Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: study of the main generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

The development of forensic intelligence relies on the expression of suitable models that better represent the contribution of forensic intelligence in relation to the criminal justice system, policing and security. Such models assist in comparing and evaluating methods and new technologies, provide transparency and foster the development of new applications. Interestingly, strong similarities between two separate projects focusing on specific forensic science areas were recently observed. These observations have led to the induction of a general model (Part I) that could guide the use of any forensic science case data in an intelligence perspective. The present article builds upon this general approach by focusing on decisional and organisational issues. The article investigates the comparison process and evaluation system that lay at the heart of the forensic intelligence framework, advocating scientific decision criteria and a structured but flexible and dynamic architecture. These building blocks are crucial and clearly lay within the expertise of forensic scientists. However, it is only part of the problem. Forensic intelligence includes other blocks with their respective interactions, decision points and tensions (e.g. regarding how to guide detection and how to integrate forensic information with other information). Formalising these blocks identifies many questions and potential answers. Addressing these questions is essential for the progress of the discipline. Such a process requires clarifying the role and place of the forensic scientist within the whole process and their relationship to other stakeholders.

Folate intake and the risk of oral cavity and pharyngeal cancer: A pooled analysis within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

There are suggestions of an inverse association between folate intake and serum folate levels and the risk of oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers (OPCs), but most studies are limited in sample size, with only few reporting information on the source of dietary folate. Our study aims to investigate the association between folate intake and the risk of OPC within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium. We analyzed pooled individual-level data from ten case-control studies participating in the INHANCE consortium, including 5,127 cases and 13,249 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for the associations between total folate intake (natural, fortification and supplementation) and natural folate only, and OPC risk. We found an inverse association between total folate intake and overall OPC risk (the adjusted OR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile was 0.65, 95% CI: 0.43-0.99), with a stronger association for oral cavity (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.43-0.75). A similar inverse association, though somewhat weaker, was observed for folate intake from natural sources only in oral cavity cancer (OR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45-0.91). The highest OPC risk was observed in heavy alcohol drinkers with low folate intake as compared to never/light drinkers with high folate (OR = 4.05, 95% CI: 3.43-4.79); the attributable proportion (AP) owing to interaction was 11.1% (95% CI: 1.4-20.8%). Lastly, we reported an OR of 2.73 (95% CI:2.34-3.19) for those ever tobacco users with low folate intake, compared with nevere tobacco users and high folate intake (AP of interaction =10.6%, 95% CI: 0.41-20.8%). Our project of a large pool of case-control studies supports a protective effect of total folate intake on OPC risk.

Medical futility at the end of life: the perspectives of intensive care and palliative care clinicians.

Objectives Medical futility at the end of life is a growing challenge to medicine. The goals of the authors were to elucidate how clinicians define futility, when they perceive life-sustaining treatment (LST) to be futile, how they communicate this situation and why LST is sometimes continued despite being recognised as futile. Methods The authors reviewed ethics case consultation protocols and conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 physicians and 11 nurses from adult intensive and palliative care units at a tertiary hospital in Germany. The transcripts were subjected to qualitative content analysis. Results Futility was identified in the majority of case consultations. Interviewees associated futility with the failure to achieve goals of care that offer a benefit to the patient's quality of life and are proportionate to the risks, harms and costs. Prototypic examples mentioned are situations of irreversible dependence on LST, advanced metastatic malignancies and extensive brain injury. Participants agreed that futility should be assessed by physicians after consultation with the care team. Intensivists favoured an indirect and stepwise disclosure of the prognosis. Palliative care clinicians focused on a candid and empathetic information strategy. The reasons for continuing futile LST are primarily emotional, such as guilt, grief, fear of legal consequences and concerns about the family's reaction. Other obstacles are organisational routines, insufficient legal and palliative knowledge and treatment requests by patients or families. Conclusion Managing futility could be improved by communication training, knowledge transfer, organisational improvements and emotional and ethical support systems. The authors propose an algorithm for end-of-life decision making focusing on goals of treatment.

Bodily perspective taking goes social: the role of personal, interpersonal, and intercultural factors

Mentally placing the self in the physical position of another person might engage social perspective taking because participants have to match their own position with that of another. We investigated the influence of personal (sex), interpersonal (siblings, parental marital status), and cultural (individualistic, collectivistic) factors on individuals' abilities to mentally take the position of front-facing and back-facing figures in an online study (369 participants). Replicating findings from laboratory studies responses were slower for front-facing than back-facing figures. Having siblings, parents' marital status, and cultural background influenced task performance in theoretically predictable ways. The present perspective-taking task is a promising experimental paradigm to assess social perspective taking and one that is free from the response biases inherent in self-report.

The role of antibody concentration and avidity in antiviral protection.

Neutralizing antibodies are necessary and sufficient for protection against infection with vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). The in vitro neutralization capacities and in vivo protective capacities of a panel of immunoglobulin G monoclonal antibodies to the glycoprotein of VSV were evaluated. In vitro, neutralizing activity correlated with avidity and with neutralization rate constant, a measure of on-rate. However, in vivo, protection was independent of immunoglobulin subclass, avidity, neutralization rate constant, and in vitro neutralizing activity; above a minimal avidity threshold, protection depended simply on a minimum serum concentration. These two biologically defined thresholds of antibody specificity offer hope for the development of adoptive therapy with neutralizing antibodies.

The risk of subsequent cancer and arterial cardiovascular events in patients with superficial vein thrombosis in the legs.

Although it has been clearly demonstrated that venous thromboembolism is associated with an increased risk of subsequent overt cancer and arterial cardiovascular events in comparison with control populations, whether this association also applies to patients with isolated (ie, without concomitant involvement of the deep vein system) superficial vein thrombosis (SVT) in the legs is unknown. In 737 consecutive patients with isolated SVT not involving the sapheno-femoral junction, we conducted a retrospective investigation to assess the rate of cancer and that of arterial cardiovascular events occurring during follow-up. The event rates were compared with those occurring in 1438 controls having comparable characteristics. Both cases and controls were followed-up for an average period of 26 ± 8 months (range, 3-45). Malignancy was diagnosed in 26 cases (3.5%) and 56 controls (3.9%), leading to a hazard ratio of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.55%-1.35%). Arterial cardiovascular events occurred in 32 cases (4.3%) and 63 controls (4.4%), leading to a hazard ratio of 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.63%-1.50%). We conclude that the occurrence of isolated SVT in the legs does not place patients at an increased risk of malignancies or arterial cardiovascular events. Whether this conclusion also applies to patients whose thrombosis involves the sapheno-femoral junction remains to be demonstrated.

The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

Cumulative cultural dynamics and the coevolution of cultural innovation and transmission: an ESS model for panmictic and structured populations.

When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady-state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.

Setting up a Common European Asylum System : Report on the application of existing instruments and proposals for the new system

The study assesses firstly the evaluation process of the first generation of asylum instruments while underlining the possibilities to improve it. It analyses secondly the asylum "acquis" regarding distribution of refugees between Member States, the eligibility for protection, the status of protected persons regarding detention and vulnerability, asylum procedures and the external dimension by formulating short-term recommendations of each area. Its last part is devoted to the long term evolution of the Common European Asylum System regarding the legal context including the accession of the EU to the Geneva Convention, the institutional perspectives including the new European Support Office, the jurisdictional perspective, the substantive perspective, the distributive perspective and the external perspective.

What kind of relationships between the evolution of pain, beliefs and bio-psycho-social complexity after a locomotor traumatism?

Introduction: Pain and beliefs have an influence on the patient's course in rehabilitation, pain causes fears and fears influence pain perception. The aim of this study is to understand pain and beliefs evolutions during rehabilitation taking into account of bio-psycho-social complexity.Patients and methods: 631 consecutive patients admitted in rehabilitation after a musculoskeletal traumatism were included and assessed at admission and at discharge. Pain was measured by VAS (Visual Analogical Scale), bio-psycho-social complexity by Intermed scale, and beliefs by judgement on Lickert scales. Four kinds of beliefs were evaluated: fear of a severe origin of pain, fear of movement, fear of pain and feeling of distress (loss of control). The association between the changes in pain and beliefs during the hospitalization was assessed by linear regressions.Results: After adjustment for gender, age, education and native language, patients with a decrease in pain during rehabilitation have higher probability of decreasing their fears. For the distress feeling, this relationship is weaker among bio-psycho-socially complex patients (odds-ratio 1.22 for each decreasing of 10mm/100 VAS) than among non-complex patients (OR 1.47). Patients with a pain decrease of 30% or more during hospitalization have higher probability of seeing their fears decrease, this relationship being stronger in complex patient for fear of a severe origin of pain.Discussion: The relationships between evolution of pain and beliefs move in the same direction. The higher a patient feels pain, the less they could be able to modify their dysfunctional beliefs. When the pain diminishes of 30% or more, the probability to challenge the beliefs is increased. The prognostic with regard to feeling of distress and fear of a severe origin of pain, is worse among bio-psycho-socially complex patients.

Gene expression profiling of human glioblastomas for the identification of predictive factors and characterisation of molecular mechanism implicated in response to therapy and outcome

ABSTRACT Poor outcome for glioblastoma patients is largely due to resistance to chemoradiation therapy. While epigenetic inactivation of MGMT mediated DNA repair is highly predictive for benefit from the alkylating agent therapy Temozolomide, additional mechanisms for resistance associated with molecular alterations exist. Furthermore, new concepts in cancer suggest that resistance to treatment may be linked to cancer stem cells that escape therapy and act as source for tumour recurrence. We determined gene expression signatures associated with outcome in glioblastoma patients enrolled in a phase II and phase III clinical trial establishing the new combination therapy of radiation plus concomitant and adjuvant Temozolomide. Correlating stable gene clusters emerging from unsupervised analysis with survival of 42 treated patients identified a number of biological processes associated with outcome. Most prominent, a gene cluster dominated by HOX genes and comprising PROM1, was associated with resistance. PROM1 encodes CD133, a marker for a subpopulation of tumour cells enriched for glioblastoma stem- like cells. The core of this correlated HOX cluster was comprised in the top genes of a "self-renewal signature" defined in a mouse model for MLL-AF9 initiated leukaemia. The association of the HOX gene cluster with tumour resistance was confirmed in two external data sets of 146 malignant glioma As additional resistance factors we identified over-expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor gene, EGFR, while increased gene expression related to biological features of tumour host interaction, including markers for tumour vascular and cell adhesion, and innate immune response, were associated with better outcome. The "self-renewal" signature associated with resistance to the new combination chemoradiation therapy provides first clinical evidence that glioma stem like cells may implicated in resistance in a uniformly treated cohort of glioblastoma patients. This study underlines the need to target the tumour stem cell compartment, and provides some testable hypothesis for biological mechanisms relevant for malignant behaviour of glioblastoma that may be targeted in new treatment approaches. Résumé Le glioblastome, tumeur cérébrale primaire maligne la plus fréquente, est connue pour son mauvais pronostique. Des avancées chimiothérapeutiques récentes avec des agents alkylants comme le témozolomide (TMZ), ont permis une amélioration notable dans la survie de certains patients. Les bénéficiaires ont la caractéristique commune de présenter une particularité génétique, la methylation du MGMT (methylguanine methyltransferase). Néanmoins, d'autres mécanismes de résistance en fonction des aberrations moléculaires existent. Nous avons établi les profils d'expressions génétiques des patients traités par irradiation et TMZ dans des études cliniques de phase II et III. En combinant des méthodes non-supervisées et supervisées, de l'étude de la cohorte des patients traités nous avons découvert des groupes de gènes associés à la survie. Un ensemble de gènes contenant les gènes Hox semble lié au mécanisme de résistance au traitement. Récemment, les gènes Hox ont été décrits comme faisant partie d"une signature d'autorenouvellement (self-renewal) des cellules souches cancéreuses de la leucémie. L'autorenouvellement est un processus grâce auquel les cellules souches se maintiennent tout au long de la vie. Cette association à la résistance est confirmée dans deux autres études indépendantes. Un autre facteur de résistance au traitement est la surexpression du gène EGFR. D'autre part, deux groupes de gènes associés à la relation entre hôte-tumeur tels que les marqueurs des vaisseaux tumoraux et de la réponse immunitaire innée s'avèrent avoir un effet positif sur la survie des patients traités. La découverte de la signature d'autorenouvellement comme facteur de résistance à la nouvelle chimio-radiothérapie offre une preuve clinique que les cellules souches cancéreuses sont impliquées dans la résistance au traitement. If est donc logique de penser que le traitement ciblé contre des cellules souches cancéreuses va dans l'avenir permettre des thérapies anticancéreuses plus performantes.

Sex differences in the neurobiology of fear conditioning and extinction: a preliminary fMRI study of shared sex differences with stress-arousal circuitry.

BACKGROUND: The amygdala, hippocampus, medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and brain-stem subregions are implicated in fear conditioning and extinction, and are brain regions known to be sexually dimorphic. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate sex differences in brain activity in these regions during fear conditioning and extinction. METHODS: Subjects were 12 healthy men comparable to 12 healthy women who underwent a 2-day experiment in a 3 T MR scanner. Fear conditioning and extinction learning occurred on day 1 and extinction recall occurred on day 2. The conditioned stimuli were visual cues and the unconditioned stimulus was a mild electric shock. Skin conductance responses (SCR) were recorded throughout the experiment as an index of the conditioned response. fMRI data (blood-oxygen-level-dependent [BOLD] signal changes) were analyzed using SPM8. RESULTS: Findings showed no significant sex differences in SCR during any experimental phases. However, during fear conditioning, there were significantly greater BOLD-signal changes in the right amygdala, right rostral anterior cingulate (rACC) and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) in women compared with men. In contrast, men showed significantly greater signal changes in bilateral rACC during extinction recall. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate sex differences in brain activation within the fear circuitry of healthy subjects despite similar peripheral autonomic responses. Furthermore, we found that regions where sex differences were previously reported in response to stress, also exhibited sex differences during fear conditioning and extinction.