81 resultados para Straight and Reverse Problems of Data Uncertainty


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We have developed a processing methodology that allows crosshole ERT (electrical resistivity tomography) monitoring data to be used to derive temporal fluctuations of groundwater electrical resistivity and thereby characterize the dynamics of groundwater in a gravel aquifer as it is infiltrated by river water. Temporal variations of the raw ERT apparent-resistivity data were mainly sensitive to the resistivity (salinity), temperature and height of the groundwater, with the relative contributions of these effects depending on the time and the electrode configuration. To resolve the changes in groundwater resistivity, we first expressed fluctuations of temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data as linear superpositions of (i) time series of riverwater-resistivity variations convolved with suitable filter functions and (ii) linear and quadratic representations of river-water-height variations multiplied by appropriate sensitivity factors; river-water height was determined to be a reliable proxy for groundwater height. Individual filter functions and sensitivity factors were obtained for each electrode configuration via deconvolution using a one month calibration period and then the predicted contributions related to changes in water height were removed prior to inversion of the temperature-detrended apparent-resistivity data. Applications of the filter functions and sensitivity factors accurately predicted the apparent-resistivity variations (the correlation coefficient was 0.98). Furthermore, the filtered ERT monitoring data and resultant time-lapse resistivity models correlated closely with independently measured groundwater electrical resistivity monitoring data and only weakly with the groundwater-height fluctuations. The inversion results based on the filtered ERT data also showed significantly less inversion artefacts than the raw data inversions. We observed resistivity increases of up to 10% and the arrival time peaks in the time-lapse resistivity models matched those in the groundwater resistivity monitoring data.

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Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.

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BACKGROUND: The purpose of the optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) research group project is to establish an individual patient-level database from high quality studies of ONSD ultrasonography for the detection of raised intracranial pressure (ICP), and to perform a systematic review and an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA), which will provide a cutoff value to help physicians making decisions and encourage further research. Previous meta-analyses were able to assess the diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography in detecting raised ICP but failed to determine a precise cutoff value. Thus, the ONSD research group was founded to synthesize data from several recent studies on the subject and to provide evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography in detecting raised ICP. METHODS: This IPDMA will be conducted in different phases. First, we will systematically search for eligible studies. To be eligible, studies must have compared ONSD ultrasonography to invasive intracranial devices, the current reference standard for diagnosing raised ICP. Subsequently, we will assess the quality of studies included based on the QUADAS-2 tool, and then collect and validate individual patient data. The objectives of the primary analyses will be to assess the diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography and to determine a precise cutoff value for detecting raised ICP. Secondly, we will construct a logistic regression model to assess whether patient and study characteristics influence diagnostic accuracy. DISCUSSION: We believe that this IPD MA will provide the most reliable basis for the assessment of diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography for detecting raised ICP and to provide a cutoff value. We also hope that the creation of the ONSD research group will encourage further study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number: CRD42012003072.

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Despite the development of many effective antihypertensive drugs, target blood pressures are reached in only a minority of patients in clinical practice. Poor adherence to drug therapy and the occurrence of side effects are among the main reasons commonly reported by patients and physicians to explain the poor results of actual antihypertensive therapies. The development of new effective antihypertensive agents with an improved tolerability profile might help to partly overcome these problems. Lercanidipine is an effective dihydropyridine calcium channel blocker of the third generation characterized by a long half-life and its lipophylicity. In contrast to first-generation dihydropyridines, lercanidipine does not induce reflex tachycardia and induces peripheral edema with a lower incidence. Recent data suggest that in addition to lowering blood pressure, lercanidipine might have some renal protective properties. In this review we shall discuss the problems of drug adherence in the management of hypertension with a special emphasis on lercanidipine.

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Islet-brain 1 (IB1) was recently identified as a DNA-binding protein of the GLUT2 gene promoter. The mouse IB1 is the rat and human homologue of the Jun-interacting protein 1 (JIP-1) which has been recognized as a key player in the regulation of c-Jun amino-terminal kinase (JNK) mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathways. JIP-1 is involved in the control of apoptosis and may play a role in brain development and aging. Here, IB1 was studied in adult and developing mouse brain tissue by in situ hybridization, Northern and Western blot analysis at cellular and subcellular levels, as well as by immunocytochemistry in brain sections and cell cultures. IB1 expression was localized in the synaptic regions of the olfactory bulb, retina, cerebral and cerebellar cortex and hippocampus in the adult mouse brain. IB1 was also detected in a restricted number of axons, as in the mossy fibres from dentate gyrus in the hippocampus, and was found in soma, dendrites and axons of cerebellar Purkinje cells. After birth, IB1 expression peaks at postnatal day 15. IB1 was located in axonal and dendritic growth cones in primary telencephalon cells. By biochemical and subcellular fractionation of neuronal cells, IB1 was detected both in the cytosolic and membrane fractions. Taken together with previous data, the restricted neuronal expression of IB1 in developing and adult brain and its prominent localization in synapses suggest that the protein may be critical for cell signalling in developing and mature nerve terminals.

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New stratigraphic data along a profile from the Helvetic Gotthard Massif to the remnants of the North Penninic Basin in eastern Ticino and Graubunden are presented. The stratigraphic record together with existing geochemical and structural data, motivate a new interpretation of the fossil European distal margin. We introduce a new group of Triassic facies, the North-Penninic-Triassic (NPT), which is characterised by the Ladinian "dolomie bicolori". The NPT was located in-between the Briançonnais carbonate platform and the Helvetic lands. The observed horizontal transition, coupled with the stratigraphic superposition of an Helvetic Liassic on a Briaçonnais Triassic in the Luzzone-Terri nappe, links, prior to Jurassic rifting, the Briançonnais paleogeographic domain at the Helvetic Margin, south of the Gotthard. Our observations suggest that the Jurassic rifting separated the Briançonnais domain from the Helvetic margin by complex and protracted extension. The syn-rift stratigraphic record in the Adula nappe and surroundings suggests the presence of a diffuse rising area with only moderately subsiding basins above a thinned continental and proto-oceanic crust. Strong subsidence occurred in a second phase following protracted extension and the resulting delamination of the rising area. The stratigraphic coherency in the Adula's Mesozoic questions the idea of a lithospheric mélange in the eclogitic Adula nappe, which is more likely to be a coherent alpine tectonic unit. The structural and stratigraphic observations in the Piz Terri-Lunschania zone suggest the activity of syn-rift detachments. During the alpine collision these faults are reactivated (and inverted) and played a major role in allowing the Adula subduction, the "Penninic Thrust" above it and in creating the structural complexity of the Central Alps.

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Due to various contexts and processes, forensic science communities may have different approaches, largely influenced by their criminal justice systems. However, forensic science practices share some common characteristics. One is the assurance of a high (scientific) quality within processes and practices. For most crime laboratory directors and forensic science associations, this issue is conditioned by the triangle of quality, which represents the current paradigm of quality assurance in the field. It consists of the implementation of standardization, certification, accreditation, and an evaluation process. It constitutes a clear and sound way to exchange data between laboratories and enables databasing due to standardized methods ensuring reliable and valid results; but it is also a means of defining minimum requirements for practitioners' skills for specific forensic science activities. The control of each of these aspects offers non-forensic science partners the assurance that the entire process has been mastered and is trustworthy. Most of the standards focus on the analysis stage and do not consider pre- and post-laboratory stages, namely, the work achieved at the investigation scene and the evaluation and interpretation of the results, intended for intelligence beneficiaries or for court. Such localized consideration prevents forensic practitioners from identifying where the problems really lie with regard to criminal justice systems. According to a performance-management approach, scientific quality should not be restricted to standardized procedures and controls in forensic science practice. Ensuring high quality also strongly depends on the way a forensic science culture is assimilated (into specific education training and workplaces) and in the way practitioners understand forensic science as a whole.

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Sequencing of pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) represents a reliable and cost-effective approach for estimating genome-wide SNP and transposable element insertion frequencies. However, Pool-Seq does not provide direct information on haplotypes so that, for example, obtaining inversion frequencies has not been possible until now. Here, we have developed a new set of diagnostic marker SNPs for seven cosmopolitan inversions in Drosophila melanogaster that can be used to infer inversion frequencies from Pool-Seq data. We applied our novel marker set to Pool-Seq data from an experimental evolution study and from North American and Australian latitudinal clines. In the experimental evolution data, we find evidence that positive selection has driven the frequencies of In(3R)C and In(3R)Mo to increase over time. In the clinal data, we confirm the existence of frequency clines for In(2L)t, In(3L)P and In(3R)Payne in both North America and Australia and detect a previously unknown latitudinal cline for In(3R)Mo in North America. The inversion markers developed here provide a versatile and robust tool for characterizing inversion frequencies and their dynamics in Pool-Seq data from diverse D. melanogaster populations.

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The genotyping of human papillomaviruses (HPV) is essential for the surveillance of HPV vaccines. We describe and validate a low-cost PGMY-based PCR assay (PGMY-CHUV) for the genotyping of 31 HPV by reverse blotting hybridization (RBH). Genotype-specific detection limits were 50 to 500 genome equivalents per reaction. RBH was 100% specific and 98.61% sensitive using DNA sequencing as the gold standard (n = 1,024 samples). PGMY-CHUV was compared to the validated and commercially available linear array (Roche) on 200 samples. Both assays identified the same positive (n = 182) and negative samples (n = 18). Seventy-six percent of the positives were fully concordant after restricting the comparison to the 28 genotypes shared by both assays. At the genotypic level, agreement was 83% (285/344 genotype-sample combinations; κ of 0.987 for single infections and 0.853 for multiple infections). Fifty-seven of the 59 discordant cases were associated with multiple infections and with the weakest genotypes within each sample (P < 0.0001). PGMY-CHUV was significantly more sensitive for HPV56 (P = 0.0026) and could unambiguously identify HPV52 in mixed infections. PGMY-CHUV was reproducible on repeat testing (n = 275 samples; 392 genotype-sample combinations; κ of 0.933) involving different reagents lots and different technicians. Discordant results (n = 47) were significantly associated with the weakest genotypes in samples with multiple infections (P < 0.0001). Successful participation in proficiency testing also supported the robustness of this assay. The PGMY-CHUV reagent costs were estimated at $2.40 per sample using the least expensive yet proficient genotyping algorithm that also included quality control. This assay may be used in low-resource laboratories that have sufficient manpower and PCR expertise.

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The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the socio-demographic as well as the health and psychiatric profiles of adolescents hospitalised for suicide attempt or overwhelming suicide ideation and to assess repetition of suicide attempt over a period of 18 months. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between April 2000 and September 2001, all patients aged 16 to 21 years admitted to the University Hospitals of Geneva and Lausanne for suicide attempt or ideation were included in the study. At this time (T0) semi-structured face to face interviews were conducted to identify socio-demographic data, mental health and antecedents regarding suicidal conducts. Current psychiatric status was assessed with the MINI (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Instrument). At T1 and T2, reassessments included psychiatric status (MINI) as well as lifestyles, socio-professional situation and suicidal behaviours. RESULTS: At T0, 269 subjects met the study criteria, among whom 83 subjects (56 girls and 27 boys) left the hospital too quickly to be involved or refused to participate in the study (final sample at T0: 149 girls; 37 boys). The participation rate at T1 and T2 was respectively 66% and 62% of the original sample. The percentage of adolescents meeting the criteria for psychiatric diagnoses (91%) was high: affective disorder (78%); anxiety disorder (64%); substance use disorder (39%); eating disorder (9%); psychotic disorder (11%); antisocial personality (7%) with most subjects (85%) having more than one disorder. Around 90% of the subjects interviewed at T1, and/or T2, had received follow-up care after their hospitalisation, either by a primary care physician or a psychotherapist or both. Two subjects died of violent death and 18% made a further suicide attempt. CONCLUSION: Most adolescents hospitalised for suicidal episodes suffer from psychiatric problems which should be addressed by a careful psychiatric assessment, followed up if needed by a structured after care plan.

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Background Most research has focused on mothers¿ experiences of perinatal loss itself or on the subsequent pregnancy, whereas little attention has been paid to both parents¿ experiences of having a child following late perinatal loss and the experience of parenting this child. The current study therefore explored mothers¿ and fathers' experiences of becoming a parent to a child born after a recent stillbirth, covering the period of the second pregnancy and up to two years after the birth of the next baby.MethodIn depth interviews were conducted with 7 couples (14 participants). Couples were eligible if they previously had a stillbirth (after 24 weeks of gestation) and subsequently had another child (their first live baby) who was now under the age of 2 years. Couples who had more than one child after experiencing a stillbirth and those who were not fluent in English were excluded. Qualitative analysis of the interview data was conducted using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis.ResultsFive superordinate themes emerged from the data: Living with uncertainty; Coping with uncertainty; Relationship with the next child; The continuing grief process; Identity as a parent. Overall, fathers' experiences were similar to those of mothers', including high levels of anxiety and guilt during the subsequent pregnancy and after the child was born. Coping strategies to address these were identified. Differences between mothers and fathers regarding the grief process during the subsequent pregnancy and after their second child was born were identified. Despite difficulties with bonding during pregnancy and at the time when the baby was born, parents' perceptions of their relationship with their subsequent child were positive.ConclusionsFindings highlight the importance of tailoring support systems not only according to mothers' but also to fathers' needs. Parents¿, and particularly fathers', reported lack of opportunities for grieving as well as the high level of anxiety of both parents about their baby's wellbeing during pregnancy and after birth implies a need for structured support. Difficulties experienced in bonding with the subsequent child during pregnancy and once the child is born need to be normalised.