Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

A set of indicators for decomposing the secular increase of life expectancy.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. METHODS: We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. RESULTS: We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit.

Biological exposure indicators: quantification of biological variability using toxicokinetic modeling

Compartmental and physiologically based toxicokinetic modeling coupled with Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify the impact of biological variability (physiological, biochemical, and anatomic parameters) on the values of a series of bio-indicators of metal and organic industrial chemical exposures. A variability extent index and the main parameters affecting biological indicators were identified. Results show a large diversity in interindividual variability for the different categories of biological indicators examined. Measurement of the unchanged substance in blood, alveolar air, or urine is much less variable than the measurement of metabolites, both in blood and urine. In most cases, the alveolar flow and cardiac output were identified as the prime parameters determining biological variability, thus suggesting the importance of workload intensity on absorbed dose for inhaled chemicals.

Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Measuring Party Positions and Issue Salience from Media Coverage: Introducing and Cross-Validating New Indicators

Recent studies have started to use media data to measure party positions and issue salience. The aim of this article is to compare and cross-validate this alternative approach with the more commonly used party manifestos, expert judgments and mass surveys. To this purpose, we present two methods to generate indicators of party positions and issue salience from media coverage: the core sentence approach and political claims analysis. Our cross-validation shows that with regard to party positions, indicators derived from the media converge with traditionally used measurements from party manifestos, mass surveys and expert judgments, but that salience indicators measure different underlying constructs. We conclude with a discussion of specific research questions for which media data offer potential advantages over more established methods.

Ability of different adiposity indicators to identify children with elevated blood pressure.

OBJECTIVE: Body composition measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is believed to be superior to crude measures such as BMI or waist circumference (WC) to assess health risks associated with adiposity in adults. We compared the ability of BMI, WC, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), percentage body fat from skinfold thickness, and measures of total and central fat assessed by DXA to identify children with elevated blood pressure (BP). STUDY DESIGN: The QUALITY Study follows 630 Caucasian families (father, mother, and child originally aged 8-10 years). BP, height, weight, WC, and skinfold thickness were measured according to standardized protocols. Elevated BP was defined as systolic or diastolic BP at least 90th age, sex, and height-specific percentile. Total and central fat were determined with DXA. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) statistic was computed from logistic models that adjusted for age, sex, height, Tanner stage, and physical activity. RESULTS: All adiposity indicators were highly correlated. WC and WHtR did not show superior ability over BMI to identify children with elevated SBP (P = 0.421 and 0.473). Measures of total and central fat from DXA did not show an improved ability over BMI or WC to identify children with elevated SBP (P = 0.325-0.662). CONCLUSION: Results support the use of BMI in clinical and public health settings, at least in this age group. As all indicators had a limited ability to identify children with elevated BP, results also support measurement of BP in all children of this age independent of a weight status.

Reproducibility of diabetes quality of care indicators as reported by patients and physicians.

INTRODUCTION: Self-report of diabetes care has moderate validity and is prone to under- and over-reporting. We assessed reproducibility of a range of processes and outcomes of diabetes care as reported by patients and physicians. METHODS: In a Swiss community-based survey, patients with diabetes and physicians independently reported past 12 months processes of care (HbA1c, lipids, microalbuminuria, blood pressure, weight, foot and eye examinations) and last measured values of HbA1c, height, weight and blood pressure. For dichotomous variables, we assessed reliability by Cohen's kappa and agreement by uniform kappa. For continuous measures, we used Lin's concordance correlation coefficient and limits of agreement, respectively. RESULTS: Mean age of the 210 patients was 65 years; 40% were women, and 51% had diabetes for >10 years. Agreement was good for recommended processes of care such as blood pressure (uniform kappa = 0.94), HbA1c (0.93), weight (0.88) and lipid (0.78), but lower for microalbuminuria, foot and eye examinations (all <0.50). Cohen's kappa values were all low (<0.25). Comparisons of reported continuous variables showed large limits of agreement for height (±6 cm) and weight (8-10 kg) despite high concordance correlation coefficients (0.93 and 0.97). Concordance correlation coefficients were smaller for HbA1c (0.72) and blood pressure (0.5-0.6), with large limits of agreement (±2% and ±25 mmHg). CONCLUSION: While agreement of routine processes of care was good, agreement was less satisfactory for microalbuminuria, foot and eye examinations. Reports of continuous outcomes yielded good reliability but too wide limits of agreement. Quality of care evaluation relying on self-report only should be made cautiously.

Mapping HIV/STI behavioural surveillance in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Used in conjunction with biological surveillance, behavioural surveillance provides data allowing for a more precise definition of HIV/STI prevention strategies. In 2008, mapping of behavioural surveillance in EU/EFTA countries was performed on behalf of the European Centre for Disease prevention and Control. METHOD: Nine questionnaires were sent to all 31 member States and EEE/EFTA countries requesting data on the overall behavioural and second generation surveillance system and on surveillance in the general population, youth, men having sex with men (MSM), injecting drug users (IDU), sex workers (SW), migrants, people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), and sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics patients. Requested data included information on system organisation (e.g. sustainability, funding, institutionalisation), topics covered in surveys and main indicators. RESULTS: Twenty-eight of the 31 countries contacted supplied data. Sixteen countries reported an established behavioural surveillance system, and 13 a second generation surveillance system (combination of biological surveillance of HIV/AIDS and STI with behavioural surveillance). There were wide differences as regards the year of survey initiation, number of populations surveyed, data collection methods used, organisation of surveillance and coordination with biological surveillance. The populations most regularly surveyed are the general population, youth, MSM and IDU. SW, patients of STI clinics and PLWHA are surveyed less regularly and in only a small number of countries, and few countries have undertaken behavioural surveys among migrant or ethnic minorities populations. In many cases, the identification of populations with risk behaviour and the selection of populations to be included in a BS system have not been formally conducted, or are incomplete. Topics most frequently covered are similar across countries, although many different indicators are used. In most countries, sustainability of surveillance systems is not assured. CONCLUSION: Although many European countries have established behavioural surveillance systems, there is little harmonisation as regards the methods and indicators adopted. The main challenge now faced is to build and maintain organised and functional behavioural and second generation surveillance systems across Europe, to increase collaboration, to promote robust, sustainable and cost-effective data collection methods, and to harmonise indicators.

The multi-facets of sustainable nanotechnology : lessons from a nanosafety symposium

An international symposium for nanosafety was held recently at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. Topics relating to understanding nanomaterial properties, tools, and infrastructure required for predicting hazardous outcomes, measuring nanomaterial exposure levels, systems approach for risk assessment and public's perception of nanotechnology were covered. The need for a multidisciplinary approach, across both natural and social sciences, for developing sustainable nanotechnology solutions was heavily emphasized. This commentary highlights the major issues discussed and the commitment of the nanosafety research community in Singapore to contribute collectively to realise the vision of sustainable nanotechnology.

Quality and safety requirements for sustainable phage therapy products.

The worldwide antibiotic crisis has led to a renewed interest in phage therapy. Since time immemorial phages control bacterial populations on Earth. Potent lytic phages against bacterial pathogens can be isolated from the environment or selected from a collection in a matter of days. In addition, phages have the capacity to rapidly overcome bacterial resistances, which will inevitably emerge. To maximally exploit these advantage phages have over conventional drugs such as antibiotics, it is important that sustainable phage products are not submitted to the conventional long medicinal product development and licensing pathway. There is a need for an adapted framework, including realistic production and quality and safety requirements, that allowsa timely supplying of phage therapy products for 'personalized therapy' or for public health or medical emergencies. This paper enumerates all phage therapy product related quality and safety risks known to the authors, as well as the tests that can be performed to minimize these risks, only to the extent needed to protect the patients and to allow and advance responsible phage therapy and research.