Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Psychosocial Quality-of-Life, Lifestyle and Adiposity: A Longitudinal Study in Pre-schoolers (Ballabeina Study).

PURPOSE: In obesity prevention, understanding psychosocial influences in early life is pivotal. Reviews reported contradictory results and a lack of longitudinal studies focusing on underlying lifestyle factors. This study tested whether psychosocial Quality-Of-Life (QOL) was associated with pre-schoolers' lifestyle and adiposity changes over one school year and whether lifestyle moderated the latter. It was hypothesised that QOL might not impact adiposity in everybody but that this might depend on preceding lifestyle. METHOD: Longitudinal data from 291 Swiss pre-schoolers (initially 3.9-6.3 years) was available. The following measures were used in longitudinal regressions: psychosocial QOL by PedsQL, adiposity (BMI z-score, waist, fat%), diet (food frequency), sedentary time and accelerometer-based activity. RESULTS: Concerning lifestyle, low psychosocial QOL was only related to unfavourable changes in diet (less fruit β = 0.21 and more fat intake β = -0.28) and lower physical activity (β = 0.21). Longitudinal QOL-adiposity relations appeared only after moderation by lifestyle factors (beta-range 0.13-0.67). Low psychosocial QOL was associated with increased adiposity in children with an unhealthy diet intake or high sedentary time. By contrast, low psychosocial QOL was associated with decreasing adiposity in high fruit consumers or more physically active pre-schoolers. CONCLUSION: Results emphasise the need for testing moderation in the QOL-adiposity relation. An unhealthy diet can be a vulnerability factor and high physical activity a protective factor in QOL-related adiposity. Consequently, QOL and lifestyle should be targeted concurrently in multi-factorial obesity prevention. The environment should be an 'activity encouraging, healthy food zone' that minimises opportunities for stress-induced eating. In addition, appropriate stress coping skills should be acquired.