Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Plant functional and phylogenetic turnover correlate with climate and land use in the Western Swiss Alps

Understanding the relative importance of historical and environmental processes in the structure and composition of communities is one of the longest quests in ecological research. Increasingly, researchers are relying on the functional and phylogenetic β-diversity of natural communities to provide concise explanations on the mechanistic basis of community assembly and the drivers of trait variation among species. The present study investigated how plant functional and phylogenetic β-diversity change along key environmental and spatial gradients in the Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using the quadratic diversity measure based on six functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height (H), leaf carbon content (C), leaf nitrogen content (N), and leaf carbon to nitrogen content (C/N) alongside a species-resolved phylogenetic tree, we relate variations in climate, spatial geographic, land use and soil gradients to plant functional and phylogenetic turnover in mountain communities of the Western Swiss Alps. Important findings Our study highlights two main points. First, climate and land use factors play an important role in mountain plant community turnover. Second, the overlap between plant functional and phylogenetic turnover along these gradients correlates with the low phylogenetic signal in traits, suggesting that in mountain landscapes, trait lability is likely an important factor in driving plant community assembly. Overall, we demonstrate the importance of climate and land use factors in plant functional and phylogenetic community turnover, and provide valuable complementary insights into understanding patterns of β-diversity along several ecological gradients.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Circum-Alpine marine circulation and paleoenvironmental conditions during the Miocene

Trace element and isotopic compositions of marine fossils and sediment were analyzed from several Miocene deposits in the circum-Alpine region in order to reconstruct the paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes related to sea level changes, basin evolution and Alpine orogeny. To the north and the east the Alps were border by an epicontinental sea, the Paratethys, while to the south the Mediterranean surrounded the uplifting mountains during the Miocene. The thesis mainly focused on sediments and fossils sampled from Miocene beds of these two oceanic provinces. The north Alpine Molasse, the Vienna and Pannonian Basins were located in the Western and Central Paratethys. O-isotope compositions of well-preserved phosphatic fossils in these sediments support deposition under sub-tropical to warm-temperate climate with water temperatures between 14 to 28 °C for the Miocene. δ18O values of fossil shark teeth from different horizons vary similarly to those of the global trend until the end of the Badenian, however the δ18O values show wider range, which indicates local effects iii the sub-basins. The trend of 87Sr/86Sr in the samples roughly agrees with an open ocean environment for the Miocene. Yet a number of samples deviate from typical open ocean compositions with higher ratios suggesting modification of seawater by local and old terrestrial sources. In contrast, two exceptional teeth from the locality of La Moliere have extremely low δ18O values and low 87Sr/86Sr. However, the REE patterns of their enameloid are similar to those of teeth having O and Sr isotopic compositions typical of a marine setting at this site. Collectively, this suggests that the two teeth formed while the sharks frequented a freshwater environment with very low 18O-content and 87Sr/86Sr controlled by Mesozoic calcareous rocks. This is consistent with a paleogeography of high-elevation (~2300m) Miocene Alps adjacent to a marginal sea. The local effects are also reflected in the εNd values of the Paratethyan fossils, which is compatible with input from ancient crystalline rocks and Mesozoic sediments, while other samples with elevated εNd values indicate an influence of Neogene volcanism on the water budget. Excluding samples whose isotopic compositions reflect a local influence on the water column, an average εNd value of -7.9 ± 0.5 may be inferred for the Paratethys seawater. This value is indistinguishable from the Miocene value of the Indian Ocean, supporting a dominant role of ludo-Pacific water masses in the Paratethys. Regarding the Mediterranean, stable C-and O-isotope compositions of benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the Umbria-Marche region (UMC) have an offset typical for their habitats and the changes in composition mimic global changes, suggesting that the regional conditions of climate and the carbon cycle were controlled by global changes. The radiogenic isotope compositions of the fossil assemblages allow for distinction of periods. From 25 to 19 Ma, high εNd values and low 87Sr/86Sr of sediments and fossils support intense tectonism and volcanism, related to the opening of the western Mediterranean. Between 19 and 13 Ma the Mediterranean has εNd values that are largely controlled by incursion of Indian Ocean water. Brief periods of local hinterland control on seawater compositions are indicated by spikes in the εNd record, coinciding with volcanic events and a short sea-level decrease at about 15.2 Ma. Lower 87Sr/86Sr compared to the open ocean is compatible with rapid uplift of the hinterland and intense influx of Sr from Mesozoic carbonates of the western Apennines, while higher 87Sr/86Sr for other sites indicates erosion of old crustal silicate rocks. Finally, from 13 to 7 Ma the fossils have 87Sr/86Sr similar to those of Miocene seawater and their εNd values indicates fluctuating influence of Atlantic, and Indian Ocean or Paratethys sources of seawater entering the Mediterranean, driven by global sealevel changes and local tectonism. RÉSUMÉ DE LA THÈSE Les compositions en éléments traces et isotopiques de fossiles marins et de sédiments on été analysées à partir de nombreux dépôts marins dans la région circum Alpine dans le but de reconstruire les changements paléocéanographiques et paléoclimatiques liés aux changements du niveau marin, à l'évolution en bassins et à l'orogénie alpine. Au nord et à l'est des Alpes, une mer épicontinentale appelée Paratéthys s'est ouverte, alors que plus au sud la mer Méditerranée bordait au Miocène les Alpes naissantes. Le but de cette recherche est de se concentrer sur les sédiments et les fossiles provenant des couches du Miocènes de ces deux provinces marines. Les bassins de la Molasse Alpine du nord, de Vienne et Pannonien étaient situés au niveau de la Paratéthys Occidentale et Centrale. Les compositions isotopiques de l'oxygène de fossiles phosphatés bien préservés dans ces sédiments étayent la théorie d'un dépôt sous un climat subtropical à tempéré chaud avec des températures entre 14 et 28°C pendant le Miocène. Les valeurs δ18O des fossiles sont similaires à la tendance globale jusqu'à la fin du Badénien. Cependant les larges fluctuations en δ18O indiquent des effets locaux au niveau des sous bassins. En outre, deux dents de requin exceptionnelles présentent des valeurs extrêmement basses de δ18O. Ces données suggèrent que ces deux dents se sont formées alors que les requins fréquentaient un environnement d'eau douce avec de faibles valeurs de 18O. Le calcul de la composition isotopique de l'oxygène de cette eau douce permet d'obtenir une estimation de la paléoélévatian moyenne des Alpes du Miocène (~2300m). La tendance 87Sr/86Sr pour ces échantillons concorde approximativement avec un environnement d'océan ouvert au cours du Miocène. Toutefois un nombre d'échantillons dévie des compositions d'océan ouvert typiques, avec des rapports élevés suggérant des modifications de l'eau de mer par des sources locales et terrestres. Les effets locaux sont aussi reflétés au niveau des valeurs en εNd des fossiles paratéthysiens. Ceci est cohérent avec un apport d'anciennes roches cristallines et de sédiments mésozoïques, tandis que d'autres échantillons avec des valeurs hautes de εNd indiquent une influence d'un volcanisme néogène dans le budget marin. En excluant les échantillons dont les compositions isotopiques confirment une influence locale, une valeur moyenne de εNd de 7.9 t 0.5 peut être déduite pour l'eau de la Parathétys. Cette valeur est semblable à la valeur correspondant à l'Océan Indien durant le Miocène, confirmant un rôle dominant de cet océan dans la Paratéthys. Au niveau de la Méditerranée, les compositions en isotopes stables du Carbone et de l'Oxygène de foraminifères planctoniques et benthique de la région Umbria-Marche présentent un offset typique à leurs habitats. De plus les changements dans leurs compositions suivent les changements globaux, suggérant ainsi que les conditions climatiques régionales et le cycle du carbone étaient contrôlés par des phénomènes globaux. La composition en isotopes radiogéniques d'assemblages fossiles permet une reconnaissance sur trois périodes distinctes. De 25 à 19 millions d'années (Ma), des valeurs élevées de εNd et un faible rapport 87Sr/86Sr dans les sédiments soutiennent l'idée d'une activité tectonique et volcanique intense, liée à l'ouverture de la Méditerranée occidentale. Entre 19 et 13 Ma, la Méditerranée montre des valeurs de εNd qui sont largement contrôlées par une incursion d'eau provenant de l'Océan Indien. En effet, aux alentours de 15,2 Ma, des pics dans l'enregistrement des valeurs de εNd, coïncidant avec des événements volcaniques et de brèves diminutions du niveau marin. Enfin, de 13 à 7 Ma, les fossiles ont des rapports ß7Sr/8fiSr similaires à ceux de l'eau de mer au Miocène. Leurs valeurs de εNd indiquent une influence changeante de l'océan Atlantique, et de l'océan Indien ou des sources d'eau de merde la Parathétys qui entrent dans les bassins méditerranéens. Ce changement est guidé par des modifications globales du niveau marin et par la tectonique locale. RÉSUMÉ DE LA THÈSE (POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC) Les analyses des compositions en éléments traces et isotopiques des fossiles marins sont un outil très utile pour reconstruire les conditions océaniques et climatiques anciennes. Ce travail de thèse se concentre sur les sédiments déposés dans un environnement marin proches des Alpes au cours du Miocène, entre 23 et 7 millions d'années (Ma). Cette période est caractérisée par une tectonique alpine active, ainsi que par des changements climatiques et océanographiques globaux importants. Dans le but de tracer ces changements, les compositions isotopiques du Strontium, du Néodyme, de l'Oxygène et du Carbone ont été analysées dans des fossiles bien préservés ainsi que les sédiments contemporains. Les échantillons proviennent de deux provinces océaniques distinctes, la première est la Mer Méditerranée, et l'autre est une mer épicontinentale appelée Parathétys, qui existait au nord et à l'est des Alpes durant le Miocène. Au niveau de la Parathétys Occidentale et Orientale, les compositions isotopiques d'oxygène de dents de requins confirment un dépôt sous un climat subtropical à tempéré chaud avec des températures d'eau entre 14 et 28°C au Miocène. En outre, deux dents de requins exceptionnelles ont enregistré des compositions isotopiques d'oxygène extrêmement basses. Cela suggère que ces deux dents se sont formées alors que les requins entraient dans un système d'eau douce. Le calcul de la composition isotopique de l'oxygène de cette eau douce permet d'obtenir une estimation de la paléoélévation des Alpes au Miocène qui est aussi élevée que celle d'aujourd'hui. La tendance isotopique du Strontium pour ces échantillons concorde approximativement avec un environnement d'océan ouvert. Cependant un certain nombre d'échantillons indique des modifications de l'eau de mer par des sources terrestres locales. Les effets locaux sont aussi visibles au niveau des compositions isotopiques du Néodyme, qui sont en accord avec un apport provenant de roches cristallines anciennes et de sédiments du Mésozoïque, alors que d'autres échantillons indiquent une influence volcanique néogène dans le budget marin. A l'exclusion des échantillons dont les compositions correspondent à une influence locale, les compositions isotopiques du Néodyme de la Parathétys sont très similaires aux valeurs de l'Océan Indien, montrant ainsi un rôle important des masses d'eau IndoPacifiques dans cette région. Au niveau de la Méditerranée, les compositions en isotopes stables du Carbone et de l'Oxygène de foraminifères planctoniques et benthique de la région Umbria-Marche présentent un offset typique à leurs habitats. De plus, les changements dans leurs compositions suivent les changements globaux, suggérant ainsi que les conditions climatiques régionales et le cycle du carbone étaient contrôlés par des phénomènes globaux. La composition en isotopes radiogéniques d'assemblages fossiles permet une reconnaissance sur trois périodes distinctes. De 25 à 19 Ma, des rapport isotopiques élevés pour le Néodyme et faibles pour le Strontium dans les sédiments et les fossiles soutiennent l'idée d'une activité tectonique et volcanique intense, liée à l'ouverture de la Méditerranée occidentale. Entre 19 et 13 Ma, la Méditerranée présente des rapports isotopiques du Néodyme qui sont largement contrôlés par une incursion d'eau provenant de l'Océan Indien. En effet, aux alentours de 15,2 Ma, des pics dans l'enregistrement des valeurs des isotopes du Néodyme coïncident avec des événements volcaniques et de brèves diminutions du niveau marin. Finalement, de 13 à 7 Ma, les fossiles ont des rapports isotope Strontium similaires à ceux de l'eau de mer au Miocène. Les rapports isotopiques du Néodyme indiquent une influence changeante de l'océan Atlantique, et de l'océan Indien ou des sources d'eau de mer de la Parathétys qui entrent dans les bassins méditerranéens. Ce changement est guidé par des modifications globales du niveau marin et par la tectonique locale.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Climate and vegetation history of western Portugal inferred from Albian near-shore deposits (Gale Formation, Lusitanian Basin)

The late Early Cretaceous greenhouse climate has been studied intensively based on proxy data derived essentially from open marine archives. In contrast, information on continental climatic conditions and on the accompanying response of vegetation is relatively scarce, most notably owing to the stratigraphic uncertainties associated with many Lower Cretaceous terrestrial deposits. Here, we present a palynological record from Albian near-shore deposits of the Lusitanian Basin of W Portugal, which have been independently dated using Sr-isotope signals derived from low-Mg oyster shell calcite. Sr-87/Sr-86 values fluctuate between 0.707373 +/- 0.00002 and 0.707456 +/- 0.00003; absolute values and the overall stratigraphic trend match well with the global open marine seawater signature during Albian times. Based on the new Sr-isotope data, existing biostratigraphic assignments of the succession are corroborated and partly revised. Spore-pollen data provide information on the vegetation community structure and are flanked by sedimentological and clay mineralogical data used to infer the overall climatic conditions prevailing on the adjacent continent. Variations in the distribution of climate-sensitive pollen and spores indicate distinct changes in moisture availability across the studied succession with a pronounced increase in hygrophilous spores in late Early Albian times. Comparison with time-equivalent palynofloras from the Algarve Basin of southern Portugal shows pronounced differences in the xerophyte/hygrophyte ratio, interpreted to reflect the effect of a broad arid climate belt covering southern and southeastern Iberia during Early Albian times.

Functional homogenization of bumblebee communities in alpine landscapes under projected climate change

Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.

Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology in relation to breeding season climate

Winter weather has a strong influence on Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology. Here, we analyzed the impacts of weather conditions on reproductive performance during the breeding season using data collected over 22 years in a Swiss Barn Owl population. Variations in rain and temperature during the breeding season played an important role in within-year variation in Barn Owl reproduction. An increase in rainfall during the period from 4 to 2 weeks preceding egg laying had a positive effect on clutch size. In contrast, fledgling body mass was negatively influenced by rainfall during the 24 h preceding the measurements. Finally, ambient temperature during the rearing period was positively associated with brood size at fledging. In conclusion, weather conditions during the breeding season place constraints on Barn Owl reproduction.

Practice guidelines for evaluation of Fever in returning travelers and migrants.

BACKGROUND: Fever upon return from tropical or subtropical regions can be caused by diseases that are rapidly fatal if left untreated. The differential diagnosis is wide. Physicians often lack the necessary knowledge to appropriately take care of such patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop practice guidelines for the initial evaluation of patients presenting with fever upon return from a tropical or subtropical country in order to reduce delays and potential fatal outcomes and to improve knowledge of physicians. TARGET AUDIENCE: Medical personnel, usually physicians, who see the returning patients, primarily in an ambulatory setting or in an emergency department of a hospital and specialists in internal medicine, infectious diseases, and travel medicine. METHOD: A systematic review of the literature--mainly extracted from the National Library of Medicine database--was performed between May 2000 and April 2001, using the keywords fever and/or travel and/or migrant and/or guidelines. Eventually, 250 articles were reviewed. The relevant elements of evidence were used in combination with expert knowledge to construct an algorithm with arborescence flagging the level of specialization required to deal with each situation. The proposed diagnoses and treatment plans are restricted to tropical or subtropical diseases (nonautochthonous diseases). The decision chart is accompanied with a detailed document that provides for each level of the tree the degree of evidence and the grade of recommendation as well as the key points of debate. PARTICIPANTS AND CONSENSUS PROCESS: Besides the 4 authors (2 specialists in travel/tropical medicine, 1 clinical epidemiologist, and 1 resident physician), a panel of 11 European physicians with different levels of expertise on travel medicine reviewed the guidelines. Thereafter, each point of the proposed recommendations was discussed with 15 experts in travel/tropical medicine from various continents. A final version was produced and submitted for evaluation to all participants. CONCLUSION: Although the quality of evidence was limited by the paucity of clinical studies, these guidelines established with the support of a large and highly experienced panel should help physicians to deal with patients coming back from the Tropics with fever.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Reconstruction Of Past Climate Conditions Over Central Europe From Groundwater Data

Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.