Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

Trabecular bone score improves fracture risk prediction in non-osteoporotic women: the OFELY study.

The use of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) for fracture prediction may be enhanced by considering bone microarchitectural deterioration. Trabecular bone score (TBS) helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group. INTRODUCTION: TBS is an index of bone microarchitecture. Our goal was to assess the ability of TBS to predict incident fracture. METHODS: TBS was assessed in 560 postmenopausal women from the Os des Femmes de Lyon cohort, who had a lumbar spine (LS) DXA scan (QDR 4500A, Hologic) between years 2000 and 2001. During a mean follow-up of 7.8 ± 1.3 years, 94 women sustained 112 fragility fractures. RESULTS: At the time of baseline DXA scan, women with incident fracture were significantly older (70 ± 9 vs. 65 ± 8 years) and had a lower LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (both -0.4SD, p < 0.001) than women without fracture. The magnitude of fracture prediction was similar for LS_aBMD and LS_TBS (odds ratio [95 % confidence interval] = 1.4 [1.2;1.7] and 1.6 [1.2;2.0]). After adjustment for age and prevalent fracture, LS_TBS remained predictive of an increased risk of fracture. Yet, its addition to age, prevalent fracture, and LS_aBMD did not reach the level of significance to improve the fracture prediction. When using the WHO classification, 39 % of fractures occurred in osteoporotic women, 46 % in osteopenic women, and 15 % in women with T-score > -1. Thirty-seven percent of fractures occurred in the lowest quartile of LS_TBS, regardless of BMD. Moreover, 35 % of fractures that occurred in osteopenic women were classified below this LS_TBS threshold. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, LS_aBMD and LS_TBS predicted fractures equally well. In our cohort, the addition of LS_TBS to age and LS_aBMD added only limited information on fracture risk prediction. However, using the lowest quartile of LS_TBS helped in redefining a significant subset of non-osteoporotic women as a higher risk group which is important for patient management.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric estimation of pulse arrival time: a robust approach to pulse wave velocity.

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a surrogate of arterial stiffness and represents a non-invasive marker of cardiovascular risk. The non-invasive measurement of PWV requires tracking the arrival time of pressure pulses recorded in vivo, commonly referred to as pulse arrival time (PAT). In the state of the art, PAT is estimated by identifying a characteristic point of the pressure pulse waveform. This paper demonstrates that for ambulatory scenarios, where signal-to-noise ratios are below 10 dB, the performance in terms of repeatability of PAT measurements through characteristic points identification degrades drastically. Hence, we introduce a novel family of PAT estimators based on the parametric modeling of the anacrotic phase of a pressure pulse. In particular, we propose a parametric PAT estimator (TANH) that depicts high correlation with the Complior(R) characteristic point D1 (CC = 0.99), increases noise robustness and reduces by a five-fold factor the number of heartbeats required to obtain reliable PAT measurements.

Swallowed topical corticosteroids reduce the risk for long-lasting bolus impactions in eosinophilic esophagitis.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting food impactions requiring endoscopic bolus removal occur frequently in patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) and harbor a risk for severe esophageal injuries. We evaluated whether treatment with swallowed topical corticosteroids is able to reduce the risk of occurrence of this complication. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Swiss EoE Cohort Study. Patients with yearly clinic visits, during which standardized assessment of symptoms, endoscopic, histologic, and laboratory findings was carried out, were included. RESULTS: A total of 206 patients (157 males) were analyzed. The median follow-up time was 5 years with a total of 703 visits (mean 3.41 visits/patient). During the follow-up period, 33 patients (16 % of the cohort) experienced 42 impactions requiring endoscopic bolus removal. We evaluated the following factors regarding the outcome 'bolus impaction' by univariate logistic regression modeling: swallowed topical corticosteroid therapy (OR 0.503, 95%-CI 0.255-0.993, P = 0.048), presence of EoE symptoms (OR 1.150, 95%-CI 0.4668-2.835, P = 0.761), esophageal stricture (OR 2.832, 95%-CI 1.508-5.321, P = 0.001), peak eosinophil count >10 eosinophils/HPF (OR 0.724, 95%-CI 0.324-1.621, P = 0.433), blood eosinophilia (OR 1.532, 95%-CI 0.569-4.118, P = 0.398), and esophageal dilation (OR 1.852, 95%-CI 1.034-3.755, P = 0.017). In the multivariate model, the following factors were significantly associated with bolus impaction: swallowed topical corticosteroid therapy (OR 0.411, 95%-CI 0.203-0.835, P = 0.014) and esophageal stricture (OR 2.666, 95%-CI 1.259-5.645, P = 0.01). Increasing frequency of use of swallowed topical steroids was associated with a lower risk for bolus impactions. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of EoE with swallowed topical corticosteroids significantly reduces the risk for long-lasting bolus impactions.

Predicting outcome after acute basilar artery occlusion based on admission characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.

On-pump beating heart coronary surgery for high risk patients requiring emergency multiple coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) with aortic cross-clamping and cardioplegic arrest remains the method of choice for patients requiring standard myocardial revascularization. Therefore, very high-risk patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome, unstable angina, onset of cardiac decompensation and requiring emergency multiple myocardial revascularization, can have a poor outcome. The on-pump beating heart technique can reduce the mortality and the morbidity in such a selected group of patients and this report describes our clinical experience. METHODS: Out of 290 patients operated for CABG from January 2005 to January 2006, 25 (8.6%) selected high-risk patients suffering from life threatening coronary syndrome (mean age 69 +/- 7 years) and requiring emergency multiple myocardial revascularization, underwent on-pump beating heart surgery. The mean pre-operative left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) was 27 +/- 8%. The majority of them (88%) suffered of tri-vessel coronary disease and 6 (24%) had a left main stump disease. Nine patients (35%) were on severe cardiac failure and seven among them (28%) received a pre-operative intra-aortic balloon pump. The pre-operative EuroScore rate was equal or above 8 in 18 patients (73%). RESULTS: All patients underwent on-pump-beating heart coronary revascularization. The mean number of graft/patient was 2.9 +/- 0.6 and the internal mammary artery was used in 23 patients (92%). The mean CPB time was 84 +/- 19 minutes. Two patients died during the recovery stay in the intensive care unit, and there were no postoperative myocardial infarctions between the survivors. Eight patients suffered of transitorily renal failure and 1 patient developed a sternal wound infection. The mean hospital stay was 12 +/- 7 days. The follow-up was complete for all 23 patients survived at surgery and the mean follow-up time was 14 +/- 5 months. One patient died during the follow-up for cardiac arrest and 2 patients required an implantable cardiac defibrillator. One year after surgery they all had a standard trans-thoracic echocardiogram showing a mean LVEF rate of 36 +/- 11.8%. CONCLUSION: Standard on-pump arrested heart coronary surgery has higher mortality and morbidity in emergencies. The on-pump beating heart myocardial revascularization seems to be a valid alternative for the restricted and selected cohort of patients suffering from life threatening coronary syndrome and requiring multiple emergency CABG.

Sib-sib communication and the risk of prey theft in the barn owl Tyto alba

Conflicts among siblings are widespread and their resolution involves complex physical and communication tools. Observations in the barn owl Tyto alba showed that siblings vocally communicate in the absence of parents to negotiate priority of access to the impending food resources that parents will bring. In the present paper, we hypothesize and provide correlative evidence that after a parent brought a food item to their progeny, sibling competition involves vocal sib-sib communication. A food item takes a long time to be entirely consumed, and hence siblings continue to compete over prey monopolization even after parents gave a food item to a single offspring. When physical competition is pronounced and thereby the risk of prey theft is high, the individual that received a prey item consumes it in a concealed place. Concomitantly, nestlings vocalize intensely probably to indicate their motivation to siblings to not share their food item, since this vocal behaviour was particularly frequent in younger individuals for which the risk of being robbed is higher than in their older siblings. Furthermore, nestlings consumed more rapidly a food item when their siblings vocalized intensely presumably because the intensity of siblings' vocalizations is associated with a risk of prey theft. Our correlative study suggests that sibling competition favoured the evolution of sib-sib communication under a wide range of situations.

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm

Le rétinoblastome (Rb) est une tumeur provenant des cellules rétiniennes progénitrices des photorécepteurs. C'est la tumeur pédiatrique maligne la plus fréquente avec une incidence par naissance évaluée entre 1/15Ό00 et 1/20Ό00. Les enfants atteints de Rb sont diagnostiqué dans leur grande majorité avant l'âge de 4 ans, soit le temps nécessaire à la différentiation et à la maturation des photorécepteurs et donc à la disparition de la cellule d'origine du Rb. La survie du patient, la sauvegarde oculaire et le pronostic visuel restent excellents pour autant que le traitement ne soit pas différé. Dans sa variante non héréditaire (60%) le Rb est toujours unilatéral et sporadique. Le Rb héréditaire de transmission dominante autosomique (40%), se décline sous toutes les formes, familiale (10%) ou sporadique (30%), que l'atteinte soit unilatérale ou bilatérale. La majorité des mutations causales sont uniques et distribuées de façon aléatoire sur la totalité du gène RB1 sans région prédisposante. La détection de ces mutations est couteuse et chronophage, tout en présentant un taux de détection relativement bas; surtout dans les cas de Rb sporadiques unilatéraux. Dans le but d'identifier les patients présentant un risque réel de développer un Rb, et de réduire le nombre d'examens sous narcose requis pour le dépistage de la maladie chez les sujets à risque, nous avons développé une stratégie sensible, rapide, efficace et peu couteuse basée sur une analyse de l'haplotype intragénique. Cet algorithme prend en compte a) la perte d'hétérozygotie intratumorale du gène RB1, b) l'origine paternelle préférentielle des nouvelles mutations germinales et c) un risque a priori dérivé des données empiriques de Vogel. Pendant la période allant de janvier 1994 à décembre 2006, nous avons comparé l'apparition de nouveau Rb parmi la fratrie et la descendance de patient atteints au nombre de nouveaux cas attendus calculé par notre algorithme. 134 familles ont été étudiées. L'analyse moléculaire a été effectuée chez 570 personnes dont 99 patients âgés de moins de 4 ans et donc à risque de développer un Rb. Parmi cette cohorte, nous avons observé l'apparition d'un cas de Rb, alors que les risques cumulés a posteriori calculé par notre algorithme prédisait l'apparition de 1.77 nouveau cas. Dans cette étude, nous avons pu valider notre algorithme prédisant la récurrence de Rb chez les parents de 1er degré de patients atteints. Cet outil devrait grandement faciliter le conseil génétique ainsi que le suivi des patients à risque de développer un Rb, surtout dans les cas ou le séquençage direct du gène RB1 n'est pas disponible ou est resté non informatif. - Purpose: Most RBI mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RBI gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblas-toma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. Methods: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RBI loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. Results: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. Conclusions: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RBI screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

Prophylactic isolated limb perfusion for localized, high-risk limb melanoma: results of a multicenter randomized phase III trial. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Malignant Melanoma Cooperative Group Protocol 18832, the World Health Organization Melanoma Program Trial 15, and the North American Perfusion Group Southwest Oncology Group-8593.

PURPOSE: Patients with primary cutaneous melanoma > or = 1.5 mm in thickness are at high risk of having regional micrometastases at the time of initial surgical treatment. A phase III international study was designed to evaluate whether prophylactic isolated limb perfusion (ILP) could prevent regional recurrence and influence survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 832 assessable patients from 16 centers entered the study; 412 were randomized to wide excision (WE) only and 420 to WE plus ILP with melphalan and mild hyperthermia. Median age was 50 years, 68% of patients were female, 79% of melanomas were located on a lower limb, and 47% had a thickness > or = 3 mm. RESULTS: Median follow-up duration is 6.4 years. There was a trend for a longer disease-free interval (DFI) after ILP. The difference was significant for patients who did not undergo elective lymph node dissection (ELND). The impact of ILP was clearly on the occurrence-as first site of progression - of in-transit metastases (ITM), which were reduced from 6.6% to 3.3%, and of regional lymph node (RLN) metastases, with a reduction from 16.7% to 12.6%. There was no benefit from ILP in terms of time to distant metastasis or survival. Side effects were higher after ILP, but transient in most patients. There were two amputations for limb toxicity after ILP. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic ILP with melphalan cannot be recommended as an adjunct to standard surgery in high-risk primary limb melanoma.

Clustering of risk behaviors with cigarette consumption: a population-based survey.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed clustering of multiple risk behaviors (i.e., low leisure-time physical activity, low fruits/vegetables intake, and high alcohol consumption) with level of cigarette consumption. METHODS: Data from the 2002 Swiss Health Survey, a population-based cross-sectional telephone survey assessing health and self-reported risk behaviors, were used. 18,005 subjects (8052 men and 9953 women) aged 25 years old or more participated. RESULTS: Smokers more frequently had low leisure time physical activity, low fruits/vegetables intake, and high alcohol consumption than non- and ex-smokers. Frequency of each risk behavior increased steadily with cigarette consumption. Clustering of risk behaviors increased with cigarette consumption in both men and women. For men, the odds ratios of multiple (> or =2) risk behaviors other than smoking, adjusted for age, nationality, and educational level, were 1.14 (95% confidence interval: 0.97, 1.33) for ex-smokers, 1.24 (0.93, 1.64) for light smokers (1-9 cigarettes/day), 1.72 (1.36, 2.17) for moderate smokers (10-19 cigarettes/day), and 3.07 (2.59, 3.64) for heavy smokers (> or =20 cigarettes/day) versus non-smokers. Similar odds ratios were found for women for corresponding groups, i.e., 1.01 (0.86, 1.19), 1.26 (1.00, 1.58), 1.62 (1.33, 1.98), and 2.75 (2.30, 3.29). CONCLUSIONS: Counseling and intervention with smokers should take into account the strong clustering of risk behaviors with level of cigarette consumption.

Assessment of myocardial edema and area-at-risk in acute myocardial infarction by CMR: Evaluation of a novel T2-mapping method

Objectives. The goal of this study is to evaluate a T2-mapping sequence by: (i) measuring the reproducibility intra- and inter-observer variability in healthy volunteers in two separate scanning session with a T2 reference phantom; (2) measuring the mean T2 relaxation times by T2-mapping in infarcted myocardium in patients with subacute MI and compare it with patient's the gold standard X-ray coronary angiography and healthy volunteers results. Background. Myocardial edema is a consequence of an inflammation of the tissue, as seen in myocardial infarct (MI). It can be visualized by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging using the T2 relaxation time. T2-mapping is a quantitative methodology that has the potential to address the limitation of the conventional T2-weighted (T2W) imaging. Methods. The T2-mapping protocol used for all MRI scans consisted in a radial gradient echo acquisition with a lung-liver navigator for free-breathing acquisition and affine image registration. Mid-basal short axis slices were acquired.T2-maps analyses: 2 observers semi- automatically segmented the left ventricle in 6 segments accordingly to the AHA standards. 8 healthy volunteers (age: 27 ± 4 years; 62.5% male) were scanned in 2 separate sessions. 17 patients (age : 61.9 ± 13.9 years; 82.4% male) with subacute STEMI (70.6%) and NSTEMI underwent a T2-mapping scanning session. Results. In healthy volunteers, the mean inter- and intra-observer variability over the entire short axis slice (segment 1 to 6) was 0.1 ms (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.4 to 0.5, p = 0.62) and 0.2 ms (95% CI: -2.8 to 3.2, p = 0.94, respectively. T2 relaxation time measurements with and without the correction of the phantom yielded an average difference of 3.0 ± 1.1 % and 3.1 ± 2.1 % (p = 0.828), respectively. In patients, the inter-observer variability in the entire short axis slice (S1-S6), was 0.3 ms (95% CI: -1.8 to 2.4, p = 0.85). Edema location as determined through the T2-mapping and the coronary artery occlusion as determined on X-ray coronary angiography correlated in 78.6%, but only in 60% in apical infarcts. All except one of the maximal T2 values in infarct patients were greater than the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for normal myocardium. Conclusions. The T2-mapping methodology is accurate in detecting infarcted, i.e. edematous tissue in patients with subacute infarcts. This study further demonstrated that this T2-mapping technique is reproducible and robust enough to be used on a segmental basis for edema detection without the need of a phantom to yield a T2 correction factor. This new quantitative T2-mapping technique is promising and is likely to allow for serial follow-up studies in patients to improve our knowledge on infarct pathophysiology, on infarct healing, and for the assessment of novel treatment strategies for acute infarctions.

Occurrence, risk factors, diagnosis and treatment of syphilis in the prospective observational Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Annual syphilis testing was reintroduced in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) in 2004. We prospectively studied occurrence, risk factors, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches and treatment of syphilis. METHODS: Over a period of 33 months, participants with positive test results for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay were studied using the SHCS database and an additional structured case report form. RESULTS: Of 7244 cohort participants, 909 (12.5%) had positive syphilis serology. Among these, 633 had previously been treated and had no current signs or symptoms of syphilis at time of testing. Of 218 patients with newly detected untreated syphilis, 20% reported genitooral contacts as only risk behavior and 60% were asymptomatic. Newly detected syphilis was more frequent among men who have sex with men (MSM) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.8, P < 0.001], in persons reporting casual sexual partners (adjusted OR 2.8, P < 0.001) and in MSM of younger age (P = 0.05). Only 35% of recommended cerebrospinal fluid (CFS) examinations were performed. Neurosyphilis was diagnosed in four neurologically asymptomatic patients; all of them had a Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) titer of 1:>or=32. Ninety-one percent of the patients responded to treatment with at least a four-fold decline in VDRL titer. CONCLUSION: Syphilis remains an important coinfection in the SHCS justifying reintroduction of routine screening. Genitooral contact is a significant way of transmission and young MSM are at high risk for syphilis. Current guidelines to rule out neurosyphilis by CSF analysis are inconsistently followed in clinical practice. Serologic treatment response is above 90% in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

The Swiss Willensnation at Risk: Teachers in the Cultural Gap during the First World War

As a neutral and multilingual country, Switzerland struggled with major domestic political conflicts during the First World War due to the two cultures of the French-speaking and German-speaking parts of the country. The divided cultural loyalties ('fossé moral', 'Röstigraben'), consisting of Swiss-Germans supporting Germany and Swiss-French supporting France, were discussed intensively in both of the main teachers' journals in Switzerland. Teachers felt the need to react and to promote unity from the beginning of the war. Despite the fact that the cantons are responsible for public education and, therefore, for the education of their students, teachers considered themselves called to educate their students to be national citizens rather than to be members of a language group. This threefold citizenship - communal, cantonal and national - was not scrutinised, but national unity became crucial due to the critical political circumstances. How did teachers promote and constitute citizenship for themselves and for their students in a nation united by free will during the First World War, a time of severe internal political conflicts?

Circulating insulin-like growth factor-I in pregnancy and maternal risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Elevated serum concentrations of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1 have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Previously, we reported a similar association in samples obtained during pregnancy. The current study was conducted to further characterize the association of IGF-1 during pregnancy with maternal breast cancer risk. METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. The study was limited to primiparous women less than 40 years of age, who donated blood samples during early (median, 12 weeks) pregnancy and delivered a single child at term. Seven hundred and nineteen women with invasive breast cancer were eligible. Two controls (n = 1,434) were matched to each case on age and date at blood donation. Serum IGF-1 concentration was measured using an Immulite 2000 analyzer. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).RESULTS: No significant associations were observed between serum IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer risk in both the overall analysis (OR 1.08 (95% CI 0.80-1.47) and in analyses stratified by histological subtype, lag-time to cancer diagnosis, age at pregnancy or age at diagnosis.CONCLUSIONS: There was no association between IGF-1 and maternal breast cancer risk during early pregnancy in this large nested case-control study.Impact:Serum IGF-1 concentrations during early pregnancy may not be related to maternal risk of breast cancer.