation of harmonized regulatory policies across the EU, while also offering sector-specific expertise to the Commission. To this aim, ERNs develop 'best practices' and benchmarking procedures in the form of standards, norms and guidelines to be adopted in member states. In this paper, we focus on the Committee of European Securities Regulators and examine the consequences of the policy-making structure of ERNs on the domestic adoption of standards. We find that the regulators of countries with larger financial industries tend to occupy more central positions in the network, especially among newer member states. In turn, network centrality is associated with a more prompt domestic adoption of standards.

Hospital admission rates for alcoholic intoxication after policy changes in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland.

Background: In February, 2005, the canton of Geneva in Switzerland prohibited the off-premise sale of alcoholic beverages between 9pm and 7am, and banned their sale in gas stations and video stores. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of this policy change on hospital admission rates for alcoholic intoxication.Methods: An interrupted time series analysis of this natural experiment was performed with data on hospitalisations for acute alcoholic intoxication during the 2002-2007 period. The canton of Geneva was treated as the experimental group, while all other Swiss cantons were used as the control group.Results: In the experimental site, the policy change was found to have a significant effect on admission rates among adolescents and young adults. Depending on the age group, hospitalisation rates for alcoholic intoxication fell by an estimated 25-40% as the result of restricted alcohol availability.Conclusions: Modest restrictions on opening hours and the density of off-premise outlets were found to be of relevance for public health in the canton of Geneva. In light of this finding, policy makers should consider such action as a promising approach to alcohol prevention. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Factors Influencing Progression-Free Survival Determined From a Series of Sporadic Desmoid Tumors: A Wait-and-See Policy According to Tumor Presentation.

PURPOSE Desmoid tumors are mesenchymal fibroblastic/myofibroblastic proliferations with locoregional aggressiveness and high ability to recur after initial treatment. We present the results of the largest series of sporadic desmoid tumors ever published to determine the prognostic factors of these rare tumors. PATIENTS AND METHODS Four hundred twenty-six patients with a desmoid tumor at diagnosis were included, and the following parameters were studied: age, sex, delay between first symptoms and diagnosis, tumor size, tumor site, previous history of surgery or trauma in the area of the primary tumor, surgical margins, and context of abdominal wall desmoids in women of child-bearing age during or shortly after pregnancy. We performed univariate and multivariate analysis for progression-free survival (PFS). Results In univariate analysis, age, tumor size, tumor site, and surgical margins (R2 v R0/R1) had a significant impact on PFS. PFS curves were not significantly different for microscopic assessment of surgical resection quality (R0 v R1). In multivariate analysis, age, tumor size, and tumor site had independent values. Three prognostic groups for PFS were defined on the basis of the number of independent unfavorable prognostic factors (0 or 1, 2, and 3). CONCLUSION This study clearly demonstrates that there are different prognostic subgroups of desmoid tumors that could benefit from different therapeutic strategies, including a wait-and-see policy.

Supply-side risk adjustment and outlier payment policy

In most health care systems where a prospective payment system is implemented, an outlier payment is used to cover the hospitals' unusually high costs. When the hospital chooses its cost reduction effort before observing a patient's severity, we show that the best outlier payment is based on the realized cost when the hospital exerts the first best level of effort, for any level of severity. [Authors]

What Price Salvation? The Exchange of Salvation goods between India and the West

Does Weber's notion of salvation goods, along with the connected one of the religious market, apply to the modern history of yoga? The case study chosen here (the yoga of Pattabhi Jois) clearly shows that these notions highlight many aspects of the expansion of yoga into a global market product. However, the notion of salvation goods resists the new hermeneutical situation of encounter and has to be adapted to the present situation of religious "patchwork". The notion of religious market lacks depth to describe the various understandings and appropriations of yoga in precise historical situations. Other aspects of the current global status of yoga may be highlighted by applying the concept of pilgrimage. La notion de bien de salut que nous lègue Max Weber et la notion de marché religieux qui en découle peuvent-elles s'appliquer à l'histoire moderne du yoga? L'étude de cas que nous consacrons au yoga de Pattabhi Jois montre que ces notions éclairent bien certains aspects de l'expansion du yoga en tant que produit d'un marché globalisé. Cependant la notion de bien de salut résiste à une réflexion de type herméneutique sur les processus de rencontres et doit être adaptée à la situation contemporaine, ou` les religions se présentent comme des ensembles composites. La notion de marché religieux ne permet pas d'expliquer les diverses compréhensions et appropriations du yoga dans des situations historiques précises. D'autres aspects de la situation du yoga sont mieux explicités si on prend le concept de pèlerinage comme point de référence.