Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Topographic ERP analyses: a step-by-step tutorial review.

In this tutorial review, we detail both the rationale for as well as the implementation of a set of analyses of surface-recorded event-related potentials (ERPs) that uses the reference-free spatial (i.e. topographic) information available from high-density electrode montages to render statistical information concerning modulations in response strength, latency, and topography both between and within experimental conditions. In these and other ways these topographic analysis methods allow the experimenter to glean additional information and neurophysiologic interpretability beyond what is available from canonical waveform analyses. In this tutorial we present the example of somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) in response to stimulation of each hand to illustrate these points. For each step of these analyses, we provide the reader with both a conceptual and mathematical description of how the analysis is carried out, what it yields, and how to interpret its statistical outcome. We show that these topographic analysis methods are intuitive and easy-to-use approaches that can remove much of the guesswork often confronting ERP researchers and also assist in identifying the information contained within high-density ERP datasets.

Dynamics of IS Adaptation in Multinational Corporations: A New Theoretical Lens

The specificities of multinational corporations (MNCs) have to date not been a focus area of IS research. Extant literature mostly proposes IS configurations for specific types of MNCs, following a static and prescriptive approach. Our research seeks to explain the dynamics of global IS design. It suggests a new theoretical lens for studying global IS design by applying the structural adjustment paradigm from organizational change theories. Relying on archetype theory, we conduct a longitudinal case study to theorize the dynamics of IS adaptation. We find that global IS design emerges as an organizational adaptation process to balance interpretative schemes (i.e. the organization's values and beliefs) and structural arrangements (i.e. strategic, organizational, and IS configurations). The resulting insights can be used as a basis to further explore alternative global IS designs and movements between them.

Combined simulation and mutagenesis analyses reveal the involvement of key residues for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha helix 12 dynamic behavior.

The dynamic properties of helix 12 in the ligand binding domain of nuclear receptors are a major determinant of AF-2 domain activity. We investigated the molecular and structural basis of helix 12 mobility, as well as the involvement of individual residues with regard to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (PPARalpha) constitutive and ligand-dependent transcriptional activity. Functional assays of the activity of PPARalpha helix 12 mutants were combined with free energy molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement between the results from these approaches allows us to make robust claims concerning the mechanisms that govern helix 12 functions. Our data support a model in which PPARalpha helix 12 transiently adopts a relatively stable active conformation even in the absence of a ligand. This conformation provides the interface for the recruitment of a coactivator and results in constitutive activity. The receptor agonists stabilize this conformation and increase PPARalpha transcription activation potential. Finally, we disclose important functions of residues in PPARalpha AF-2, which determine the positioning of helix 12 in the active conformation in the absence of a ligand. Substitution of these residues suppresses PPARalpha constitutive activity, without changing PPARalpha ligand-dependent activation potential.

Efficiency of Gumbel analyses for determining extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland

Gumbel analyses were carried out on rainfall time-series at 151 locations in Switzerland for 4 different periods of 30 years in order to estimate daily extreme precipitation for a return period of 100 years. Those estimations were compared with maximal daily values measured during the last 100 years (1911-2010) to test the efficiency of these analyses. This comparison shows that these analyses provide good results for 50 to 60% locations in this country from rainfall time-series 1961-1990 and 1980-2010. On the other hand, daily precipitation with a return period of 100 years is underestimated at most locations from time-series 1931-1960 and especially 1911-1940. Such underestimation results from the increase of maximal daily precipitation recorded from 1911 to 2010 at 90% locations in Switzerland.

The Impact of the Electoral System on Political Campaigning : Are Candidates for the Council of States More Moderate than their Fellow Candidates for the National Council ?

It is commonly believed that majority voting enhances parties to cluster around the centre of the political space, whereas proportional systems (PR) foster great ideological divergence. The theoretical arguments for these expectations go back to the work of Downs (1957) and Duverger (1954). More recent studies, however, produced quite contradictory empirical findings. In this paper I will test whether similar arguments hold true for the positioning of candidates campaigning in different electoral systems. The elections for the two chambers of the Swiss Parliament and the data from the Swiss Electoral Studies (SELECTS) and the Swiss Voting Advice Application (VAA) smartvote offer an excellent - almost laboratory like - opportunity to do so empirically. The analyses show clearly, the theoretical claims that majority voting necessarily fosters more moderate positions find no support. The candidates for the Council of States, elected in a majority system, are not more moderate than their fellow party candidates for the National Council which are elected in a PR system.

Chemical analyses of organic residues in archaeological pottery from Arbon Bleiche 3, Switzerland - evidence for dairying in the late Neolithic

Fatty acids distribution and stable isotope ratios (bulk delta(13)C. delta(15)N and delta(13)C of individual fatty acids) of organic residues from 30 potsherds have been used to get further insights into the diet at the Late Neolithic (3384-3370 BC) site of Arbon Bleiche 3. Switzerland. The results are compared with modern equivalents of animal and vegetable fats, which may have been consumed ill a mixed ecology community having agrarian, breeding, shepherd, gathering, hunting, and fishing activities. The used combined chemical and isotopic approach provides valuable information to complement archaeological indirect evidence about the dietary trends obtained from the analysis of faunal and plant remains. The small variations of the delta(13)C and delta(15)N values within the range expected for degraded animal and plant tissues, is consistent with the archaeological evidence of animals, whose subsistence was mainly based on C(3) plants. The overall fatty acid composition and the stable carbon isotopic compositions of palmitic, stearic and oleic acids of the organic residues indicate that the studied Arbon Bleiche 3 sherds contain fat residues of plant and animal origin, most likely ruminant (bovine and ovine). In several vessels the presence of milk residues provides direct evidence for dairying during the late Neolithic in central Europe. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

X-chromosome SNP analyses in 11 human Mediterranean populations show a high overall genetic homogeneity except in North-west Africans (Moroccans).

BACKGROUND: Due to its history, with a high number of migration events, the Mediterranean basin represents a challenging area for population genetic studies. A large number of genetic studies have been carried out in the Mediterranean area using different markers but no consensus has been reached on the genetic landscape of the Mediterranean populations. In order to further investigate the genetics of the human Mediterranean populations, we typed 894 individuals from 11 Mediterranean populations with 25 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located on the X-chromosome. RESULTS: A high overall homogeneity was found among the Mediterranean populations except for the population from Morocco, which seemed to differ genetically from the rest of the populations in the Mediterranean area. A very low genetic distance was found between populations in the Middle East and most of the western part of the Mediterranean Sea.A higher migration rate in females versus males was observed by comparing data from X-chromosome, mt-DNA and Y-chromosome SNPs both in the Mediterranean and a wider geographic area.Multilocus association was observed among the 25 SNPs on the X-chromosome in the populations from Ibiza and Cosenza. CONCLUSION: Our results support both the hypothesis of (1) a reduced impact of the Neolithic Wave and more recent migration movements in NW-Africa, and (2) the importance of the Strait of Gibraltar as a geographic barrier. In contrast, the high genetic homogeneity observed in the Mediterranean area could be interpreted as the result of the Neolithic wave caused by a large demic diffusion and/or more recent migration events. A differentiated contribution of males and females to the genetic landscape of the Mediterranean area was observed with a higher migration rate in females than in males. A certain level of background linkage disequilibrium in populations in Ibiza and Cosenza could be attributed to their demographic background.

On Strong Citizens: A Sociological View on Cognitions and Contentious Participation

The present thesis is about cognitions of left-wing activists and the role they play to better understand contentious participation. It compares activists of three post-industrial social movement organizations in Switzerland, i.e. Solidarity across Borders defending migrant's rights, the Society of Threatened People promoting collective human rights and Greenpeace protecting the environment. It makes use of an innovative mixed methods design combining survey and interview data. The main theoretical contribution is to conceptualize an analytical tool enabling to grasp the cognitive map of these activists by putting forward the concept of strong citizen, summing up their relation to society and politics. The relation to society consists of an extensive relation to others and an interconnected vision of society. Consequently, their primary concerns include the handing of common goods and the equal treatment of individuals with regard to common goods. The relation to politics incorporates a critical and vigilant citizen. They are critical towards political authorities and they appreciate political action by organized groups of the civil society. The thesis states that only by having such worldviews activists are able to construct an injustice, agency and identity frame for the claims of their organizations. Thus, the present work delivers a parsimonious answer to the question of where an injustice, agency and identity frame comes from. It does so by a systematic analysis of four specific arguments. First, it empirically demonstrates that these activists have - at the aggregate level - specific cognitive resources compared to the general population. Second, it describes the content of this specific cognitive outlook by evaluating the appropriateness of the strong citizen concept. Third, it looks at variations between activist's communities and shows that activists of more challenging protest issues are stronger citizens than activists of more mainstream protests. Finally, cognitions are not the only part of the story if one looks at contentious participation. Other factors, i.e. social networks and biographical availability, matter too. Therefore, I test if cognitions are able to contribute in explaining differences between activists' communities if one controls for other factors. In sum, this thesis is thus a first step to demonstrate why one should be concerned about activists' cognitions. - Cette thèse s'intéresse aux cognitions des activistes de gauche et à leur rôle dans le phénomène de la participation contestataire. Des activistes de trois organisations post- industrielles en Suisse sont comparé, à savoir Solidarité sans Frontières qui défend les droits des migrants, la Société des Peuples menacés qui promeut les droits des collectivités minoritaires et Greenpeace qui oeuvre pour la protection de l'environnement. Cette recherche utilise un « mixed methods design » en combinant de manière innovant des données de sondage et d'entretiens. Ma principale contribution théorique réside dans la conceptualisation d'un outil analytique qui permet de saisir la « carte cognitive » des activistes, à travers le concept de « strong citizen » qui se réfère à la relation spécifique qu'entretiennent certains individus avec la société et la politique. Ces individus sont caractérisés par une vision inclusive et interconnectée de la société, ainsi que par une conception politique du citoyen comme critique et vigilant. Mon argument principal est celui selon lequel seuls les individus possédant ce type particulier de cognitions sont capable de construire un cadre d'injustice, d'« agency » et d'identité. Cette thèse apporte donc quelques éléments de réponse à la question de l'origine de ces cadres cognitifs qui sont cruciales pour la participation. Pour ce faire, quatre aspects spécifiques sont analysés de manière systématique. Premièrement, je démontre empiriquement, au niveau agrégé, que ces activistes possèdent effectivement des ressources cognitives spécifiques - en comparaison avec la population générale. Deuxièmement, j'analyse le contenu de ces cognitions, ce qui me permet notamment d'évaluer la pertinence et l'adéquation du concept de « strong citizen ». Troisièmement, en m'intéressant cette fois aux variations entre communautés d'activistes, je démontre que ceux réunis autour d'enjeux protestataires très revendicatifs sont, d'un point de vue cognitif, plus proches de la figure du « strong citizen » que ceux mobilisés sur des enjeux plus consensuels. Finalement, d'autres facteurs, à savoir les réseaux sociaux et la disponibilité biographique, sont intégrés à l'analyse afin de mesurer le réel pouvoir explicatif des cognitions dans l'explication des différences observées entre communautés d'activistes. A travers ces analyses, cette thèse met en avant l'importance du rôle des cognitions dans l'étude de la participation contestataire.

Regional abundance of on-premise outlets and drinking patterns among Swiss young men: District level analyses and geographic adjustments.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: This study investigated the associations of alcohol outlet density with specific alcohol outcomes (consumption and consequences) among young men in Switzerland and assessed the possible geographically related variations. DESIGN AND METHODS: Alcohol consumption and drinking consequences were measured in a 2010-2011 study assessing substance use risk factors (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors) among 5519 young Swiss men. Outlet density was based on the number of on- and off-premise outlets in the district of residence. Linear regression models were run separately for drinking level, heavy episodic drinking (HED) and drinking consequences. Geographically weighted regression models were estimated when variations were recorded at the district level. RESULTS: No consistent association was found between outlet density and drinking consequences. A positive association between drinking level and HED with on-premise outlet density was found. Geographically weighted regressions were run for drinking level and HED. The predicted values for HED were higher in the southwest part of Switzerland (French-speaking part). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Among Swiss young men, the density of outlets and, in particular, the abundance of bars, clubs and other on-premise outlets was associated with drinking level and HED, even when drinking consequences were not significantly affected. These findings support the idea that outlet density needs to be considered when developing and implementing regional-based prevention initiatives. [Astudillo M, Kuendig H, Centeno-Gil A, Wicki M, Gmel G. Regional abundance of on-premise outlets and drinking patterns among Swiss young men: District level analyses and geographic adjustments. Drug Alcohol Rev 2014;33:526-33].

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

Stranger than Fiction: Métalepse de Genette et quelques univers filmiques contemporains

Dans le présent article, l'auteur examine certains commentaires développés par Gérard Genette à propos d'exemples filmiques dans l'ouvrage Métalepse, et tente de prolonger l'étude de cette « figure » dans le cadre des théories de la fiction en se penchant sur des films réalisés dans la dernière décennie. Il montre ainsi la pertinence de l'étude des phénomènes relevant de la métalepse pour aborder certaines productions cinématographiques contemporaines qui engagent des pratiques réflexives complexes. Par ailleurs, il aborde la façon dont Genette se positionne par rapport à l'objet cinéma - qu'il tient distance -, et propose d'autres ouvertures théoriques, notamment en tenant plus spécifiquement compte des théories de l'énonciation filmique. Enfin, il discute certains problèmes soulevés par la conception genettienne de la « diégèse » appliquée au cinéma, notamment dans le cas de l'analyse des implications du procédé du pont sonore et des sons dits « extradiégétiques ». L'étude s'achève par l'analyse de la transgression des niveaux narratifs dans un film à voix-over, Stranger than fiction (Marc Forster, 2006), qui constitue un lieu privilégié pour éprouver certaines remarques de Genette. This article discusses some reflections developed by Gérard Genette with respect to the filmic examples in Métalepse and tries to pursue the study of this figure within the framework of fiction theories, by focusing on certain films released in the last decade. The article also shows how the study of metalepsis can be important in order to address contemporary movies presenting complex self-reflexive strategies. Furthermore, it gives account of the particular way in which Genette deals with cinema and suggests some other possible theoretical developments, considering in particular the theories about filmic enunciation. Finally, the paper discusses some problems concerning Genette's idea of "diegesis" when it is applied to cinema and analyses the transgression of narrative levels in a voice-over film - in this case Stranger than Fiction (Marc Forster, 2006), which provides a particularly interesting example in order to test some of Genette's remarks.

Structure-function analyses point to a polynucleotide-accommodating groove essential for APOBEC3A restriction activities.

Members of the human APOBEC3 family of editing enzymes can inhibit various mobile genetic elements. APOBEC3A (A3A) can block the retrotransposon LINE-1 and the parvovirus adeno-associated virus type 2 (AAV-2) but does not inhibit retroviruses. In contrast, APOBEC3G (A3G) can block retroviruses but has only limited effects on AAV-2 or LINE-1. What dictates this differential target specificity remains largely undefined. Here, we modeled the structure of A3A based on its homology with the C-terminal domain of A3G and further compared the sequence of human A3A to those of 11 nonhuman primate orthologues. We then used these data to perform a mutational analysis of A3A, examining its ability to restrict LINE-1, AAV-2, and foreign plasmid DNA and to edit a single-stranded DNA substrate. The results revealed an essential functional role for the predicted single-stranded DNA-docking groove located around the A3A catalytic site. Within this region, amino acid differences between A3A and A3G are predicted to affect the shape of the polynucleotide-binding groove. Correspondingly, transferring some of these A3A residues to A3G endows the latter protein with the ability to block LINE-1 and AAV-2. These results suggest that the target specificity of APOBEC3 family members is partly defined by structural features influencing their interaction with polynucleotide substrates.