Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Social influences on fertility : a comparative mixed methods study in eastern and western Germany

This article uses a mixed methods design to investigate the effects of social influence on family formation in a sample of eastern and western German young adults at an early stage of their family formation. Theoretical propositions on the importance of informal interaction for fertility and family behavior are still rarely supported by systematic empirical evidence. Major problems are the correct identification of salient relationships and the comparability of social networks across population subgroups. This article addresses the two issues through a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. In-depth interviewing, network charts, and network grids are used to map individual personal relationships and their influence on family formation decisions. In addition, an analysis of friendship dyads is provided.

Use of flow cytometric methods for single-cell analysis in environmental microbiology

Flow cytometry (FCM) is emerging as an important tool in environmental microbiology. Although flow cytometry applications have to date largely been restricted to certain specialized fields of microbiology, such as the bacterial cell cycle and marine phytoplankton communities, technical advances in instrumentation and methodology are leading to its increased popularity and extending its range of applications. Here we will focus on a number of recent flow cytometry developments important for addressing questions in environmental microbiology. These include (i) the study of microbial physiology under environmentally relevant conditions, (ii) new methods to identify active microbial populations and to isolate previously uncultured microorganisms, and (iii) the development of high-throughput autofluorescence bioreporter assays

Disrupting the EMMPRIN (CD147)-cyclophilin A interaction reduces infarct size and preserves systolic function after myocardial ischemia and reperfusion.

Objective-Inflammation and proteolysis crucially contribute to myocardial ischemia and reperfusion injury. The extracellular matrix metalloproteinase inducer EMMPRIN (CD147) and its ligand cyclophilin A (CyPA) may be involved in both processes. The aim of the study was to characterize the role of the CD147 and CyPA interplay in myocardial ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury.Methods and Results-Immunohistochemistry showed enhanced expression of CD147 and CyPA in myocardial sections from human autopsies of patients who had died from acute myocardial infarction and from mice at 24 hours after I/R. At 24 hours and 7 days after I/R, the infarct size was reduced in CD147(+/-) mice vs CD147(+/+) mice (C57Bl/6), in mice (C57Bl/6) treated with monoclonal antibody anti-CD147 vs control monoclonal antibody, and in CyPA(-/-) mice vs CyPA(+/+) mice (129S6/SvEv), all of which are associated with reduced monocyte and neutrophil recruitment at 24 hours and with a preserved systolic function at 7 days. The combination of CyPA(-/-) mice with anti-CD147 treatment did not yield further protection compared with either inhibition strategy alone. In vitro, treatment with CyPA induced monocyte chemotaxis in a CD147-and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase-dependent manner and induced monocyte rolling and adhesion to endothelium (human umbilical vein endothelial cells) under flow in a CD147-dependent manner.Conclusion-CD147 and its ligand CyPA are inflammatory mediators after myocardial ischemia and reperfusion and represent potential targets to prevent myocardial I/R injury.

Nonlinear analysis of human physical activity patterns in health and disease.

The reliable and objective assessment of chronic disease state has been and still is a very significant challenge in clinical medicine. An essential feature of human behavior related to the health status, the functional capacity, and the quality of life is the physical activity during daily life. A common way to assess physical activity is to measure the quantity of body movement. Since human activity is controlled by various factors both extrinsic and intrinsic to the body, quantitative parameters only provide a partial assessment and do not allow for a clear distinction between normal and abnormal activity. In this paper, we propose a methodology for the analysis of human activity pattern based on the definition of different physical activity time series with the appropriate analysis methods. The temporal pattern of postures, movements, and transitions between postures was quantified using fractal analysis and symbolic dynamics statistics. The derived nonlinear metrics were able to discriminate patterns of daily activity generated from healthy and chronic pain states.

Evaluation of errors in alpine skiing video analysis

INTRODUCTION: Video records are widely used to analyze performance in alpine skiing at professional or amateur level. Parts of these analyses require the labeling of some movements (i.e. determining when specific events occur). If differences among coaches and differences for the same coach between different dates are expected, they have never been quantified. Moreover, knowing these differences is essential to determine which parameters reliable should be used. This study aimed to quantify the precision and the repeatability for alpine skiing coaches of various levels, as it is done in other fields (Koo et al, 2005). METHODS: A software similar to commercialized products was designed to allow video analyses. 15 coaches divided into 3 groups (5 amateur coaches (G1), 5 professional instructors (G2) and 5 semi-professional coaches (G3)) were enrolled. They were asked to label 15 timing parameters (TP) according to the Swiss ski manual (Terribilini et al, 2001) for each curve. TP included phases (initiation, steering I-II), body and ski movements (e.g. rotation, weighting, extension, balance). Three video sequences sampled at 25 Hz were used and one curve per video was labeled. The first video was used to familiarize the analyzer to the software. The two other videos, corresponding to slalom and giant slalom, were considered for the analysis. G1 realized twice the analysis (A1 and A2) at different dates and TP were randomized between both analyses. Reference TP were considered as the median of G2 and G3 at A1. The precision was defined as the RMS difference between individual TP and reference TP, whereas the repeatability was calculated as the RMS difference between individual TP at A1 and at A2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: For G1, G2 and G3, a precision of +/-5.6 frames, +/-3.0 and +/-2.0 frames, was respectively obtained. These results showed that G2 was more precise than G1, and G3 more precise than G2, were in accordance with group levels. The repeatability for G1 was +/-3.1 frames. Furthermore, differences among TP precision were observed, considering G2 and G3, with largest differences of +/-5.9 frames for "body counter rotation movement in steering phase II", and of 0.8 frame for "ski unweighting in initiation phase". CONCLUSION: This study quantified coach ability to label video in term of precision and repeatability. The best precision was obtained for G3 and was of +/-0.08s, which corresponds to +/-6.5% of the curve cycle. Regarding the repeatability, we obtained a result of +/-0.12s for G1, corresponding to +/-12% of the curve cycle. The repeatability of G2 and G3 are expected to be lower than the precision of G1 and the corresponding repeatability will be assessed soon. In conclusion, our results indicate that the labeling of video records is reliable for some TP, whereas caution is required for others. REFERENCES Koo S, Gold MD, Andriacchi TP. (2005). Osteoarthritis, 13, 782-789. Terribilini M, et al. (2001). Swiss Ski manual, 29-46. IASS, Lucerne.

Development of an enantioselective assay for simultaneous separation of venlafaxine and O-desmethylvenlafaxine by micellar electrokinetic chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry: Application to the analysis of drug-drug interaction.

To-date, there has been no effective chiral capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry (CE-MS) method reported for the simultaneous enantioseparation of the antidepressant drug, venlafaxine (VX) and its structurally-similar major metabolite, O-desmethylvenlafaxine (O-DVX). This is mainly due to the difficulty of identifying MS compatible chiral selector, which could provide both high enantioselectivity and sensitive MS detection. In this work, poly-sodium N-undecenoyl-L,L-leucylalaninate (poly-L,L-SULA) was employed as a chiral selector after screening several dipeptide polymeric chiral surfactants. Baseline separation of both O-DVX and VX enantiomers was achieved in 15min after optimizing the buffer pH, poly-L,L-SULA concentration, nebulizer pressure and separation voltage. Calibration curves in spiked plasma (recoveries higher than 80%) were linear over the concentration range 150-5000ng/mL for both VX and O-DVX. The limit of detection (LOD) was found to be as low as 30ng/mL and 21ng/mL for O-DVX and VX, respectively. This method was successfully applied to measure the plasma concentrations of human volunteers receiving VX or O-DVX orally when co-administered without and with indinivar therapy. The results suggest that micellar electrokinetic chromatography electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry (MEKC-ESI-MS/MS) is an effective low cost alternative technique for the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics studies of both O-DVX and VX enantiomers. The technique has potential to identify drug-drug interaction involving VX and O-DVX enantiomers while administering indinivar therapy.