An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. METHODS: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). RESULTS: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation (p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research.

Gabbro, plagiogranite and associated dykes in the supra-subduction zone Evros Ophiolites, NE Greece

The incomplete Evros ophiolites in NE Greece form a NE-SW-oriented discontinuous belt in the Alpine orogen of the north Aegean. Field data, petrology and geochemistry are presented here for the intrusive section and associated mafic dykes of these ophiolites. Bodies of high-level isotropic gabbro and plagiogranite in the ophiolite suite are cross-cut by NE-SW-trending boninitic and tholeiitic-boninitic affinity dykes, respectively. The dykes fill tensile fractures or faults, which implies dyke emplacement in an extensional tectonic regime. The tholeiitic-transitional boninitic gabbro is REE- and HFS-depleted relative to N-MORB, indicating derivation from melting of a refractory mantle peridotite source. Associated boninitic dykes are slightly LREE-enriched, showing mineral and whole-rock geochemistry similar to the gabbro. The plagiogranite is a strongly REE-enriched high-silica trondhjemite, with textures and composition typical for an oceanic crust differentiate. Plagiogranite-hosted tholeiitic and transitional boninitic dykes are variably REE-enriched. Geochemical modelling indicates origin of the plagiogranite by up to 75% fractional crystallization of basaltic magma similar to that producing the associated tholeiitic dykes. All mafic rocks have high LILE/HFSE ratios and negative Ta-Nb-Ti and Ce anomalies, typical for subduction zone-related settings. The mafic rocks show a similar trace-element character to the mafic lavas of an extrusive section in Bulgaria, suggesting they both form genetically related intrusive and extrusive suites of the Evros ophiolites. The field occurrence, the structural context, the petrology and geochemical signature of the studied magmatic assemblage provide evidence for its origin in a proto-arc (fore-arc) tectonic setting, thus tracing the early stages of the tectono-magmatic evolution of Jurassic arc-marginal basin system that has generated the supra-subduction type Evros ophiolites.

A simple score for estimating ischemic heart disease in patients with non-traumatic chest pain in primary care

Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

Development and validation of a gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry method for the determination of ethyl glucuronide in hair and its application to forensic toxicology.

Ethyl glucuronide (EtG) is a minor and direct metabolite of ethanol. EtG is incorporated into the growing hair allowing retrospective investigation of chronic alcohol abuse. In this study, we report the development and the validation of a method using gas chromatography-negative chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry (GC-NCI-MS/MS) for the quantification of EtG in hair. EtG was extracted from about 30 mg of hair by aqueous incubation and purified by solid-phase extraction (SPE) using mixed mode extraction cartridges followed by derivation with perfluoropentanoic anhydride (PFPA). The analysis was performed in the selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode using the transitions m/z 347-->163 (for the quantification) and m/z 347-->119 (for the identification) for EtG, and m/z 352-->163 for EtG-d(5) used as internal standard. For validation, we prepared quality controls (QC) using hair samples taken post mortem from 2 subjects with a known history of alcoholism. These samples were confirmed by a proficiency test with 7 participating laboratories. The assay linearity of EtG was confirmed over the range from 8.4 to 259.4 pg/mg hair, with a coefficient of determination (r(2)) above 0.999. The limit of detection (LOD) was estimated with 3.0 pg/mg. The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) of the method was fixed at 8.4 pg/mg. Repeatability and intermediate precision (relative standard deviation, RSD%), tested at 4 QC levels, were less than 13.2%. The analytical method was applied to several hair samples obtained from autopsy cases with a history of alcoholism and/or lesions caused by alcohol. EtG concentrations in hair ranged from 60 to 820 pg/mg hair.

Diagnosis and treatment of malignant oddian tumors.

Between 1959 and 1987 we operated on 18 patients for malignant oddian tumor. Eleven had a Whipple resection, 3 a bilio-enteric anastomosis, 4 a local excision with or without bilio-enteric anastomosis. The overall operative mortality was 11% and the median survival was 13.8 months. Three patients are living and without evidence of disease 12, 29 and 30 months, respectively, after a Whipple resection. Because of their anatomy and favourable behaviour, malignant oddian tumors must be separated from the other periampullary tumors. Echography and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with deep biopsies are the most efficient diagnostic modalities. With the aim of cure, the treatment is always surgical and relies mainly on duodenopancreatectomy. Those patients with unresectable tumors or unfit for a major procedure should benefit from internal or external biliary drainage. By coexisting duodenal obstruction, a surgical double derivation should be done.

Textual autocorrelation : formalism and illustrations

Abstract Textual autocorrelation is a broad and pervasive concept, referring to the similarity between nearby textual units: lexical repetitions along consecutive sentences, semantic association between neighbouring lexemes, persistence of discourse types (narrative, descriptive, dialogal...) and so on. Textual autocorrelation can also be negative, as illustrated by alternating phonological or morpho-syntactic categories, or the succession of word lengths. This contribution proposes a general Markov formalism for textual navigation, and inspired by spatial statistics. The formalism can express well-known constructs in textual data analysis, such as term-document matrices, references and hyperlinks navigation, (web) information retrieval, and in particular textual autocorrelation, as measured by Moran's I relatively to the exchange matrix associated to neighbourhoods of various possible types. Four case studies (word lengths alternation, lexical repulsion, parts of speech autocorrelation, and semantic autocorrelation) illustrate the theory. In particular, one observes a short-range repulsion between nouns together with a short-range attraction between verbs, both at the lexical and semantic levels. Résumé: Le concept d'autocorrélation textuelle, fort vaste, réfère à la similarité entre unités textuelles voisines: répétitions lexicales entre phrases successives, association sémantique entre lexèmes voisins, persistance du type de discours (narratif, descriptif, dialogal...) et ainsi de suite. L'autocorrélation textuelle peut être également négative, comme l'illustrent l'alternance entre les catégories phonologiques ou morpho-syntaxiques, ou la succession des longueurs de mots. Cette contribution propose un formalisme markovien général pour la navigation textuelle, inspiré par la statistique spatiale. Le formalisme est capable d'exprimer des constructions bien connues en analyse des données textuelles, telles que les matrices termes-documents, les références et la navigation par hyperliens, la recherche documentaire sur internet, et, en particulier, l'autocorélation textuelle, telle que mesurée par le I de Moran relatif à une matrice d'échange associée à des voisinages de différents types possibles. Quatre cas d'étude illustrent la théorie: alternance des longueurs de mots, répulsion lexicale, autocorrélation des catégories morpho-syntaxiques et autocorrélation sémantique. On observe en particulier une répulsion à courte portée entre les noms, ainsi qu'une attraction à courte portée entre les verbes, tant au niveau lexical que sémantique.

MRS glucose mapping and PET joining forces: re-evaluation of the lumped constant in the rat brain under isoflurane anaesthesia.

Although numerous positron emission tomography (PET) studies with (18) F-fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG) have reported quantitative results on cerebral glucose kinetics and consumption, there is a large variation between the absolute values found in the literature. One of the underlying causes is the inconsistent use of the lumped constants (LCs), the derivation of which is often based on multiple assumptions that render absolute numbers imprecise and errors hard to quantify. We combined a kinetic FDG-PET study with magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) of glucose dynamics in Sprague-Dawley rats to obtain a more comprehensive view of brain glucose kinetics and determine a reliable value for the LC under isoflurane anaesthesia. Maps of Tmax /CMRglc derived from MRSI data and Tmax determined from PET kinetic modelling allowed to obtain an LC-independent CMRglc . The LC was estimated to range from 0.33 ± 0.07 in retrosplenial cortex to 0.44 ± 0.05 in hippocampus, yielding CMRglc between 62 ± 14 and 54 ± 11 μmol/min/100 g, respectively. These newly determined LCs for four distinct areas in the rat brain under isoflurane anaesthesia provide means of comparing the growing amount of FDG-PET data available from translational studies.

Validation of a model to predict adverse outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism.

AIMS: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V). We compared 90-day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo-embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample (0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo-embolism or major bleeding. CONCLUSION: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Ore genesis of Pb-Zn deposits in the Nappe zone of Northern Tunisia: Constraints from Pb-S-C-O isotopic systems

The Jalta and Jebel Ghozlane ore deposits are located in the extreme North of Tunisia, within the Nappe zone. The mineralization of Jalta, hosted in Triassic dolostones and the overlying Mio-Pliocene conglomerates, consists of abundant galena, barite, and cerussite with accessory sphalerite, pyrite, and jordanite. At Jebel Ghozlane, large Pb-Zn concentrations occur in the Triassic dolostones and Eocene limestones. The mineral association consists of galena, sphalerite, barite, and celestite and their oxidation products (cerussite, smithsonite, and anglesite). Lead isotope ratios in galena from both districts are relatively homogeneous ((206)Pb/(204)Pb = 18.702-18.823, (207)Pb/(204)Pb = 15.665-15.677, (208)Pb/(204)Pb = 38.725-38.875). The delta(34)S values for sulfates from both areas (+12.2 to +16.2 parts per thousand at Jalta and + 14.3 to + 19.4 parts per thousand at Jebel Ghozlane) are compatible with a derivation of sulfur from marine sulfates, possibly sourced from the Triassic evaporites. The delta(34)S values of the sulfides have a range between -10 and +12.5 parts per thousand at Jalta, and between -9.1 and +22.1 parts per thousand at Jebel Ghozlane. The large range of values suggests reduction of the sulfate by bacterial and/or thermochemical reduction of sulfate to sulfur. The high delta(34)S values of sulfides require closed-system reduction processes. The isotopically light carbon in late calcites (-6.3 to -2.5 parts per thousand) and authigenic dolomite (-17.6 parts per thousand) suggests an organic source of at least some of the carbon in these samples, whereas the similarity of the delta(18)O values between calcite (+24.8 parts per thousand) and the authigenic dolomite (+24.7 parts per thousand) of Jalta and their respective host rocks reflects oxygen isotope buffering of the mineralizing fluids by the host rock carbonates. The secondary calcite isotope compositions of Jalta are compatible with a hydrothermal fluid circulation at approximately 100 to 200 degrees C, but temperatures as low as 50 degrees C may be indicated by the late calcite of Jebel Ghozlane (delta(18)O of +35.9 parts per thousand). Given the geological events related to the Alpine orogeny in the Nappe zone (nappe emplacement, bimodal volcanism, and reactivation of major faults, such as Ghardimaou-Cap Serrat) and the Neogene age of the host rocks in several localities, a Late-Miocene age is proposed for the Pb-Zn ore deposits considered in this study. Remobilization of deep-seated primary deposits in the Paleozoic sequence is the most probable source for metals in both localities considered in this study and probably in the Nappe zone as a whole. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A game theoretical approach to the algebraic counterpart of the Wagner hierarchy

La hiérarchie de Wagner constitue à ce jour la plus fine classification des langages ω-réguliers. Par ailleurs, l'approche algébrique de la théorie de langages formels montre que ces ensembles ω-réguliers correspondent précisément aux langages reconnaissables par des ω-semigroupes finis pointés. Ce travail s'inscrit dans ce contexte en fournissant une description complète de la contrepartie algébrique de la hiérarchie de Wagner, et ce par le biais de la théorie descriptive des jeux de Wadge. Plus précisément, nous montrons d'abord que le degré de Wagner d'un langage ω-régulier est effectivement un invariant syntaxique. Nous définissons ensuite une relation de réduction entre ω-semigroupes pointés par le biais d'un jeu infini de type Wadge. La collection de ces structures algébriques ordonnée par cette relation apparaît alors comme étant isomorphe à la hiérarchie de Wagner, soit un quasi bon ordre décidable de largeur 2 et de hauteur ω. Nous exposons par la suite une procédure de décidabilité de cette hiérarchie algébrique : on décrit une représentation graphique des ω-semigroupes finis pointés, puis un algorithme sur ces structures graphiques qui calcule le degré de Wagner de n'importe quel élément. Ainsi le degré de Wagner de tout langage ω-régulier peut être calculé de manière effective directement sur son image syntaxique. Nous montrons ensuite comment construire directement et inductivement une structure de n''importe quel degré. Nous terminons par une description détaillée des invariants algébriques qui caractérisent tous les degrés de cette hiérarchie. Abstract The Wagner hierarchy is known so far to be the most refined topological classification of ω-rational languages. Also, the algebraic study of formal languages shows that these ω-rational sets correspond precisely to the languages recognizable by finite pointed ω-semigroups. Within this framework, we provide a construction of the algebraic counterpart of the Wagner hierarchy. We adopt a hierarchical game approach, by translating the Wadge theory from the ω-rational language to the ω-semigroup context. More precisely, we first show that the Wagner degree is indeed a syntactic invariant. We then define a reduction relation on finite pointed ω-semigroups by means of a Wadge-like infinite two-player game. The collection of these algebraic structures ordered by this reduction is then proven to be isomorphic to the Wagner hierarchy, namely a well-founded and decidable partial ordering of width 2 and height $\omega^\omega$. We also describe a decidability procedure of this hierarchy: we introduce a graph representation of finite pointed ω-semigroups allowing to compute their precise Wagner degrees. The Wagner degree of every ω-rational language can therefore be computed directly on its syntactic image. We then show how to build a finite pointed ω-semigroup of any given Wagner degree. We finally describe the algebraic invariants characterizing every Wagner degree of this hierarchy.

Complex syntax in autism spectrum disorders: a study of relative clauses.

BACKGROUND: The few studies that have evaluated syntax in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have yielded conflicting findings: some suggest that once matched on mental age, ASD and typically developing controls do not differ for grammar, while others report that morphosyntactic deficits are independent of cognitive skills in ASD. There is a need for a better understanding of syntax in ASD and its relation to, or dissociation from, nonverbal abilities. AIMS: Syntax in ASD was assessed by evaluating subject and object relative clause comprehension in adolescents and adults diagnosed with ASD with a performance IQ within the normal range, and with or without a history of language delay. METHODS & PROCEDURES: Twenty-eight participants with ASD (mean age 21.8) and 28 age-matched controls (mean age 22.07) were required to point to a character designated by relative clauses that varied in syntactic complexity. OUTCOMES & RESULTS: Scores indicate that participants with ASD regardless of the language development history perform significantly worse than age-matched controls with object relative clauses. In addition, participants with ASD with a history of language delay (diagnosed with high-functioning autism in the DSM-IV-TR) perform worse on subject relatives than ASD participants without language delay (diagnosed with Asperger syndrome in the DSM-IV-TR), suggesting that these two groups do not have equivalent linguistic abilities. Performance IQ has a positive impact on the success of the task for the population with ASD. CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS: This study reveals subtle grammatical difficulties remaining in adult individuals with ASD within normal IQ range as compared with age-matched peers. Even in the absence of a history of language delay in childhood, the results suggest that a slight deficit may nevertheless be present and go undetected by standardized language assessments. Both groups with and without language delay have a similar global performance on relative clause comprehension; however, the study also indicates that the participants with reported language delay show more difficulty with subject relatives than the participants without language delay, suggesting the presence of differences in linguistic abilities between these subgroups of ASD.

Contrast : a concept in language and its development in Medieval Spanish

The purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate a semantic relation present in the connection of sentences (more specifically: propositional units). This relation, which we refer to as contrast, includes the traditional categories of adversatives - predominantly represented by the connector but in English and pero in Modern Spanish - and concessives, prototypically verbalised through although / aunque. The aim is to describe, analyse and - as far as possible - to explain the emergence and evolution of different syntactic schemes marking contrast during the first three centuries of Spanish (also referred to as Castilian) as a literary language, i.e., from the 13th to the 15th century. The starting point of this question is a commonplace in syntax, whereby the semantic and syntactic complexity of clause linkage correlates with the degree of textual elaboration. In historical linguistics, i.e., applied to the phylogeny of a language, it is commonly referred to as the parataxis hypothesis A crucial part of the thesis is dedicated by the definition of contrast as a semantic relation. Although the label contrast has been used in this sense, mainly in functional grammar and text linguistics, mainstream grammaticography and linguistics remain attached to the traditional categories adversatives and concessives. In opposition to this traditional view, we present our own model of contrast, based on a pragma-semantic description proposed for the analysis of adversatives by Oswald Ducrot and subsequently adopted by Ekkehard König for the analysis of concessives. We refine and further develop this model in order for it to accommodate all, not just the prototypical instances of contrast in Spanish, arguing that the relationship between adversatives and concessives is a marked opposition, i.e., that the higher degree of semantic and syntactic integration of concessives restricts some possible readings that the adversatives may have, but that this difference is almost systematically neutralised by contextual factors, thus justifying the assumption of contrast as a comprehensive onomasiological category. This theoretical focus is completed by a state-of-the-question overview attempting to account for all relevant forms in which contrast is expressed in Medieval Spanish, with the aid of lexicographic and grammaticographical sources, and an empirical study investigating the expression of corpus in a corpus study on the textual functions of contrast in nine Medieval Spanish texts: Cantar de Mio Cid, Libro de Alexandre, Milagros de Nuestra Sehora, Estoria de Espana, Primera Partida, Lapidario, Libro de buen amor, Conde Lucanor, and Corbacho. This corpus is analysed using quantitative and qualitative tools, and the study is accompanied by a series of methodological remarks on how to investigate a pragma-semantic category in historical linguistics. The corpus study shows that the parataxis hypothesis fails to prove from a statistical viewpoint, although a qualitative analysis shows that the use of subordination does increase over time in some particular contexts.

Prevalence and Diagnostic Approach to Sleep Apnea in Hemodialysis Patients: A Population Study.

Background. Previous observations found a high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the hemodialysis population, but the best diagnostic approach remains undefined. We assessed OSA prevalence and performance of available screening tools to propose a specific diagnostic algorithm. Methods. 104 patients from 6 Swiss hemodialysis centers underwent polygraphy and completed 3 OSA screening scores: STOP-BANG, Berlin's Questionnaire, and Adjusted Neck Circumference. The OSA predictors were identified on a derivation population and used to develop the diagnostic algorithm, which was validated on an independent population. Results. We found 56% OSA prevalence (AHI ≥ 15/h), which was largely underdiagnosed. Screening scores showed poor performance for OSA screening (ROC areas 0.538 [SE 0.093] to 0.655 [SE 0.083]). Age, neck circumference, and time on renal replacement therapy were the best predictors of OSA and were used to develop a screening algorithm, with higher discriminatory performance than classical screening tools (ROC area 0.831 [0.066]). Conclusions. Our study confirms the high OSA prevalence and highlights the low diagnosis rate of this treatable cardiovascular risk factor in the hemodialysis population. Considering the poor performance of OSA screening tools, we propose and validate a specific algorithm to identify hemodialysis patients at risk for OSA for whom further sleep investigations should be considered.

Prognostication of Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Severe Infections.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to confirm the prognostic value of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) in patients with severe infections requiring ICU management and to develop and validate a model to enhance mortality prediction by combining severity scores with biomarkers. METHODS: We enrolled prospectively patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in mixed tertiary ICUs in Switzerland (derivation cohort) and Brazil (validation cohort). Severity scores (APACHE [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation] II or Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II) were combined with biomarkers obtained at the time of diagnosis of sepsis, including C-reactive-protein, procalcitonin (PCT), and PSP. Logistic regression models with the lowest prediction errors were selected to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Mortality rates of patients with septic shock enrolled in the derivation cohort (103 out of 158) and the validation cohort (53 out of 91) were 37% and 57%, respectively. APACHE II and PSP were significantly higher in dying patients. In the derivation cohort, the models combining either APACHE II, PCT, and PSP (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.721; 95% CI, 0.632-0.812) or SAPS II, PCT, and PSP (AUC, 0.710; 95% CI, 0.617-0.802) performed better than each individual biomarker (AUC PCT, 0.534; 95% CI, 0.433-0.636; AUC PSP, 0.665; 95% CI, 0.572-0.758) or severity score (AUC APACHE II, 0.638; 95% CI, 0.543-0.733; AUC SAPS II, 0.598; 95% CI, 0.499-0.698). These models were externally confirmed in the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the prognostic value of PSP in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock requiring ICU management. A model combining severity scores with PCT and PSP improves mortality prediction in these patients.