Proactive motivation and engagement in career behaviors: Investigating direct, mediated, and moderated effects

Proactive career behaviors become increasingly important in today's career environment, but little is known about how and when motivational patterns affect individual differences. In a six-month longitudinal study among German university students (Study 1; N = 289) it was demonstrated that motivation in terms of "can do" (self-efficacy and context beliefs), "reason to" (autonomous career goals), and "energized to" (positive affect) significantly predicted career behaviors. Contrary to expectation, negative context beliefs had a positive effect when combined with other motivational states. Study 2 replicated and extended those results by investigating whether "can do" motivation mediates the effect of proactive personality and whether those effects are conditional upon the degree of career choice decidedness. We tested a moderated multiple mediation model with a unique sample of 134 German students, assessed three times, each interval being 6 weeks apart. The results showed that effects of proactivity were partially carried through higher self-efficacy beliefs but not context beliefs. Supporting a moderation model, indirect effects through self-efficacy beliefs were not present for students with very low decidedness.

Simultaneous loss of beta- and gamma-catenin does not perturb hematopoiesis or lymphopoiesis.

Hematopietic stem cells (HSCs) maintain life-long hematopoiesis in the bone marrow via their ability to self-renew and to differentiate into all blood lineages. Although a central role for the canonical wnt signaling pathway has been suggested in HSC self-renewal as well as in the development of B and T cells, conditional deletion of beta-catenin (which is considered to be essential for Wnt signaling) has no effect on hematopoiesis or lymphopoiesis. Here, we address whether this discrepancy can be explained by a redundant and compensatory function of gamma-catenin, a close homolog of beta-catenin. Unexpectedly, we find that combined deficiency of beta- and gamma-catenin in hematopoietic progenitors does not impair their ability to self-renew and to reconstitute all myeloid, erythroid, and lymphoid lineages, even in competitive mixed chimeras and serial transplantations. These results exclude an essential role for canonical Wnt signaling (as mediated by beta- and/or gamma-catenin) during hematopoiesis and lymphopoiesis.

Bureaucracy and the flypaper effect : Evidence from intercommunal fiscal equalisation in the canton of Vaud

Unlike classical theoretical expectations, our empirical study shows that financial transfers to decentralised governments increase local public expenditures much more than would be triggered by an equivalent rise in local income. This empirical evidence of the presence of a flypaper effect is achieved using panel data from 375 municipalities located in the Swiss canton of Vaud covering the period 1994 to 2005. During that time there was a major change in the financial equalisation scheme. Furthermore, our study confirms the analysis of the public choice theory: the effect depends partly on the degree of complexity of the municipal bureaucracy. These results show that local bureaucratic behaviour may impede the effectiveness of a financial equalisation scheme that aims to reduce disparities in local tax.

Intravitreal chemotherapy for vitreous disease in retinoblastoma revisited: from prohibition to conditional indications.

BACKGROUND: Tumour control of vitreous seeds remains challenging owing to their resistance to radiation and systemic chemotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To describe the short-term efficacy of intravitreal melphalan for vitreous disease in retinoblastoma using a new injection technique and dose. METHODS: This study is a retrospective non-comparative review of 23 consecutive heavily pretreated patients (23 eyes) with active vitreous seeding and eligible for intravitreous chemotherapy (IViC). They received a total of 122 intravitreal injections of melphalan (20-30 μg) given every 7-10 days. The ocular status was objectively monitored under anaesthesia with fundus photography. RESULTS: All patients are alive without evidence of extraocular spread (95% CI 82.19% to 100%). Concomitant treatments, including other chemotherapeutic modalities, were used until complete sterilisation of the retinal seeding source and subretinal seeds. Globe retention was achieved in 87% (20/23) of cases. All retained eyes were in complete remission after a median follow-up period of 22 months (range 9-31 months). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of ocular survival rates at 2 years was 84.14% (95% CI 62.48% to 95.28%). A localised peripheral salt-and-pepper retinopathy was noted in 10 eyes (43%) at the site of injection. CONCLUSIONS: This study reports the first clinically documented case series of patients with retinoblastoma treated with IViC. Despite a possible confounding effect of concomitant chemotherapy prescription using other routes of administration in four of the successfully treated eyes (20%), IViC achieved an unprecedented success rate of tumour control in the presence of vitreous seeding. Of note, none of the treated eyes required external beam irradiation to control the vitreous seeding. Further studies are required to assess IViC retinal toxicity and to better delineate its role in the management of retinoblastoma.

Conditional Involvement of CONSTITUTIVE PHOTOMORPHOGENIC1 in the Degradation of Phytochrome A.

All higher plants possess multiple phytochrome photoreceptors, with phytochrome A (phyA) being light labile and other members of the family being relatively light stable (phyB-phyE in Arabidopsis [Arabidopsis thaliana]). phyA also differs from other members of the family because it enables plants to deetiolate in far-red light-rich environments typical of dense vegetational cover. Later in development, phyA counteracts the shade avoidance syndrome. Light-induced degradation of phyA favors the establishment of a robust shade avoidance syndrome and was proposed to be important for phyA-mediated deetiolation in far-red light. phyA is ubiquitylated and targeted for proteasome-mediated degradation in response to light. Cullin1 and the ubiquitin E3 ligase CONSTITUTIVE PHOTOMORPHOGENIC1 (COP1) have been implicated in this process. Here, we systematically analyze the requirement of cullins in this process and show that only CULLIN1 plays an important role in light-induced phyA degradation. In addition, the role of COP1 in this process is conditional and depends on the presence of metabolizable sugar in the growth medium. COP1 acts with SUPPRESSOR OF PHYTOCHROME A (SPA) proteins. Unexpectedly, the light-induced decline of phyA levels is reduced in spa mutants irrespective of the growth medium, suggesting a COP1-independent role for SPA proteins.

Analysis of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells by defined MHC-peptide complexes

MHC class II-peptide multimers are important tools for the detection, enumeration and isolation of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cells. However, their erratic and often poor performance impeded their broad application and thus in-depth analysis of key aspects of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cell responses. In the first part of this thesis we demonstrate that a major cause for poor MHC class II tetramer staining performance is incomplete peptide loading on MHC molecules. We observed that peptide binding affinity for "empty" MHC class II molecules poorly correlates with peptide loading efficacy. Addition of a His-tag or desthiobiotin (DTB) at the peptide N-terminus allowed us to isolate "immunopure" MHC class II-peptide monomers by affinity chromatography; this significantly, often dramatically, improved tetramer staining of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cells. Insertion of a photosensitive amino acid between the tag and the peptide, permitted removal of the tag from "immunopure" MHC class II-peptide complex by UV irradiation, and hence elimination of its potential interference with TCR and/or MHC binding. Moreover, to improve loading of self and tumor antigen- derived peptides onto "empty" MHC II molecules, we first loaded these with a photocleavable variant of the influenza A hemagglutinin peptide HA306-318 and subsequently exchanged it with a poorly loading peptide (e.g. NY-ESO-1119-143) upon photolysis of the conditional ligand. Finally, we established a novel type of MHC class II multimers built on reversible chelate formation between 2xHis-tagged MHC molecules and a fluorescent nitrilotriacetic acid (NTA)-containing scaffold. Staining of antigen-specific CD4+ Τ cells with "NTAmers" is fully reversible and allows gentle cell sorting. In the second part of the thesis we investigated the role of the CD8α transmembrane domain (TMD) for CD8 coreceptor function. The sequence of the CD8α TMD, but not the CD8β TMD, is highly conserved and homodimerizes efficiently. We replaced the CD8α TMD with the one of the interleukin-2 receptor a chain (CD8αTac) and thus ablated CD8α TMD interactions. We observed that ΤΙ Τ cell hybridomas expressing CD8αTacβ exhibited severely impaired intracellular calcium flux, IL-2 responses and Kd/PbCS(ABA) P255A tetramer binding. By means of fluorescence resonance energy transfer experiments (FRET) we established that CD8αTacβ associated with TCR:CD3 considerably less efficiently than CD8αβ, both in the presence and the absence of Kd/PbCS(ABA) complexes. Moreover, we observed that CD8αTacβ partitioned substantially less in lipid rafts, and related to this, associated less efficiently with p56Lck (Lck), a Src kinase that plays key roles in TCR proximal signaling. Our results support the view that the CD8α TMD promotes the formation of CD8αβP-CD8αβ dimers on cell surfaces. Because these contain two CD8β chains and that CD8β, unlike CD8α, mediates association of CD8 with TCR:CD3 as well as with lipid rafts and hence with Lck, we propose that the CD8αTMD plays an important and hitherto unrecognized role for CD8 coreceptor function, namely by promoting CD8αβ dimer formation. We discuss what implications this might have on TCR oligomerization and TCR signaling. - Les multimères de complexes MHC classe II-peptide sont des outils importants pour la détection, le dénombrement et l'isolation des cellules Τ CD4+ spécifiques pour un antigène d'intérêt. Cependant, leur performance erratique et souvent inadéquate a empêché leur utilisation généralisée, limitant ainsi l'analyse des aspects clés des réponses des lymphocytes Τ CD4+. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous montrons que la cause principale de la faible efficacité des multimères de complexes MHC classe II-peptide est le chargement incomplet des molécules MHC par des peptides. Nous montrons également que l'affinité du peptide pour la molécule MHC classe II "vide" n'est pas nécessairement liée au degré du chargement. Grâce à l'introduction d'une étiquette d'histidines (His-tag) ou d'une molécule de desthiobiotine à l'extrémité N-terminale du peptide, des monomères MHC classe II- peptide dits "immunopures" ont pu être isolés par chromatographic d'affinité. Ceci a permis d'améliorer significativement et souvent de façon spectaculaire, le marquage des cellules Τ CD4+ spécifiques pour un antigène d'intérêt. L'insertion d'un acide aminé photosensible entre l'étiquette et le peptide a permis la suppression de l'étiquette du complexe MHC classe- Il peptide "immunopure" par irradiation aux UV, éliminant ainsi de potentielles interférences de liaison au TCR et/ou au MHC. De plus, afin d'améliorer le chargement des molécules MHC classe II "vides" avec des peptides dérivés d'auto-antigènes ou d'antigènes tumoraux, nous avons tout d'abord chargé les molécules MHC "vides" avec un analogue peptidique photoclivable issu du peptide HA306-318 de l'hémagglutinine de la grippe de type A, puis, sous condition de photolyse, nous l'avons échangé avec de peptides à chargement faible (p.ex. NY-ESO-1119-143). Finalement, nous avons construit un nouveau type de multimère réversible, appelé "NTAmère", basé sur la formation chélatante reversible entre les molécules MHC-peptide étiquettés par 2xHis et un support fluorescent contenant des acides nitrilotriacetiques (NTA). Le marquage des cellules Τ CD4+ spécifiques pour un antigène d'intérêt avec les "NTAmères" est pleinement réversible et permet également un tri cellulaire plus doux. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse nous avons étudié le rôle du domaine transmembranaire (TMD) du CD8α pour la fonction coréceptrice du CD8. La séquence du TMD du CD8α, mais pas celle du TMD du CD8β, est hautement conservée et permet une homodimérisation efficace. Nous avons remplacé le TMD du CD8α avec celui de la chaîne α du récepteur à l'IL-2 (CD8αTac), éliminant ainsi les interactions du TMD du CD8α. Nous avons montré que les cellules des hybridomes Τ T1 exprimant le CD8αTacβ présentaient une atteinte sévère du flux du calcium intracellulaire, des réponses d'IL-2 et de la liaison des tétramères Kd/PbCS(ABA) P255A. Grâce aux expériences de transfert d'énergie entre molécules fluorescentes (FRET), nous avons montré que l'association du CD8αTacβ avec le TCR:CD3 est considérablement moins efficace qu'avec le CD8αβ, et ceci aussi bien en présence qu'en absence de complexes Kd/PbCS(ABA). De plus, nous avons observé que le CD8αTacβ se distribuait beaucoup moins bien dans les radeaux lipidiques, engendrant ainsi, une association moins efficace avec p56Lck (Lck), une kinase de la famille Src qui joue un rôle clé dans la signalisation proximale du TCR. Nos résultats soutiennent l'hypothèse que le TMD du CD8αβ favorise la formation des dimères de CD8αβ à la surface des cellules. Parce que ces derniers contiennent deux chaînes CD8β et que CD8β, contrairement à CD8α, favorise l'association du CD8 au TCR:CD3 aussi bien qu'aux radeaux lipidiques et par conséquent à Lck, nous proposons que le TMD du CD8α joue un rôle important, jusqu'alors inconnu, pour la fonction coreceptrice du CD8, en encourageant la formation des dimères CD8αβ. Nous discutons des implications possibles sur l'oligomerisation du TCR et la signalisation du TCR.

Intraspecific competition reveals conditional fitness effects of single gene polymorphism at the Arabidopsis root growth regulator BRX.

Intraspecific genetic variation for morphological traits is observed in many organisms. In Arabidopsis thaliana, alleles responsible for intraspecific morphological variation are increasingly being identified. However, the fitness consequences remain unclear in most cases. Here, the fitness effects of alleles of the BRX gene are investigated. A brx loss-of-function allele, which was found in a natural accession, results in a highly branched but poorly elongated root system. Comparison between the control accession Sav-0 and an introgression of brx into this background (brxS) indicated that, surprisingly, brx loss of function did not negatively affect fitness in pure stands. However, in mixed, well-watered stands brxS performance and reproductive output decreased significantly, as the proportion of Sav-0 neighbors increased. Additional comparisons between brxS and a brxS line that was complemented by a BRX transgene confirmed a direct effect of the loss-of-function allele on plant performance, as indicated by restored competitive ability of the transgenic genotype. Further, because plant height was very similar across genotypes and because the experimental setup largely excluded shading effects, the impaired competitiveness of the brx loss-of-function genotype likely reflects below-ground competition. In summary, these data reveal conditional fitness effects of a single gene polymorphism in response to intraspecific competition in Arabidopsis.

Association of different lipid measures for atherogenic lipid fractions and risk of coronary events in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

Integration of high-resolution geophysical data for the characterization of alluvial aquifers : new approaches and implications for hydrological predictions

Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.

Loss of the BMP Antagonist, SMOC-1, Causes Ophthalmo-Acromelic (Waardenburg Anophthalmia) Syndrome in Humans and Mice.

Ophthalmo-acromelic syndrome (OAS), also known as Waardenburg Anophthalmia syndrome, is defined by the combination of eye malformations, most commonly bilateral anophthalmia, with post-axial oligosyndactyly. Homozygosity mapping and subsequent targeted mutation analysis of a locus on 14q24.2 identified homozygous mutations in SMOC1 (SPARC-related modular calcium binding 1) in eight unrelated families. Four of these mutations are nonsense, two frame-shift, and two missense. The missense mutations are both in the second Thyroglobulin Type-1 (Tg1) domain of the protein. The orthologous gene in the mouse, Smoc1, shows site- and stage-specific expression during eye, limb, craniofacial, and somite development. We also report a targeted pre-conditional gene-trap mutation of Smoc1 (Smoc1(tm1a)) that reduces mRNA to ∼10% of wild-type levels. This gene-trap results in highly penetrant hindlimb post-axial oligosyndactyly in homozygous mutant animals (Smoc1(tm1a/tm1a)). Eye malformations, most commonly coloboma, and cleft palate occur in a significant proportion of Smoc1(tm1a/tm1a) embryos and pups. Thus partial loss of Smoc-1 results in a convincing phenocopy of the human disease. SMOC-1 is one of the two mammalian paralogs of Drosophila Pentagone, an inhibitor of decapentaplegic. The orthologous gene in Xenopus laevis, Smoc-1, also functions as a Bone Morphogenic Protein (BMP) antagonist in early embryogenesis. Loss of BMP antagonism during mammalian development provides a plausible explanation for both the limb and eye phenotype in humans and mice.

TAK1 is required for survival of mouse fibroblasts treated with TRAIL, and does so by NF-kappaB dependent induction of cFLIPL.

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) is known as a "death ligand"-a member of the TNF superfamily that binds to receptors bearing death domains. As well as causing apoptosis of certain types of tumor cells, TRAIL can activate both NF-kappaB and JNK signalling pathways. To determine the role of TGF-beta-Activated Kinase-1 (TAK1) in TRAIL signalling, we analyzed the effects of adding TRAIL to mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) derived from TAK1 conditional knockout mice. TAK1-/- MEFs were significantly more sensitive to killing by TRAIL than wild-type MEFs, and failed to activate NF-kappaB or JNK. Overexpression of IKK2-EE, a constitutive activator of NF-kappaB, protected TAK1-/- MEFs against TRAIL killing, suggesting that TAK1 activation of NF-kappaB is critical for the viability of cells treated with TRAIL. Consistent with this model, TRAIL failed to induce the survival genes cIAP2 and cFlipL in the absence of TAK1, whereas activation of NF-kappaB by IKK2-EE restored the levels of both proteins. Moreover, ectopic expression of cFlipL, but not cIAP2, in TAK1-/- MEFs strongly inhibited TRAIL-induced cell death. These results indicate that cells that survive TRAIL treatment may do so by activation of a TAK1-NF-kappaB pathway that drives expression of cFlipL, and suggest that TAK1 may be a good target for overcoming TRAIL resistance.

In vivo fate mapping with SCL regulatory elements identifies progenitors for primitive and definitive hematopoiesis in mice.

One of the principal issues facing biomedical research is to elucidate developmental pathways and to establish the fate of stem and progenitor cells in vivo. Hematopoiesis, the process of blood cell formation, provides a powerful experimental system for investigating this process. Here, we employ transcriptional regulatory elements from the stem cell leukemia (SCL) gene to selectively label primitive and definitive hematopoiesis. We report that SCL-labelled cells arising in the mid to late streak embryo give rise to primitive red blood cells but fail to contribute to the vascular system of the developing embryo. Restricting SCL-marking to different stages of foetal development, we identify a second population of multilineage progenitors, proficient in contributing to adult erythroid, myeloid and lymphoid cells. The distinct lineage-restricted potential of SCL-labelled early progenitors demonstrates that primitive erythroid cell fate specification is initiated during mid gastrulation. Our data also suggest that the transition from a hemangioblastic precursors with endothelial and blood forming potential to a committed hematopoietic progenitor must have occurred prior to SCL-marking of definitive multilineage blood precursors.

Human chorionic gonadotropin in pregnancy and maternal risk of breast cancer.

Full-term pregnancies are associated with long-term reductions in maternal risk of breast cancer, but the biological determinants of the protection are unknown. Experimental observations suggest that human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), a major hormone of pregnancy, could play a role in this association. A case-control study (242 cases and 450 controls) nested within the Northern Sweden Maternity Cohort included women who had donated a blood sample during the first trimester of a first full-term pregnancy. Total hCG was determined on Immulite 2000 analyzer. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated through conditional logistic regression. Maternal breast cancer risk decreased with increasing hCG (upper tertile OR, 0.67; CI, 0.46-0.99), especially for pregnancies before age 25 (upper tertile OR, 0.41; CI, 0.21-0.80). The association diverged according to age at diagnosis: risk was reduced after age 40 (upper tertile OR, 0.60; CI, 0.39-0.91) and seemed to increase before age 40 (upper tertile OR, 1.78; CI, 0.72-4.38). Risk was reduced among those diagnosed 10 years or longer after blood draw (upper tertile OR, 0.60; CI, 0.40-0.90), but not so among those diagnosed within 10 years (upper tertile OR, 4.33; CI, 0.86-21.7). These observations suggest that the association between pregnancy hCG and subsequent maternal risk of breast cancer is modified by age at diagnosis. Although the hormone seems to be a determinant of the reduced risk around or after age 50, it might not confer protection against, or it could even increase the risk of, cancers diagnosed in the years immediately following pregnancy.

Lung cancer in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: role of smoking, immunodeficiency and pulmonary infection.

BACKGROUND: Immunodeficiency and AIDS-related pulmonary infections have been suggested as independent causes of lung cancer among HIV-infected persons, in addition to smoking. METHODS: A total of 68 lung cancers were identified in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) or through linkage with Swiss Cancer Registries (1985-2010), and were individually matched to 337 controls by centre, gender, HIV-transmission category, age and calendar period. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 96.2% of lung cancers and 72.9% of controls were ever smokers, confirming the high prevalence of smoking and its strong association with lung cancer (OR for current vs never=14.4, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.36-62.1). No significant associations were observed between CD4+ cell count and lung cancer, neither when measured within 1 year (OR for <200 vs ≥500=1.21, 95% CI: 0.49-2.96) nor further back in time, before lung cancer diagnosis. Combined antiretroviral therapy was not significantly associated with lung cancer (OR for ever vs never=0.67, 95% CI: 0.29-1.52), and nor was a history of AIDS with (OR=0.49, 95% CI: 0.19-1.28) or without (OR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.24-1.18) pulmonary involvement. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer in the SHCS does not seem to be clearly associated with immunodeficiency or AIDS-related pulmonary disease, but seems to be attributable to heavy smoking.

Using graphical probability analysis (Bayes Nets) to evaluate a conditional DNA inclusion

This paper discusses the analysis of cases in which the inclusion or exclusion of a particular suspect, as a possible contributor to a DNA mixture, depends on the value of a variable (the number of contributors) that cannot be determined with certainty. It offers alternative ways to deal with such cases, including sensitivity analysis and object-oriented Bayesian networks, that separate uncertainty about the inclusion of the suspect from uncertainty about other variables. The paper presents a case study in which the value of DNA evidence varies radically depending on the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: if there are two contributors, the suspect is excluded; if there are three or more, the suspect is included; but the number of contributors cannot be determined with certainty. It shows how an object-oriented Bayesian network can accommodate and integrate varying perspectives on the unknown variable and how it can reduce the potential for bias by directing attention to relevant considerations and distinguishing different sources of uncertainty. It also discusses the challenge of presenting such evidence to lay audiences.