Prediction of fat-free mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis in young adults from five populations of African origin.

Background/objectives:Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is used in population and clinical studies as a technique for estimating body composition. Because of significant under-representation in existing literature, we sought to develop and validate predictive equation(s) for BIA for studies in populations of African origin.Subjects/methods:Among five cohorts of the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, height, weight, waist circumference and body composition, using isotope dilution, were measured in 362 adults, ages 25-45 with mean body mass indexes ranging from 24 to 32. BIA measures of resistance and reactance were measured using tetrapolar placement of electrodes and the same model of analyzer across sites (BIA 101Q, RJL Systems). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop equations for predicting fat-free mass (FFM), as measured by isotope dilution; covariates included sex, age, waist, reactance and height(2)/resistance, along with dummy variables for each site. Developed equations were then tested in a validation sample; FFM predicted by previously published equations were tested in the total sample.Results:A site-combined equation and site-specific equations were developed. The mean differences between FFM (reference) and FFM predicted by the study-derived equations were between 0.4 and 0.6âeuro0/00kg (that is, 1% difference between the actual and predicted FFM), and the measured and predicted values were highly correlated. The site-combined equation performed slightly better than the site-specific equations and the previously published equations.Conclusions:Relatively small differences exist between BIA equations to estimate FFM, whether study-derived or published equations, although the site-combined equation performed slightly better than others. The study-derived equations provide an important tool for research in these understudied populations.

Markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

BACKGROUND: Several markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation have been shown to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) individually. However, the utility of markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation on prediction of CHD over traditional risk factors has not been well established, especially in the elderly. METHODS: We studied 2202 men and women, aged 70-79, without baseline cardiovascular disease over 6-year follow-up to assess the risk of incident CHD associated with baseline noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-arm index [AAI], aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], tumor necrosis factor-a [TNF-a]). CHD events were studied as either nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death ("hard" events), and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures (total CHD events). RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, 283 participants had CHD events (including 136 "hard" events). IL-6, TNF-a and AAI independently predicted CHD events above Framingham Risk Score (FRS) with hazard ratios [HR] for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for IL-6 of 1.95 (95%CI: 1.38-2.75, p for trend<0.001), TNF-a of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.04-2.02, p for trend 0.03), of 1.66 (95%CI: 1.19-2.31) for AAI £0.9, as compared to AAI 1.01-1.30. CRP and aPWV were not independently associated with CHD events. Results were similar for "hard" CHD events. Addition of IL-6 and AAI to traditional cardiovascular risk factors yielded the greatest improvement in the prediction of CHD; C-index for "hard"/total CHD events increased from 0.62/0.62 for traditional risk factors to 0.64/0.64 for IL-6 addition, 0.65/0.63 for AAI, and 0.66/0.64 for IL-6 combined with AAI. Being in the highest quartile of IL-6 combined with an AAI £ 0.90 or >1.40 yielded an HR of 2.51 (1.50-4.19) and 4.55 (1.65-12.50) above FRS, respectively. With use of CHD risk categories, risk prediction at 5 years was more accurate in models that included IL-6, AAI or both, with 8.0, 8.3 and 12.1% correctly reclassified respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation, particularly IL-6 and AAI, are independently associated with CHD. However, these markers only modestly improve cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by Contracts NO1-AG-6-2101, NO1-AG-6- 2103, and NO1-AG-6-2106 of the National Institute on Aging. This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute on Aging.

Prediction and discrimination of osteoporotic hip fracture in postmenopausal women.

Osteoporotic hip fractures increase dramatically with age and are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality. Several treatments to prevent the occurrence of hip fracture have been validated in large randomized trials and the current challenge is to improve the identification of individuals at high risk of fracture who would benefit from therapeutic or preventive intervention. We have performed an exhaustive literature review on hip fracture predictors, focusing primarily on clinical risk factors, dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), quantitative ultrasound, and bone markers. This review is based on original articles and meta-analyses. We have selected studies that aim both to predict the risk of hip fracture and to discriminate individuals with or without fracture. We have included only postmenopausal women in our review. For studies involving both men and women, only results concerning women have been considered. Regarding clinical factors, only prospective studies have been taken into account. Predictive factors have been used as stand-alone tools to predict hip fracture or sequentially through successive selection processes or by combination into risk scores. There is still much debate as to whether or not the combination of these various parameters, as risk scores or as sequential or concurrent combinations, could help to better predict hip fracture. There are conflicting results on whether or not such combinations provide improvement over each method alone. Sequential combination of bone mineral density and ultrasound parameters might be cost-effective compared with DXA alone, because of fewer bone mineral density measurements. However, use of multiple techniques may increase costs. One problem that precludes comparison of most published studies is that they use either relative risk, or absolute risk, or sensitivity and specificity. The absolute risk of individuals given their risk factors and bone assessment results would be a more appropriate model for decision-making than relative risk. Currently, a group appointed by the World Health Organization and lead by Professor John Kanis is working on such a model. It will therefore be possible to further assess the best choice of threshold to optimize the number of women needed to screen for each country and each treatment.

Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS.¦METHODS: Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization.¦RESULTS: During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS.¦CONCLUSIONS: The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Pooling of dentin microtensile bond strength data improves clinical correlation.

Purpose: To evaluate whether the correlation between in vitro bond strength data and estimated clinical retention rates of cervical restorations after two years depends on pooled data obtained from multicenter studies or single-test data. Materials and Methods: Pooled mean data for six dentin adhesive systems (Adper Prompt L-Pop, Clearfil SE, OptiBond FL, Prime & Bond NT, Single Bond, and Scotchbond Multipurpose) and four laboratory methods (macroshear, microshear, macrotensile and microtensile bond strength test) (Scherrer et al, 2010) were correlated to estimated pooled two-year retention rates of Class V restorations using the same adhesive systems. For bond strength data from a single test institute, the literature search in SCOPUS revealed one study that tested all six adhesive systems (microtensile) and two that tested five of the six systems (microtensile, macroshear). The correlation was determined with a database designed to perform a meta-analysis on the clinical performance of cervical restorations (Heintze et al, 2010). The clinical data were pooled and adjusted in a linear mixed model, taking the study effect, dentin preparation, type of isolation and bevelling of enamel into account. A regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation between clinical and laboratory findings. Results: The results of the regression analysis for the pooled data revealed that only the macrotensile (adjusted R2 = 0.86) and microtensile tests (adjusted R2 = 0.64), but not the shear and the microshear tests, correlated well with the clinical findings. As regards the data from a single-test institute, the correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Macrotensile and microtensile bond strength tests showed an adequate correlation with the retention rate of cervical restorations after two years. Bond strength tests should be carried out by different operators and/or research institutes to determine the reliability and technique sensitivity of the material under investigation.

Techniques d'évaluation de la force des muscles respiratoires. [Techniques for assessing respiratory muscle strength.]

La faiblesse des muscles respiratoires peut entraîner une dyspnée, un encombrement bronchique et une insuffisance respiratoire potentiellement fatale. L'évaluation de la force musculaire respiratoire s'impose donc dans les affections neuro-musculaires, mais également dans les situations de dyspnée inexpliquée par une première évaluation cardiaque et pulmonaire. À la spirométrie, une faiblesse musculaire est suspectée sur la base de la boucle débit-volume montrant un débit de pointe émoussé et une fin prématurée de l'expiration. Une diminution importante de la capacité vitale en position couchée suggère une paralysie diaphragmatique. La force inspiratoire est mesurée par la pression inspiratoire maximale (PImax) contre une quasi-occlusion des voies aériennes. Ce test relativement difficile est d'interprétation délicate en cas de collaboration insuffisante. La mesure de la pression nasale sniff (SNIP) est une alternative utile, car elle élimine le problème des fuites autour de l'embout buccal et la réalisation du reniflement est facile. De même, la pression trans-diaphragmatique sniff mesure la force du diaphragme au moyen de sondes oesophagienne et gastrique. En cas de collaboration insuffisante, on peut recourir à la stimulation magnétique des nerfs phréniques qui induit une contraction non-volontaire du diaphragme. La force expiratoire est mesurée par la pression expiratoire maximale (PEmax) contre une quasi-occlusion. La force disponible pour tousser est mesurée par la pression gastrique à la toux, ou plus simplement par le débit de pointe à la toux. Chez les patients à risque, la mesure de la force des muscles respiratoires permet d'instaurer à temps une assistance ventilatoire ou à la toux.

Strength of family history in predicting levels of blood pressure, plasma glucose and cholesterol

Rapport de synthèse : L'histoire familiale reflète non seulement la susceptibilité génétique d'un individu à certaines maladies mais également ses comportements et habitudes, notamment partagées au sein d'une famille. L'hypertension artérielle, le diabète et l'hypercholestérolémie sont des facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire modifiables hautement prévalent. L'association entre l'histoire familiale d'hypertension artérielle ou de diabète et le risque accru de développer de l'hypertension artérielle ou du diabète, respectivement, a été préalablement établie. Par contre, le lien entre l'histoire familiale de facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire et les traits continus correspondants n'avaient jamais été mis clairement en évidence. De même, la signification d'une histoire familiale inconnue n'avait jusqu'alors pas été décrite. Ce travail, effectué dans le cadre de l'étude Colaus (Cohorte Lausannoise), une cohorte regroupant un échantillon composé de 6102 participants âgés de 35 à 75 ans sélectionnés au hasard dans la population lausannoise, a permis de décrire en détail la relation entre l'histoire familiale des facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaires et les trait correspondants dans la population étudiée. Les différentes analyses statistiques ont permis de mettre en évidence une relation forte entre l'histoire familiale d'hypertension artérielle, de diabète ainsi que de l'hypercholestérolémie et leurs traits dichotomique et continu correspondants. Les anamnèses des frères et soeurs avaient des valeurs prédictives positives plus élevées que les anamnèses parentales. Ceci signifie que les programmes de dépistage ne prenant en compte que l'histoire familiale des frères et soeurs seraient probablement plus efficaces que ceux qui comportent l'évaluation des anamnèses paternelle et maternelle. Plus de 40% des participants ignoraient l'histoire familiale d'hypertension d'au moins un des membres de leur famille. Ceux-ci avaient des valeurs de tension artérielle systolique plus élevées que ceux dont l'histoire familiale était négative, permettant de souligner la valeur prédictive du fait de ne pas connaître l'histoire familiale d'hypertension artérielle. Ces résultats montrent également que, lors d'analyses de la relation entre l'anamnèse familiale de facteurs de risque cardiovasculaires et leurs traits correspondants, les participants donnant des réponses négatives doivent être distingués de ceux qui ne connaissent pas leur anamnèse familiale. Les résultats de cette étude confirment la place centrale qu'occupe l'anamnèse familiale dans l'évaluation du risque cardio-vasculaire auprès de la population générale. L'importance de cet outil prédictif simple et bon marché ne va cesser d'augmenter avec la disponibilité croissante d'information génétique détaillée pour les maladies cardiovasculaires communes.

How to assess prognosis after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia.

The prognosis of patients who are admitted in a comatose state following successful resuscitation after cardiac arrest remains uncertain. Although the introduction of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and improvements in post-resuscitation care have significantly increased the number of patients who are discharged home with minimal brain damage, short-term assessment of neurological outcome remains a challenge. The need for early and accurate prognostic predictors is crucial, especially since sedation and TH may alter the neurological examination and delay the recovery of motor response for several days. The development of additional tools, including electrophysiological examinations (electroencephalography and somatosensory evoked potentials), neuroimaging and chemical biomarkers, may help to evaluate the extent of brain injury in these patients. Given the extensive literature existing on this topic and the confounding effects of TH on the strength of these tools in outcome prognostication after cardiac arrest, the aim of this narrative review is to provide a practical approach to post-anoxic brain injury when TH is used. We also discuss when and how these tools could be combined with the neurological examination in a multimodal approach to improve outcome prediction in this population.

Personalized modeling for drug concentration prediction using Support Vector Machine

Building a personalized model to describe the drug concentration inside the human body for each patient is highly important to the clinical practice and demanding to the modeling tools. Instead of using traditional explicit methods, in this paper we propose a machine learning approach to describe the relation between the drug concentration and patients' features. Machine learning has been largely applied to analyze data in various domains, but it is still new to personalized medicine, especially dose individualization. We focus mainly on the prediction of the drug concentrations as well as the analysis of different features' influence. Models are built based on Support Vector Machine and the prediction results are compared with the traditional analytical models.

Prediction of infant drug exposure through breastfeeding: population PK modeling and simulation of fluoxetine

BACKGROUND: Risks of significant infant drug exposurethrough breastmilk are poorly defined for many drugs, and largescalepopulation data are lacking. We used population pharmacokinetics(PK) modeling to predict fluoxetine exposure levels ofinfants via mother's milk in a simulated population of 1000 motherinfantpairs.METHODS: Using our original data on fluoxetine PK of 25breastfeeding women, a population PK model was developed withNONMEM and parameters, including milk concentrations, wereestimated. An exponential distribution model was used to account forindividual variation. Simulation random and distribution-constrainedassignment of doses, dosing time, feeding intervals and milk volumewas conducted to generate 1000 mother-infant pairs with characteristicssuch as the steady-state serum concentrations (Css) and infantdose relative to the maternal weight-adjusted dose (relative infantdose: RID). Full bioavailability and a conservative point estimate of1-month-old infant CYP2D6 activity to be 20% of the adult value(adjusted by weigth) according to a recent study, were assumed forinfant Css calculations.RESULTS: A linear 2-compartment model was selected as thebest model. Derived parameters, including milk-to-plasma ratios(mean: 0.66; SD: 0.34; range, 0 - 1.1) were consistent with the valuesreported in the literature. The estimated RID was below 10% in >95%of infants. The model predicted median infant-mother Css ratio was0.096 (range 0.035 - 0.25); literature reported mean was 0.07 (range0-0.59). Moreover, the predicted incidence of infant-mother Css ratioof >0.2 was less than 1%.CONCLUSION: Our in silico model prediction is consistent withclinical observations, suggesting that substantial systemic fluoxetineexposure in infants through human milk is rare, but further analysisshould include active metabolites. Our approach may be valid forother drugs. [supported by CIHR and Swiss National Science Foundation(SNSF)]

IL28B expression depends on a novel TT/-G polymorphism which improves HCV clearance prediction.

Approximately 3% of the world population is chronically infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), with potential development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Despite the availability of new antiviral agents, treatment remains suboptimal. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified rs12979860, a polymorphism nearby IL28B, as an important predictor of HCV clearance. We report the identification of a novel TT/-G polymorphism in the CpG region upstream of IL28B, which is a better predictor of HCV clearance than rs12979860. By using peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from individuals carrying different allelic combinations of the TT/-G and rs12979860 polymorphisms, we show that induction of IL28B and IFN-γ-inducible protein 10 (IP-10) mRNA relies on TT/-G, but not rs12979860, making TT/-G the only functional variant identified so far. This novel step in understanding the genetic regulation of IL28B may have important implications for clinical practice, as the use of TT/G genotyping instead of rs12979860 would improve patient management.

Shoulder strength imbalances as injury risk in handball.

This study was conducted to analyze whether internal (IR) and external (ER) rotator shoulder muscles weakness and/or imbalance collected through a preseason assessment could be predictors of subsequent shoulder injury during a season in handball players. In preseason, 16 female elite handball players (HPG) and 14 healthy female nonathletes (CG) underwent isokinetic IR and ER strength test with use of a Con-Trex® dynamometer in a seated position with 45° shoulder abduction in scapular plane, at 60, 120 and 240°/s in concentric and at 60°/s in eccentric, for both sides. An imbalanced muscular strength profile was determined using -statistically selected cut-offs from CG values. For HPG, all newly incurred shoulder injuries were reported during the season. There were significant differences between HPG and CG only for dominant eccentric IR strength, ER/IR ratio at 240°/s and for IRecc/ERcon ratio. In HPG, IR and ER strength was higher, and ER/IR ratios lower for dominant than for nondominant side. The relative risk was 2.57 (95%CI: 1.60-3.54; P<0.05) if handball players had an imbalanced muscular strength profile. In youth female handball players IR and ER muscle strength increases on the dominant side without ER/IR imbalances; and higher injury risk was associated with imbalanced muscular strength profile.