The database search problem: a question of rational decision making

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Stability of repeated student evaluations of teaching in the second preclinical year of a medical curriculum

RESUME L'étude de la médecine à la Faculté de l'Université de Lausanne est un cursus de six ans. Depuis la réforme générale du curriculum en octobre 1995, le programme de la deuxième année consacrée à l'étude de l'être humain sain a été transformé. L'enseignement intégré par système ou organe a été introduit en remplaçant l'enseignement par discipline. Parallèlement, un système d'évaluation de l'enseignement par les étudiants a été proposé. Il a été amélioré au fil des années et depuis l'année académique 1998-99, l'évaluation est devenue systémique et régulière. Notre étude présente et compare les résultats des évaluations de l'enseignement et des enseignants de neuf cours intégrés dispensés en deuxième année durant deux années académiques (1998-99 et 1999-2000). Une forte corrélation entre les résultats des deux années consécutives ainsi qu'une importante disparité des estimations à l'intérieure de chacune de deux années ont été observées. Ceci démontre un engagement sérieux des étudiants dans le processus d'évaluation, révèle la pertinence de leur analyse et leur bonne capacité de discernement. L'analyse de nos résultats montre que les évaluations effectuées par les étudiants peuvent constituer une source fiable d'informations et contribuer à l'amélioration du processus d'enseignement.

Independent contribution of parental migrant status and educational level to adiposity and eating habits in preschool children.

Background/Objective:Little is known about the precise role of parental migrant status (MS) and educational level (EL) on adiposity and various eating habits in young children. Therefore, we assessed their independent contribution in preschoolers.Subjects/Methods:Of 655 randomly selected preschoolers, 542 (5.1±0.6 years; 71% of parental MS and 37% of low parental EL) were analysed. Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance. Eating habits were assessed using a semiqualitative food frequency questionnaire and analysed according to five messages developed by the Swiss Society for Nutrition, based on factors implicated in childhood obesity: (1) 'Drinking water and decreasing sweetened drinks', (2) 'Eating fruit and vegetables', (3) 'Decreasing breakfast skipping', (4) 'Reducing fatty and sweet foods' and (5) 'Reducing the intake of meals and snacks in front of television'.Results:Children of migrant and low EL parents had higher body fat, ate more meals and snacks while watching television and had more fruit and fatty foods compared with their respective counterparts (all P0.04). Children of low EL parents also consumed less water and vegetables compared with their counterparts (all P0.04). In most instances, we found an independent contribution of parental MS and EL to adiposity and eating habits. A more pronounced effect was found if both parents were migrants or of low EL. Differences in adiposity and eating habits were relatively similar to the joint parental data when assessed individually for maternal and paternal MS and EL.Conclusions:Parental MS and EL are independently related to adiposity and various eating habits in preschoolers.European Journal of Clinical Nutrition advance online publication, 3 November 2010; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2010.248.

Influence des habitudes alimentaires sur la morbidité chez 645 patients obèses d'une consultation spécialisée. [Effect of eating habits on morbidity in 645 patients at a specialized clinic].

Among 645 obese patients examined at an out-patient clinic for obese patients by physical examination and a computerized questionnaire, two subgroups of patients could be identified according to their nutritional preferences: 177 patients preferred carbohydrates exclusively (group A) and 73 patients fat exclusively (group B). No definite preferences were formulated by the other patients. Among patients under 25 years, only 3 belonged to group B and 49 to group A, while in older patients no significant differences were found. Among patients with BMI less than 30, there were significantly fewer patients from group B than from group A (p = 0.006), while in patients with BMI greater than 30 no significant difference was observed. There were significantly more men in group B than in group A. 57% of the patients of group B complained of physical symptoms related to their obesity, compared to 37% in group A (p = 0.006). 26% of group B suffered from joints and muscles compared to 13% of group A (p = 0.003). Hyperglycemia (greater than 5,6 mmol/l) was found in 21% of group A and in 40% of group B (p less than 0.005). Hypercholesterolemia (greater than 6.5 mmol/l) was found in 20% of group A and in 32% of group B (p less than 0.05). In conclusion, obese patients who prefer fat have more general symptoms related to obesity, more abnormal physical signs, and more frequently have hyperglycemia and hypercholesterolemia than patients who prefer carbohydrates.

Genome-wide search reveals a novel GacA-regulated small RNA in Pseudomonas species.

BACKGROUND: Small RNAs (sRNAs) are widespread among bacteria and have diverse regulatory roles. Most of these sRNAs have been discovered by a combination of computational and experimental methods. In Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a ubiquitous Gram-negative bacterium and opportunistic human pathogen, the GacS/GacA two-component system positively controls the transcription of two sRNAs (RsmY, RsmZ), which are crucial for the expression of genes involved in virulence. In the biocontrol bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, three GacA-controlled sRNAs (RsmX, RsmY, RsmZ) regulate the response to oxidative stress and the expression of extracellular products including biocontrol factors. RsmX, RsmY and RsmZ contain multiple unpaired GGA motifs and control the expression of target mRNAs at the translational level, by sequestration of translational repressor proteins of the RsmA family. RESULTS: A combined computational and experimental approach enabled us to identify 14 intergenic regions encoding sRNAs in P. aeruginosa. Eight of these regions encode newly identified sRNAs. The intergenic region 1698 was found to specify a novel GacA-controlled sRNA termed RgsA. GacA regulation appeared to be indirect. In P. fluorescens CHA0, an RgsA homolog was also expressed under positive GacA control. This 120-nt sRNA contained a single GGA motif and, unlike RsmX, RsmY and RsmZ, was unable to derepress translation of the hcnA gene (involved in the biosynthesis of the biocontrol factor hydrogen cyanide), but contributed to the bacterium's resistance to hydrogen peroxide. In both P. aeruginosa and P. fluorescens the stress sigma factor RpoS was essential for RgsA expression. CONCLUSION: The discovery of an additional sRNA expressed under GacA control in two Pseudomonas species highlights the complexity of this global regulatory system and suggests that the mode of action of GacA control may be more elaborate than previously suspected. Our results also confirm that several GGA motifs are required in an sRNA for sequestration of the RsmA protein.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Iron Supplementation Therapy in a Large Swiss Cohort of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: Shift from Oral to Intravenous Therapy over Time

Background a nd A ims: T he 2 007 ECCO g uidelines o nanemia in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) favour intravenous(iv) over oral (po) i ron supplementation due to bettereffectiveness and tolerance. Application of guidelines in clinicalpractice m ay r equire time. We a imed to determine thepercentage of IBD patients under iron supplementation therapyand its application mode over time in a large IBD cohort.Methods: Helsana, a leading Swiss health insurance companyprovides c overage f or approximately 18% of t he Swisspopulation, corresponding to about 1.2 million enrollees.Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC)were identified b y keyword search from t he a nonymisedHelsana database.Results: I n total, 6 29 CD ( 61% female) a nd 4 03 UC ( 56%female) patients w ere identified, mean retrospectiveobservation time w as 2 0.4 m onths f or CD and 13 m onths f orUC patients. Of t he entire study population, 29.3% wereprescribed iron. O ccurrence of iron prescription was 21.3% inmales a nd 31.2% in f emales ( odds r atio [OR] 1 .69, 95%-confidence interval [CI] 1.26-2.28). The prescription of iv i ronincreased from 2006/2007 ( 48.8% w ith iv i ron) to 2 008/2009(65.2% with iv iron) by a factor of 1.89.Conclusions: One third of the IBD population was treated withiron supplementation. A gradual s hift from oral t o iv iron wasobserved over time in a large Swiss IBD cohort. This switch inprescription habits g oes a long with the implementation of theECCO consensus guidelines on anemia in IBD.

Etude prospective d'évaluation psychiatrique et pédagogique dans un service pour adolescents de la Fondation Santé des Etudiants de France. Méthodologie et résultats préliminaires [Prospective study of psychiatric and pedagogic evaluation of the adolescent service of the Student Health Foundation of France. Methodology and preliminary results].

The present prospective study, with a five-year follow-up, presents an extensive psychiatric and educational assessment of an adolescent population (N = 30) in the age range 14-20, suffering from several psychiatric disorders, though apt to follow a normal academic program. The residential settings where the study took place provide both psychiatric and schooling facilities. In this environment, what is the effectiveness of long-term hospitalization? Are there any criteria for predicting results? After discharge, could social adjustments difficulties be prevented? Assessment instruments are described and the results of one preliminary study are presented. The actual data seems to confirm the impact of the special treatment facilities combining schooling and psychiatric settings on the long term outcome of adolescents.